Thurston Fluff

Nolan Ryan had a career 526 win %. Does that mean he was only a slightly above average player?

Where we're diverging here is the way the numbers are being interpreted. I don't think Stetter's or DiFelice's opposing lines (BA/OB/SL/OPS) tell you, "This is what to expect, & is the player's talent level." I think they say, "Here's what this pitcher has done over an extraordinarily small amount of work", and have glaring problems in terms of what can be gleaned from them. I wasn't trying to use them to predict anything. I was responding to this part of your post. however, where I disagree in Stetter over DiFelice is that Mark provides more overall value, and has been a better MLB pitcher so far. If you're going to claim one has been a better MLB pitcher so far then it makes sense to use the stats available. The fact is Stetter has been better so far. Going forward maybe the only thing that counts is the K:BB but even then more needs to be taken into consideration than one stat. While his K rate is great I'd rather make sure it isn't at the cost of a lot of extra base hits against him before I just use that one stat to determine his worth. I'd much rather see a higher walk rate with a lot less power against him. The fact that he only has one walk all year could indicate one of two things. Either he's really that good or he doesn't know how to effectively use his control to avoid extra base hits. I'm just not sure which category he falls under yet. I don't think of DiFelice as a ROOGY since he's very capable of throwing more innings than just one. Funny because you thought Shouse was a loogy and he has better numbers vs RH than DiFleice has vs LH. I'm no better since I'm arguing the other side of the coin on DiFelice. Both get through innings primarily due to facing same handed hitters enough to survive the opposite handed hitter. The only real difference I see is Shouse keeps them from slugging at an unGodly high rate. DiFelice's numbers in the minors showed him having similar problems with power vs Lh in Nashville. In 14 IP vs LH he's only letting them hit at a .208 clip but given up 8 ER for a 5.14 ERA. That would indicate the same pattern of a lot of extra base hits to go along with that excellent 18:1 K:BB rate. My reasons for being skeptical of DiFelice going forward is because guys who give up a lot of extra base hits vs opposite handed hitters aren't going to be able to get out of innings unscored upon as often as those who just give up walks or singles to them IMHO. What we do 'know' about the two guys imo is that Mark's command has been fantastic in both the minors & in the bigs, while Mitch's command has been fine to good in the minors & poor (imho) in MLB (7.2 BB/9). Stetter has just not been hit very hard yet, but I don't think that will last with more IP, unless he's able to command his pitches better. I think we also know that Stetter has actually done better overall despite his control problems. I don't think it helps predict what will happen mind you. Just saying we know more than just one thing about them. If the time comes and Stetter does start to grove a few 3-0 fastballs and they get hit hard but his walk rate goes down does that really help make him better. Which to me is the problem with only looking at walk rates. They don't tell you much in a vacuum. What's troubling to me is that Yost/whoever feels the #2 lefty is more important than a pitcher that can handle the vast majority of opponent bats (righties) & help keep the rest of the 'pen fresh. if this is the real point then we agree sometimes too much is put on lefties in the pen. I'm not sure two lefties is too many but I see the point about extra long men. It should be pointed out though the only time we need two long men are if two starters get eaten alive in a row. Even then we have Mota and Riske who both can throw more than one inning. That means combined they can get at least four innings. Given the makeup of our pen I'm not so sure having two long men is more important than two lefties. What happens more often, a long man needed two days in a row or two situations in a game where a lefty could be used? One situation many times is a blowout the other usually an important moment in a close game. There are arguments to be made for both sides.

come on Homer any self respecting fan knows you can only project out ten years. It rather silly of you to be looking ahead to 2019 when so much will hinge on the 2018 free agent market.

I agree with the k:bb rate. I'm certainly not taking anyhting away from DiFelice. He's a great story and I hope to see him again. That said and ERA a full run better is something. The small samples aside I would much rather see Stetter in for a full inning when he has to face batters from both sides of the plate than DiFelice. His performance against LH is far worse than Shouse is against RH. Since there are very few roster spots open for Roogy's and this team has only one lefty it seems apparent that Stetter is the better option for the pen overall simply by the hand he throws with. The fact that he does indeed get them out at a very decent clip as well as hold his own against RH better than Difelice does against LH it shouldn't be considered a slam dunk DiFelice is better. Quite frankly I think just the opposite. I don't think you can just say his command is better without also acknowledging that he would sometimes be better served to walk a LH instead of letting him slug at a 1.053 clip. Is it better to grove a pitch instead of making a batter hit a pitcher's pitch just so the walks stay down? So far Difelice has not shown he can work around them instead of letting them us him as BP fodder. That probably has something to do with the ERA being a full run above Stetter's. I understand your perspective. I just don't agree it's obvious one is better than the other.

I disagree -- If a team should win 81 games, and they win 85 or 75, the first place I would look is at the manager. The highest projection I saw for the Brewers was 86 wins. the Brewers are on pace for 87 now and have already played the toughest part of their schedule. It will likely go up after the next ten game home stand against lesser teams. If they reach the all star break on a 90 or so win pace does that make Ned a decent manager so far this year?

however, where I disagree in Stetter over DiFelice is that Mike provides more overall value, and has been a better MLB pitcher so far. Stetter's ML stats so far 21.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, .157 BAA, 27/15 K:bb. His splits this year, which to me is more important for a lefty is vs. LH in 22abs .136 BAA, 321 OBP, .273 SLG, 594 OPS. vs. RH in 33 abs this year .182 BAA, .341 OBP, .333 SLG, .675 OPS. DiFelice's ML stats so far 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, .236 BAA, 16/0 K:BB. His splits this year vs. LH in 19 ab's, .421 BAA, .421 OBP, 1.053 SLG, 1.474 OPS. vs RH in 36 ab's, .139 BAA, .139 OBP, .194 SLG, .333 OPS. Aside from the K:BB I just don't see how Difleice has had the better major league career so far. Add into it the fact that one is 27 and the other a 32 year old career minor league journeyman and I just don't think you're being very fair to Stetter. Ned and Doug might just be right on this one.

Funny how sucking for an entire season takes precedent over sucking for 30 ABs or so, huh. When you add in expectations and position he plays it shouldn't be a shock. Especially when the guy whined about his paycheck then went out and put up very average numbers for his position. Those numbers look even worse when you add in the defense he provides. I swear half the errors on the team could be traced back to his inability to dig any ball out of the dirt. Hoover he aint.

Stetter vs Difleice is a much more interesting argument. The only thing DiFelice has going for him in that regard is his lack of walks. From my perspective Stetter has been viewed, perhaps unfairly, as the better prospect going forward but for this year there is a good argument to be made for DiFelice. One thing that is hard to argue is how valuable an extra lefty is to a well rounded bullpen. Maybe the best argument to be made for Stetter is he gets lefties out and DiFelise doesn't.

Yes, I do. There are several forms. Taking Yosts words and adding your own assumptions to make the comment look idiotic comes close enough for my liking. Not that it's all that important but adding false assumptions is not the same as straw man arguments. It is no more legitimate than a straw man argument since it draws false conclusions. A straw man is saying every one thinks the sky is green but it's not. adding false assumptions is taking the quote "some people think the sky is green," and claiming only a person who believes the sky is green would say that. Brawndo didn't do either of them since he was adding his opinion of why he felt Ned said that. I disagree with his conclusions. As I've stated earlier he left out at least one very viable option. I do agree adding the sarcastic "Gee I wonder which it is," does make it seem as though he was deliberately leading to a conclusion that fit his agenda. Making statements like that does make one wonder if he deliberately left out other options to make his conclusion stronger than it really was. So in that small sense he was making a bit of a strawman. But since this is really about Gagne and Difelice maybe this all belongs in the Yost thread or maybe PMing is the way to go. Heck maybe we should start a logic thread for this sort of thing in the off topic forum.

It certainly should be the prime factor in judging GM's. It should be considered in judging managers as well. We have to add in things like injuries and reasonable expectations along with them to judge actual abilities of them. When it comes to pitchers not so much. I never felt they should even count records for pitching.

When I pointed out that Yost said Shouse is no longer a situational lefty and that's a crazy thing to say Yost defenders have now informed me that I'm not take anything Yost says as important. actually you provided the quote then posted some stats that proved he was right to an extent and somehow tried to make it look as though he was an idiot for saying it. He has shown he can get through an inning facing a couple RH without getting scored upon. That, by definition, is more than a loogy. Even if he does struggle against RH he is more effective than DiFelice was who obviously is not a loogy. But, yes, taking what Ned says about a player on his team seriously is not going to tell us anything about what he really thinks of the player. I do think in some instances like this one there is more truth to his words than the usual player pimping he does. In this instance he is talking about what a player needs to do to improve. I think that type of comment is fundamentally different than the usual Ned quotes. Brawndo I can think of at least one more possibility. He could have seen what kind of pitches are effective for him and realized that is not going to cut it against LH. Sometimes visual evidence of a player can tell a trained eye more than a small number of stats can. Especially when those decisions have to be made with very little time for evaluation.

Sign me up for average Me too. But if we can get average for $10 million why pay $10,300,000? If Gagne is as good as DeFelice and we already have to pay Gagne it makes very little sense to pay them both. Not to mention if Gagne is as good then we can keep both of them. Then there is the ever present need other teams have for average relievers. I'd certainly hate to get rid of Gagne only to have the Cubs or Cards pick him up and have him shore up the middle relief situation for them. and then gets dumped back to AAA because some ex-roid guy is making $10 mil and the team feels a need to legitimize that expenditure and maybe get some sort of production out of him. If the only reason was to justify the money spent then I'd agree. As far as i can see there are three legitimate reasons to demote DeFelice to give Gagne every chance to succeed. I guess I'm willing to believe Melvin isn't just keeping him because of the money spent. But I'm usually the type of guy who is willing to give the benefit of a doubt.

The only reason that Gagne is getting the ball over DeFelice, is that Gagne is making $10M. DeFelice is pitching well, bumping him to roll the dice on Gagne makes no sense -- other than DM saving face. I agree with this for the most part. It is worth noting however the upside to Gagne is better than DeFelice. He has a much longer history of being an effective reliever in the majors. Most of that is tainted with PED's and injury but some of it was last year. DiFelice has not been able to put up the same numbers as Gagne did in Texas last year and was never really anything more than minor league fodder for his entire career until the small amount of time he's been in Milwaukee. It's nice to see him come in and not flop because it shows maybe he can help out some in the future but I still think Gagne can be better than DiFelice.

If Ned brings him along like he has Riske then he will be given every chance to prove he belongs without undue risk to winning games. I doubt his changed role hurt him in Boston like Melvin would have us believe so I'm not overly worried about the change in role effecting him now. If he can be average the Brewers will be better off with him than without.

personally I'm waiting for the "if we just play .500 baseball the rest of the year we'll win the division," Cub talk to start.

People are still predicting Ned being fired? Somehow I have a feeling Ned is safe. Maybe it's the winning record or something.

We picked up a game on the Cubs the last series even though we lost two of three.

They've played a total of six series at home against a team with a winning record at this point in the season. They lost three of those series.

How about the fact that Shouse has faced more right handed hitters than left handed hitters this year (52 vs 54)? Or last year(90 vs 103)? Overall his numbers this year are 1.98 ERA, .204 BAA, 11 holds, 2.38 K/BB, 6.26 K/9. In 07 he had 3.02 ERA, 21 holds, 2.29 K/BB, 6.04 K/9, and .257 BAA. That would be a sign that he has in fact been able to face as many RH as LH and still put up better than average numbers overall. If anything you've more or less proved just the opposite of Ned not knowing how to handle a bullpen. Yost has used a loogy so well that he has been able to use him successfully more than his abilities should allow. Hey, I'm not out to 'win' or anything -- just discuss & hope I can learn from doing so. Your objectivity is a welcome change from much of the discussion lately. Win might have been the wrong word. Convinced would have been a better choice. I will confess it was tough to admit though.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

He certainly showed some disrespect by not going to the office when asked by his boss. I have no doubt he knew he was in for a butt chewing for something. Given all that happened I suspect that something was attitude related. Since he chose to stay were he was he should have expected to be aired out right then and there. That doesn't mean Wade is blameless in this whole thing.

A team that won divisions year after year in the 90s compared to a team that still celebrates losing a World Series This is 2008 and the Brewers are far closer to contending than the Braves. So what if their history is better than ours. They no longer have the free spending Ted Turner and we no longer have the tightwad Seligs. If Ned goes there he replaces someone who had great teams and carved out a piece of history. He'll have to do that when the team is at it's lowest point in nearly two decades. He'd essentially be putting himself into a no win situation. if he does win he was supposed to. If he loses, and judging by their last couple years and age of their core players he will be, he's the one who couldn't compete with Cox. In Milwaukee if he gets back to the playoffs he'll be considered as the man who brought back one of the worst franchises in the game to a legitimate contender. His reputation around the league will certainly be better by winning with Milwaukee than the Braves.

The problem with this line of thinking is that a RP often inherits a runner, where a BB or single could be just as detrimental as a 2b or HR. In a perfect world I'd want them to all be Mariano Rivera. But you do have a point about the high OBP guys. I guess maybe the better way of putting it would be if the pen is made up of guys who all do something well then everybody doesn't have to do everything well. With the role Shouse has I think it better to allow a few base runners vs RH than too much power to them. TLB I pretty much concede your point about Shouse. You've made your arguement well and I'm man enough to admit it's better than mine. I still think trying to use a quote from Ned that Shouse is more than a strict loogy as evidence of how poorly he manages a bullpen is a little extreme. Shouse can reasonably be expected to get through an inning facing a couple RH along the way without getting scored upon. To me that is more than a loogy.

Thanks to management not being proactive with Sheets we will probably lose him. I guess Melvin thinks he can compete with the likes of Bush, Suppan, and McClung. The last time the team was proactive with Sheets he didn't exactly make them look like geniuses. One good year in his contract year isn't really what we paid him all that money for. As far as Melvin thinking he can compete with the likes of Bush, Suppon and McClung goes he is competing with the likes of Bush, Suppon and McClung isn't he? They still have YoGa and Parra. So far YoGa is unproven but I haven't seen any reason why he couldn't be an ace down the road. Parra is still young but after a full year under his belt he should be that much better. Parra really does have the stuff to be at least a 2. YoGa has the ability to be a 1. I'd be all for keeping Sheets. If we lose him I'm not going to just resign myself to another 15 years of futility. I think we have enough talent in the rotation and a little depth with Villy to keep the team going forward until some of the younger pitchers start to filter in.

No. The reason he'd want the Atlanta job (which I believe he'd take in a heartbeat), is for family (Wife) reasons. She would not let him pass that job up. It's been their home even after 6 years as Brewer manager. I think it's understood by everyone involved that it's a done deal. The reason he'd not want the Atlanta job is for his managerial reputation. Atlanta is not very good and their best players are old. Their pitching staff is thin without Smoltz and Glavine. Jones is getting up there in age and the bullpen is pretty weak. He'd have to deal with a team on a serious decline all the while getting compared to a hall of fame type manager. Replacing someone who did what Cox did there is like trying to replace Brett Farve. Meanwhile back in Milwaukee the Brewers have a great core of young players and a solid farm system. They have been through the lean years and are about to put up a second straight winning season. This one appears to be even better than the last one. They are in the thick of a pennant race once again and are set up to do so in the next couple years. I think the Braves history speaks volumes over why the Braves job is probably a move up compared to the Brewers job. You mean the team that doesn't sell out playoff games? The same team that before the 90's was a bottom feeder and couldn't hold a candle to Milwaukee in the 80's. The good part of their history in Atlanta only really started 15 years ago. Before that there were a lot of people who thought the Braves made a big mistake moving to Atlanta since the Brewers always out sold them. The Braves certainly do have a much better history than the Brewers but most of that came when they were in Milwaukee. What will happen to the Braves in the lean years ahead? Probably the same thing that happened to them when they weren't very good last time around. Low ticket sales, small crowds and apathy.

Fish Boil? Watch the show - then go inside and order a steak! So true. I lived there for 25 years and only ate boiled fish once. That was plenty. No matter how traditional boiled meat just isn't all that tasty.