ramssuperbowl99

Fangraphs with some interesting comments: My first reaction to the package coming to Kansas City was: Really, that’s it? Clearly the asking price dropped a lot in the past 48 hours. This is certainly quantity over quality. There are no can’t miss prospects and no blue-chip, young stars. You have a raw, potential No. 2 or 3 starter, an eighth- or ninth-inning reliever, a slick-fielding, light-hitting infielder, and a speedy centerfielder with contact issues. I would rather have infielder Brett Lawrie, whom Milwaukee recently sent to Toronto for pitcher Shaun Marcum, than any of the four players in the Greinke deal. I think they're right. You aren't supposed to get top 10 pitchers without giving up All Star, blue-chip caliber players. We didn't do that here. I have no idea how this can be anything but a huge win for Milwaukee.

That is odd. Because Gennett is nowhere near MLB ready maybe 2 years at the earliest but I would have to say he would be 3 or 4 years away.He's doing the Brewers' Top 11 right now and must have Gennett as the 11th prospect. Odorizzi not being in it bumped everybody up a spot.

In the long term, we will undoubtedly feel the absence of Escobar/Cain/Odorizzi. In the short term, however, we won't at all. As much as Escobar gives us a long term hole to fill in SS. But -20 BRAA is essentially replaceable by any good member of BFnet. His defense, highly praised, was underwhelming both from the scouting and saber front. As much as we expected him to improve this upcoming season, he was flirting with replacement level. Nothing a cheap fix like Edgar Renteria won't cover. Cain played really well in limited time, but his innings were far too low to make a major impact. I'd also like the say that it was a good move selling high on Cain. This time last year, he wasn't on anyone's radar. Now he's headlining a deal for one of the top 8 or so pitchers in baseball. I don't see how his value could reasonably get that much higher. Odorizzi's impact wasn't felt at all at the MLB level. And if Marcum/Greinke are extended, his absence isn't that noticeable. Not with several capable arms (even if they aren't outstanding) in Heckathorn, Peralta, Rogers and Scarpetta. Jeffress is probably a bullpen arm. With Axford under contract and a great selection of capable arms between the above 4 that don't make the rotation, our MLB bullpen, and our AAA options, I'm not worried. Also, and I can't stress this enough, we get Greinke quotes year round.

The 87 win mark is the "true talent" level. Or, if we played the season through 100 times, we'd average 87 wins provided we stay healthy. We could win 82 games or 92 games next year.Right, but a rotation of Yo-Marcum-Wolf-Blanton-Narveson doesn't make the Brewers an 87-win talent level team. Probably more like 83.Why not? Before improvements that we can expect by Marcum leaving the AL East, Wolf rebounding (somewhat) and Blanton leaving the NL East, we made a 6 WAR improvement by not pitching Suppan, by pitching Narveson more, and by acquiring Marcum/Blanton to fill out the rotation. We also improve our position players. Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder likely cancel each other out based on regression for Hart/Weeks and improvement for Braun/Fielder. Carlos Gomez not getting ABs improves the club substantially, as does (hopefully) improved performances from Alcides Escobar, Jonathan Lucroy and Lorenzo Cain. Finally, the back end of our bullpen is miles better. Trevor Hoffman blew 5 games in the first 2 months of the season. That's legendarily bad. John Axford's presence turns 3-5 of those games into victories. Adding all of this up, and starting from the 77 wins we had in 2010, it's entirely possible that Axford wins us 3 more games, the rotation wins us 6, and we get another isolated win or two from the position players. That's 87. Obviously that isn't the most scientific analysis, but the Brewers should be markedly improved come 2011. Add in fairly substantial regression from the Cardinal's rotation (check out those ERA-ERA predictor splits), and regression from the entire Reds team, and the Brewers are a good bet to be top 3 in the Central and have a shot at the whole enchilada.

Why is Wolf "expected" to rebound? He's in his mid 30s, pitchers don't normally rebound in their mid 30s. The scientifically proven "can he really be any worse" logic. Seriously though, could Randy Wolf actually be worse in 2011?

IMO, if the team doesn't look like it could reasonably win 90, there's not much of a point in hanging on to Fielder.The 87 win mark is the "true talent" level. Or, if we played the season through 100 times, we'd average 87 wins provided we stay healthy. We could win 82 games or 92 games next year. Also, as for the Dave Bush comparisons:Dave Bush: 2007 - 5.12 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 4.36 xFIP2008 - 4.18 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 4.63 xFIP2009 - 6.38 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 4.79 xFIP2010 - 4.54 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 4.98 xFIP Joe Blanton:2007 - 3.95 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 4.05 xFIP2008 - 4.69 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 4.69 xFIP2009 - 4.05 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 4.07 xFIP2010 - 4.82 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 4.06 xFIP Not even close. Blanton is worlds better than Bush, the only reason his ERA is high is because he's spent the past few years pitching in a bandbox.

Joe Blanton's 2009 and 2010 xFIP are 4.06 and 4.07 respectively. That's actually really, really solid for a 4th starter. WAR isn't necessarily the best way to evaluate pitchers, here is the 2010 WAR per 200 IP for each pitcher for a possible 2011 Brewers rotation: Yovani Gallardo - 5.0Shaun Marcum - 3.6Joe Blanton - 2.2Chris Narveson - 2.0Randy Wolf - 0.6Total - 13.4 This doesn't include a substantial boost from Marcum's transition from the AL East to the NL Central, Blanton's fluky FIP-xFIP split, Randy Wolf's expected rebound, etc. etc. For comparison's sake, the Brewers' 2009 staff was worth 7.7 WAR. 13.4 WAR is worth more than Tampa Bay's 2009 rotation, New York's 2009 rotation, and the Red's 2009 rotation. Essentially, those 6 more wins per year puts the Crew at 83 wins, plus any increased production in CF with Gomez getting replaced by Cain, plus better performances from Escobar and Lucroy, plus a better back-end bullpen situation with Axford closing instead of Hoffman. At this point, 87 wins isn't out of the question, which puts us with an outside shot at the Central.

Who said unable to develop talent? No one, but generally when teams have a bad minor league system it's a bad thing - think Houston circa 2008. The Brewers have developed enough talent that it's hard for me to say that us being in the lower 3rd of MiLB systems is horrific.

Calling Rogers a 4 or a 5 isn't really accurate - it's just the sum of 2 possible outcomes. There are 2 likely scenarios for Rogers:1. He fixes his mechanical issues, repeats his delivery better and gets the walks under control enough to become a #3 or a #2 in the big leagues. How long he pitches in this scenario is an obvious question mark, but at least he would contribute a fair bit of value to the Brewers.2. He doesn't fix those issues, the walks don't improve, and he becomes a bullpen arm (essentially worth very little to the organization). Or he gets hurt again and has to call it a career. I doubt he ever gets enough command and enough innings per season to be considered a legitimate #1, but he could be a #2 if everything breaks right.

He wasn't drafted by the Brewers, but he spent 200 IP in the Brewers minor league system before making his major league debut. Though he did have a cup of coffee with the Cardinals, I'd consider him a Brewers' farm system product.

When you look at it though what are they saying about each individual? There is Odorizzi at the top who might be a #2-3. Then a bunch of guys who are either #3's or relievers and one possible impact bat who didn't hit very well at A ball. There is a lot of depth and it should keep us from having to pursue mid level pitchers but little impact talent. We still have no idea what to expect from Jeffress. He would still have to learn better control to be a good starter and hasn't started a game in well over a year so he is a huge question mark. I am not trying to be negative but there is just very few p[layers who I would look forward to replacing any of our MLB players without a dip in production. You know, people look at a bad farm system ranking and think that it's somehow a bad thing. It's not necessarily a bad thing at all. Our system is bad because in the past year we graduated John Axford, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Lorenzo Cain, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Narveson and others that I'm neglecting. We also used Brett Lawrie to acquire a #1 starter and got a fluke 1st round non-signing. If you take away 70% of a team's top 10, they are going to be a bad system. But look at what that has given us:7 of our 8 position players are homegrown. The only non-homegrown player was a waiver claim.3 out of our 5 projected starters (Gallardo, Narveson, Rogers) are homegrown. Another was gotten by trade. Only 2 significant players on the whole team are free agents. Of course our system is depleted! That would even deplete the Royals system right now! I'd also like to add that, although this isn't a great system (I'd have them around 20 overall), it compliments the Brewers' style really well. 1 great pitching prospect at the top, and then alot of guys who can fill out the back-end of a rotation or maybe make a move to the bullpen. Lots of catching depth in the bottom and a few decent position prospects. That's perfect. If Weeks is extended, the only position player who we have to worry about replacing in the next 3 years is Prince Fielder (who Mat Gamel or a Fielder-trade type prospect could do). Melvin always struggles bringing in lame back end starters for too much money and has an infatuation with old "defensive" catchers who can't hit. Our system solves both of those problems. Melvin also likes to buy mediocre relievers coming off of small sample based "career years". There won't be any room for them if our system develops. Obviously I'd rather have a dynamite system filled to the brim with minor leaguers, but let's not confuse "bad minor league system" with "unable to develop talent". You couldn't name 5 teams more reliant on their MiLB system the past 4 years than Milwaukee.

It appears the Brewers have already started negotiating with Marcum http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/brewers-have-had-extension-talks-with-marcum.html If a 2 year commitment can be extended, that means the Brewers have a preliminary 1-2 for up to 4 years. Alot to like there.

I still think Prince Fielder + salary relief could get us some combination of Garza and prospects. The Rays go for it and free up and expensive spot in their rotation while adding the impact bat they need, and the Brewers get the pitching relief they want.

If they're looking at Franceour and Melky Cabrera, I see no reason why they wouldn't look at Gomez. Not sure what kind of player we'd even get back, if we even get something besides cash considerations.

Perhaps. Has Scott Boras come out with a figure that Prince would want? I'm assuming the recent Jayson Werth, Mark Teixeria, and Adrian Gonzalez (?) deals have pretty much put Prince in the $140-$160 M category, but I'd still like to see something from the Fielder camp other than dignified silence.

Just a general question - if they didn't talk about a Fielder deal then what did they talk about? McPhail: "I really like Prince. He has that sweet tattoo on his neck."Melvin: "It looks really good with my mustache when we take pictures together." That part of GM talks always has me confused.

Should the Brewers forfeit 2011? In a word, yes. Focus on 2012/2013, when we have a legitimate chance to see fruits from the development of some players. As it stands right now, the Brewers have every key non-Fielder piece extended or in a position to be extended past 2013. They have a farm system that is deep in pitching. They have a top position prospect. As for the "window closing", it's closed. If this was 2008, I could see talk about the window closing, but we haven't been legitimately competitive since we lost Sabathia and Sheets. Anyone who thinks this team is someone different or that our bullpen is going to make up those 15 wins of production that we need is kidding themselves. Listen to your needs: 2 pitchers - 1 of which is a #1/#2 type and the other of which is a "#4 with upside" (translation - a #3). That won't happen. And even if it does, we aren't good enough defensively to take advantage of a good pitching staff, not with Fielder playing 1B, Hart playing RF, Braun playing LF, and McGehee playing 3B. If we win 80 games next season, I'll be pleasantly surprised. We just aren't that good. Go shop Fielder. Find a stopgap to keep butts in the seats. Get some upside prospects, and hope that somebody becomes Robin to Yovani's Batman. Extend Weeks and groom Lawrie to play 3B. Move McGehee to first full time when the time comes. Let Lucroy/Escobar/Cain/Rogers develop, and start Jeffress/Axford as the 8th and 9th inning guys. Draft pitching this season, and let the farm fill out the obvious gaps this current roster has.

Wait a minute...you think we can compete in 2011? Maybe if Randy Wolf wins the Cy Young. Fact is, this team is competing for 2012, and more realistically 2013. Melvin's insistence on MLB ready pitching is killing Fielder's trade value. I'd rather get a guy with true #1 upside than settle for another soft-tossing #4 that Melvin has been so partial to in his career. Fielder is worth a few million above his performance this season, in all likelihood, so unless we increase that value by paying his salary, we aren't going to see the prospects we want. Keeping Fielder and taking the draft picks is completely asinine, so we need to go and get as much upside as we possibly can as soon as we can.

Honestly we should be looking to pay most of Fielder's salary if we trade him. As long as the return is good.Absolutely. We won't get much of a return if we trade Fielder and don't negate at least 50% of his estimated $15 M salary.

Gonzalez has more value than Fielder for a few reasons. 1. He's a AL 1B, unlike Fielder2. He's under contract for something like $8-10 M cheaper.3. Teams like his body type better.4. He's posted similar wOBAs to Fielder despite playing in Petco Park. 5. He appears to be more willing to talk about an extension than Prince. If the Brewers throw in most of Fielder's salary, they should be looking for a relatively similar package, but Fielder straight up does not have the same value as Gonzalez.

Great site and great work. Stuff like this is always appreciated! And nice calls with Heckathorn and Davis in the thread. If I ever need to know who the Brewers are taking in the sandwich round, I'll just ask. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

This actually gives me even more hope that the Brewers might actually be one of his acceptable destinations. We shall see. Something that you might not want to overlook is that Greinke loved being a position player (he was a SS in the minors I believe) and still loves to hit. See the above quotes if you don't believe me. Being able to hit for an NL team might be a draw for him.

By the way, I can't see a Greinke thread going 7 or 8 pages without some good old fashioned Greinke quotes from the Kansas City Star: 10. "I could hit me if someone were on base. It wouldn't be easy, but I could do it. If no one were on base, I wouldn't care as much, so I could get me out." 9. Upon hearing then-GM Allard Baird was going to watch him throw: "And you're gonna be impressed," 8. "I'd say the average person wouldn't eat a Chipotle burrito and still do his running, full speed, like me. That's why they call me special." 7. "I was giving Brian Bannister all the credit for being the best-hitting pitcher on the team, until today. Now, I've got my confidence back. They're throwing me sliders, and it doesn't matter." 6. "For the first month of the season, (Billy Butler) has definitely been an above-average first baseman. That's hard for me to say because I never thought anyone would say that but him and his family." 5. Two years ago, with Alex Gordon struggling, Greinke pulled him into the video room to show him a clip of Greinke hitting his home run. "In case you forgot," Greinke said, "this is what a home run looks like." 4. "Nice effort by the defense. They didn't get tired of running after balls to the wall. I was pretty impressed by that." 3. To Jeremy Affeldt after Affeldt gave up a homer on what he thought was a good pitch. "Really, I went back to the clubhouse and looked at the pitch on video. It was a really bad pitch. Right over the middle of the plate, and you got it up. I mean it was a bad pitch." Affeldt: "Thanks, Zack." Zack: "Right down the middle. I could have hit it out." Affeldt: "Thanks, Zack." Zack: "Yeah." 2. On making the Sports Illustrated cover: "There's a lot more interesting stuff going on right now. They should have something else on the cover. Playoff basketball or something else. So it's a mistake. They'll probably sell their least amount of magazines in a long time -- except when NASCAR was on the cover." 1. On hoping President Obama would cuss him out at the All-Star game: "Because none of the White Sox guys like me. So I was hoping that he'd recognize me and be like, 'You punk, I hate you.' But he didn't do that." EDIT: There is one that the guy didn't report that I found. This was Greinke's reaction to Jennifer Aniston and Brad Pitt's breakup: "She's way more big-time than me. She's pretty old too. I cried in my bed moaning, 'Why? Why did this have to happen?'"

Who is this Zach Greinke guy? I'd rather go get C.D. Sabathia, Z.J. Burnett or Thomas Lincecum. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P One thing for a topic on a forum, but TH just spelled the name of the 2009 Cy Young award winning pitcher wrong. One thing of note, Greinke has a list of 8-10 teams that he can block a trade to. With the publicity about how many pitchers have Milwaukee listed on their NTC, it's certainly a significant possibility that we are on there. Especially if he wants to go somewhere where he can "win now".

I'd think so too, then you see Dan Haren dealt for a package headlined by Joe Saunders and the Arizona GM citing Saunders' win total. Obviously we wouldn't be hoodwinking Theo Epstein or Billy Beane, but Ed Wade, Brian Sabean, Omar Minaya - I'd say we could fleece those kind of guys. EDIT: Another glaring example is the Howard extension. Amaro Jr. cited Howard's RBI totals and defended them even when told he is a product of Utley and Co.