brewcrewdue80

Houser, Peralta, Suter, Kneble, Hader. Claudio, Burnes, Brown, Supak, Derby? Theres a lot there still removing one for the rotation. And thats off top of my head or recent look for Rotaion. Devin Williams is another.

Ooh. Good bring up. Got quite enamoured by Donaldson signing forgot I had mentioned in Hader trade ideas the Twins could use him to counteract what the White Sox have done. I'd have to go find my trade idea. But it is even a bigger better move towards WS aspirations vs. Winning division aspirations now. (Slightly counterproductive for Milw if goal is winning a WS)

I dont see a stint on the IL being a player playing a full season of games. He also left a game after 1 inning and missed the next 4 games. Any IL stint imo means you didnt play a full season of games. Can I call in sick at work once every 10 days and then tell them I worked a full year? He missed 10% of games in 2018. 146 vs 162. 147 is game 163 for the team.

Rotation as of now: Woodruff Lindblom barring an awful looking ST Anderson Lauer Houser #6 as Peralta You have Burnes and even Brown to dig deeper. Suter is an option. Deeper Supak or Derby. Rasmussen? The X factor here is Lindblom and where he settles in to rotation. Anderson fits as a #3 or 4 just fine when healthy. Lauer has a better Fip than his rookie season and a similar Fip settles as a quality 4 with upside to 3. Houser is better statistically as a RP but his SP stuff fits fine for a #5 Likewise you can say the same for Peralta who had a poor 2019 starting but was better in 2018 with a consistent stretch of starts Burnes/Brown. 1 of them has to come back from their 2019 season right? That can be more than enough to convice spot starts or replacing an injury or a #5 spot. Suter who knows. He's the Hernan Perez for the Pitching staff heading in to 2020. Supak has had natural progression and that ends up on to the Brewers in 2020 if continues. Derby is the Aaron Wilkerson for 2020. When it all goes Fubar, Okay Derby you're up. I think the staff stands a good chance to be around 4ERA and just under while pitching at least 2 more outs on average per start.

Yelich has a longer list of injury history and will be 31 moving forward from his current contract. So why is Donaldson's bump in the road and age a concern, but not Yelich's? Yelich's best season to War sits 3rd for Donaldson. OK. So Yelich just played basically 4 straight full seasons outside of missing the last few weeks. Granted, it's lucky timing to have the injury happen at the end so he barely missed time. But that and being age 31 instead of 34 are drastically different, if you don't agree then so be it but it's seems fairly clear to me. Now, how about this scenario. We buyout a couple years of FA from Yeli and he hits FA at age 33. But he essentially is injured the two previous seasons leading up to that age 33/34is FA. You still want to hand him a mega deal? Apparently you do and don't think 33/34 years old isn't a big enough flag, then adding two injury filled seasons prior to aren't flags then I guess you don't think anything is a flag. Sign everyone, big contracts to mid 30s players always turn out great. Who am I kidding. Come on man or woman, Yelich went on the DL for an Oblique injury beginning of 2018 season. Then he had to miss essentially 5games due to his back. Which is what caused him to miss time Again in 2019. A HR Derby in 2019. 14games in 2019 outside of the "few weeks" to end 2019. That is not 4 straight seasons. In 2014 his Back caused him to miss games for Miami. That is an injury history to be concerned about. Oblique or Back. Far more than a Calf Strain. And I have no idea what Yelich will be like returning from the kneecap injury until he's back on the field. Donaldson is a full year removed from the calf strain and played a "full season" of games in 2019. Thinking on a Yelich extension. Buying out ages 32 and 33 uh? So he gets his first chance at FA at age 34 right? That's laughable. Think about that. Testing FA after age 31 is the best chance he's going to get at a mega deal. Vs. this Donaldson deal far from it going in to age 34. It just may be perfect with the timeframe on signing the extension with Miami. Great guarantee and test FA at 31 going to 32. If Milw finds a way to give Yelich an extension it has to be 5years beyond if not 6 currently to even give Yelich the thought to do so. Now, if 2020 he's clearly affected by his injury to knee on top of back needing breaks, he may consider a deal less than 5 years extended. His current value is to test FA or sign a 5year or more extension that exceeds 100mil.

First Bold: just turned 34 and will be entire 2020 season. 2nd Bold/italic: 2018 and the injuries would be a reason why. Maybe JD didn't want to sign a contract longer than 1year with a prove it season to build on his FA value. 3rd Bold/Italic/Underline: He has 2 years with injury history. 2017 a Calf strain. 2018 a Deadarm IL stint and then calf strain returning. 2 is fewer than a few years. This isn't a Ryan Braun type injury history where thumb/back/intercoastals/groin etc as alarms to further injury concerns. This isn't a collection from 3 or 5 years ago to go with the injuries in 2018. This is a Calf strain. And deadarm to start a season after returning from said calf strain initial injury. He's a year removed from the strained calf. That is not an injury that I'd be concerned with being a constant nagging injury for him and returning. Pretty much the next injury he will incur to keep him out of games, will be the first time this injury happened to him. 62% of his career self is all that needs to be accomplished to make the value of the contract. He can miss some major time and be worth every penny to this contract. Okey dokey. You don't think a guy being injured for a couple straight years around age 32ish is a reason for concern and that 34 is not old (for a baseball player). Carry on. Calf. We're talking about a simple Calf injury that he is over a year's time removed from, and a full season's worth of games played without it returning. This is rehabbed and easily avoided from reoccurring by this stage. I wouldn't make this argument if he had one occurrence of this injury during his 2019 season. But by now enough time has passed without it coming back to make this a non-issue. Play this scenario out: 2017. Dr. How this injury occur? JD: I think it occured while overswinging or trying to leap on a defensive play. Dr.: Okay rest and these exercises to help your calf muscle. Don't try to come back too soon from this injury or overuse your calf muscle. 2018: Dr. So JD what brings you here? JD: I was overtraining my calves during the offseason in my workout program unlike what you told me. I thought making them stronger would help prevent the injury returning. Dr. Well, now you know better and what are we going to do? JD: The exercises you gave me in 2017, rest, and not overtraining the calves anymore. JD in 2019: No calf strains.

Yelich has a longer list of injury history and will be 31 moving forward from his current contract. So why is Donaldson's bump in the road and age a concern, but not Yelich's? Yelich's best season to War sits 3rd for Donaldson.

First Bold: just turned 34 and will be entire 2020 season. 2nd Bold/italic: 2018 and the injuries would be a reason why. Maybe JD didn't want to sign a contract longer than 1year with a prove it season to build on his FA value. 3rd Bold/Italic/Underline: He has 2 years with injury history. 2017 a Calf strain. 2018 a Deadarm IL stint and then calf strain returning. 2 is fewer than a few years. This isn't a Ryan Braun type injury history where thumb/back/intercoastals/groin etc as alarms to further injury concerns. This isn't a collection from 3 or 5 years ago to go with the injuries in 2018. This is a Calf strain. And deadarm to start a season after returning from said calf strain initial injury. He's a year removed from the strained calf. That is not an injury that I'd be concerned with being a constant nagging injury for him and returning. Pretty much the next injury he will incur to keep him out of games, will be the first time this injury happened to him. 62% of his career self is all that needs to be accomplished to make the value of the contract. He can miss some major time and be worth every penny to this contract.

Oh I forgot to add that moving back to the AL, Donaldson will accrue more PAs to earn a higher WAR than what he would predictably from the NL. So seeing his 6WAR value in Atl in 2019, may be why it dropped to 6 vs the 7+ it had been in the AL with Toronto 4 years straight. Considering his defense isn't a problem but just may become one? For age sake, there is the DH to downgrade him to. Can still provide 4+War from there. This is a steal of a deal. Better than Cain's even because yr 5 is an option. The only way you can consider this a bad deal is if you considered Cain's deal a bad deal. Otherwise you're just playing the game where you find a way to make every deal ok in your head unless it's such a minor deal(like LoMo or Sogard's) 21mil a year for a 6+WAR player. Only 2018 was he not on his way to a 6WAR season and that year he dealt with the injuries almost from start of the season. What are GMs doing? What was Stearns doing? I mentioned the only thought I can put is they really believe Lucas Erceg is about to arrive on the scene at 3b for them. Cheap and with 6years+ control. Stearns couldn't fit a need any better otherwise than with JD. It presented Milwaukee with the need met with Cain's signing.

2017 missed 39 games to a calf strain. 2018. He missed 19games to shoulder inflammation. And later 89 games due to the Calf Strain returning. 2018 played full season of games as he did 2013-2016. So his injury history is a Calf Strain and a "Dead Arm" break. A total of 147games in 7 seasons. He's a full season removed from that calf strain keeping him out of games. Any time he's been on the field he'd producing elite stuff in the 7WAR range. To his new contract price He needs to just produce 14.74 WAR to reach the value of the contract of 4 years. Add year 5 and it's 17.54 Break it down to yearly and that is just 3.69WAR years 1, 2, 3, and 4. Take it to 5years to 100mil it drops to 3.51 WAR. Take a low year(age regression) of the 6WAR he was worth last season, he only needs to produce at 61.5% of that to reach the 3.69WAR or an average of 93games when compared to a full season of games. 4 years to be 62% of himself to make the contract worth it. If he has 2015 and 2016 seasons for 2020 and 2021 he'll have earned his contract and the Twins are free-rolling in the final 2/3years in the contract. Top 10 in Baseball in Barrelled Balls. Top 5 in Exit Velocity. Top 5 in Hard Hit pct. Top 10 in BB% Are these signs of a hitter's ability diminishing? The Barrel, Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, and BB% were all career highs for him. Oh and I just seen he's actually taken a Pay Cut! from his previous 2 seasons of 23mil each. I chimed in some White Sox signing, that the Twins basically dealt with all career highs from their batters as to why not compare them as a 100win in 2020. This signing just made it a fore gone conclusion they'll reach 100Wins barring serious injuries to multiple players. I just seriously have problems that age is cause for regression and good contracts at the time turning out being bad when it comes from certain players doing it for years leading up to the contract above and beyond what you expect from a player that age at such a position. Nelson Cruz(on 2nd year of 2yr deal with Twins) just put up 4.3WAR for them at age 38 and has been above 4.3WAR 5 of last 6 seasons. Twins GM/Owner need to win whatever award is of the year after it because they identified the market inefficiency in teams shying away on older players that possess high ceilings still in their 30s. They'll have over 10WAR from those 2 over the hill players. For the Brewers that is only Christian Yelich last year and high enough to add Woodruff and or Moustakas to 10WAR combined. If Yelich were on the Twins last season you could mix 8 players to reach 10WAR or more. This is equivalent to Cain's deal who just needed 14WAR to cover the contract over 5years. 2.8WAR avg a year 23.3 WAR the previous 5 seasons. Or about 60% value to what he'd produced a year to reach the value of the contract. I rest my case.

With a 5th year option at 16mil. If you pick up that option its 4years 84mil. 5th year to 100mil.you buyout the option at 8mil. Its a great deal for Minnesota. Donaldson is going to make a lot of teams regret not paying him. Milw especially. 21mil a year. Followed with either 8 or 16 yr 5. Brutal you couldnt do that. 6WAR player for 21mil. Most needed position to fill with that quality. This is not the signing where I go, Yeah glad we didnt sign him to that much. We should have exceeded that offer. 5/100 w/o option easily. Im shocked this is what he's getting.

Just thinking. You know the big difference to take from this game than games from regular season? I feel like every pass and catch happened to Jimmy Graham and all were huge plays for down and distance. Is that about right? I think I watched 53min of game clock time. Adams had the huge game, but Graham had to a closer 2nd than fans would think.

He carried a 3.17ERA with Grandal as catcher and only a .54ERA with Pina as catcher. Love to see how well he does this year without Grandal catching him.

This could end quite horribly. The Brewers were also accused of sign stealing at Miller Park. https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/11/14/20963825/milwaukee-brewers-mlb-sign-stealing-controversy-houston-astros And yet in their splits the last 3 seasons. A runner on 2b they have a worse BA then generally with men on overall. And it is a lot worse with runners on 2nd and 3rd. Meanwhile looking statistically, Houston really bumps their BA with men on when on 2nd and 3rd and 0out and modestly with on 2nd with 0out. Bases Loaded. Maybe they thought it'd be less noticeable at that timeframe vs always with 2outs being so clutch? We're talking .333 2/3. .321 on 2b last season 0 out. but just .283/.279 overall so a large decrease to get there with 1 or 2outs. 2018 2/3 0out was .417 but 2b was only .229 but base loaded .474! Milw did have a nice split last season in the 2/3rd no out and on 2nd no out .278 and .304 but bases loaded a paltry .054 with 0 out 2018: 2nd/3rd no out was .143 and 2nd no out .264 Bases loaded .286 So basically nothing shows up in 2018 where they were getting an advantage with a runner on 2nd or 3b. I mean should you look back in non postseason years? 2011? Back to then as when Grienke played with the team? Only number that stands out is a .435 BA with bases loaded and 0out...10hits that season no Grand Slams in the scenario. So I think the Brewers could fight off allegations with the proof of how poorly they did with a runner on 2b to steal signs. In vast comparison to the lines Houston put up.

So now are the replacements hired suspended for 1year w/o pay? Can MLB just keep the now vacant positions vacant? Hold Houston responsible to not hire and use whom they have now to replace these two? As in the bench coach is now coach. Whatever the hierarchy is below GM is now GM for 1 year? Because if Houston just gets to hire replacement GM and Coach then what penalty is this team really incurring? 5mil and 4 draft picks?

This was an unforced error on the part of Stearns. Just offer Hader a four-year, $34 million deal - $4 million bonus, $7.5 million a year for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, with a mutual option for the 2024 and 2025 seasons of $10 million per year and a $6 million buyout. $40 million guaranteed. He just requested 6.4mil his first Arb. No way does he take a 1.1mil bump in 2020 for what will likely be a negative 2mil or more bump in 2021 and certainly beyond. Also gotta consider Hader and his group have to know the Brewers would trade him(as suggested) with becoming too expensive. That trade could be the Yankees(as suggested) who has the history of paying their RPs far more than 10mil in a season. If Im him, Im waiting for that LA or NY trade to and wait for a 5 to 7 year contract extension worth at or more than 100mil to avoid Arb 2 or 3 or the final year. Kenley Jennsen is making 20mil this year. Hader says Ill take my 6.4mil this year and make more next season. He's young superbly Elite for the position he's at. And a Super 2. Big time money is coming his way...all because of 1day. Had he not qualified for Super 2, and this was a pre-Arb year then your suggestion probably works.

Dodgers when are they going to call? They signed Alex Wood( Jimmy Nelson too) soooo, Dustin May what's your role looking like heading in to 2020? Certainly a bit more cloudy than prior to these two signings. He's also got the Hader look with the hair, so maybe fans can squint and ignore the RH pitching motion and still think Hader was on the mound. That is something to ponder on. Walker Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda, Julio Urias, Alex Wood? Dustin May/Tony Gonsolin. Jimmy Nelson, and not far is Josiah Gray. Oh missed one, Ross Stripling. They have control on all those pitchers for 2 seasons(Kershaw) with Wood being a 1yr incentive contract. They can clearly part with a May and replace with a stud RP in Hader. Considering they have depth in the minors to fill a rotation this year and beyond. You get in to the Dodgers payroll and in starting 2022, their largest commitment is 13mil to AJ Pollock. Yep one contract at 13mil for the LA Dodgers 2 years from now. Brewers actually have more committed than LA currently in 2022. So fitting Hader's Super 2 Arb contract will not be a thing year 3 or 4 to them. Obviously I want more, just stating are the Dodgers going to continue running prospects moving forward? or Use a few for a proven team controlled MLB player? Or are they going to run a payroll below 100mil come 2022 with a team built on prospects? When's the last time they won the WS? Be a shame to not win one with Kershaw all those years?

Hey the site is working. Pettine really had a slow time noticing for 3 drives in a row rushing 4 and having somebody better than Martinez spy Wilson. Was as easy as step back and roll out right gain 7+yards. Rinse repeat. Finally After the TD, blitzes Alexander who immediately sacks Wilson on 2pt try. Next Seattle drive same 4man rush not getting there. Finally a 6man rush and sack to seal that potential GW drive. Offensively. 1st drive of 2nd half was a thing of beauty. Then? I dunno. Defense was clearly gassing, I think some has to go on Rodgers. Didnt quick throw an open WR. Almost gave it up again to Seattle. On to the next round. Hopefully Bulaga returning shores up some of the OLines issues today.

Or stick with more running game with these Oline gaffes.

So this is postseason right? OL playing like it's preseason with whom is responsible for whom. Communication? What a terrible showing by this group.

They don't have to have a signal to see who's ball it was on the review. They just have to have a clear recovery. Sorry to be right. Predictable

What's worse is they never signaled who's ball it was. So they wont overturn this.

1st prediction -Check

Outscored 51-7. Wow. This is why they are a SB favorite heading in to the season. Lucked out hard to not have to play vs Mahomes. This is the kind of QB Rodgers was where you couldn't feel secure with any lead. It'll be interesting to see how well Henry runs vs the Chiefs and maybe play keep away from Mahomes. As was the strategy vs Rodgers.

What a great TE route by Fells? Is it? I really miss that sort of quick TE curl. Seems Graham is always in a corner jump ball route. Even on 3rd and shorts where is that TE play? Great start by Houston. That puntblock has to be one of the cleanest block Ive seen in a dozen or more years. Not even a brush of jersey on the punter following through.