SRB

I am not talking about absolutes of Braun being 100% innocent or 100% guilty because none of us can pretend like we know the answer to that question. Do I think that MLB would do this to Braun if they were convinced he took something but didn't have sufficient evidence to suspend him through the normal procedures? Absolutely. That's exactly what they're doing. But MLB was no less convinced that he took something in 2011, and they didn't have the evidence to back it up because of all the procedural errors. My point all along has simply been that we do not have proof that Braun took PEDs, and that a guilty plea does not constitute evidence of guilt. That's all. I really don't know whether he took something or not (I don't care either, but that's a separate debate...), and I would prefer to reserve my subjective judgment on that issue until I actually see the Biogenesis evidence. Which coincidentally MLB has not leaked (despite leaking everything else) most likely because it is not as strong as the would like the public to believe. And I have zero hometown bias with regard to MLB and sports media's handling of PEDs. I am equally disgusted for how they treat players I would otherwise detest; like the shameful display they are currently putting on trying to end A-Rod's career. Buster Olney apparently doesn't understand that there could be a legally-enforceable contractual agreement between MLB and Braun preventing him from saying anything.

The point is not whether Bonds was clean or not, the point is that MLB made up their mind, didn't want him in the game anymore, and colluded to end his career (despite the fact that in his final season he put up offensive numbers better than almost any MVP in recent history). Now MLB and the Yankees are seemingly trying to do the same thing with A-Rod, and there's no reason for Braun to have thought that there wasn't at least a possibility they could make him the public example to end things once and for all. If there was just a 2% chance that they would ban him by alleging multiple violations at once or something (costing him $120M) then it was an easy choice to take a $3M plea. Many players have been guilty in the court of public opinion for far less, but that doesn't make it proof that they were guilty. That's my point. I never insulted anybody's intelligence, if that was your conclusion from me suggesting that proof of guilt does not necessarily follow from a guilty plea then that's on you.

I have no evidence to conclude that he did nothing wrong, my point is simply that accepting a plea deal for a reduced suspension is not conclusive evidence that he's guilty. The 2011 failed test was far greater evidence that he was guilty than this current suspension. MLB thinks he took something--whether they have strong proof or not--and were going to railroad him no matter what it took. What's Braun supposed to do when MLB circumvents the arbitration process and suspends him with an appeal to Selig only? At a certain point it becomes a pragmatic decision for him and his advisors, where taking a $3M hit (and harming a reputation that was already permanently tarnished) made more sense in terms of risk calculus. MLB has a massive agenda in acting tough on drugs, so they need to make an example out of somebody. And a lifetime ban for a huge star (who's already tainted in the eyes of the public) isn't out of the question; just watch what they are going to try to do to A-Rod if he doesn't roll over. But yeah, the notion of MLB colluding to keep somebody they don't like out of the game is totally absurd: http://www.thesmokinggun.com/sites/default/files/photos/barry_bonds_jersey.jpg

MLB steamrolled him alright. They probably didn't have any evidence at all other than a scrap of paper from Biogenesis. Somehow they used no evidence and Jedi mind tricks to steam roll Braun into sitting out over 60 games, losing millions, millions more in endorsements, and incurring the wrath of fans, media, and players for years to come. Yea, makes sense to me. I'm sure if you were threatened with a career-ending ban that would cost you >$120,000,000, you would be eager to stand strong on your principles in order for baseball writers and people on the internet (who already hate you) not to be mad at you. Makes sense.

Of course he can't say anything. MLB steamrolled him into a guilty plea to make it look like proof of his wrongdoing (which everyone seems to devour unquestioningly) and to intimidate other players, so they're obviously not going to let him be able to speak to the media as a condition on that.

LaPorta Lawrie Jeffress Will Inman Jury is out on: Odorizzi, Cain, Brantley, Escobar. The latter 3 are fine players, but I don't think they've really added to their own trade value since they were traded, therefore they were traded at their peak. The point is that "peak" value often occurs when a player hits AAA. Lawrie was definitely not traded at his peak value (nor Brantley, but he's wasn't the centerpiece). But I agree, Melvin has a fairly good track record w/ trades it seems. Lohse needs to go. He is pitching like an ace at a time when the pitching market hugely favors sellers. If nobody wanted to sign Lohse last offseason, why would they give up a big package to get him next offseason? Melvin needs to tap into somebody's pennant desperation.

That seems quite aggressive. Based on the descriptions of his skillset I was thinking the over/best-case might be Nick Johnson at 3B. But I doubt his OBP skills are anywhere close to that good. He fell to the sixth round due to an injury and I think signability. The Orioles gave him $1.5M, which is late-first-round money. So to the extent that money = value, I'd say it's fair to call him a supplemental first round type player. With the added value of two years hindsight in which he hasn't been a bust.

There's no conspiracy, that's the point. As a practical matter the balance of interests heavily favored taking a plea right now and serving a suspension, and I'm sure his advisers told him that. That doesn't mean he was actually guilty, it just means it wasn't cost effective for him to continue to fight it. I'm not saying I believe he took something one way or the other, because I have seen essentially zero evidence for anything other than sensationalist and irresponsible reporting/leaks from ESPN. I think the 2011 suspension was very suspicious, obviously. But if people had given him the benefit of the doubt there, then I don't see how this plea changes anything. Imagine that Braun's camp is told that MLB is going to do anything they can to nail him, including disregarding certain provisions in the CBA, and that they are threatening him with a 100+ game suspension (and even throwing around talk of a lifetime ban). Imagine further that the MLBPA -- faced with all these upcoming Biogenesis suspensions -- tells Braun that they aren't going to invest a lot in defending him and that he's on his own basically. He's faced with: [1] Immediate suspension, costing him around $3M, on a last place team, when he's already injured versus [2] 100+ game suspension, costing him at least $10M (and obviously a lifetime ban would cost him $120+M), at the earliest starting in 2014 when the Brewers might be competitive again and when he would be healthy and back in his prime. Furthermore, if MLB does something shady w/r/t the CBA to try and nail him (e.g. they suspend him and make it appealable to Selig alone, who cursorily dismisses any appeal), he's faced with a protracted legal battle that could conceivably cost him millions just to fight the charges. Why would any sane person not elect for #1? He "admits" guilt, true, but everybody (except for some Brewers fans) already thought he was guilty after 2011 anyways, and that was always going to be hanging over him. Everybody already thought he got off on a technicality, so he's not taking a huge hit to his reputation/legacy. He lost nothing and saved himself millions of dollars, and at the same time acted in the best interest of the Brewers team and Brewers fans. It was a business decision; risking millions of dollars and everything else just for the "TRUTH!" would have been foolish given that his reputation was already tarnished to begin with.

There are Yuniesky Betancourts in every industry.

Not a superstar, but a potential 1B/3B starter is a pretty great return on a free agent SP we signed a month into the season. John Sickels: 4) Nick Delmonico, 1B, Grade B-: Orioles fans seem to think he'll be a star. I see him more as a solid regular with patience and at least moderate power, but expectations need to be kept reasonable. Baseball America had him at #4 in the Orioles organization too, and had him as their projected 2017 first baseman. *Edit* Also, based on his twitter, seems like he goes by Nicky Delmonico?

I agree that the sensationalizing media can be ridiculous sometimes, but if Yo really believes this, I don't even know what to say anymore. Gallardo then went on to question the moon landing and insisted 9/11 was an inside job. Aren't you a lawyer? How many people sitting in jail right now as a result of plea deals were definitively guilty of the crime they were charged with? MLB was going to lay down the hammer and do whatever they could to suspend him, it sounded like to the point of abrogating the CBA. And I'm guessing the MLBPA wasn't that keen to back him up in a protracted legal battle (for which his legal fees could very well have exceeded the $3M or so he's losing here). Don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to know there's quite a bit of room for doubt left. Personally I honestly could not care less about whether he took PEDs (aside from K-Rod/Gallardo crimes people are mentioning -- people who want Prince back instead of Braun, have you forgotten when Prince tried to storm a clubhouse and beat up a dude?), but his admission here doesn't make me more or less convinced that he took something than the original suspension/acquittal. If MLB has such "overwhelming evidence" they wouldn't do this cloak of dagger crap. Why not just admit what the evidence is? They're leaking everything else to ESPN & co. All we know is that there was some shady list at Biogenesis that Braun's name allegedly appeared on, that MLB was deadset on destroying him, and that he decided to accept a deal that affects him and the team in the most minimal way possible. I will be very interested to see how the A-Rod situation plays out; if MLB isn't able to get any other suspensions to stick, will that change people's thoughts on this?

Gallardo still adamant that he doesn't think Braun took PEDs. Wow, somebody capable of seeing more nuance in the situation than the anointed baseball "journalists"!

Baseball writers always seem to find anonymous players to echo the writers' own opinions, but in any event... Hopefully Lucroy/Segura aren't mad, because the rest of this team is expendable whereas Braun is the franchise. So who cares.

I think something being missed is that if Braun was truly selfish he could have easily fought this whole-heartedly into next season or beyond, and very well could have ended up with the same suspension then, or very well could have been acquitted again and saved himself millions of dollars. A large part of taking the plea now is that it is in the best interests of the Brewers as a team. Of course, that is being reported by the media exactly nowhere. Much better story to whine about what a monster he is, I guess.

Whose reputation did he hurt? He barely said anything about the sample collector, and what he did say was all of a technical/procedural nature. The damage to the collector's reputation came 100% from the media. And now the media has created this new yarn about how Braun should be ashamed of himself for lying and hurting people's reputations. It's all contrived and manufactured.

Fielder, 2012-2020: $214M Braun, 2012-2020: $140M

Yeah, he absolutely trashed him! Braun is a monster: Or, you know, he was just referring to the fact that the collector apparently broke protocol and didn't do his job correctly (not that his "livelihood" was affected in anyway). By the way, was it Braun who leaked the collector's name, or the self-righteous media who is now crucifying Braun? Hmm...

A bunch of crappy players jealous of Braun's talent? (...and Johnny Bench)

Woah, I know it's been a big of a shocking day, but don't do anything drastic!

Come on, man. He already had a season after his PED-suspension where there was zero drop off. Braun might be the most talented player in Brewers history (if not Yount -- depends how he finishes his career), and you want to trade him because he lied at a press conference?

People are outraged over somebody (potentially) lying a press conference? Must lead to a lot of frustration on a near daily basis.

Any of the resident criminal lawyers around to weigh in on the significance of a defendant faced with a life sentence accepting a plea for a minor sentence? This "admission" is meaningless; he was faced with a lifetime ban (cost to him >$100M), or at least a 150-game ban starting next season (cost to him $10M plus missing an entire season). In contrast, this plea costs him around $3.5M, on a last place team not competing, and when he is nursing a thumb injury that might have landed him on the DL anyways. Plus even if he won a later suspension he would be equally tarred in the eyes of most of the public. MLB was determined to suspend him, to the extent of using a "just cause" suspension appealable only to Selig. This plea means nothing other than that Braun and his attorneys are practical and have common sense. I'm not saying I have evidence he is innocent either, but this plea does not prove that he took steroids, as people are treating it...

Curveball! Y. Gallardo Los Angeles Dodgers July 20

Not sure if this warrants its own thread, but what about A-Ram to Boston? Reports today that they want to shore up 3B/SS, and they might be the only team that could easily take on his contract (or at least a large portion of it). Looking at Cots, the Red Sox payroll commitments drop off a cliff after 2013 (when their payroll is right around $155M): not counting arbitration, they have $87M committed next year, and only $29M in 2015. Add to that the fact that the 2014 free agent market is horrendous (I doubt anybody is going to want to spend on Youkilis or Young, and after that the best free agent 3B is... Wilson Betemit?) The only caveat is that they have Middlebrooks and Garin Cecchini, but apparently they want an upgrade for the immediate future. Maybe Middlebrooks could be part of the package coming the other way? Seems like lots of possibilities here with their alleged interest in starting pitching and relief pitching as well.