bjamesw22

funny...because it seems to me that its thw other way around... How on Earth could I ever be pushing for Branyan to be tried as a leadoff guy if I didn't see the statistical side of baseball? I have no idea where you could possibly get your assumption from. I have OFTEN said that the statistical side of baseball is important to understand. But stats are just another tool to use when making decisions...not the ONLY tool to use. Stats are great supplementary figures...but there are many isolated situations where stats need to be thrown out the window. Because within game situations you are talking more about "how many times in 10 will a coin be heads" as opposed to "how many times in 1,000,000 will a coin be heads". The first instand could easily be 7-3 whereas the second instance would never be 700,000-300,000. I will not go into a whole discussion on what kinds of situations, etc. because I think you get what I'm coming from. I would never say that stats are dumb, but I think some people here go WAY too far in saying what they actually measure.

Given the records of our opponets here on out, I'll predict 79-83 as the final record. You looked at the records and THEN came to that conclusion? That the Brewers would play less than .500 the rest of the way only playing 2 teams with a winning record? I am going to say they will go 83-79. I just can't believe that chart. There is only a 41.2% chance that the Brewers will play 3 games better than .500 the rest of the way with the schedule they have left? I would be willing to go out on a limb and say the Brewers have one of the top 5 easiest schedules in MLB the rest of the way.

I'm as sceptical about some of the stats around as anyone, but could we call off the witch hunt and just discuss them without throwing labels around. It's not the fact that stats are used...it's when they are used exclusively that it becomes a problem. Anything else that is said to effect these stats either way is considered "luck" or insignificant. As your signature tells, even the most statistically minded GM's realize that stats are not perfect and there IS another element to the game. I think where people, including myself, get defensive is when that part of the game is said to be so insignificant that it doesn't matter. That part of the game happens to be something that traditionalists call common baseball knowledge it is like telling people that everything they've ever learned about the game is false. And I'm not trying to single out rluzinski but this is an example: And when you are told that because you can't measure certain elements of the game that they don't matter it becomes frustrating because there ISN'T a way to measure it. So if you are not statistically "sold" you are said to be wrong by some because what you are trying to argue what cannot be quantified. And the MOST frustrating part is that people on the traditionalist side can at least see and understand the use of the statistical side. Very few "stat guys" see, understand, or accept the other side. The major criticism I've always heard is, "They score 6 runs one days and 2 the next." And I agree with this criticism. You cannot say that consistency is not important. The thing is, a team that is inconsistent has a greater chance to deviate from their Pythagorean Theorem. You could possibly have team like the Washington Nationals or an even more extreme version of the Brewers even if the talent levels on both teams are exactly the same. An extremely talented team can still be inconsistant in bad situations and still perform so well when they are being consistent that they will still perform at or above their Pythagorean Theorem whereas if a team like the Brewers does the same thing they will produce at or below theirs.

I am lacking a non-vulgar approach to describe my displeasure for Bill Hall playing over JJ. Just look at the ESPN game logs for the two players from July-September. Bill Hall as I predicted WAY BACK in May would return to being...Bill Hall. A sub .730 OPS SS with substandard defense. JJ Hardy hit a .800+ OPS in July, and put up a .680 OPS in August after recieving sporadic playing time over half the month after a slow start to the month (which Bill Hall played equally bad) and bounced back to put up a respectable OPS after being under .500 for 3/4 of the month. And I know it's been only a 1/4 of the way through September, but Bill Hall is being...Bill Hall (sub .650 OPS) and JJ is tearing it up. This is just as bad as Magruder having a roster spot right now.

But again, this doesn't predict what WILL happen, it's just telling us that with the stats that teams already have that the numbers come out. When these "stats" predict how a composition of players would perform together then they would mean something. Until then, they are useless stats that do nothing more than tell you what you should already know about the team based on their performance. I am perfectly comfortable saying that if I was able to look at a 5 year history of these stats, that I could visually look at a new set of stats of a team and get within 5-10% of what their actual runs scored were. So what did these stats tell me? Nothing that I couldn't have pretty much figured out myself.

SABR is the rule. Computers will be taking over the clubhouse by 2009. Didn't you know?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif

I've said it over and over for the last year and a half. Ned Yost is NOT the manager of the future for this team. He was a good manager to keep heads up during the rough times...but we need a manager that knows how to use a bullpen and his bench players. He seems to have a little Dusty Baker in him. There is absolutely NO excuse for Prince not starting 2 times per week. There is absolutely NO excuse for JJ Hardy not starting every game at SS. There is NO excuse for bums like Helling, Santos, and Oby to be making starts when we have Eveland, Capellan, Lehr, and Sarfate all waiting their turns to show what they have in that role. Heck, I'd even rather see JDLR start and throw 100 pitches in 4 innings than see those guys out there. Give the kids some alternating starts for Heaven's sake. Yost just doesn't use his noodle sometimes.

Has anyone else noticed that Tony Gwynn Jr. has quitely drawn 72 walks this year so far and has an OBP of .371? His OPS is over .700 in the Southern League, not good, but not horrible I guess. If he could only find the gaps a litte more...

I agree. Come on Mark, keep it rolling so you have something to build off of for the start of next year. Come out with a chip on your shoulder. Let us see you string together 3 good starts in a row to end this season.

MUCH better line from Mark Rogers. Still a little concerned about the number of walks given up but I guess it's kind of expected from a kid that young throwing so hard. I hope he can string 2-3 consecutive starts like this in a row before the season ends. It'd be an excellent carry over to next season! That a boy Mark!

Good points Brett.

...or the Brewers winning however many in a row last year.

Good point Russ. And I think seeing as our goal was to finish the year at .500 or better and it's being showed we have a pretty darn good chance. Talk about an improvement from last year! I think another thing you would agree with would be that it's going to be much harder to get to a level where we are a playoff contender/division winner consistently as opposed from starting off mediocre and getting to where we are now.

Except for the fact that I'm NOT a Yost supporter at all, but recently have agreed with and been an apologist for his in-game strategy. But this was just stupid.

bjames, my aforementioned post was in response to "you obviously don't understand how to use a bench and bullpen." I think we have a glass house situation here. Which was in response to your post: Take a night off from the know-it-all act and enjoy a victory. It really gets old.

Sorry bjames, but I might the only one who thinks it, but JDLR is only on the squad because he is out of options. He walks too many people, falls behind every other batter, and doesn't K enough batters to make up for it. Take a look at this thread and tell me I don't think EXACTLY the same thing that you do. JDLR Thread BUT, what better position are you going to find to put him in to get the work he so desperately needs?!? The kid hasn't pitched in SIX days! UGH!

Again, did anyone see what Jose Capellan was hitting on the radar? Was he at 94 or was he around 98?

And when Russ and I are actually agreeing with something...you KNOW something is up! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Well wisc, When you start challenging people and throwing out condescending comments like: I apologize if I was disagreeing with an expert. Then you're just asking to get ganged up on....trust me, I know.

I don't really care about JDLR not getting in, what good is it for him to pitch in a non-pressure situation. Well, it'd be different if Ned would use him in pressure situations. He just isn't being used at all, that's the problem. If there isn't a situation that you can put him in then he shouldn't be on the team because he's wasting a roster space.

I say it has nothing to do with Fielder getting an AB because who cares....it has to do with leaving your starter in to pitch another inning with absolutely NOTHING to prove after 95 pitches with a young guy sitting on your bench who hasn't pitched in 6 days.

I apologize if I was disagreeing with an expert. Doesn't take an expert to look at the amount of innings JDLR has pitched to see that the kid needs work. 10 run lead, absolutely NO positive that could possibly come out of Capuano staying in, 1 inning pitched in 6 days...didn't even take me 4 seconds after Cappy finished the 7th after 95 or so pitches to say..AWESOME, time to get JDLR some work. You'd think your manager would have the same common sense. I'm seriously this close to making my stay at BF.net a short one. (I don't expect anyone to care. Just saying.) Then why say it? There is negatives that can come out of a blowout victory...just like there are positives in a blowout loss.

Anyone see what Capellan is hitting on the stadium gun?

Is it the end of the world if Fielder doesn't bat or JDLR doesn't pitch tonight? Geez. Take a night off from the know-it-all act and enjoy a victory. It really gets old. Well, you obviously don't understand how to use a bench and bullpen to get young guys who get NO action in the game either. It reminds me of a high school football coach being up in a game 49-7 and won't put in his 3rd stringers to get SOME playing time during the year. EDIT: I would have thought that you of all people would be saying this to me. I was just with you the other night sticking up for one of Yosts moves....but THIS non-move was just plain moronic on Yosts part. What was the possible benefit of leaving Capuano in there? There wasn't one.

He K'd...buy hey, he saw 7 pitches! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif Helped us get to the bullpen quicker, wait.....