Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

SRB

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,357

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

News

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects Ranking

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

Milwaukee Brewers Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    I can't decide if this is worse than Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli, because Gonzalez still has a chance to become an elite player again. On the other hand, he's having a pretty mediocre year. So yeah, this is worse than Wells for Napoli.
  2. SRB
    Carl Crawford was below replacement level for most of last season. Dude has completely fallen off the cliff. Maybe a change of scene will do him wonders, but it's a huge commitment to take a gamble on. Beckett is also horrible and overpaid at this point. Adrian Gonzalez is the only good return (he's gone from elite to merely-good, but only over 2/3 of a season), but even then you are taking on a mega-contract when you don't need to. They could have gotten Greinke, Bourn, and Hamilton for the money they're spending (unless Red Sox are paying a substantial amount). Probably could have gotten Berkman to play 1B too. It's good for LA because they got a very good 1B long-term, and there aren't any long-term 1B on the market, but wow did they take on a lot of money/risk.
  3. SRB
    There is a very real drop. For example: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/sports/baseball/14score.html (though there are probably better sources if I Google'd longer). From 2000-2005 it was an average 0.85 ERA drop, 0.70 increase going the other direction. I think it could actually be more now, given how much offense is concentrated in the AL.
  4. SRB
    On the one hand, giving up on A-Gon so early seems kind of dumb. On the other hand, I would despite this trade if I were a Dodgers fan. Team has a huge pool of money to spend this off season but ownership just committed it all to a bunch of overpaid players in a salary dump.
  5. SRB
    My guess: 1) Yovani Gallardo 2) Edwin Jackson (4-year deal) 3) Michael Fiers 4) Wily Peralta/Marco Estrada 5) Somebody horrendous that Melvin will still sign (e.g. Jason Marquis)
  6. SRB
    Wow!!
  7. SRB
    Michael Fiers pro career so far (all levels combined): 27-19 W-L, 428.2 IP, 2.60 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 1.024 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 4.1 K/BB Not bad for a guy with "bad stuff"
  8. SRB
    Yeah, it is a little unforgivable when you are playing arguably the most important offensive position. I guess the difference of opinion here is that a lot of you all seem to have given up on 2013 season completely and are willing to let Gamel struggle some more to see if he can pull things out and become a passable starter. I'd prefer to field a competitive team and not have a black hole at first base. Since 2000, there have been 153 1B with 250+ PA. So far Gamel ranks 138th offensively (by wOBA). The only players with worse wOBA who were allowed to accumulate 500+ PA were John Bowker (lol), Andy Marte and Justin Smoak (two at-one-point elite prospects who were much more highly regarded than Gamel). All those players are below replacement level. I don't disagree that Gamel could improve, but why does he have to be the Brewers' experiment? His upside (a roughly average-to-below-average regular at 1B) is not enough to justify taking the risk. Maybe if we were the Astros, then I would have no problem putting him out there and seeing what he can do. But I haven't given up on 2013 yet, I guess.
  9. SRB
    As opposed to your great analysis, which is... ? (aside from misspelling his name) He only has half a seasons worth of PA, but his PA have been horrible relative to his position/other abilities (.299 wOBA?). That's concerning and frankly unforgivable when: 1) you are not in your early-20s, but should be right in the prime of your hitting ability (he's only a few years younger than Corey Hart...), and 2) you are a 1B and can't play anywhere else. The rule for 1B prospects is that to be considered remotely legitimate they have to absolutely crush the ball at every level, because it is such an offense-reliant position. Gamel has not done that. He is never going to do that. Even his dream-case projections are to be a Lyle Overbay-type, average-to-below-average second division starter. He hasn't been able to hit yet in the major leagues, does anyone honestly expect that he's going to come back from almost missing an entire season and suddenly be good in 2013? I was all on board with the theory coming into 2012 that he just hadn't been given regular playing time and that's why his hitting had been so bad, but then he had the starting job and was looking terrible when he was handed his sink-or-swim moment. It's time to move on, nothing against Gamel himself.
  10. SRB
    I think it's well past time to give up on the Gamel dream-that-was-never-that-much-of-a-dream. Dude can't hit MLB pitching and has never been a passable defender (at least, not outside of 1B). I would be happy if they got a usable bullpen piece for him. More likely he'll end up like the ghosts of 1B prospects past (e.g. Brandon Allen, currently playing in Japan).
  11. SRB
    Walsh Jennings/May-Treanor = way more impressive than Michael Phelps, IMO.
  12. SRB
    I agree that from a purely statistical standpoint a couple months of Segura isn't a difference-maker (although I'm not sure where you are pulling this replacement level SS from, considering the normal sort of last-resort SS is well below replacement, like Izturis or Yuniesky), but it still would make zero sense. It would basically be admitting that the team is not trying 100% to win in 2013. Maybe if the team is good you can look back with 20/20 hindsight and say that they were able to contend without that extra win (or whatever value you place on a few months of Segura), but conceding at the start of the season that you are not going to field the best team possible just for the possibility of getting an extra year of service-time is silly. You can make the same type of argument to calculate that it takes Ryan Braun n games to add 1.0 WAR, and then say that we should bench Braun for n-1 games since it won't matter in the end and will lower the odds that he gets injured. That's not the way to run a competitive team in the real world.
  13. SRB
    There wasn't any reason to have kept him in the minors until June 2013, unless you already give up on the 2013 season, which there is no reason to do. The Brewers can compete next year, so why would the play some horrendous free agent like Cesar Izturis for 1-2 months when the best SS in the system was healthy? Not that Segura alone is that huge of a difference maker, but keeping him in the minors basically concedes the 2013 season just so you can get another year of team control way down the line.
  14. SRB
    I think this is a good move, because it opens the door for Segura to be the everyday SS for all of 2013 as long as he plays somewhat competently now down the stretch. So, assuming he at least treads water, it allows them to sign a cheaper/worse veteran SS for 2013 than they would have needed to had Segura been completely untested at the MLB level. Regarding service time, correct me if I'm wrong but this doesn't change anything regarding team control unless they were going to wait to call him up until well into 2013 (which would kind of defeat the purpose of trading for the SS since we have no other SS to play the first part of 2013). He will have more service time going into 2013, but he still wont hit the 6.000 threshold until the middle of his seventh season with the Brewers end of 2012: 0.300 end of 2013: 1.300 end of 2014: 2.300 end of 2015: 3.300 (arbitration 1) end of 2016: 4.300 (arbitration 2) end of 2017: 5.300 (arbitration 3) end of 2018: 6.300 (free agent)
  15. SRB
    Sign him, Doug! At times like these, when the placement of our 2013 draft pick is at stake, we need a man of such legendary incompetence as Yuniesky Betancourt. Few others could tank the team so impressively (though Izturis is a worthy challenger).
  16. SRB
    I am honestly so annoyed by the compensation-pick nonsense that happened after 2008 that I don't even want to think about it. Trout would have been a Brewer. Granted, the fact that some people are calling him the second-coming after a .400 BABIP half-season is pretty silly, but still...
  17. SRB
    I would go back to April 13, 1954 (in Cincinnati) to see the Braves lose 9-8 and some kid go 0-for-5 to start the greatest career in baseball history.
  18. SRB
    Who knows? That's why his first two seasons are an interesting baseball story. Why did Scott Podsednik start sucking? The question was greatest rookie season, not greatest career of all-time. Your numbers just prove that the FL was a legitimate league. Or are you implying that every player that played in both FL and NL/AL had amazingly better numbers in the FL? Because that's simply not true.
  19. SRB
    So? It was a legit league with lots of quality players, including a number of Hall of Famers (and the best player in baseball at the time, Walter Johnson, almost switched over). Just because it didn't survive doesn't mean it was like AAA or something.
  20. SRB
    Oakland has gotten unbelievable performance out of the players it brought in--like, incredibly lucky--and made a fairly huge free agent signing (Cespedes) and are still barely in contention by the skin of their teeth. Instead of trading any more players (barring a huge overpay by somebody) they need to sign an above-average 1B/RF, SP, and maybe some cheaper bullpen pieces. Together that would be a very good 2013 team. IMO, NL Central favorites.
  21. SRB
    I admit I was on board the trade-Ramirez bandwagon before, but I've done a complete 180. Dude is on pace for 5.0+ fWAR and fills a big need for this team. I know a lot of people act like Schafer and Green can be everyday starters, but I'm really looking forward to a year (hopefully assuming the Gamel experiment is over) where we don't have to deal with not-that-good fringe prospects filling starting spots. Next year you keep Hart and sign a good 1B/RF, like Lance Berkman, and for the first time in quite a while you have a starting lineup without a black hole. Segura/backup veteran at SS and Gomez/Aoki in CF probably won't be amazing next year, but they aren't horrible either. Everywhere else you are above-average. When was the last time the Brewers didn't have a huge weak spot in their starting lineup? The 1980s???
  22. SRB
    Greatest rookie season of all time is the great but forgotten Benny Kauff in 1914: 667 PA, .370/.447/.534, 120 R, 95 RBI, 75 SB. If you go by advanced metrics, he had an amazing .491 wOBA!!! And on top of that, he as a plus-plus defender in centerfield, giving him a total of 11.1 fWAR. Shoeless Joe Jackson is in the running too, 10.9 fWAR in his rookie season. Kauff followed up his rookie season with another monster campaign (9.6 fWAR), so I doubt there is any player in history who had such a dominating first two years. After his rookie year he only played five and a half more season though, because he was banned from baseball for allegedly being involved in an car theft ring (despite an acquittal) and for having an undesirable character. One of my favorite forgotten players! But back on-topic, if Fiers keeps pitching like this and doesn't win RoY it will be absurd. Outside Trout, the only three rookies who have been as valuable as Fiers are Miley, Darvish and Lance Lynn (all four are around two and a half wins in terms of value). But they've pitched basically twice as many innings. In his limited playing time Fiers has been the best rookie in the NL, not even close.
  23. SRB
    Possibilities: 1) Made up by Red Sox front office or Red Sox reporter to increase trade leverage. 2) Some type of three-team trade is in the works. 3) Doug Melvin done lost his mind.
  24. SRB
    Wow, that would be a great trade. Upton + one of Bauer/Skaggs/Bradley?! Too bad there is a negative probability that Melvin will trade the last remaining 2012 opening day starter (given that Greinke/Marcum/Wolf/Narveson likely won't be in the 2013 rotation). Still need to field a 2013 team...
  25. SRB
    I can't imagine the Braves are very optimistic about Vizcaino anymore after his Tommy John if they traded him for Reed Johnson.
×
×
  • Create New...