JosephC

Olt is the only "high-end" prospect that I think the Brewers could possibly get in the Greinke deal. And when I say "high-end," I'm talking about the top 30 (roughly) on Baseball America's latest top 50 prospects list. The Ranger's system is just so loaded they could afford to give up someone like Olt for a 2 month rental and Greinke should be a pretty big help to them. But for other guys like Machado from the Orioles, I just can't see a deal like that happening. I'd love to get Olt. He might have some problems with big league off-speed pitches, but even if he does I think he'll be an average OBP, good power offensive player and it sounds like his defense should be really good. That being said, I don't see Melvin making a straight-up deal for Olt because he'll be looking for pitching that can help in 2013 before anything else. But we'll see, if Melvin is unimpressed by the pitching offers then he'll have to go in a different direction, and if that's the case Olt could be the biggest prize he can land. Martin Perez is really interesting and I'd love to know what Melvin thinks of him. Super high upside, but frankly the stat sheet has not been impressive at all once he got past A-ball. I'd sure be extremely interested in him, but would Melvin have enough confidence that Perez could hold onto a major league rotation spot in 2013 (even though he is in the majors right now)?

Angels look like a perfect fit. MLB-ready pitcher = Garrett Richards SS prospect = Jean Segura 1B prospect = C.J. Cron

Agreed. I think FIP is a valuable tool to use a predictor for future performance, but in terms of using it to evaluate current and past performance I think it's a completely worthless metric. Once a player has a long, established history I prefer to look at the "old-school" numbers to evaluate performance and try to predict what that player will do in the future. Obviously the defense behind him and the park he pitches in impacts ERA and WHIP, but instead of applying hard numbers to correct for it I tend to perfer to look at things like home/road splits and take defense into consideration and make a judgement call At the beginning of the season I was all hot for the Brewers to step up and give Greinke a Weaver-type contract (5 years, 85 million), so I am definitely not opposed to making a long-term commitment to Greinke. But with the way things have unfolded this year, as well as Greinke's significantly higher asking price, I think it's probably best for the Brewers if the two sides go their separate ways. Back to FIP...even though I think FIP is a useful tool as a predictor for future performance, eventually there comes a time where there is a long enough track record of performance that it becomes a more reliable tool for predicting how a player will perform in the future. Now I can fully appreciate the variability from pitching in park A versus park B and the variability in having defense A behind a pitcher versus defense B. There is no question that those things have a significant impact on ERA and WHIP. But the question will always be to what degree do those factors have on ERA and WHIP? As these things apply to Greinke, using defensive runs saved and UZR/150, the Royals defense in 2010 was horrible, the Brewer defense in 2011 was above average and the Brewer defense in 2012 was below average. Park factor is interesting, because in each of the last two years Greinke has been so much better at home on the road. In his last year in KC, the home/road splits were fairly even for Greinke. Just an opinion, but in terms of evaluating Greinke's ERA and WHIP I'd probably say the only significant positive or negative bias on those numbers would be KC's horrible defense in 2010. All that taken into consideration, since Greinke's Cy Young year he has logged a significant amount of innings, 507 2/3 to be exact. Over that timeframe he has a 3.92 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. IMO the only real negative impact (fielding, park) on those numbers is KC's 2010 defense, and even if you shave a full 0.70 (a high number when comparing ERA to FIP) off his ERA from that season, Greinke's ERA from 2010 to present would be 3.62 when making that adjustment. Without taking the time to breakdown the numbers, I think everyone would agree that a Greinke deal would likely eat up approximately 20% of the Brewer's payroll per season. IMO, to dedicate that much of the payroll to one player that guy needs to perform at a top-notch level year after year after year. I'm talking about a pitcher like what Roy Halladay has been, or what Clayton Kershaw has become. Will all Greinke's flash on the mound and glitz in the peripheral pitching numbers, I just don't see him being that type of pitcher based on the last 2 1/2 years of work. No question he was that guy in 2009, but we are far enough removed from that where I don't think it's likely that he could regain and maintain that type of form in 3 of the next 5 seasons. A great pitcher, a guy I'd love to have on the ballclub...but IMO not a player you'd want to dedicate 20% of the payroll to. I think the best projection for him over the next five years is exactly what he is doing in 2012...ERA of ~3.50, a WHIP around 1.25 and a quality start about 60-65% of the time. That's borderline #1/#2 type numbers...again a real good player to have on the team but not worth 20% of the team's payroll.

I wonder what Melvin thinks of Ervin Santana? Santana is having a terrible year but has a proven track record as a solid major league pitcher. There doesn't seem to be any problems with his arm when reviewing the velocity numbers. The only thing that really jumps out when compared to his past performance is the effectiveness of his slider is way down. If a Brewer scout tells Melvin that the only problem that Santana is having this season is that he's hanging too many sliders but he is sound physically, then there is a decent enough chance that Melvin could be interested in him. After this season Santana has an option year for 13 million, and I don't see the Brewer's having any problem fitting that contract into the budget. The Angels would probably be willing to dump him because he's having a terrible year and there is a really good chance that he's the guy that would get bumped out of the rotation if they added Greinke. Especially if Haren's return is near and I think he's already throwing bullpens. Melvin took on a one year-plus reclamation project with Francisco Cordero. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see Melvin try the same strategy with Ervin Santana. Looking at the projection for the rotation next year and the current state of the bullpen, I still lean towards thinking Melvin will be aiming to get some proven major league pitchers instead of prospects. The guy I think the Brewers should be shooting for in a possible Angels deal is Garrett Richards. He's in the Angels rotation right now and is holding his own (walking too many batters, other that that he's doing alright). Big guy with a 95 MPH fastball and a legitimate 3 pitch mix. Baseball America had him as the Angel's #3 prospect heading into the season and stated he has the upside of a #2 starter but was a safer projection as a #3. Obviously Segura is a guy I'd love to have and Cron is attractive as well. But if the Brewers could deal Greinke for Garrett Richards, another good to decent prospect like third baseman Kaleb Cowart and a marginal reliever currently in the majors (David Carpenter)...that's something I could be happy with. I just don't see the Brewers being able to land a prospect like a Manny Machado for 2 months of Greinke especially now that it appears that he would be unwilling to accept any deal prior to testing the free agent market. But overall I like the Angels as a trading partner. Segura, Cron, Richards, the Angels definitely appear to have a major league bullpen arm to spare, and a starter like Santana if Melvin opts to go that way. A bunch of guys that would fit the Brewer's needs list and none are so highly regarded that the Angels would completely take them off the table in a Greinke deal. And yeah, I think the Angels need to make a deal because they are right on the borderline of the playoffs and they didn't do what they did last off-season to not go to the playoffs.

Ramirez will not be paid 16 million in 2014. There are many sources out there that states it but 6 million of that 16 million is deferred. That 6 million will get paid in 2 separate 3 million dollar installments, one in 2017 and one in 2018. Also, if the 2015 buyout is used it will get paid in 2 separated 2 million dollar installments, one in 2015 and and one in 2016. The breakdown of the actual payments in the Ramirez deal are as follows: 2012 = 6 million 2013 = 10 million 2014 = 10 million 2015 = 2 million (buyout) OR 14 million if playing for the Brewers (mutual option) 2016 = 2 million (buyout - not paid if Ramirez plays for Brewers in 2015) 2017 = 3 million (deferred payment) 2018 = 3 million (deferred payment) Guaranteed = 3 years, 36 million that could reach 4 years, 46 million if Ramirez plays for Milwaukee in 2015

Add me to the list of people that would love to see the Ramirez contract dumped. But I'm biased, didn't like the move in the first place. Figured the ~.900 OPS seasons probably ended in 2009 and we were unlikely to see anything like that again. The .746 OPS in 2010 was probably an anomaly...let's throw that one out. The OPS of .871 in 2011 and an OPS of .821 in 2012 looks like a downward trend. I thought the 6 million dollar payday for this season would be a bargain for the Brewers but those next couple of years look bad. Ramirez certainly is no athlete and hasn't been real durable, so it's not hard to see him slipping to being a sub-.800 OPS player in 2013 and beyond. While the Yankees could easily afford to put a 10 million dollar ~.780 OPS player on the field...that would be a really bad investment for the Brewers. Especially a player like Ramirez who is all bat and nothing else, as both his defense and his baserunning are huge negatives. Let's just say if I was in Melvin's chair the Dodgers wouldn't have to make much of an offer to convince me to move Ramirez as long as they picked up the entire remainder of his contract.

I can't see any situation where Baltimore would trade Bundy to the Brewers. Machado for Greinke...maybe...but it would have to be part of a much larger deal where the remainder would have to heavily favor the Orioles. I just don't see the Orioles being interested in a straight up Greinke/Machado swap...but the Brewers might be able to pry Machado away from Baltimore if they'd sweeten the pot enough. It would very likely have to contain another piece that would help the Orioles right now. Maybe something like Greinke and Aoki and Jungmann for Machado and Matusz. In the end I don't see either Bundy or Machado ending up in a Brewer uniform. Bundy = 0% chance. Machado probably something like 10%. IMO a potential deal with the Orioles would come down to what Melvin thinks of Matusz. I still think Melvin will put a priority on getting a major league starter back that he feels comfortable with putting into the rotation and getting 180+ MLB innings out of him in 2013. But it's hard for me to believe that Melvin would see Matusz as that guy. He is now over 350 MLB innings and has a 5.51 ERA. If Melvin likes Matusz I could see a scenario where the Brewers get Schoop and a few spare parts for Greinke : Schoop, Matusz, reliever Troy Patton and maybe another prospect (first baseman Aaron Baker?)...but I don't see it happening because of the uncertainty with Matusz. I just don't see the Orioles as being a good trading partner, they don't have a "decent" MLB starter that they could afford to part with in a Greinke trade...and I think that will be a big, big priority for Melvin if he deals Greinke.

If the Dodgers do that then they are crazy. Lee's .290/.342/.412/.754 line isn't even worth the (roughly) 9 million dollars he's still owed through the rest of this season. Even if the Astros pick up 100% of that money it's still a crazy trade for the Dodgers if Zach Lee is involved.

There may be a little underestimating of the trade chips the Dodgers have. I agree 100% that if you just evaluate the talent/performance of the players, and totally disregard the needs of the trading partner, then the Dodgers are lacking trade chips. But there is a decent enough chance that Melvin will over-value the Dodger talent because it's exactly what he will be looking for if/when he makes a Greinke deal. I don't think Melvin will prioritize the shortstop position in a Greinke deal. I think the first thing he wants back is a major league starting pitcher. The Brewer's 2013 rotation outlook is very bleak and it's pretty likely that Melvin would prefer to add at lease one piece in mid-season trades and not wait until the off-season. A young, cheap, controllable pitcher like Eovaldi is likely to be a perfect fit as to what Melvin is looking for. Personally I have my doubts on Eovaldi. He's not been that effective away from Dodger stadium this season and I'm still not 100% sold that he's a major league starting pitcher (he might be a reliever long-term)...but on the flip side you can look at Eovaldi's arm, age and upside potential and be sold on that. The Dodgers also have numerous bullpen pieces and one of them would be an immediate help to the Brewers. I'm assuming that Jansen and Guerra would be near untouchable (about as untouchable as a reliever would get) and the Dodgers would be reluctant to deal Elbert since he is their bullpen lefty. But a guy like Josh Lindblom could be attractive to Melvin. Again there are areas of extreme concern with Lindblom...mostly the 5 home runs he's allowed in 17 road innings this year....but overall he's a 25-year old that has posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in the majors this year. It wouldn't be a shock to see Melvin over-value a player like him considering the needs in the Brewer bullpen. Lindblom has been effective so far this year, he's cheap and would be controlled through 2017. The Brewers have shown a fairly extreme "win-now" approach over the last few years and I don't necessarily see that changing now even if the Brewers start trading off pieces. If Greinke is dealt I believe the primary intent will be to get pieces back that can most help the club in 2013, and that would mainly involve pitching. Remember what Melvin got in return for Carlos Lee, not prospects but rather a outfielder to patch the spot vacated by Lee, a reliever to fix the Derrick Turnbow problem and another outfielder that already had the "AAAA" look going for him. Based on the 2013 outlook and the Brewer's strong "win now" approach of the last few years, I believe there is a strong possibility the Brewers will take a similar approach when dealing Greinke as they did with the Lee deal a few years back. BTW, that is not the approach I would take, but it's the way I think the Brewers would lean. Also, not suggesting a straight Greinke for Eovaldi + Lindblom deal...but add a couple minor pieces and I could see something pretty similar to that happening. I just hope if Melvin deals for Dodger pitching he takes into account the impact of Dodger Stadium, because if you look at the Eovaldi/Lindblom splits both guys have been far more effective at home (and it isn't even close). The Braves? What does Melvin think of Mike Minor and/or Jair Jurrjens? I don't think the Braves would be ready to part with Teheran or Delgado. I don't think Melvin would count on Mike Minor to lock down a 2013 rotation spot based on the 6+ ERA he's posted so far this season. Jurrjens is back in the majors (actually has pitched well his last two times out) but the injury history is probably too much of a concern. If I'm right and Melvin's main priority to to get back starters that are a good bet to help the major league club in 2013, then I don't see the Braves as being a good trade partner unless they surprise me and are willing to deal Delgado.

I don't think the Brewers are in a good position to be real competitive in 2013-2014 as it currently sits. Certainly appears at this point that Greinke and Marcum will both be gone. Last time the Brewers lost two "top" starters was Sabathia and Sheets and they went from 90 wins down to 80 and 77 wins the next two seasons. And while there were some offensive question marks with the 2009 team, I think the core of that offense (Fielder, Braun, Hart, Cameron, Hardy) was more promising than what the Brewers figure to have out there in 2013 (mainly because I can see Ramirez having a big falloff fairly soon due to age/injury). But there is a difference between being "not competitive" and fielding a AAA team masquarading as a major league team. I have no problem with trading some key players and rebuilding, but I don't see any reason to trade off good players that are controlled at reasonable salaries for three-plus seasons. I don't think the Brewers should give any consideration to trading Gallardo. If they would, the 2013 Brewer rotation stacks up as Fiers, Estrada, Thornburg, Narveson, Peralta. Would anybody expect them to even win 70 games with a rotation like that (combined with the outlook for the rest of the ballclub)? Certainly they could pick up a starter or two in trades or free agency, but with many big market teams figuring to be heavily in the market for starters the Brewers will probably only get scraps to pick from and how many trade chips do they have in their system that would return a solid #3 starter or better? I just don't see anyway the Brewers could justify trading Gallardo considering the length of time they control him. I don't think it would be a good move from either a baseball perspective or a business perspective.

That's a good observation. I'm not convinced that if Greinke (and/or Marcum) is traded that the Brewers will be looking for A or AA ball prospects, regardless of their ceilings. The rotation is looking like a complete mess for next year. The Brewers do not control Greinke or Marcum. If Wolf keeps pitching like he has so far over the course of the season, there is no way the Brewers can pick up his option for next year. Who knows what shape Narveson's shoulder will be in, if anything you'd have to consider 2013 a rehab-type year for him. The top minor league option heading into this year (Peralta) is having a bad year and if you want to pencil him into the major league rotation for next year you probably cannot count on him being anything more than a #5. If Greinke and Marcum both leave, how does the 2013 rotation currently stack up? Gallardo, Estrada, Thornburg, Fiers, Peralta? Free agency? For starters the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs (and others) will be heavily involved in looking at free agent starting pitchers. I don't see the Brewers having much of a chance to add much quality when they'll have to bid against the big boys. Because of that I wouldn't be surprised if Melvin passes on higher-rated prospects playing in the lower levels and trades for major league pitchers or starter prospects that are so advanced that they figure to stick in a major league rotation in 2013. Not the approach I would take, but I think there is a good chance the Brewers will prefer this strategy. If they don't trade for MLB pitching or nearly-guaranteed MLB pitching it will almost be like they've given up on any chance of winning in 2013, which would be totally out of character for Attanasio.

I don't think the suggestion of trading Greinke with the intention of re-signing him as a free agent is feasible. If Greinke reaches free agency I don't think there is much of a chance he ends up back in Milwaukee. Too many big market teams will be looking for starters this off-season. Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs just for starters. Greinke can pretend like money doesn't matter but when the Brewer offer comes in at probably something around 100 million and a big market team gets in the 140+ million area then the money will matter. I also don't believe that any of the big market teams will be scared away from the past bouts with social anxiety disorder. When teams evaluate the stat sheet, age, durability...every one looking for starting pitching will have interest in Greinke. If the Brewers haven't taken their best shot at re-signing Greinke yet they should do it now, if they can't get it done by season's end I think the odds are overwhelming that Greinke is pitching elsewhere in 2013.