One issue with pitchers, is that the majority of the top pitchers were taken high in the draft. In many cases, most teams don't even get a whiff at the chance to draft them. If you look at where David Price, Justin Verlander, Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, Zach Grienke and company were drafted, it's high in the draft. Price and Verlander were at the top. There are always exceptions to the rule. Statistically, pointing to an outlier like Arrieta and saying that can happen is not a statistically valid analysis. In that case, you'd have to look at what an exceptional case he is statistically from all the other pitchers who are aces. Arrieta does not change the fact that, it is imperative to seize your chance to get a front line pitcher high in the draft because the Arrieta opportunity is so rare. Melvin did a great job getting Diplan as a teen for Gallardo. Diplan was the top int'l draft prospect his year. Melvin did well with some trades where we got much more for players than many thought we could. Trading for lottery ticket arms is definitely a viable option. But seizing on front line pitching high in the draft when it comes your way is important.