Thurston Fluff
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Everything posted by Thurston Fluff
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Don't get me wrong I think Peralta is going to be an very good pitcher. I just don't think he has earned a longer leash simply because he has better stuff. I think you are spot on that he hasn't learned to pitch yet. When he does he can help us a lot. Until he does not so much. If we had no alternative I could see going with the guy who has the best stuff. But we have alternatives. Why not use them?
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When we get ARam and Hart back it will be the first time in several years where we don't have a single black hole in the lineup. That could be scary good.
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Why should his stuff give him a longer leash? I don't care if he throws 110 with movement if he isn't getting anybody out he isn't helping.
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I hope it's true. We were told the benefit of these young guys was we had enough flexibility to shuffle them back and forth if they weren't performing well enough. Hopefully it puts Peralta on notice as well.
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my list is of players currently on the roster that the brewers drafted, not all time. I meant players that are on any major league roster not just our major league roster. IF we count every player who was drafted yy the Brewers, on any active roster in the majors today, that should give us some idea of how well the Brewers drafted overall. Presumably the average team should have 25 players in the majors. If we have more then more teams have done worse. If we have less than more teams have done better.
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my list is of players currently on the roster that the brewers drafted, not all time. Was your post in response to mine? If not I thought it was so ignore mine. If it was I meant players that are on any major league roster not just our major league roster. That way you can see what percent of our draft picks got to the majors in comparison to other teams. IF our team is good or bad at drafting and developing it should be representative in the number of overall players playing today. At least to some degree.
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Off the top of my head you missed at least Hardy, Escobar, Cain and Brantley. I'm sure I missed some as well. Add Lawrie to the list.
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True but I don't think there's a big connection with the neighborhood surrounding Lambeau as there is with Wrigley. I'm not so sure of that. The whole city of Green bay is about the same size. I've been to both and there is something cool about the wriggly bar scene but the people who live near it seemed less festive than the Lambeau residents are. I guess that was a long time ago when I was there with friends who lived near by. It was right around the time they started playing night games. The people I talked to really hated the idea of lights and night games back then so maybe that tempered my view of that connection. Lambeau is a carnival far beyond the parking lots. A lot of people in the residential neighborhood right by it host parties and sell parking space. I have never heard anyone say a negative thing about the hustle and bustle of living near the field. It's kind of a point of pride to live close to it. Then again there are only 8 games in Lambeau so it's a bit of apples and oranges.
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I remember in the bad old Bando days the Brewers had the least number of their drafted players playing anywhere in the majors. That, to me, was solid evidence that our system was bad. Today I don't think that is the case. If someone knows for sure we could probably rate how well our drafting has really been.
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Oxy it's bad enough our team sucks right now. Don't get me started on the flaws of replacement level. Lets just say my biggest beef is it tends to be used as someone we feel should be replaced not who is below a certain calculated performance rate. For example I can say we need to replace Narveson if we want to compete for a division title. Saying he needs to be replaced is not the same as saying his is replacement level. When someone says our minor league guys project as bench players they are really saying they project as more than replacement level players. After all most bench players get more than league minimum.
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That may be true. Morris to me was never as sure a shot as some here thought. He seemed a lot more like Green than Hart over the course of his minor league career. As far as development goes that is a valid question. Even if the team drafts well they still have to get those guys to develop. I have no idea how to assess that though so I won't try. The argument between drafting and developing is somewhat a chicken or egg thing. BTW wasn't trying to do a gottcha about naming only a couple guys. It's more that hyperbole runs rampant enough during bad stretches that we shouldn't add to them. Glad you got a chuckle out of the name. Being the first to compliment it you will always hold a special place in my heart. Well...not a special place really. More one of off the main drag behind some dumpsters. But a permanent one none the less.
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It's neat to say I've been to games there. It was never a problem walking up and buying Brewers-Cubs tickets at the window. I never got the myth of Wrigley always being sold out. But man, what a dump!!! Terrible sight lines, uncomfortable seats, and falling concrete That was my experience. That and the slight smell of urine that hung around my seat for some odd reason. Isn't it a national historic landmark? I know it was designated as eligible but don't remember if it ever became one? If it is they can't demolish it can they?
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Well, actually, you can say that about every minor league prospect. They may not pan out. But you shouldn't go from AA MVP to not being recalled when we desperately need a first baseman, because you suddenly can't hit. Fishy... You do if that was the best season the guy ever had and want to nurture that development. It really depends on whether they think he is ready nor not. I only counted him because he is considered a prospect and he is at AAA. You can leave him off the list and you still neglected to mention 3/5ths of the injured players when saying "Something must be wrong if we lose a Hart, a Ramirez, and the only corner infielder our minor leagues can feed us is a 30-year-old hack catcher like Blake Lalli."
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Maybe we are just using the term differently. This is a pretty good definition of what I think replacement level is. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/replacement-level/ I've always had problems with it. Not as a concept but of how it is used. It's used in a very vague way. It is a specific stat that Gives a baseline stat to combin with other stats to show actual performance. They may not be average but that doesn't mean they are worth no more than league minimum. If they are on your team you may want to upgrade from them. Which is what I personally think most people equate it to. But that desire to upgrade isn't the same as the player you have being totally useless.
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Yeah, but isn't Hunter Morris suddenly unable to hit the ball lately? In ST, he struggled mightily, which suggests his development has been blunted. He may or may not pan out. The point is they had 4 legitimate possibilities beyond Hart and Ramirez which you seemed to forget about when saying the brewer lost two guys and had to resort to a 30 year old hack catcher. Sadly three of the four got hurt as well. No team overcomes that without a serious drop off. When the CEILING of a prospect is a bench player or just barely starting caliber MLBer, they are basically worthless. It is much more likely they will turn into a below replacement level player than be a contributor of any kind. Replacement level is the most abused term in baseball. If replacement level is what any old AAAA player can be expected to produce it should be virtually impossible to be below that level. I think sometimes people conflate replacement level with league average. League average is far more valuable than replacement level. Their ceiling may not be anything more than average but any legitimate prospect should be better than replacement level. Even if they are not league average they should still be better than replacement level. If a lot of players are below replacement level league wide I suggest we rethink what replacement level really is.
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Something must be wrong if we lose a Hart, a Ramirez, and the only corner infielder our minor leagues can feed us is a 30-year-old hack catcher like Blake Lalli. Gamel, Green and Bianchi say hello. I doubt there is any team in the league capable of losing five infielders and not have to resort to the equivalent of a 30 year old backup catcher. The Brewers also have a pretty good possible replacement sitting in AAA if need be as well. I think he'd already be starting at first if Hart was gone all season.
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Gonzalez came in and gave up 3 runs without getting an out. You lose 95% of those games when you're down 3 in the 6th. You're down 7-4. 9 outs to go. Go to your long man. Period. I am not doing an I told you so but I think yesterday's game perfectly illustrates why this might not be as cut and dried as you thought. I don't know if that 95% was real or just used to illustrate your point but I think that sort of thing happens more than 5% of the time.
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Loe DFA'd by Seattle, claimed by Cubs
Thurston Fluff replied to chickinbrickin's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Didn't bother saying it since ti was so obvious. Judging someone off of 6 innings is just foolish. I think assuming he was judged off 6 innings is off base. He was being judged off what he did in the past as well as the appearance that little has changed. -
We WILL turn this thing around!
Thurston Fluff replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Time cures all. We aren't this bad. we aren't going to be this injured all season and we aren't going to have the worst bullpen all season. (though Ennder probably disagrees with that) I do say We. The team is introduced as your Milwaukee Brewers. They say it is our team when they need a new stadium or sell us tickets. I doubt the team has any issue with fans who identify so strongly with the team that they feel part of it. I think the team itself is happier with this arrangement than having us as outsiders who don't care...or pay, as much. -
I think you hit on why bullpen and bench management get so much attention. Whether the overall effect on wins is really most effected by that aspect of a manager is debatable. I'm not even sure if it can be objectively assessed to begin with. I question whether management of them is a cut and dried, one way is best for all situations, thing.
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Gonzalez came in and gave up 3 runs without getting an out. You lose 95% of those games when you're down 3 in the 6th. You're down 7-4. 9 outs to go. Go to your long man. Period. It doesn't matter who pitches, you limit the guys you use and keep your staff fresh. Again, if that was Narvy's job, you use him in those situations. If you're going to find out what you have, then you shouldn't end up without anyone to pitch 4 days later. Usually long men are used earlier than the 6th. That is why they are called long men. Mop up men are used when the game is out of hand. There is a difference. Who is the mop up man in our pen? At this point I'd say Axford. The other aspect that maybe you should take some time to consider is RRR has said the bullpen doesn't have defined roles yet. This is the snippet from the JSonline notes article today. How is he supposed to find out what roles players have if he doesn't use them to find out what roles they can fill? What better time to do that than early in the season when you have 13 pitchers on staff and plenty of off days sprinkled in?
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Baldkin you just proposed using the long man twice in a three game span. One of which when the team was only down three runs. If we go to the innings eating long man every time we have a three run deficit after the 6th inning how long will our long man last? Why not use your 8 man pen like you have an 8 man pen? Especially when you have it knowing you are going to be reducing it soon anyway? Why not find out who can do what when you have 13 pitchers?
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Mackostenke.
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Good point on the ERA+. I think a lot of people like this style of play but I really don't see a lot of comparisons to Tony LaRussa or anything close to genius status here. For myself I think communication is the main factor in managerial success over the long haul. How one uses a loogy is way down the list of importance for me. That is why I like RRR more than I liked Macha. That doesn't mean I hated Macha just that I like the traits of RRR better.
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I don't know how useful it is to treat the value of raw numbers in different season's as the same. Runs throughout the league were down last season. 683 runs per team compared to 701 in 2010 and 718 in 2009. That is why I compared each team to how it did vs other teams in the same season. I think that gives us more of an apples to apples comparison when looking at relative effectiveness. I think RRR's staff of 2011 somehow gets counted for the success of 2012. That simply isn't the case. The 2012 staff was terrible overall. As bad relative to other teams as Macha's staff. So why does Macha get a pass and RRR doesn't?