Austin Tatious

Sorry, I don't follow. If what you're talking about is trading for "proven" talent that is 'MLB ready' or established, that's exactly what Melvin has done in his tenure here, rather than trading for unproven, highly-ranked prospects. Yeah, there have been some trades for the likes of Capellan or de la Rosa (who also were in the upper levels of the minors and made their MLB debuts quickly) but far more have been for younger, MLB ready assets like Segura, Capuano, Gomez, etc when he's traded a proven commodity. I'm referring to what we need to be doing going forward and referring to returns on our marketable veterans. Asset values of prospects need to be measured properly. When we kick around trade theories on this site, I get a kick out of some of the theoretical returns. You take a proven guy, an all star, and get a return of a top 80 prospect plus fodder. Well, Dominguez proves that top 80 prospects can be meaningless if they can't cross the sound barrier into proven MLB commodity. Beyond that, the really good managements understand asset valuation. How can I have another career and still like Gallo over Haniger and see the Gallo potential as an asset value at that draft slot, but the Brewers couldn't? How good would he look now? Haniger always had that 4th outfielder feel, while Gallo had limitless power coming out of Vegas. The Brewers took Haniger. Milwaukee has misused premium draft pick assets on low ceiling values like Arnett, Jungmann, and Bradley. It's like having the money for an Escalade and buying a Chevy. Its not a scouting failure. There is a decision tree on understanding the value of your resources. Last year, the Brewers had the 12th pick. That's pretty high, and took Medeiros. We are all rooting for him. But, again, it's a misuse of asset valuation. He's a guy with a weird arm slot with poor command. That's not what you want with the 12th overall pick. Is he going to be a top 30 prospect in the league eventually or a future reliever like Jeremy Jeffress, another first round pick who had questions about viability as a starter and ended up a reliever? Read the top 50 prospect lists and how they get there. They fit profiles by and large the Brewers don't focus on. All teams miss on picks. The Brewers miss regularly and there is a decision making systemic problem that goes beyond scouting. It goes to allocating value to assets. You have to profile guys that fit the value of the asset of the pick. The point is not second guessing the misses. It's second guessing missing the decision making. The ideas are wrong. I like Ray Montgomery. There was some good upside this year. Clark has skill. But they could have gotten a Clayton Kershaw type on an injury risk with Brady Aiken. He went two picks later so it was reasonable. At least Clark, unlike Medeiros, also figures to be a top league prospect. But, we need our Madison Bumgarner type who is home grown or we will never win big. It's just not going to happen until we get that guy. The guy who can go into a playoff series and is a lock for two wins.

Dominguez is a great instructive example of how prospects are overrated as bargaining chips and measuring asset values. This is a guy who was, what, a top 80 prospect? That averages to like a top 3 prospect per team. He can't produce a decent OPS. Enough data is in on his OPS to get the idea. He had that 21 homer season, but the metrics around it weren't promising and beyond that he hasn't sustained it. Yet, if he were 20 now and in his prospect heyday and you looked at his ranking at a premium position with his good athleticism for defense, you'd think he'd be considered a sizable return for a proven MLB trade asset that Milwaukee is looking to move. Proven major league talent is just that, proven. Prospects aren't. That jump from prospect to proven is massive. It's like crossing the sound barrier. But it's not taken into account in asset valuation for trades. When you make a trade and you have a proven commodity, you can't give it away for a lottery ticket that could collapse badly. Look at how many Mat Gamel's and Taylor Green's are strewn by the side of the road who did literally nothing. In the new Brewers regime, I would use math to look at relative values of assets because I don't think it's understood well. The Brewers can't take their talent and trade it for a bunch of guys that will be Dominguez, Delmonico, Gamel, Taylor Green, etc. We need real assets back. Expenditures and value of assets has not been Melvin's strong suit. I could go on and on, on this. It's also how draft picks and international markets are used. There isn't a great master strategy to pick players commensurate with asset values for draft positions. Doug is a nice guy and old school, but we need higher level strategic thinking.

Louis, I don't think you can mandate that anyone drafted in the first three rounds has to go pro. But, why not do it the NBA way that you have to register for the draft? In or out and give the clubs certainty. I wonder if this is something the Union has gone against for whatever reason.

Great topic and subject. It's very complicated with many legal issues, including collective bargaining points. I'd love to hear opinions from others. Something else that's beyond absurd is how international players are handled. With the influx of Cuban players, this is even more critical now. Part of the fix here has to be how the international market is addressed. We go to all the trouble to have a US and Canadian draft, then we let the Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers and Bosox go bonkers in the international market. The Brewers get one solitary big time guy in Lara and we act like we split the atom while those other clubs get a bunch of them. This all needs fixed. It's all very primitive. But these are all related under "fixing the draft."

Austin Allen the catcher and David Thompson the 3b, two guys I really liked, just missed them. Total bummer. This will be a fun thread to revisit in 3 years.

Well, we drafted three fairly high upside pitchers that are kind of like lottery tickets. Maybe one of them emerges as a top of the rotation type. I would have drafted Brady Aiken, which was proven up as he was taken two picks later so I wasn't "way off". I also like Chris Betts so if I came out of it with Aiken and Betts I would have been happy. We will see if I ended up right or if Ray Montgomery ended up right. Having said all that, I do like Trent Clark, at least he is a high IQ batter and a top of the order, high OBP guy with 4 tools. I was terrified we were going to take a low upside college arm. So, at least the consolation is that we took a batter with smarts from the left side, which we lack, and then took 3 lottery tickets on decent upside pitchers right after that. Who knows how projectable the high school pitcher is. It could be anything on his ceiling. So, there's that.

Darn Twins got Cabbage

Someone mentioned David Thompson out of the U. 3rd baseman. He's another guy I'd like to get. I hope we can get him or Cabbage in the 4th.

Good list. Trey Cabbage is very intriguing. He has some skill set that Scott Rolen had coming out of high school in Indiana. Rolen was also an athletic basketball player who could move. Obviously Rolen ended up being an all time great third baseman and a borderline hall of famer so I'm not comparing them like that. Rolen's athleticism translated to phenomenal defense at the hot corner. Cabbage is well put together and broke a rim in basketball recently. He can move too. Cabbage bats left too. I'm not a scout, but doing the math he sounds like a really prospect at 90. I'd really like to get an athletic 3b like that into the system. http://www.wbir.com/story/sports/preps/2015/06/08/baseball-a-family-affair-for-graingers-trey-cabbage/28708851/ http://www.wbir.com/videos/sports/2015/06/08/28710795/

Thanks, due80. That's helpful. I honestly need a tutorial on how the international money works but what you provided gives me a nice start. I see that the teams get a pool that relates to inverse records, similar to draft order. But, I know that you can also make trades for international money and that there are spending penalties and caps. The trades, caps, and spending periods are all mystifying to me. Oh well, I do appreciate your link because it gets me on the path. I agree with your premise to possibly load up in 2016 because after Moncada went to the Bosox I haven't heard much from the Brewers. On the other hand, we do remember that last year Doug Melvin was royally ticked off that the Lara thing got leaked so early so it is possible we are in on someone and it's not public. Maybe the fact that we tried with Moncada is a hopeful sign?

Interesting recent article on Brady Aiken with more current scuttlebutt about him. Cubs and Braves mentioned. http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2015/jun/05/brady-aiken-2015-mlb-draft/2/?#article-copy

Can anyone explain what the Brewers have available to spend? It's very confusing. Last year they spent $3.1 M on Lara. I believe the Brewers made a trade with Oakland for some international salary slot for 2015. So how much money does Milwaukee have in 2015? The system is rather confusing.

Thanks, WV. That's a fair concern. But is the Strasburg collapse related to TJ or something else? It doesn't seem clear. Here's a link mentioning a neck problem, not his elbow, and that he still has a heater http://www.federalbaseball.com/2015/6/1/8700007/whats-wrong-with-the-nationals-stephen-strasburg-problem-is-no-one Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Mark Prior had his career derailed by TJ surgery. He had weird mechanics and a series of injuries, including an Achilles and a shoulder. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Prior The Brewers' inability to develop 1-2 front line, elite starters has really set back the organization. I like Peralta and Nelson as mid rotation guys, which is a semi-victory. But we need to identify top of the rotation makeup, mechanics, and stuff. It hasn't happened, and it's been a downfall. Sheets could have been our guy as an ace but for injuries. Getting an ace starter reminds me of getting a franchise quarterback in the NFL. You need one. Can Aiken be a gift? It may be a risk but guys come back from TJ all the time if patience is a virtue. Stash him for 2015 and work him up starting in 2016.

For a comp for Brady Aiken, in 2014 at one point, Jeff Hoffman was considered to have potential as the first pick in the draft but also needed to have TJ surgery for the ulnar ligament. Even though he couldn't pitch in 2014, the Jays still took him 9th. He started pitching a week or two ago in 2015. Isn't that a comp for Aiken? Different thoughts? http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Hoffman

I like this.

Honestly, the biases against small market teams are simply not as strong as they used to be. You can build effectively in a small market and be competitive. There are competitive balance picks, compensatory picks, and other trade offs. Look around at smaller market teams being competitive. Basically, build a young core and profit. If you run your organization properly, it's not hopeless like we once felt it was. Personally, I think the Brewers need a complete organizational overhaul. From a teaching standpoint, we have a low baseball IQ across the board. It's a virus that has infected the entire organization. All aspects are affected. Batters do not work counts properly. Make the opposing pitcher work. Consistently, we don't do that. Pitchers and catchers do not manage games properly. The number of gopher balls are a testament to that. It's not just "execution." Base running gaffes can be embarrassing at times. I'd take a look at every single minor league coach, manager, roving instructor, guru, etc and get the entire organization working in concert. It's obviously not happening properly right now. The only thing that is consistent is that the entire organization is dysfunctional. There has to be a teaching problem, from the bottom up. The players aren't just showing up in Milwaukee with a wrong mentality. It hasn't been properly drilled into them from the beginning. I'd get a baseball czar from a first class organization like the Giants or Cardinals who takes a look at every instructor we have from the bottom up and gets this organization fixed from a baseball IQ standpoint. I'd also get more math and analytics in here. We can't get Andrew Friedman or Theo, but maybe Mark A can find someone of that ilk who is up and coming. Certainly, our player acquisition needs improvement. That's part of it. But, our baseball operations needs an entire restructure on the player development side too, and I'd like our new GM and baseball President to spearhead this with a fervor.

I missed earlier what they were saying about Blazek. What's the plan with him? Are we working Blazek into the rotation or saving him for a piggy back for extended work for Fiers tomorrow?

Splitter made a great reference above to Ke'Bryan Hayes, son of Charlie. I don't know if he gets to our competitive balance pick or not (40 if I recall correctly). Love the kid's IQ and bloodlines. I think we'd be lucky if we could get him. He's got a passion for the game and knows the game. http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/5/5/8555147/2015-mlb-draft-profile-kebryan-hayes-3b-concordia-lutheran-hs-tx In this interview, you've gotta love his enthusiasm. I want guys like this in my organization. http://www.baseballessential.com/news/2015/05/04/kebryan-hayes-sit-down-prospect/ This is my kind of player. I predict he will be on top 100 player lists in due course.

One prep arm that profiles pretty well might be Nikorak from PA. He sort of sounds like the type of guy that the Cardinals or Pirates might do well with. http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/4/28/8505113/2015-mlb-draft-profile-mike-nikorak-rhp-stroudsburg-hs-pa

I'm intrigued by Michael Reed. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he may actually have plate discipline.

The more research I do, the more concern I have about the crop of 1st round pitchers other than Aiken (despite the injury). On Aiken, he's a top of the draft talent who has had an injury where lots of guys have recovered. Let's be smart about it. On the other pitchers, we shouldn't force it if the right guy isn't there. The Baseball America guys are saying a lot of these pitchers are back of the rotation types and maybe mid-rotation types in a peak year or two. That's not what I had in mind. I do not want another high floor college arm that doesn't inspire greatness. We shouldn't be drafting back of the rotation guys in the first round. I don't mean this year. I mean, ever. Those are the types of guys in the 4th (like Wagner) or even 22d round (like Fiers) who continually bubble up in your system. They are not who you are striving to get in the 1st. That's where you're trying to get cornerstone pieces like critical pitchers or key position players. Not back of the rotation pitchers with high floors (like Arnett, Jungmann or Bradley, who, ironically, have low floors in the end) or utility guys or guys who really end up being relievers (like Jeffress, and I suspect, eventually Medeiros with his bizarre arm slot). Personally, I'd be thinking outside the box on Brady Aiken. This guy has the stuff and command to be more top of the rotation. While the Cardinals draft Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha in the 1st round, the Crew draft Taylor Jungmann, Jed Bradley, and Eric Arnett. Enough precincts are in to realize that it's not just dumb luck. Last year, we drafted Medeiros, 12th overall. Now, we hear he has command issues and can't pitch to spots. Mederios doesn't fit the profile of those Cardinals guys. Eventually he may be a situational reliever. This, from the 12th pick. Look at what the Cards get out of their number one picks. Look at what we do. Look at what both sides have in common. There are trends and institutional theories within the organizations. If the pitcher doesn't have high end rotation stuff, makeup, and mechanics, I don't want to hear it in the 1st round. There's too many fish in the sea. Go somewhere else. Chris Betts has great size at catcher. Get a stud position player. These pitchers look problematic. I hope a kid like Brady Aiken doesn't go to a smart franchise like the Cardinals, Bosox, Yankees or the like and ends up on all the top 20 prospect lists, while we get a Taylor Jungmann type in the Funkhouser kid or some equivalent. "The Brewers drafted a pitcher 15th overall who projects as a back of the rotation starter..." Three years from now on Brewerfan.net, someone will get lectured, "You're stupid. the Dodgers will never trade Aiken, he's ranked the 5th best prospect in baseball. Funkhouser has a 5.40 era at Biloxi, but he was a good pick because he was a top 5 projection at the time." The real issue are these threshold organizational decisions in the first place. Let's hope the Brewers make good decisions. None of us are getting younger. It's not just about scouting. Honestly, there is critical thinking involved. We need guys with intellectual horsepower. We are at the mercy of Ray Montgomery and whether he will think properly for all of us.

Honestly, I'd like to get a couple. It reminds me of when we had Salome and Lucroy on the way. As I recall (off the top of my head), Salome was initially further along, but Lucroy ended up being the guy. I like that we doubled down. I like what I am hearing about the Leal kid, but he's a low level draft pick who's doing well. I want a couple more really good prospects at catcher.

I just saw he's having knee surgery and came to post it.

I'm so desperate for a top shelf starter that I'd be very tempted by Aiken and Matuella, in that order. I can't comment on the medical and particularly the small ulnar nerve on Aiken. That would need the medical expertise, obviously. I'd be ecstatic with either of them. Over the moon. If it's money and not medical, I'd just be creative and find a way financially. Balance the financials on other picks as Splitter mentioned above. I would prioritize that. We really need the elite pitcher one way or another. We need that asset. I don't want a rotation of 2s, 3s and 4s forever. Let's get our home grown Kershaw. When he's in his 3rd year, extend him. It can be done. If the medicals aren't there, as I said earlier in the thread, I just think Chris Betts really sounds like a great prospect that fills a huge void. Big kid and the reports I've read said he can stick at catcher at 6'3 with a left handed stick. Last year I liked the Schwarber kid and was shocked he went 3rd to the Cubs. Betts would be my consolation.

I feel like there are some, certainly not all, Brewer fans with defeatist attitudes toward the values of Brewer assets as compared with assets of big market clubs. The national media has always been locked into the likes of the Redsox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Angels, etc. In the media and public, their assets are inflated and Brewer assets are under appreciated. But, look at what the Brewers got for Greinke on a rental. Solid. Look what they got for Gallardo for one year. A top 100 guy at a premium position in Sardinas and high draft pick with a power arm in Knebel plus a lottery ticket in Diplan. Garza is not old and his contract is not onerous. He is a middle of the pack starter with a bulldog attitude. Teams trying to compete need tough starters who will battle. His contract is going rate. He had a few rocky starts. Big deal. General managers realize veterans have some ups and downs but Garza has a track record. Last year, he started cranking and got on a roll. We are seeing signs of that again. He's, what, 31? C'mon. I'm confident that Melvin is not giving Garza away. A team trying to contend will have to give back some good prospects to get him. The package for Gallardo is in the zone of what I'd expect. Garza is older but under longer control. It could be an interesting negotiation. Time will tell but I have hopes.