JosephC

Luis Ortiz and Payano. Both very attractive prospects. Both had recent injury situations that I'd love to know more about.

He's interesting. One of the better looking prospects in the bottom half of the Ranger's top 30 list. Does your friend have any information about Payano being on the disabled list? Trying to find injury information on minor league players is a real pain in the behind.

I think Gallo's upside maxes out as an Adam Dunn type bat, except Gallo can't play the outfield and is probably limited to 1B as soon as he hits the majors (doubt that he sticks at 3B). I could live with a low batting average and a ton of strikeouts if the guy hits home runs and draws enough walks to post a good OBP, and there is a pretty decent chance that Gallo does that. Not unreasonable to see him slashing .240/.360/.520/.880. That being said, I'd still prefer to get five or six rock solid prospects from Texas rather than go Gallo or Brinson and wind up with one of those guys, one good prospect and one mediocre prospect. There is a chance to have the fourth and fifth pieces of this deal actually be quality prospects and it would be great to see the Brewers take that route (if available).

I'll take my guess: Texas gets: C-Jonathan Lucroy RHP-Jeremy Jeffress RHP-Junior Guerra Milwaukee gets: RHP-Luis Ortiz LHP-Yohander Mendez OF-Leody Taveras 1B-Ronald Guzman RHP-Ariel Jurado

A couple problems when dealing with the Rangers. RHP-Luis Ortiz was hurt, just came off the DL and threw 2 innings on Friday night. It's very possible he'd be the main piece in a deal so even a minor injury concern could be a big deal. RHP-Pedro Payano, who appears to be one of the better prospects further down the top prospect list, is also on the DL and hasn't pitched since July 7th. I don't think Gallo or Brinson is out of the question if the Brewers package Lucroy + Guerra + Jeffress, but if that's the case they probably wouldn't get much else out of the deal (maybe one more organizational top 10 type plus a fringe player). I'd rather see them try to land RHP-Luis Ortiz (provided he checks out medically), LHP-Yohander Mendez, OF-Leody Taveras, 1B-Ronald Guzman and RHP-Ariel Jurado for the big package they would be sending to Texas. MLB.com has Mendez as a top 100 guy but I that might be a bit generous based on the amount of work he's done. But there is no question that he's super talented and a high upside prospect and if he's not in the top 100 he is just outside of it. All five of these prospects are legit...there would be no "throw-ins" on this deal.

Best thing that can happen now is the Rangers totally strike out in their pursuit of a front-line starter. If that happens then they could turn to a Lucroy/Guerra/reliever package as their best option. And that type of a three player package should get a big return.

Well then maybe Stearns can really earn his money and package Lucroy and Braun in one deal. I really don't know why the Dodgers would be interested in Lucroy as Yasmani Grandal isn't a bad player by any means. He isn't as good as Lucroy, but if I had Grandal I wouldn't be looking to make a major upgrade at that position. Crazy Fantasy Deal: Dodgers get: C-Jonathan Lucroy OF-Ryan Braun RHP-Junior Guerra 8 million dollars Brewers get: OF-Yasiel Puig OF-Alex Verdugo RHP-Grant Holmes OF-Yusniel Diaz RHP-Yadier Alvarez OF-Starling Heredia RHP-Imani Abdullah C-Keibert Ruiz Trade started out Braun + 8 million for OF-Puig, RHP-Holmes, OF-Heredia and RHP-Abdullah. Assuming the Dodgers want to dump Puig (which really seems to be the case now), the basic structure is Braun for Puig and Holmes. The deferred money in Braun's deal (18 million) is 4 million more than what Puig is owed in 2017 and 2018 (14 million total), so the Brewers immediately add 4 million to the deal. Then the Brewers buy OF-Heredia and RHP-Abdullah for another 4 million to kick more cash to the Dodgers and buy a couple prospects in the process. So the new deal adds Lucroy and Guerra for four prospects: OF-Verdugo, OF-Diaz, RHP-Alvarez and C-Ruiz. Verdugo is a legit top 100 prospect and Diaz and Alvarez are two solid top 10 organizational prospects but neither are elite. Ruiz is a fringe player with some potential. Seems like a pretty fair return for Lucroy plus a hot starting pitcher. I wouldn't really like the idea of taking on Puig but if he is part of a deal that returns 2 top 100 players, 2 more top ten organizational players and two solid role player types with great upside...out of what could be the best minor league system in baseball...I'd learn to live with Puig under those circumstances. It will never happen but it's fun to dream. If the Dodgers want to dump Puig I do think it's a fair deal for both sides. The Dodgers would likely make the Brewers take Grandal too and then subtract a prospect out and that could work depending on which prospect it was.

Exactly. The media will get fed and report the "spin" but it all comes down to money and business and Lucroy tried to leverage his no-trade right into free agency and Cleveland wanted to trade for 1.5 years of Lucroy, not 0.5. The Brewers should have gotten feedback from Lucroy and his agent about what their demands would be for waiving the no-trade clause and been working with that knowledge when dealing with Cleveland. Even if Lucroy and his agent were tight-lipped, it's something that should have been anticipated by both the Brewers and the Indians and the details of the trade should not have become public knowledge like they did. People can bash Lucroy, but neither of the two organizations look very good right now either.

I totally agree that a comp pick for Lucroy would be a near disaster. But Stearns cannot set a precedent of taking low-ball offers for superstar players because if he gets that reputation then all MLB GM's treat the Brewers as the Mets do. I'm all for holding Lucroy for another 12 months if the right offer doesn't come along.

Time for Stearns to earn his money. Now all of MLB will low-ball him after seeing the apparent agreement with Cleveland (which wasn't very good). He'll have to figure out a way to package Lucroy plus pitching to get a decent return.

I must be missing something, if Lucroy wouldn't be Cleveland's starting catcher next year, who would be? Yan Gomes and his career .286 OBP? Gomes is a plus-plus catcher defensively but Lucroy is good behind the plate and there is no comparison when talking about the bats. Have to think that Cleveland would have been looking use Lucroy for 2 months and then flip him in the off-season to return some of what they gave up in the Miller trade.

I'm one who doesn't put a high value on relievers. Not at all. I think the Chapman and Miller trades involved ridiculous returns. But on the flip side, the return for Melancon doesn't seem very good. He is a rental and he makes big bucks, both which should diminish his value. I get that. But only getting what appears to be a setup man with upside plus another long-shot reliever doesn't seem like very much of a return for a guy that...well look at his track record over the last two and a half years. It's pretty staggering to look at the returns between the Chapman/Miller deals and the Melancon deal. It's almost like MLB is paying these other teams to overpay for Yankee bullpen guys to try to elevate the Yankees back to their place as kings on the MLB throne.

It will be interesting to see if the story behind the Lucroy veto is ever made public (other than some garbage statement like he loves to play in Milwaukee). Generally when trades occur that involve no-trade clauses and options years, the team where the player is heading agrees to pick up the option year of the deal. That obviously wasn't in play here because picking up that option year is a no-brainer. If anything, maybe Lucroy would only agree to waive the no-trade clause to Cleveland if the Indian's voided the option year, making Lucroy a free agent after this season. Obviously that really diminishes the value of this trade for Cleveland so if they refused then Lucroy would just veto the trade. He has obviously heard all the New York rumors and he (and his agent) probably figure they can use the no-trade clause to leverage a trade to a bigger market if the Brewers are ready to dump him regardless of the return. When a player is asked to waive a no-trade clause there is always something a player gets back in the deal. That's just the way this business is done.

Glad to hear that Lucroy vetoed that trade (I just wish I hadn't typed out that last post). This is an easy "hold" situation based on the Cleveland offer. Not worried at all on what the Brewer's missed out here. In terms of prospect value Allen and Armstrong are just "guys." If the Brewers shop Lucroy this coming off-season will the offers be so much of a downgrade from 1 "top 100 prospect" plus 1 "top 10 organizational prospect?" I doubt it. Easy hold situation for me. Only thing that sucks is that now every other team knows that Stearns is basically looking to dump Lucroy. I don't see anyway they get a decent return for him in the next 24 hours unless Stearns can figure out some package with Lucroy plus Jeffress/Smith/Thornburg/Guerra.

If you break down prospects into 6 groups: -Elite prospect (top 5 to 10 prospect in all of baseball) -Top 50 prospect -Top 100 prospect -Organizational top 10 prospect (on average, good systems will have more than 10, poor systems will have less than 10...roughly a top 300 prospect in all of baseball) -Role Player (generally a top 25 prospect in an average system...would roughly cover a prospect ranked between 301-750 in all of baseball) -Fringe Player I'd put the return as follows: C-Francisco Mejia (Top 100 prospect) SS-Yu-Cheng Chang (Organizational top 10 prospect) OF-Greg Allen (role player) RHP-Shawn Armstrong (fringe player) Mejia is not in MLB's top 100 but he is #70 in Baseball America's top 100. I tend to lean towards BA's view most of the time so I'd put him solidly as a top 100 player. Chang is borderline between an organizational top 10 prospect and a role player. He's listed at #12 on MLB's top 30 prospects for Cleveland and since Cleveland had one of the better minor league systems I'd bump him to the organizational top 10 prospect group. Greg Allen fits solidly in the role player group. Shawn Armstrong is borderline between the role player and fringe player groups. He is not ranked in MLB's top 30 prospects currently but has appeared between 20-30 in Baseball America's pre-season rankings for several seasons now. Highest he was ever listed was #20 prior to the 2013 season. BA had him at #21 prior to this season. I tend to downgrade him based only on his age and that he's strictly a bullpen guy, someone else could made a solid, legitimate argument that he is every bit the prospect that Allen is and should be put in the role player group. This is not saying that Armstrong is a long-shot to make an impact with the Brewers. He has already pitched in the majors and could step in right away and perform well. This only looks at his perceived value as a prospect, and he just isn't a highly rated player due to his age and the fact that he's a bullpen guy. I think this is a horrible return for Lucroy. The Brewers should have gotten at least 2 top 100 prospects or 1 top 100 prospect and 2 solid top 10 organizational prospects. Depending on how people view Chang, the Brewers might have ended up with only Mejia as a top 300 prospect. Subtracting Allen or Armstrong and adding McKenzie would have made this a solid trade for Milwaukee, but the third and fourth pieces of this trade are not nearly good enough to justify only getting Mejia as a top piece in the group.

I'll go with: Cleveland gets: C-Jonathan Lucroy LHP-Will Smith Milwaukee gets: C-Francisco Mejia RHP-Mike Clevinger RHP-Triston McKenzie SS-Yu-Cheng Chang LHP-Rob Kaminsky

Any chance that Pittsburgh cleared Melancon's salary to make a play for Lucroy? Wishful thinking anyway.

I could see Stearns really liking both Cecchini and Nimmo because both of those guys could be high OBP players in the majors. But I don't know how much else they would bring to an MLB roster. I don't think Cecchini sticks at SS or Nimmo in CF. If they have to move is there enough pop in their bats to play a corner spot? Cecchini would have a chance to be a really good second baseman, but how highly would the Brewers value him with Arcia/Diaz as two of their best prospects? IMO neither Cecchini or Nimmo qualify as great athletes. That's the problem with dealing with the Mets. These guys are top five prospects in their organization but wouldn't be in most organizations. If these same players are in the Brewer's system they probably stack up ranked in the area of 8-10. Either would be an excellent player to get as a third piece in a Lucroy trade...but it's more than likely that either of them would be the best prospect the Brewers get out of the Mets. I sure hope it doesn't happen.

I'd stick with both SS-Amed Rosario and 1B-Dominic Smith (plus more) as being essential to a Lucroy trade. Take those two off the board, and there just isn't enough quality depth in their system to get a deal done.

Obviously if the right deal comes along Guerra gets traded. But if I'm another team I'd be looking at him as a flash-in-the-pan and wouldn't be willing to give that much up for him. There just isn't that much of an MLB history there. Like with Jeffress, Guerra might be a better "hold" candidate until he establishes more of a track record.

I'd love to have Naquin as a part of the trade. Sure he is playing over his head right now but virtually anyone with a 1.024 OPS would be playing over their head. The only reason he wasn't considered to be in the same class as Zimmer and Frazier was because of injuries and a lack of power. Now he gets to Cleveland and has hit 12 home runs in 212 plate appearances (I would agree that he won't continue on that pace). Injuries were a broken hand and concussion, things that don't figure to be long-term issues. His defensive metrics have been terrible so far in his MLB career but he was reported to be a plus fielder and the best among himself, Frazier and Zimmer defensively. So while his offense will go down his defense should get much better. Not at all hard to see him as a .280/.350/.440/.790 type of player that will play plus defense. I'd put his value in the same group as 1B-Bobby Bradley and C-Francisco Mejia and if Cleveland wanted to put Naquin in a trade instead of one of those other guys I would still be listening. That being said, I don't think it would make much sense for Cleveland. If you are in a pennant race, why subtract one of the hottest bats out of the lineup when you have so many comparable pieces in your minor league system that you can deal instead?

I don't think the Brewers could get Dominic Smith for any of their relievers. If Will Smith goes to the Mets, I'd hope the return would be something like LHP-Thomas Szapucki and RHP-Merandy Gonzalez. Would be pleased with a return like that.

I'd guess two. Both from the Lucroy trade. If Braun is dealt that would add another one and maybe a second to the total, but Braun probably won't be moved.

If the Dodgers are ready to deal Puig, do you think this would be a fair deal for each side? Dodgers get: OF-Ryan Braun 8 million dollars Brewers get: OF-Yasiel Puig RHP-Grant Holmes OF-Starling Heredia RHP-Imani Abdullah Thought process is the basic deal is Braun for Puig and Holmes, but Puig's money for 2017 and 2018 is 4 million less than Braun's defered money so the Brewers throw in 4 million immediately to balance that out. Then they basically purchase Heredia and Abdullah for 4 million to get the deal to go through.

A trade with Detroit is the same dead on arrival situation as would be with the Mets. At least the Mets could give up both their top prospects (which they wouldn't) plus a couple more guys each way to even things out, but the Tigers don't even have that. I wouldn't consider a deal with the Tigers even if they offered any five players out of their minor league system.