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umphrey

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Everything posted by umphrey

  1. I don't want them to sell on 2015 if that's where this is headed. Keep Gomez, compete for 1 more year, take the arbitration pick then punt on 2016 which really looks like a down period for the Brewers.
  2. If they trade Gallardo for Shields, a massive contract and a couple of non elite prospects that will be a huge mistake. Texas could just sign Shields but it looks like they chose not to because it's risky.
  3. I'm surprised at some of those pitchers. I would have expected Kodi or Lopez over Williams/Williams/Wang. I have high expectations for Lara and Gatewood looks like Roache 2.0
  4. Let's not kid ourselves and pretend Stanton isn't elite. He is. I don't see a lot of risk with a 25 year old proven outfielder. The big question to me is whether or not the Marlins are ever going to increase payroll enough to win anything. A lot of good, small payroll teams would have traded him just because it's too much of a chunk out of their payroll.
  5. No idea how he managed to walk 10% of the time with no power. Don't expect that to continue. Was glad to see him do well last year but don't expect him to last long.
  6. WAR is an Accumulating Stat. 32 Starts will accumulate more vs. a SP with 8-18starts. Jose Fernandez had a 1.1WAR season in 8 starts. Far superior to Yo's if stretched to 32 starts. Gio Gonzalez had identical WAR in 5 less starts. Jorge Dela Rosa had identical WAR while having to pitch in Coors Field. Andrew Cashner 19Starts 1.9WAR. Hyun-Jin Ryu 1.9WAR in 26starts. Josh Beckett 1.9WAR in 20 starts. Tyler Matzek 1.9WAR in 19starts for Colorad. Vance Worley, Tsuyoshi Wada, Gerrit Cole, Jesse Hahn, Mat Latos, Cliff Lee, Gavin Floyd, Bronson Arroyo All NL only names that were on pace or ahead of pace with Yo's WAR value if they made 32Starts. 15 more names makes a 43rd in NL WAR which is identical to my 43rd in ERA if looking up non-qualified ERA SPs in the NL. Theres at least 6 more SP prospects who are looking to graduate to ML rotations in 2015 that would appear to be Yo's equal or better. I just see no reason to hang on to him for his pricetag. That QO after 2015 will likely fall in the 15.5-16.1mil range. Trade him while you can for some kind of future value now, vs. relying on that. Again, the upside isn't there anymore for Yo. He peaked a few years ago and has been declining for 2 seasons now. Why not talk with the Cubs. They are all-in to win 2015. See if that Magic turn scrubs in to SP ACEs will work with Yo. See if you can nab Arismendy Alcantara perfect Switch hitting 2b/SS to play every day platooning Gennett and Segura. Offer them up someone else (Davis,Thornburg,Smith,Henderson,Schafer?)if you can land their 1b prospect Dan Vogelbach which would solve 2 problem areas for a lengthy period of time. Health is a skill. Gallardo has thrown 180 innings for 7 years straight. Every year there will be some awesome young pitchers with great sliders and Gallardo has proven to be more valuable than them by not getting hurt.
  7. 28th in NL WAR, so pretty much a 2 or a 3. On the open market I think he would have no problem getting the Garza contract which was the same $ amount but with a 4 year commitment.
  8. Our playoff odds are sitting at 53% http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx
  9. Going back to the Marcum trade, 3 years of Aramis is probably working out better than 6 of Lawrie.
  10. This would be kind of similar to what the Marlins did a year and a half ago which caused complete distrust between the fans and the management, made them a national punch line and caused a lot of empty stadiums. Except this would be way worse because the Marlins actually traded away average, over paid players and that's not what the Brewers have right now.
  11. on the plus side it's one less bullet point for Lucroy's agent when we are negotiating a contract in a couple years
  12. Gotta get Dave Denson into the top 20 as well. He's an 18 yr old that is playing above average in A ball this year. We went over slot to sign him.
  13. Clint Coulter got picked just as high as those guys and he's been mashing since then for the most part. Same story with Taylor. The rookies are 5-6-7-8 for me, probably Lara-Harrison-Medeiros-Gatewood.
  14. Ground out to short stop pretty much every time he's at the plate. He has to adjust his swing to get under the ball a bit.
  15. I can't believe how over rated Machado is in the national scene and they go as far to mention him as a future MVP. His 2014 triple slash is .229/.283/.336 and he plays 3B. Sure he plays good defense but no one is riding 3B defense to the playoffs. Move to SS and we can talk. Being young doesn't mean he's going to automatically improve until he's 27 especially now that he's in the majors.
  16. Arcia, Coulter and Taylor all destroyed rookie ball pitching. Gatewood, Medeiros and Harrison will hopefully have similar success but that wouldn't be reason enough to pass the 3 in A ball. It would be nice to see the farm system get to the point where we have 5-8 guys in the farm system that realistically could be MLB average players or better.
  17. It's pointless to have a well rested bullpen and be 10 games out in July so we should use them. I would like to see Weeks cut for an extra reliever though.
  18. We didn't miss out on much here. I'm happy with Reynolds and Thornburg.
  19. I don't think the market for him will be that strong no matter what he does. If he throws a sub 3.5 ERA I think he will get 4/60. He's probably still going to end up in the 3.75-4.00 range honestly, test the market and sign with the Brewers for 4/50.
  20. Wang looked good today. 2 IP, 3 hits, 0 ERs. Reynolds butchered a pair of weak grounders which went as hits, but he got out of it. The run was unearned because our LF lost it in the sun.
  21. The 2nd round draft pick probably didn't factor into the decision much at all. Here are the Orioles 2nd round draft picks since 1995: Chance Sisco (minors) C Branden Kline (minors) RHP Jason Esposito (minors) 3B Mychal Givens (minors) SS Xavier Avery (minors) OF *Ryan Adams (minors) 3B Nolan Reimold (minors) OF Brian Finch (minors) RHP Corey Shafer (minors) OF *Ben Knapp (minors) RHP Alex Hart (minors) RHP Sean Douglass (minors) RHP Brian Falkenborg (minors) RHP Chip Alley (minors) C A 2nd round pick doesn't have much value
  22. I would only trade with the Mariners if we can swoop in and get 1 player they don't have room for anymore. If it turns into a big trade with a lot of players moving, I'd rather not take out their garbage for them.
  23. I think the Mariners would be willing to trade Ackley, because he doesn't really have a real path for playing time and he isn't helping them much right now. I don't think they would do it without upgrading their MLB roster though. Khris Davis is who I would target if I were Seattle, because he can play a better left field than Ackley.
  24. If he has an injury there is a good chance we still sign him to a 1-2 year deal
  25. There are plenty of MLB teams that win with less payroll than us, we are just bad at it because we make short sighted moves and draft based on need.
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