JosephC

No way does Braun accept going to Toronto. Maybe Toronto would like him but he isn't going anywhere east of Milwaukee and definitely not Canada. I don't think east/west plays any role in Braun's decision because Miami has not been on his no-trade list. But I do think north/south could play a big role which could exclude the Blue Jays. Best guess is that Braun would probably approve a deal (using the option year as leverage) to places like Atlanta, Texas, Houston. But places like Toronto, Detroit, Cleveland, etc...those become questionable. Yankees and Red Sox probably the two big exceptions because they are the Yankees and Red Sox. Probably would be OK with going to the Cubs too considering how good they are.

Hard to believe the Blue Jays would let Bautista get away since they are contenders and how good he's been for that organization. But the talk mid-season was that he has put a high price tag on himself and may have priced his way out of Toronto. Haven't heard that much about Encarnacion lately, but if both Bautista and Encarnacion leave then Braun is a perfect fit there. Michael Saunders is also a free agent which could open both corner outfield spots, but I'd think Toronto would like to have him back and it wouldn't break the bank to bring him back either. They'd have Bautista and Encarnacion's money off the books this year, then Upton's money off the books next year. The only concern with Braun's contract is if it would mess with a Donaldson extension but it doesn't appear that it would. Only question is if playing in Canada would freak Braun out and cause him to veto a trade. Just looking purely at the team it seems like a good spot to land. A couple real promising young pitchers in Sanchez and Stroman, they have the look of guys who could be cornerstones of the rotation for years to come. J.A. Happ pitched really well for them. Estrada and Liriano are free agents after next year but the rotation looks set for 2017 and should be OK after that with Sanchez and Stroman. Tulowitzki may not be the superstar he once was but after a .254/.318/.443/.761 season at the plate and playing plus defense he is still a 2 to 3 WAR player. No commentary needed on Josh Donaldson. They don't figure to be a bad team anytime soon, even considering the division they are in, and look like a pretty decent spot to land if playing for a good ballclub is a priority. If a proposal were to come and Braun was open to playing in Canada he would for sure demand that the option year become a player option which increases the guaranteed portion of the contract by 11 million dollars. So the Brewers would likely be forced to pick up more money. It would be interesting to see if the Blue Jays would want to dump Melvin Upton on Milwaukee. He was terrible after being traded to Toronto but had a pretty good first half with the Padres...he still has value but Toronto might just look to move on and pick a cheaper option. I wouldn't mind getting him back in a trade. It's only a one year commitment and apparently there were many teams interested in trading for him this last season before the deal was done with Toronto.

That's pretty much how I see it. Same seven starting candidates. I'd guess the Brewers are viewing Suter as a reliever. Very doubtful that the Brewers would want to start the major league service time clock on Hader at the beginning of the season (certainly wouldn't rule out a mid-season callup). So two extra, one to trade and the other for insurance in case of an injury in spring training. If no injury in spring training then one gets moved to the bullpen. The only two I don't think there is any chance of being moved is Davies and Nelson. I don't think Garza, Anderson or Jungmann brings any type of return whatsoever. Guerra or Peralta seem most likely to me, players Stearns would be willing to deal and guys that actually might bring something back. With Peralta it wouldn't be more than a solid role player prospect type, but that's still more than what Garza, Anderson or Jungmann would bring.

I'd put Garza's value firmly on the negative side. Fangraph's had him at what I feel is an unreasonably high 1.4 WAR and Baseball Reference had him at an unreasonably low -0.3 WAR. I'd slot him right in the middle of that...a 0.5 WAR player. On the market that's roughly a 4 million dollar player, and since Garza is still owed 18.5 million (10.5 million in salary in 2017, then 2 million dollars in deferred payments in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) he is still a negative value player. I think he's a solid hold candidate. If I'm an opposing GM looking at him during the off-season, he's a vastly overpaid pitcher on the back end of his career and there will be many other back-end starter candidates available at better prices. However, if he is just pitching OK (ERA in low 4's, WHIP in the low 1.3's) and is healthy in July of next year he could hold more value. Some pitchers on contending clubs will get injured and some others will be in the midst of a disappointing season. The pool will be thinned out and veteran starters will carry a higher price tag. Then a couple GM's could view him as a veteran pitcher who has been through it all before that will give the club not necessarily great but reliable innings down the stretch. And if he is pitching OK, then a trade partner will look at the 5 million option for 2018 as an attractive feature of the deal whereas I don't think anyone would look at it as much of a benefit currently. Bottom line, I think if the Brewers trade him in December they end up giving the opposing club 14 million along with Garza and get back a fringe prospect. If they wait until July and IF Garza is pitching OK (and that's a big IF), then I could see a deal where they only have to include 8 million in the deal and get back a couple role player type prospects. I think the starter who will get traded is Peralta. I'm not saying that's what I want to see because it's a definite sell low situation, but that's what I think will happen.

I definitely would not exclude Yadier Alvarez from consideration because of the financial investment the Dodgers made in him. The Dodgers sunk 62.5 million dollars into Hector Olivera and before he had a major league at-bat (and before the assault) they ended up trading him. After subtracting out what San Diego is now paying him, it looks like the Dodgers will end up paying 30 million for an international signing that only played in their minor league system prior to him being traded. There were some other contracts included in the initial 3-way swap but even after looking at the dead money the Dodgers picked up in that deal, the amount of money they ate in the Hector Olivera signing would be greater than 20 million. Yes a deal with Alvarez going to Milwaukee would be much different in many aspects than the three way deal the Dodgers made involving Olivera but that's not the point I'm making. I'm only saying that history shows that the Dodgers will not take Alvarez off the table in a potential trade strictly because of the money they have invested in him.

This actually looks like a much better deal from the Brewers end than the last proposal I had posted which did include top 50 prospect Verdugo but also had the Gennett going to the Dodgers and the Brewers picking up another 15 million in Kendrick's contract. So factor in those benefits, then also add in Buehler and Lux while subtracting out Verdugo and this seems like a real good deal from the Brewer's point of view. And I'd definitely take the combination of Lux and Stewart over Puig. Rather gamble and hope to get 12 years out of those guys rather than 3 years of Puig...especially when the Brewers don't figure to be contenders 2 out of those 3 seasons. The more I think about it the more I like this deal. Buehler is a risk because of the Tommy John surgery but was back on the mound at the end of last year which is encouraging. I really like Lux. Conquered Arizona and then posted a .441 OBP in the Pioneer League. Could be a plus lefty bat that can probably play anywhere in the infield. Being a Wisconsin kid has nothing to with my favorable opinion but it certainly doesn't hurt matters. He's another top 20 pick to throw in with this draft class of Ray, Erceg, Burnes and the rest of the guys...takes a really really good looking class of players and makes it that much stronger.

I would be willing to trade Braun and Thornburg for McCarthy, Ethier ($17.5MM in 2017 with a $2.5MM buyout in 2018), DeLeon, Sheffield and Barnes. This frees up $15MM in payroll space since Braun only earns $18MM next season ($4MM is deferred) while Ethier and McCarthy count for $29MM combined. Ethier has 10/5 rights. The only way he'd waive those rights is if Milwaukee guaranteed that full 2018 salary (17.5 million) which likely kills his inclusion in any trade with the Brewers.

Garza seems like a reasonable "hold" candidate through this off-season. It just doesn't seem like the Brewers could get anything of value at this time. However, teams are always looking for veteran starting pitchers that are performing fairly well leading up to the trade deadline. If Garza has an ERA in the low 4's and a WHIP in the low 1.3's in mid-July next year I believe he'll hold more value than he currently does. If the Brewers deal him this off-season I think the max return would be nothing more than a fringe prospect. About the only real gain to be had by trading him in the off-season is the Brewers would unload a percentage of his 2017 salary, and with the team's payroll so low there really isn't much of a benefit in that either.

Would this be a fair deal for both sides? Dodgers get: OF-Ryan Braun 2B-Scooter Gennett Brewers get: IF/OF-Howie Kendrick RHP-Brandon McCarthy OF-Alex Verdugo RHP-Brock Stewart RHP-Josh Sborz RHP-Trevor Oaks Kendrick has value because he can play all over, but 80% of his at-bat's this year was as a 2B or LF and acquiring both Braun and Gennett makes Kendrick an over-priced 15 million dollar piece for 2017 (Kendrick is only under contract for 2017 but is he's being paid 5 million in 2017, 5 million in 2018 and 5 million in 2019). With Kershaw, Maeda, Kazmir, Wood, Urias and De Leon, how does McCarthy, Stewart and Oaks even fit into the Dodger's future plans? All are very expendable pieces for them. Sborz is likely a middle reliever. The one really attractive piece is Verdugo, but the Dodgers would have Braun, Pederson, Toles, Thompson, Either (they are likely stuck with him) and Puig if they don't move him in another trade. And as far as prospects filling a hole left by the absence of Verdugo, Cody Bellinger might fit there (although I think he'll wind up at 1B), good chance Willie Calhoun does not stick at second base so he's in this picture, and Yusniel Diaz is another top 100 prospect that is probably one year behind Verdugo (and the Dodgers probably won't need another OF until then). Personally I think that return is pretty low considering it includes Braun and Gennett and the fact that the Brewers would be picking up 35 million in what essentially would be waste dollars for the Dodgers. But I think it provides a decent baseline for how low Stearns could go. Any offer from the Dodgers that is less than that and I think the Brewers are far off better just holding onto Braun.

When players sign big free agent deals, generally it's assumed by the team signing the free agent that the player will not be a top producer through the entire contract. Did the Yankees think C.C. Sabathia was going to be an ace pitcher through the 2016 season? Did Detroit believe that Fielder would be a top producer in years 8 and 9 of that deal? Probably not. It seems like every time one of these deals are signed the average salary per season seems about right but the contract always seems like it should be one or two years shorter. Braun type bats are worth over 20 million on the open market. Braun's remaining deal after 2016 guarantees him 80 million and the deal runs for 4 years. If the Brewer's take back McCarthy's contract, which to me truly seems like dead money to the Dodgers, it's 20 million dollars the Dodgers save and effectively brings the Braun commitment to 15 million per season. Even if Braun slips to a 2.0 WAR/season player, a 15 million dollar commitment is not a crazy number when in a market like LA. If the Brewers would take Kendrick's contract back and free the Dodgers of an additional 15 million in addition to McCarthy's 20 million, it bring the average annual value of Braun's deal down to a ridiculously cheap 11.25 million per season and Braun would not even need to maintain an average 1.5 WAR to make it worth it for the Dodgers. If Braun just repeats this year's performance next season his market value would be about 30 million and then the Dodger's have already returned about 2/3rds of the dollar value. If the Brewers take back Kendrick and McCarthy the Dodgers only really need Braun to be good through 2018 to make this deal worth it from the financial standpoint. And why would the Dodgers invest in 4 years and plan only getting two good seasons? The same reason the Tigers gave Fielder a 9 year deal when they probably could only reasonably expect to get 6 good seasons. Same for the Sabathia deal. Plan on getting good performance immediately and cross your fingers that the production still is reasonable towards the end of the deal. This is why I think the contracts eaten by the Brewers play such a big role in the return for Braun. I agree with those that think if the Brewers trade for Braun straight up, with no money or other contracts involved, that Milwaukee will be a pretty modest return. But if it gets to the point where the Brewers are taking 40% of Braun's contract back then the finances become so attractive, and the risk has become so diminished, that the Brewers should get a pretty solid return for Braun.

The .119 that baseball reference lists would probably refer to 119 days of service time. That is pretty standard nomenclature. So they had Puig with 2 full seasons + 119 days. The 119 days is roughly 2/3rds of the approximate 180 days that make up a season. He'll end up accumulating roughly 150 days this year (5 out of 6 months), so that would be 119 + 150 = 269 / 180 = 1.49 seasons when added to the previous 2 seasons bring him to ~3.5 years of service which will probably be listed at sites like Baseball Reference as 3.089 (3 years + 89 days...89 days being roughly 1/2 a season). All approximations but it sure appears that Puig is under team control for 3 seasons (next two are contract years, third year is an arbitration year).

I don't know if it's still a rule or not, but it used to be if a player was optioned to the minors for less than 20 days then they still would receive credit for a full year of service time. From what I can tell Puig was optioned out early in August and the total was greater than 20 days, so I'd estimate he'd be credited with approximately 5/6'ths of a season this year. His first game played was June 3, 2013 so credit him with roughly 2/3'rds of a season for 2013. Estimated service time: 2013 = 0.67 2014 = 1.00 2015 = 1.00 2016 = 0.83 Approximate service time at end of season should be 3.5 years. So if I have it figured correctly, he's under team control for 2017, 2018 and 2019. Since his contract runs two season, he'd be arbitration eligible in 2019. There is also a clause in Puig's contract that he can void the deal and opt for arbitration. Obviously that would be unlikely consider the type of year he's had. I don't claim to be an expert in service time rules, so if someone corrects me then they are probably correct and I am wrong.

Any concern that in the last two years Puig has been DL'ed with hamstring injuries 3 different times? Missed over half the season last year and probably would have missed about 25 games this year even if his performance had kept him in the starting lineup. Apparently he has a shoulder problem now but I doubt if that's much of an issue at all because he is healthy enough to start every time a lefty goes to the mound for the opposition.

If the Brewers and Dodgers can't agree on Puig's value, then Gennett might be a reasonable piece to send to LA if the Dodgers instead want the Brewers to take on Howie Kendrick's salary. Not really sure how the Dodgers would value Kendrick? He sure is getting a lot more playing time than Puig currently. Kendrick's ability to play all over the field adds to his value. On the flip side he is 33, definitely not a middle-of-the-order hitter and while consistent with the bat he's at the point in his career where his numbers figure to start declining. He is also only under team control through 2017. Rumors had the Brewer taking on both Puig and McCarthy, who combined have 34 million in salary guaranteed after this season. Kendrick + McCarthy have 35 million guaranteed after this season (Kendrick is only under contract for 2017 but gets 5 million dollar payments in 2017, 2018 and 2019), so if the Dodgers are looking at Braun's contract and want the Brewers to pick up ~40% of it then substituting Kendrick for Puig accomplishes that. It would really bump up the prospect return considering the Brewers would be losing 2 years of service time and a possible middle-of-the-order bat potential in a Kendrick/Puig substitution while also including Gennett in the deal.

Agree and disagree. If a team takes on Braun's entire contract, I wouldn't expect the Brewers to get much back in a trade. For example, if dealing with the Dodgers, I would expect trading Braun and no money (or taking no contracts back) would return something like OF-Starling Heredia, RHP-Imani Abdullah and maybe a third "fringe" prospect. However, if the Brewers take on the deferred portion of Braun's contract (18 million), as I've stated in "best guesses" earlier, I would anticipate the return being something like a top 100 prospect plus. Best guess would be something like Braun + 18 million for RHP-Yadier Alvarez + Heredia + Abdullah. I originally started with Grant Holmes but he was traded to the A's. Went with Verdugo after that but his status may have elevated him out of this particular scenario. But if the scenario includes trading Puig's contract (14 million guaranteed after this season) and McCarthy's contract (20 million guaranteed after this season)...that's 34 million the Dodgers are subtracting with the addition of Braun's deal. Now I'll be the first person in line to raise questions about Braun's health, the length of his deal and the potential BIG downside if his performance slips. His contract guarantees him 80 million after this season, but when subtracting out the 34 million of contracts going back to the Brewers it basically becomes a 4 year deal for LA at a guaranteed price tag of only 46 million. At 11.5 million per season, the potential gain in acquiring a top 20 OPS player (currently 17th) and top 25 offensive WAR player (currently 23rd by fangraphs) overwhelmingly outweighs the downside of what Braun's performance level might be in 2020. I definitely think this should land the Brewers a top 50 prospect plus. Note that a top 50 prospect wouldn't be an absolute necessity, but comparable value in "quantity" should be heading back to Milwaukee. To beat the dead horse just one more time, a big part of it depends on the value the Dodgers place on Puig. I would argue that the value would be "very minimal" but we'll just have to wait and see on that. They sent the player to the minors, seem to only be using him as a platoon player currently...and from information obtained in this thread 90% of MLB teams passed on him when on waivers and to this point not one team has offered the Dodgers anything over just taking his contract in trade talks. Add in the attitude problems and he doesn't seem like a player that holds much value at this point in time. And if that's the case, I don't think the Dodgers are going to find a better bat option on the market at a price tag of 4 years, 46 million dollars. If the Brewers can't land an absolute minimum of 1 top 100 prospect under these circumstances, then they just don't make a deal with the Dodgers. Complete no-brainer in my book. And just to bring up Buehler one more time...has front-line potential but could just as easily be another Zack Wheeler. I really, really like Buehler's potential but just too risky to be the top prospect coming to the Brewers in a Braun deal UNLESS the Dodgers just absolutely overwhelm Stearns with a "quantity" offer (say something crazy like Braun for Puig, McCarthy, Buehler, Heredia, Stewart, Abdullah, Brito and one more fringe prospect).

I wasn't even aware of how much playing time Puig was receiving. Since the beginning of September the Dodgers have played 12 games and Puig has started 5 games, been a pinch-hitter in 3 games and hasn't gotten off the bench in 4 games. Of the 5 games he's started, 4 of those have been when the opposing starter is a lefty...so essentially the Dodgers are just using Puig as a platoon player at this point. I guess in general the forum will just have to agree to disagree on Puig's value. He is an elite talent, no doubt. But his performance the last couple years hasn't been very good, there are the attitude issues and after a recent demotion he currently appears to be relegated to platoon player status. If this is the centerpiece of a Ryan Braun trade...then the Brewers just need to keep Ryan Braun on their roster.

Put me down as another who would reject this deal. While I like Buehler a lot it's hard to get over the fact that he's only thrown a handful of innings over the last two years. That makes Puig the centerpiece of this deal from the Brewer's standpoint and I don't think the centerpiece of a Braun deal should be an outfielder with 3+ years of service time and a bad attitude that will also potentially block younger players coming up from the minors. There is just no way, absolutely no way, that I would take back 34 million in salary spread over 2 seasons...2 seasons in which the team doesn't figure in as a pennant contender...and not get at least 1 top 50 prospect in return. Now Puig and McCarthy could maybe be flipped later, but the Dodgers couldn't work out a trade for Puig before the deadline and McCarthy will only have value once he proves that he is healthy which isn't very often. I still think there are plenty of other teams that match up with the Brewers (Astros in particular appear to be a great fit) and shopping Braun elsewhere rather than taking this deal would be an easy decision for me. I also don't think the no-trade clause will be that big of a deal. Why would Braun want to stay in the smallest market in baseball on a rebuilding team? He'll likely use his no-trade leverage to turn the option year of his deal into a player option and between the Brewers and a trade partner it's pretty likely they would work out the financials to get a deal done. And if the Dodger deal outlined above is the best offer the Brewers get, then I would be happy to keep Braun (although I probably do want him traded as much as anybody).

If Puig was dead money why haven't they traded him yet? They must have value in him or he would be gone. Many times teams have come knocking trying to get Puig by taking mainly just the contract. You're right. I shouldn't have used the term "dead money" because if the Dodgers really viewed Puig that way they would have let him go to the Brewers on the waiver claim. But I do think the Dodger's view his value to them as "very minimal" currently because otherwise I don't think they would have shipped him to the minors. I also don't think the rest of the league evaluates his value as being that much greater, because if it did I think at least one other team would have been willing to give the Dodgers something significant in a possible deal instead of just offering to take on his contract.

The biggest factor in the return the Brewers get for Braun is the amount of money they are willing to take on. Puig and McCarthy represent 34 million dollars, 42.5% of Braun's remaining guaranteed money. Even though the average annual value of Braun's deal remains at 21 million for luxury cap calculations, in terms of dollars actually paid out the deal becomes a 4 year, 46 million dollar investment for the Dodgers once the offset for the Puig/McCarthy deals are factored in (assuming they now consider those salaries dead money which it appears that they do). Braun at 4 years and 11.5 million per season...pretty safe to say the Brewers should land a big, big return under those circumstances. Best guess is that Jose De Leon was probably the piece that hung this deal up. Wouldn't be at all surprised if the Dodgers were willing to deal him but couldn't due to the problems they currently have with their rotation. If those problems get cleared up in the off-season, De Leon to the Brewers seems like a realistic scenario. If the second prospect piece is another top 100 player, and I think that would be likely considering the Brewers would be taking on both the Puig and McCarthy contracts, that would be a wonderful haul for Braun.

Thanks TooLiveBrew for the work you put into the transaction list. Wonderful reference as a recap of Stearns' first year. Minor note...Tyler Wagner was included in the Segura trade. Maybe should also include that Jed Bradley was sold to the Braves.

After landing both Brinson and Ortiz it was unlikely that the Brewers were going to get a third "true" top prospect in this deal. I was hoping the Brewers would get one of the better "role player" types out of the Ranger's system and they ended up getting the player that I had as the top player in that particular group. Would agree with the idea that Cordell probably shouldn't be listed at #6 on MLB.com's list because of age, low OBP, walk rate, etc...but no way should he be listed outside of the top 12 and when he's top 12 in a pretty good system then he's a legitimate prospect. I was expecting the Brewers would get somebody off the back half of that top 30 list so Cordell was definitely better than what I was anticipating. Also like Stearns approach in terms of getting top talent and seemingly not paying much attention to where they play. As much as we love the look of these prospects between Santana, Brinson, Ray, Clark, Phillips, Cordell it's almost a guarantee that half either won't make it or be disappointments as major leaguers. Stearns needs to stay in the mode of acquiring the best talent. And I am absolutely thrilled that Lucroy vetoed the deal with Cleveland. IMO he did the Brewers a big favor as I like the Lucroy/Jeffress for Brinson/Ortiz/Cordell swap much more than I liked that Cleveland deal.

Good observation by LouisEly on Payano's minor league service time. I would say that Payano's not having pitched the last two months will be an even bigger factor. At the time I thought he'd be the guy, but as of now I think he's a long-shot. How can Stearns justify taking a player that hasn't pitched in that timeframe? Have to believe that there will be at least one other player on the list that is more attractive than Payano. Two Rangers prospects made the BA Hot Sheet this week. RHP-Connor Sadzeck (AA, #12 on MLB.com Rangers top 30 prospect list) and SS-Anderson Tejeda (short season A, not listed on the top prospects list). Sadzeck looks to be rounding back into top form after having Tommy John surgery in 2014. Tejeda has played in 65 games this year split among three different clubs and has 34 extra base hits in those 65 games.

I still think something like the following is pretty reasonable and fair: Dodgers get: OF-Ryan Braun 8 million dollars Brewers get: OF-Yasiel Puig OF-Alex Verdugo OF-Starling Heredia RHP-Imani Abdullah (currently DL'ed so a player of similar value may need to be substituted) That was my line of thought prior to the trade deadline but I had RHP-Grant Holmes instead of Verdugo. Holmes was traded to the A's in the Reddick/Hill deal and Verdugo is probably closer in value to Holmes than any other player in the Dodger's system. People were suggesting De Leon in the Braun/Dodgers thread and it wouldn't surprise me if that was what killed the deal. Not unreasonable for the Brewers to demand him and it wouldn't be unreasonable for the Dodgers to give him up, but the timing to move De Leon is terrible from the Dodger's perspective. Their rotation just has too many injuries and De Leon certainly appears to be the next option. In the off-season that situation may work itself out and they might feel better about dealing De Leon...I really don't think that's something they could do at the present time. Also, the Dodgers probably would have been much better off going after Braun and paying top dollar for him in July. Reddick has slashed a horrible .161/.223/.172/.396 for them and so far Rich Hill has only thrown 6 innings (is scheduled to pitch again tomorrow). I believe Reddick and Hill are both free agents at the end of the year. So far that deal looks terrible for the Dodgers.

OF-Jairo Beras has made Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet each of the last two weeks. High ceiling/low floor prospect, it wouldn't shock me to see Stearns roll the dice on a player like Beras if he is on the on the list.

I would be interested in the waiver status of Chris Carter. Considering his salary and no guaranteed contract it's probably likely he would have been claimed if placed on waivers. His batting average is low but the far more important OBP is right at league average (Carter is at .322, MLB OBP at .321). His 30 home runs is tied for 14th in baseball. Offensive slash line not really that much different from Jay Bruce...the Reds didn't get a huge return for Bruce but got a couple of pretty decent candidates and there were other teams that were interested. Obviously Bruce and Carter are much different players when factoring in the defense but Bruce's defensive metrics have been horrible this year and not very good over the last three years. Carter is below average defensively but not terrible (-1 DRS, -2.1 UZR/150). Not suggesting that the Brewers should get a plus return for Carter...but it is strange that his name isn't popping up anywhere. I think he would be a significant upgrade for a team like the Mets or Astros.