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SRB

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Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    Those four names are all decent, and it sounds like Melvin is standing firm in not giving out larger contracts, so that's good. Has anyone heard anything about Dallas Braden? He's coming off two major surgeries, I believe, so who knows if he will ever even start in the majors again, but if healthy he might be a good risk for the Brewers. They really need a LH starter and other than Liriano (maybe Bedard) not really any on the market worth looking into.
  2. SRB
    One corollary to Melvin's "We aren't going to sign a free agent SP" comments: payroll is at around $70M right now, the stated target is $80M, so where does the final $10M go? Couple relievers and a utility IF maybe?
  3. SRB
    I don't think Hunter was in any way implying that he should have gotten the 5/$125M deal (or any contract at all, really), I think he just feels that he was blatantly lied to by the Angels front office. Understandable to be irked, imo. At least, understandable enough to make an off-hand remark on Twitter. And fwiw, Hunter had a better season last year than Hamilton.
  4. SRB
    Bedard would not be high risk. He was released last August and no one signed him. He could easily be had on a minor league deal. No risk at all. High-risk in the sense of him being the only SP addition and having the potential to get injured or not perform well. I wouldn't give him a big contract.
  5. SRB
    I could see Melvin going for a high-risk guy on a one year deal. Erik Bedard maybe?
  6. SRB
    Trumbo is a horrible defender in the OF though. He is the most overrated player in baseball because he hits HRs, the return compared to whatever the Angels would demand would be a disaster.
  7. SRB
    HRs are not as impressive when you can barely manage a .300 OBP. .337 wOBA (Trumbo, 2011-12) v. .367 wOBA (Hart, 2011-12)
  8. SRB
    Making the playoffs on the backs of such a young rotation is just going to be all the more fun. Brewers are always the underdogs anyways, can't wait for Fiers v. Greinke in the NLCS!!!
  9. SRB
    Go for Trumbo. That be a nice 3-4-5 Trumbo a huge downgrade from Hart. Would have to be some good pitching.
  10. SRB
    I would have been alright with that deal. Will be interesting to see what Melvin does now. (Anybody but Lohse, please...)
  11. SRB
    Don't the Angels already have too many OF?? *Edit* To put things into perspective, last two years: Ryan Braun: .420 wOBA Josh Hamilton: .379 wOBA Corey Hart: .367 wOBA If you're not playing him in CF and praying for MVP-year-upside, Hamilton's a bit more Corey Hart than Ryan Braun.
  12. SRB
    He seems to like Miller Park in general, FWIW: (career) 101.1 IP, 2.66 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, .221/.301/.369/.670
  13. SRB
    Dempster. I think Marcum has the potential to be slightly better ERA/FIP-wise, but if I'm signing a veteran at all I want a guy who is extremely consistent and is a good bet to give you 200 IP. The way Marcum pitched at the end of 2011, I just don't trust his shoulder at all. Dempster's xFIP the last five seasons: 3.77, 3.70, 3.74, 3.76, 3.69
  14. SRB
    Updated spreadsheet of free agent pitchers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiT-S4-H5q9zdDl4bWdFSmJ5bTBha3Joc043eUZubHc Top 5 remaining free agent SP (plus those coming off major injuries) in order of: ERA (2010-12) Tim Stauffer* Chris Young* Dallas Braden* Roy Oswalt Shaun Marcum Anibal Sanchez Kyle Lohse Jeff Karstens FIP (2010-12) Anibal Sanchez Roy Oswalt Francisco Liriano Kyle Lohse Tim Stauffer* Edwin Jackson xFIP (2010-12) Roy Oswalt Anibal Sanchez Tim Stauffer* Edwin Jackson Ryan Dempster Francisco Liriano
  15. SRB
    That's just going to make Melvin overpay for Kyle Lohse (at which point I stop rooting for baseball and become a hermit)
  16. SRB
    Marco Estrada (2011-12): 5.7 IP/GS, 1.1 HR/9 Yovani Gallardo (career): 6.1 IP/GS, 1.0 HR/9 NL Average (2012): 5.9 IP/GS, 1.0 HR/9 Keep in mind that Estrada hasn't been fully stretched out at times in his role as SP/RP the last two seasons, so in a full-season SP role his IP/GS would likely be higher. Maybe he is a touch below average on those two stats, but his overall success as a starter more than makes up for that in my mind. If you have a guy who can give you quality ERA/FIP/xFIP as a starter, who cares if he is going to give you one less out every once in a while? (And what is the alternative? It's not like Rogers/Peralta/Narveson/Fiers are going to be going deep into games either).
  17. SRB
    E.g.: the Athletics trying to move to San Jose (huge market) but the Giants won't let them.
  18. SRB
    That makes sense to me. I think people are maybe undervaluing how good Estrada has been. Over the last two seasons he has 231 IP, 9.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.82 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 3.52 xFIP. Statistically that's not far behind Yovani, to be honest (9.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.59 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 3.36 xFIP from 2011-12). I don't think Estrada is comparable to Gallardo going forward, of course, but he's certainly earned a rotation spot. To me he is clearly better than Fiers, Rogers, and Peralta (at this point in Peralta's career).
  19. SRB
    Last season Mark Rogers set a career best by finally reaching 130 IP across AAA/MLB. I'm skeptical that he will be in the opening day rotation and not the bullpen.
  20. SRB
    One thing that I think is interesting about Aoki's season is his BABIP. The tools that made him such a prodigious hitter in Japan, and helped him have such a solid season in MLB last year, are his speed and his ability to spray the ball all over the field to find an opening. In that respect (and his batted ball distribution) he is very similar to Ichiro; who obviously comes from the same professional upbringing in NPB (although Aoki has less power and LD% than Ichiro). To me, I would expect a player with that type of hitting style to have a well-above-average BABIP. For example, Ichiro has a career .347 BABIP and a career best of .399, which has always been the foundation of his high averages (though now he is getting old and slower). But Aoki's BABIP last season was a very normal .304. Makes you wonder if he might actually have been unlucky last year, and whether we could expect a higher AVG next year given his skillset and what I would expect to be a higher BABIP. (This also seems to be supported by the xBABIP metric -- which it looks like would have expected Aoki to have a .339 BABIP last season given his batted ball data and speed)
  21. SRB
    I'm pretty sure any player can be turned into a 1B. Obviously there is a skill to being a plus defender there, but it doesn't seem to be very hard to be passable at least -- unless you are otherwise abnormally slow or injured. Prince is 5'11" and obese and he was a decent 1B. That's why you have to be such a good hitter to start at the position (arguably, one of the problems with Gamel...)
  22. SRB
    But do you want Marco Estrada to be our #2 starter?
  23. SRB
    I'm changing my tune and thinking they need to just sign Dempster already. Three years is fine. There aren't any other substantial upgrades out there, and right now the rotation is Gallardo and a bunch of back-of-the-rotation types (with some upside). RHP Gallardo LHP Dempster RHP Estrada RHP Peralta RHP Fiers (LHP Narveson) That is a passable rotation given the Brewers offense. I know people are spooked by the memories of Suppan/Wolf, but Dempster is a significantly better pitcher, and if you look at his peripherals they have been remarkably consistent for quite a while.
  24. SRB
    Except none of that pitching is very good. Shields is fine but he is not a top-level ace that you trade multiple elite prospects for. Just absurd.
  25. SRB
    And they are still going to finish behind the Giants.
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