brewcrewdue80
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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80
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Lester to Cubs - 6 years / $155 million
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
To say he is a 3WAR pitcher because of his durability/IP and him entering his 30s, is absolutely ignoring the fact he post above 4.5BWAR last season. Tells me his 4.9BWAR ability 6 of the last 7 seasons is very attainable. Please go on telling me how you determine he's not an ace? He's top 30 in the stats you posted with a down year. There are 30 teams in all of baseball. Tells me he's at the edge of Ace status. And again that's including a bad year vs. 3 straight good years likely by the other 29 included in your stat picking. You give him his numbers for the last 2 seasons and he's probably top 20 maybe even top 15 due to IP. That's an Ace.... top tiered. How is saying he's better than Grienke preposterous? He's posted more 4+BWAR seasons than Grienke has in the last 7seasons. Take Greinke's Cy Young year away and Lester has been better at a higher consistency. Lester's BWAR since 2008: 6.1, 6.3, 5.2, 4.4, 0.7, 3.0, 4.6 Greinke's since 2008: 5.4(less), 10.4(a lot more), 3.4(less), 1.5(less), 3.6(more), 3.9(more) 4.3(less) You remove Greinke's Cy Young year, and Lester has been worth almost 2 more WAR than Greinke. With terrible year. It's not a big amount on avg just .33WAR on avg for 6seasons. The point is, Greinke received a 6season contract worth 147mil being the hott commodity at the time for SPs. Lester with just as much a track record(if not better as shown) received a slightly bigger contract, only more is paid up front so Lester will be paid less than Greinke ever year after the first. Which in this argument reflects comparably considering you're buying in to an equal pitcher. -
Lester to Cubs - 6 years / $155 million
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It manipulates the reader's perception to comparing Lester to Drew Smyly. Going back 3 years. How about Lester being a SP for all 3 years and using Smyly's stats when as a RP in 2014 skewing in his favor: 3 RP appearances 7ip 3hits 0ERs 2013 all appearances were RP none as a Starter 2012 5 RP appearances 4 1/3ip 4hits 4ERs Your including his 2012 and his one awful year for his career skew the perception as you want to put it. Lester has a 32.6BWAR in 9seasons as a Pitcher. Only 1 as a Fulltime SP has he been below 3WAR and it's that 2012 year you're including. Let's throw away his 2012 BWAR and in the 6 seasons as a 30+SP he's averaged being worth 4.91BWAR as a SP. The Brewers Best WAR SP was Peralta at 2.7 in 2014 while having a 4.11Fip. In 2013 Lohse was the only SP to crack 2BWAR with 3.3-Lester was at 3.0 In 2012 Yovani lead the team at 2.9BWAR(Grienke in 21Starts-2.2) 2011 Shaun Marcum lead the team at 3.0BWAR 2010 Yovani Gallardo lead the team miserably at 1.7BWAR 2009 Yovani Gallardo lead the team at 2.7BWAR 2008 CC Sabathia in 17Starts accumulated 4.9BWAR and Sheets accumulated 4.2BWAR. Understand that Lester pitching in the AL East 6 of 7seasons avg'd 4.91BWAR. The Brewers had Sheets and Sabathia as the only SPs that even remotely touch what Lester's avg season is. He's been worth pretty much 2 more BWAR per season of Milw's best Starter yearly. He may not be an Ace like Kershaw but he's been worth more than Grienke consistently on avg. Or at least equal value. And Lester has done it all in the AL. He's moving to the NL now, gets to face the easy out that is the SP. That's so many free outs, how many times do we have to see a 5ERA type like Liriano in the AL move to the NL and pitch to 3.4ERA and ignore that fact with Pitchers like Lester? Even Lohse has benefited from moving from the AL to the NL. What's the blunder by the Big Market Cubs? Acquiring a 5WAR type SP for big amounts of cash? Because the end of his contract he may turn out poorly? If the Cubs want to compete for a World Series, who gives them a better chance? Lohse/Gallardo/Garza or having Lester to front the rotation? Answer is simply Lester. Today. Likely Tomorrow and likely over all 6years from now vs. those 3. That one outlier year of 2012 occurs does that make you correct if in 2015 or 2016 Lester helps lead the Cubs to Division titles/ Playoff Wins / or a World Series appearance+victory? Because in 2018-2020 he pitches to a 2WAR or less SP making loads of cash? I believe the Cubs would have gotten what they desired from him in 2015/2016 and 2017 to care less about 2018-2020 results. The 6/155 was what it took to get Lester. I know I read a team had a 6/135mil offer out there(Yankees was it?) 20mil over 6years in a big market like Chicago, is it a blunder to outbid and acquire his ability for the potential end means? I guess it is when you compare him to Drew Smyly who'd been just as often used as a RP as a SP in the last 3 seasons. None of them over 200ip like Lester has given in all 3. -
If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble
brewcrewdue80 replied to rickh150's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
MNBrew. Let's recap the Winter meetings in the NL Central: The Cubs addressed one of typically every team's need by signing a Front Line FA in Jon Lester for 6years. They also addressed their Catcher situation, getting a better Defensive C in Montero with just as much upside as Castillo offensively. They signed Jason Hammel to a 2year deal who gave the Cubs 17starts in 2014 of 2.98ERA/3.19Fip pitching and helped acquire Russell/McKinney and Straily in trade last July, three players that help their future look brighter than previously. The Pirates resigned Francisco Liriano, he of under 3.4ERA the last 2 seasons for them addressing a need they had. They also acquired a steady LH RP via Fip in Antonio Bastardo 3.33Fip career for a AA LH SP/RP who's ERA is above 4 in the Minors (4.84 last season) addressing a need. The Pirates were also tied to other trade rumors showing a willingness that an 88win 2014 team and 94win 2013 team stood to be improved upon to remain competitive. The Cardinals a 90 win team in 2014 and 97win team in 2013 have been tied to rumors of adding a Lester/Scherzer or Shields or top notch SP in trade when already possessing an Ace in Wainwright with strong #2s in Wacha and Lynn. Also signed a Power RH Platoon 1b with Adams+Bench bat in Reynolds. A team when looking at their bench last season had less than 5HRs as a high individually from that bench situation. They addressed a Need, and at least appear like they may add more to the team via FA or trade. The Reds. Understanding their situation in the tough NL Central and having multiple FAs to be after 2015/ shed Mat Latos and 8.4mil projected salary and Alfredo Simon with his 5.1mil projected salary. Acquiring Anthony Descalfini a young cost controlled SP/RP for the next 6years that would appear to be potentially a backend solid Rotation piece and Chad Wallach(son of Tim) a Catcher who would appear much like the Brewers own Clint Coulter in potential for Latos. And Eugenio Suarez a 22yr old Utility Inf who can play SS or 2b with .700OPS bat profile and Jonathon Crawford a real prize 1st rd 2013 selection SP who's thus far started 31games with 2.273ERA across 142innings for Simon. Descalfini and Crawford now rank 5th/6th on MLB's prospect ranking for the Reds. Suarez I'm guessing no longer qualifies as a Prospect. Wallach doesn't crack the top 20 for whatever reason. Theres a Red website with a statement quote from I think a beat writer for the team that sums up what we've been preaching avoiding: http://blogredmachine.com/2014/12/13/analyzing-cincinnati-reds-decision-trade-mat-latos-anthony-desclafani-chad-wallach/ Sum it up, the Reds dealt 2 iffy final year players in Latos/Simon who are in their final year of contract shedding 13+mil in money and acquiring young controllable talent in their system. This vs. letting these two FAs potentially flounder and walk away at the end of the season garnishing nothing in return. Again, Lohse/Gallardo/Parra/Aram Potentially Lind and Broxton if you don't pick up their 2016 options, all stand to walk after 2015 with nothing to show for it. While taking up 59mil of the team's payroll for 2015. Could Milw have used a Eugenio Suarez and Jonathon Crawford for a Kyle Lohse or Yovani Gallardo? The team would have found a Utility and picked up a 1st rd Pitching prospect while shedding over 10mil in payroll that maybe now goes towards a Bullpen piece or OF Utility. Not one thing was mentioned during the winter meetings of any Brewer Player being made available in trade. Parra was suggested maybe being available before the meetings began, and the Lohse/Gallardo suggestion wasn't made by Melvin but a writer who felt like they could be trade bait due to 1year remaining on their contracts. Meanwhile, teams needing SP to fill rosters by my count 12 spots for SPs were addressed. Reducing the field of having a need for a Lohse/Gallardo. I can see one view saying well if the field is whittled down to where when making Lohse/Gallardo available and being the best out there for the last 2 or 3 teams searching late Spring Training for a SP can add to their value....At the same time, lets say we're talking to the likes of Baltimore, Philly, or say the Rockies who don't have strong Minor systems after the top 2 or 3 who are made unavailable in any trade. You're left acquiring players that currently grade as being avg ML-rs if best case scenario occurs. The team missed its opportunity to strike. I mean Andrew Heaney, Descalfini, Crawford, Wieland, Eflin, Jefferson Mejia, Allen Webster are some of upside Pitching prospects that were acquired via Trade. Many near ML ready. The team wouldn't look so bad going in to 2016 with SP having that extra SP to step in. And again now there's 10mil to go use for a Bullpen/Utility guy for 2015 or save for now and being capable to put to use if truly going all-in come July and acquiring someone via trade that's expensive. That's part of the issue is I see the team is set due to payroll. And if it comes down to July trade deadline, and you say hey this guy is available in trade and the Brewers could really use that guy down the stretch so long as they are willing to take on his 7+mil owed the rest of the season...oh wait. They're maxxed currently? Can't take on that payroll? Nice work, you handcuffed yourself when your ideal situation is occuring(Brewers winning at or near division lead) and can't do anything to make that extra push. After last season's Broxton trade if Milw is not leading the division do you see them making a Broxton like trade when behind in the standings if it meant addressing a problem for the team?(SS Segura is bad, Platoon mate Lind/Gennett is bad, ARam,Braun or Gomez is out to injury, Need for a true Closer?) Doubtful due to where the payroll stands today. -
If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble
brewcrewdue80 replied to rickh150's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
So, Winter Meetings come and gone. It seems Milw was Mute for the entire duration of it. Classy run organization right there. Don't partake, sit back and be the audience. If that really was the plan, why even bother going to the meetings..oh yeah it was in San Diego, I'd love that free trip there too! Just silly and stupid to not be tied to one rumor on a trade or a player. One. None. Nothing about Parra being available and any teams showing interest. Nothing on Lohse or Gallardo (hello Boston? or even Texas?) I have the distinct feeling Melvin is in his final year and with the Lind move, is coasting his way to retirement. The handwriting is all on the wall, the team will be torn apart after this season. Melvin gone. Roenicke gone. All the expired contracts gone. MA will hire a new GM and start the team fresh, trading either Gomez or Braun or both next year. I mean honestly, if I were playing for this team and its epic collapse last season, and these are the moves done to correct it? I'm going to have a hard time believing this team can get over the hump from last years collapse and succeed this year. And it's going to hit me smack in the face by May 10th. 25 of the team's first 32games are vs Division foes. Will have faced each team in division 2 series. It's going to show up pretty quickly whether the Pirates/Cardinals/new Cubs are who we think they are(contenders) and if Milw misplayed their hand believing this squad of virtually the same everyday starters was going to put up a fight vs them. What's even more crazy is that after 25/32 by May 10th. You look to the Trade Deadline and between the 11th of May to July 31st a span of 72 games if counted correctly, They play 14 more games in division 14/72. Then finish the season with 37/58games vs division foes! It's crap. Because two things happen. If Milw is within a 2games of .500 or better, I see them going all-in and making trades to attempt to win down the stretch with the excuse that with so many division games remaining they had to try something and see if they could make up ground. If they are out of it like in 2013 early, they'll be selling in early July til the deadline. And I can call 2014 recurring in 2015 for Milw. with all the division games a 22-10 start with a nice 5game cushion on the division can happen. Due to Braun+ARam being healthy early and contributing a lot offensively. Its a start good enough to carry them to the trade deadline where they're looking at a 1game lead or behind in the division and make a move trading for the stretch. Only with so many division games to finish the season, and Braun/ARam's healthy bats deteriorating among others, the avg pitching staff doesn't carry them w/o the offense and the team flounders to a below .500 finish having wasted prospects,plus now heading to 2015 losing all the expiring contracted players with nothing to show for it. Doom. Worst team in the division come 2016 and it won't even be close if that scenario plays out. -
Lester to Cubs - 6 years / $155 million
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
That really is great Stat manipulating. Throw in Lester's 2012 where he pitched to 4.82ERA on 4.11 FIP. Really makes the stats look favorable to your point. Not the 65 starts of the last 2 seasons at guessing halfway 3.2Fip or the real 3.09ERA in 433IP. He's removed from the AL East in to the NL. Something Kershaw has had the pleasure of posting numbers in. He'll still be in a launching pad Ballpark but now instead of facing DHs he gets to face Pitchers. You're also basing your numbers to Smyly in 3years who hasn't even achieved the 433IP Lester posted in the last two. Smyly on the stat-front seems very favorable to Lester's only the man is heading in to first year of Super 2 Status. If Smyly were a FA after posting Lester's 2014, I'd imagine he'd be in for even More Money than Lester because of his age. So again saying the Cubs paid 155mil for what amounts to Drew Smyly is ignoring the contract situation between the two. If Smyly continues pitching to those numbers being a Super 2, He's probably staring at 16mil his final year in Arb(assuming he reaches 30 starts a season) The other part of this is the Cubs gave Lester a Signing bonus 20mil with 10mil paid out the other 5years. So over the last 5years of his contract he's barely earning 22mil per. Is it crazy? I dunno, if David Price is estimated to earn 18.9mil for his final year in Arb, how bad is Lester's FA contract? Gotta remember he was the Hott commodity in FA SP market too. Sorry about the rant, just seen the 2012-2014, and thought to myself, wasn't Lester's 2012 awful though? And sure enough it was. 2013/14 wasn't though. -
Of course that Pythagorean W-L was below their actual record. Elite Bullpen will finish off leads of 1 or 2 runs practically everytime. What was the Brewers Pythagorean W-L when they were 20-7 last season? Wasn't it like 14-13? The Bullpen out of the Gates for Milw I recall was on some kind of record pace
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If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble
brewcrewdue80 replied to rickh150's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have moved Gordon, Haren, Kemp, and Heaney to acquire Kendrick, SPs Joe Ross/Zach Eflin, Barnes a prospect C, Hernandez a Utility INF, and Hatcher a BP piece within 24hours. That team shed salary improved its current team overall, and added young team controlled players at the same time. That's whats frustrating. Reilly said it: We all want improvements, but it costs resources to make improvements. The club is probably pushing around $105-110 million roster. That's as high as it's ever been. Unless the team is willing to go higher, we really can't do a lot. That mostly means we're trolling the waiver and free agent bargain bins. I wish we had money to do more, but the reality is we don't (again, unless ownership is willing to increase payroll). We could free up money by dealing some guys - Gallardo or Lohse is a common idea. Other options include dealing Parra or Broxton. I think I mentioned this too some days back. But if we're set because the money is maxxed out, then the team should be smart enough to shed a final year on contract player or two to open some payroll while also attaining a young prospect or 3 for the now or soon to be future. The club hasn't learned from Fielder, Hart, Weeks and we are going to stare at Lohse, Gallardo, Parra, Broxton and down the road Gomez if they continue to stand pat and hold on to these guys for their entire contract. Ugh frustrating! -
And there it is. All that for Dee Gordon minus Haren. Meanwhile, Heaney just netted a better 2b in Howie Kendrick all by himself. Dodgers just slapped Miami in the face twice in the same night. For those on the 1yr left for Kendrick to 3yrs of Gordon debate, lets see LA offer Kendrick the QO after this season because 15mil is nothing to them. So they either have Kendrick with 2years or 1yr+Comp pick
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What about trading Davis to the Royals for one of their three late inning relievers, perhaps Holland or Davis? This could be a win-win situation for DM and MA since they are filling a need without creating a new one. Just a thought. Khris Davis for one-season-wonder RP Wade Davis would be the worst trade of Melvin's career. No Wade Davis had a solid Season in 2012 as a RP for Tampa. He's been a big success as a RP not as a SP. Adding his 10ip 3hit 1ER 4BBs 7ks as a RP in 2013 You're looking at Davis RP numbers totaling in past 3 years: 152.1ip 89hits 28ER 56BBs 203Ks 1.65ERA .97Whip Not condoning trading Davis away for a RP with that success at 7mil+18mil in options the next 2 if picked up. I would wait on Davis this year with his Bat. I seen him as inpatient early last season, not taking any pitches and swinging at pitches well outta the zone, only to see more patience as the season wore on. He had 1BB in his first 33games last season Then when he took a few walks broke out quite a bit a week later and he sporadically spread out his BBs from there on out. I'm looking to see him reach near that 10%BB rate he carried in the Minors with growth this season and how that plays out with his bat. He'll be forcing more strikes to be thrown so long as he's not swinging at junk, and I'd believe increase his batting numbers some more. If he's not holding up his end defensively, at least then in 2015offseason you can look to trade his bat away to a DH needing team. And if his defense improves you keep him because he'll be a 3+WAR OF.
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Jimmy Rollins traded to the Dodgers
brewcrewdue80 replied to torts's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
My word! I'm reading it's Gordon+Haren(who's supposedly retiring if not to another LA team) for Andrew Heaney, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Hatcher, and Austin Barnes. Hernandez had a higher OPS in his short stint than Dee Gordon. Hatcher pitched an effective BP job last season, Heaney was the Marlins #1 prospect+1st rd pick in 2012. Barnes has an over .800OPS with his bat in the Minors. But doesnt appear to have settled in to a position defensively. All that for Dee Gordon? Miami is helping the Dodgers remove Haren's contract expense. Collusion somehow? This trade makes zero sense from Miami's perspective. The fans should ask for Miami's GM Head! Pathetic move I'm so upset at this. This is a worse move than Brett Lawrie for Shaun Marcum. I'm sure Heaney could have gotten better in trade alone than Gordon w/o throwing in 3 more players? -
Lester to Cubs - 6 years / $155 million
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Bryant has exceeded a 1.0 in OPS advancing every level in 2years. Patterson-Never did that before making the Bigs at any level Milledge-Never did that before making the Bigs at any level Burroughs-Did acheive a 1+OPS in 6games of A+ball at the age of 18 But otherwise when he spent 100games at levels he didn't do that Young-Never achieved that before making that Bigs at any level Wood-Did have a year in A+ ball at age 20 where he OPS'd over 1. 2005. 51doubles-43HRs never achieved anything close to that again so one can easily wonder if he was PED'd Mike Olt it came to light an eye issue. There are reasons to think the Cubs super prospects all wont pan out(Baez being the first example) But Kris Bryant. All he did in identical PAs spent in AA and AAA last season was was hit 22+21HRs Walk 43times in both. Ground in to Double Plays a total of 4times! He's a College Aged Prospect, not an 18yr old-20yr old who performed superbly in a year and projections outgrew reality like the names mentioned. I highly doubt he's going to move up to the Bigs and have a hard time having success. Especially getting to play at Wrigley, I fully believe his first 160games played he'll amass 35HRs and OPS over .900. Which is a 10% drop from his minor stats. Oh and Dmitri Young Had a fairly good career with his Bat posting a 114OPS+ over his career. I'm going to guess you meant Delmon Young. Who again, another prospect who never posted above 1 OPS at any level before making the Bigs. Bryant has already passed Young in the HR department at both the AA and AAA level doing so in 68/70games to Young's 91+151games. Again Youngs best seasons like Wood's happened in 2005, so was the ball juiced for those 19yr olds? What was going around? -
Lester to Cubs - 6 years / $155 million
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The reason one assumes the Cubs go from 73wins to 90 is addition of Lester, Soler, Bryant, Montero. The Brewers improvements in that regard is Lind cancelling out Montero's improvement. Bryant's 3b skills alone is like adding Tulowitzki for Segura of 2014. I'm sorry I just believe Bryant is about to become a top 10 hitter in all of Baseball when given the chance better than Braun returning to form. Rizzo gets to bat ahead or behind that? A non-offensive OF will have Soler/Almora/Alcantara roaming it soon. In an OPS mind it's like taking a Cubs team OPS of .700 and it moving to .825 and meanwhile Milw was at .775 last year and will be .780 in 2015. Thus the panic. Plus Lester>than any of Milw's top pitching. Where does Milw begin to beat out the Cubs if they're behind the Batters and already 1/5th behind in SPs? -
If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble
brewcrewdue80 replied to rickh150's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Woke up to this: How quiet has this Winter Meetings been for the Brewers? Haudricourt reports that as of earlier tonight, the Crew had yet to personally meet with any agents or with representatives from another team. And the Cubs inked Lester as predicted making them much stronger heading in to 2015 season. This team is in trouble as one can just say there's nothing else going to be done and what we have is what we have. -
Brandon Moss to Cleveland for minor leaguer
brewcrewdue80 replied to jerichoholicninja's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I am quite surprised by the lack of return for Moss. As to who is Milw's equivalent to Wendle? I'd probably venture either Michael Reed or Taylor Williams based on age/prospect ranks and being two guys who've shown positive results and still possess growth upside. Helps also they are top 3 rounds picks as Wendle was a 6th rd selection. No they don't play 2b but Milw is lacking in 2b prospects not named Arcia. Just really surprised a team like Miami or Pitts who have 1b needs didn't offer more than Wendle. Even Milw but then again they jumped the gun and acquired Lind which in roster construction makes a Moss acquisition a poor idea w/o the intent on shipping Lind out. -
David Robertson to White Sox - 4 years / $46 Million
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Is this really surprising? 4/46mil for what appears to be an elite Closer? I believe Rafael Soriano turned in an impressive Save season(year Rivera injured himself) in to a QO 3/33 contract. So 11mil per. This is 4 years at 11.5per. Robertson posted better numbers and is younger. I highly doubt this is going to turn in to a bad deal for the Sox. It costs Chisox a 2nd rd pick. Gotta figure 2015 with the moves already made they weren't going to finish bottom 10 in Baseball. Theyve secured the Closer spot now for 4 years while they climb up the ladder to Division title/Playoff Appearances. They are close to becoming Pitcher dominant in Sale/Quintana and Rodon already. Samardzija will either be extended or net a QO certainly. And they have what may be the Albert Pujols of this decade batter in Jose Abreu. It doesn't take much surrounding one like that to produce runs for a Pitcher heavy team. There aren't many FA signings that I'd agree with the money and years, but this is one of them. Robertson is a strong security blanket for Closer. Especially moving to the AL Central. -
What would we have to give up to get Zimmerman and Ian Desmond away from Washington? Gallardo or Lohse/Segura/??/?? I'm guessing that would take Gallardo AND Lohse AND Segura AND another. lol Not to mention 20mil to pay for Gallardo_Lohse in that Fleecing of a deal.
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I read that, but it doesn't make mention of Lohse or Gallardo. What it does mention is 3 pitchers the Reds possess...Which is just great. The one division team that seems headed for more troubling times than Milw would acquire young talent which potentially surpasses Milw's young talent and then brings them to challenge the likes of Chc/Pitts. Meanwhile in Milw....FAs to be after 2015 will walk and the team has nothing to show from them...if they don't win the Championship this year.
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Brandon Kintzler signs one-year deal ($1.075MM)
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Prospects. Pena/Hellweg/Jungmann/Blazik/Goforth just to start. I'm of the belief that Kinztler has 0 options to be sent down to the minors. He's stuck on the team's 25man with guaranteed 1mil cash that I'd have rather used sending a couple of 500k minor league guys on the 40man giving them the chance to show if they can do something good. You can bounce them up and down as needed. Maybe you need a utility player or you need an extra bullpen guy. Gives the team more flexibility -
What is with this mad obsession with Will Middlebrooks? His last 2 seasons were awful! You realize getting him this season would be his last before going to Arb? If he stinks it up he's going to be non-tendered and both he and ARam will be gone after 2015. The guy hasn't even been AAAA when back in the minors the last 2 seasons. He doesn't have a career OPS over .800 in the minors. You know who does? Jason Rogers. So I don't get the Middlebrooks desire anymore. You know who'd be a nice trade piece for Will Middlebrooks? Brandon Kinztler that's about the kind of value I see between the two. As to Delmonico, I think the guy will flame out. At least he's going to be such a long term prospect, that maybe when he turns 26 or 27 and is finally ML ready...It'll be for some other team as Milw will be enjoying Lara or Gatewood at 3b before then. Btw, Texas also has 2 MIF in Roughned Odor and Luis Sardinas former top 100 prospects to find places for. Sardinas is a Switch hitter who played 2b/SS/and 3b last season. He doesn't look like much with the bat but I'll assume he's a positive defensively to have reached the Majors at 21 with an under .700OPS as a minor Leaguer. Odor. Now theres someone to get excited about. I recall him having strong power potential 20HRs+ for a 2b...It's just sadly he bats LH which doesn't provide any platoon mate with Scooter. And Odor isn't exactly possessing SS ability(played 15games there when 18) He'd maybe be more a get in a 3team deal sending Gennett away as part of it.
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Brandon Kintzler signs one-year deal ($1.075MM)
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Brew4u, I'm against it, because he's taking up a roster space heading for age 31 and the signs are there he was just a 1year wonder. He began his career age 26 had 30 appearances in 3 seasons, then in 2013 had a good year his first full season pitching with 71 appearances. And last season regressed. He's not a long term fixture to be used in the Bullpen. I see it as honestly being a one year wonder and year two he's been getting figured out(plus his loss in velocity) Slash lines against him last year were: .284/.332/.450/.781! And his Splits RH vs LH He gave up a line of .304/.345/.514/.859 vs RH Batters! The ones he should be more dominant against. That included all 8HRs he allowed. His LH splits .250/.310/.338/.648 weren't bad. So what'll it be next season? LH batters mash against him unlike last season? Or will he fix his RHB splits which will improve on his numbers? Maybe he just stays the same vs RHB and gets worse vs LHB? Making him awful altogether? He's not dominant as a RP. It makes sense that he's giving up a number of inherited to score when he doesn't have a K rate above 5. Ball is always put in play. 6.8 to 4.8 k per 9. The 6.8 for a RP isn't good. the 4.8 is just down right awful. And he's a 9hit+ per 9. Theres just nothing that screams worth keeping. SO-BB ratio was worst on pitching staff when you remove Wang. Nothing wrong with having him on the team with options making around 500k. But signing him to 1mil taking up a roster spot his first year of Arb just doesn't make sense to me when he doesn't flash anything remotely positive as a sign to have a great turnaround. The Brewers should have taken what they got from him and moved on. -
Brandon Kintzler signs one-year deal ($1.075MM)
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I saw 11/37 inherited runners were allowed to score by Kinztler. Nearly 29.7% And By my count he left 17men on base he was responsible for. Only 2 of them wound up scoring. 11.8% There were 6 games he was responsible as a Pitcher for the loss. With 3 others I count that his performance helped in determing/becoming a loss. 9/64appearances. right...Well how about looking at appearances within 3 runs or closer? Drops 22 appearances and is now 9/42 games his impact was negative in meaningful games. That's just a quick scan of his game logs with game results....My numbers may be off a little on the previous paragraph but does enlighten somewhat my stance. I guess if Kinztler's inherited runner scored rate was applied to his LOB and allowed to score it would just result in 3.1 more ERs to his stats. Takes his ERA up to roughly 3.75. Kinztler allowed 5/21 the previous season. More was asked from him and he didn't improve, he got worse. -
Brandon Kintzler signs one-year deal ($1.075MM)
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Kintzler's numbers last season were aided by others getting out of his jams and meanwhile not helping the ones ahead of him get out of their jams. Everything about him was worse than previous. Ks/Hits/HRs/BBs he regressed. He shouldn't be taking up a Roster spot, said this during last season, and I'm sticking with that opinion. He's a guy who benefited from others last season and should have been carrying a 5ERA or worse in his stats. If he had the 5ERA next to his number for last season, would the supporters still want him? He should have been non-tendered. It's the fact that he's only costing 1.075mil is why he's being given a chance. It shouldn't last through 2015 and he should be waived the moment he continues pitching lousy. -
I saw this and thought of Texas. Can we make a trade with them? Could you take a Corey Kneble or Jake Thompson or even Keone Kola plus a Ryan Rua for Gallardo? Man, Rua has put up some strong numbers in the Minors is RH can play 3b and has played 2b....Hello Platoon for Scooter? While also finding the 3b to spell ARam when needed or replaced when injured? Guy has shown 20+HR power. Meanwhile a Kneble or Kola gives the time flame throwing Bullpen trained arm. Or in Jake Thompson what appears to be a high quality SP arm with upside who's 20. Rua has that Lucroy behind the numbers about him. Not ranked in top 100 prospect lists, not even top 10 via MLB for Texas, yet he appears like someone who'll bat .800OPS or higher when given the opportunity, proving doubters wrong. I'm looking at what I believe would be the Rangers 5 in rotation as being Darvish, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Martin Perez and Colby Lewis. Considering the Injury bug on that Starting Pitching, Gallardo's near perfect health record may be appealing especially to give up a backup 3b/Bullpen type prospects. Since Kneble played on Texas last season, I would figure the BP guy would be Keone Kola. But even better would be to nab Jake Thompson and Rua. Texas imo should be able to offer Gallardo a QO either keeping him for 2016 or getting that sandwhich 1st rd pick to replace these non-first rd prospects they're giving up to acquire him. I'd really like to see Milw deal with Texas if they are going to trade Lohse or Gallardo.
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If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble
brewcrewdue80 replied to rickh150's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Rick. Here's the thing about trading Gomez due to the supposed notion that Taylor is the team's #1 prospect who one would assume likely to supplant Gomez at CF eventually. I've seen the videos of Taylor's Hitting and stats continue to back it up. He's a singles hitter with speed today to leg out doubles. Barring a real change and stride in his batting I really doubt he's capable of hitting 10HRs in a season. You figure better ML pitching and his .727OPS in A advanced ball and career .752OPS in the minors is reduced to a .670OPS when facing them+better Defensive players. Just for comparison sake, Logan Schafer had similar to actually better stats than Taylor as he climbed up the minor League ladder. I'm going to predict Taylor is of that kind of prospect. Will do fine in the minors and turn in to a decent AAAA player but never excel to a point he's a certain everyday CF in MLB. So Milw must retain Gomez for at least this season so not to completely fold their lineup card with whomever mans CF during the season. Taylor is young, so maybe he can grow a little as a hitter in 2015 to foresee a better projection. The trades Milw can make start with the older SPs in Lohse/Gallardo and Garza. Maybe even with Fiers as a sell high. But the 3 Vets are whom should be moved. The issue is, we're approaching the Winter Meetings when trades happen in a fury, and Lester/Scherzer/Shields are still to be signed. Any team looking to acquire SP is in a wait and see mode til 1 or 2 of these guys are signed to set the market. I do agree in that I think the team is in trouble for this year as it stands. Gennett will have reduced numbers facing Leftys. Gomez/Lucroy it's hard to imagine improvement from those two. Standing pat or a lil regression in batting stats. ARam is aged and could be on his way out. Khris Davis I think the Slg will remain. BA/OB is what you can't project will improve or decline. Leaves Braun/Lind/Segura as positions to hope on improvement at the plate. Lind isn't going to exceed the Power production from last year's 1b situation, only improve on the BA/OB side. Segura isn't a Power hitter so another BA/OB improvement. Braun is the only one where you look at improved HR. His 2bs/3bs were on pace with previous years. So added Runs come in HRs/BA/OB improvement. The other issue is the team doesn't have a leadoff hitter. Gennett vs RHP I suppose. But #1/#2 in the batting order is a bit or an issue. The team's best #1/#2 option appears to me to be Braun/Gomez via Batting stats....But they both along with ARam/Segura were top 10 in 1st pitch swinging. Would rather have a guy who is more patient and that suddenly become Lucroy only. I think it's a certainty Lucroy won't bat 1st or 2nd because of being a Catcher. Davis/Segura both had under .300 OB pct. So I'm wondering if it goes Gennett/Lind vs RHP leading off followed with Gomez/Braun vs LHP? Do you just put Braun #2 in the lineup especially if he becomes Braun of old? Suddenly he's your #3 hitter again permanently. And of course the back end of the Bullpen is rather shaky. So everything could go right only to watch the team implode 20+games in the 8th and 9th innings/beyond. turning 90win team in to a 74win team. Didn't even touch the SP situation. Again no Aces and when identifying as such the team doesn't possess a #2 even when talking stuff/potential. Peralta is the closest with Garza being in that convo too. So that puts the team behind many Pitching matchups just to begin a game. And some of the NLs strongest Pitchers reside in the division. Will the team realize their potential and actually put Peralta as Opening Day Starter? Garza #2 with Lohse/Gallardo interchangeable as #3/4? What if the team made a move from Segura? sorta like today's Didi Gregarious move, trade Segura for a Bullpen Closer/Setup type like a Kelvin Herrera type? And then just jump Arcia in to the Starting SS opening day? In that idea, can you talk KC in to moving Segura to 2b and have a Segura/Escobar duo? (note while I'm not big on Taylor, I absolutely love Arcia's swing and it's ability to be special so I don't see his bat as a big drop off) If Milw wanted to be real about 2015, that's the move to consider. Arcia may even be a fit as a leadoff/#2 in the batting order with his lower K rate. I'd think it'd definitely be a Fan move to have a Closer to cheer for while also having a 20yr old rookie SS to get behind. -
Torii Hunter finishing his career in Minnesota
brewcrewdue80 replied to superfly's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I like the move for Minnesota. Think it's a classy move to bring him back and finish his career while keeping a seat warm for the future. I also like the Mollitor push for him. Probably some real respect among the two, and for him becoming a rookie coach, Hunter may show a little respect to be given attitude to rub off on these young guys. Hunter is just a solid player there's not much downside here in having him. You give the fans someone to cheer for on a team not likely to compete, but towards the end of the season will be the farewell to Hunter games come out and cheer for him.

