brewcrewdue80
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Random MLB News & Discussion 2015–16
brewcrewdue80 replied to jjgott's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Place your Bets! So ESPN posted the Atlantis Sports Book Over/Unders for teams. 19 teams predicted to finish .500 or higher. the Brewers one of the 11 not to be .500 at 80 wins. With the NL Central the toughest division. Winner StL at 87.5wins. Last in division Reds at 79. 8.5 games separating 5teams? http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/12321069/washington-nationals-los-angeles-dodgers-highest-projected-season-win-totals-according-atlantis-sports-book Some odd numbers. the Astros to win just 73.5 games? They won 70 last season. Twins to win 68.5 games after winning 70games last season? Aren't they going to be better? I think that divison may be the weakest in baseball if Victor Martinez isn't anywhere near his 2014 self. You know on the NL side I can't really complain with the projections. Atlanta, Philly, Colorado and Arizona are bound to be bad(with Arizona the most potential imo) It shows the Brewers had better put a Premium on H2H matchups within the Division, ie when the Cardinals Bean ARam after a hot start/ you retaliate this season. Again, we get to find out early on 25 of first 32 games played in division. 1/3 of Divison Games in first 1/5th of season. 29 of final 35 games in division so 54/76 division games played in a 67 game span. 18 of the others in between the 95 other games. Would be a good prediction to put Roenicke on the hott seat after the first month's of games. And of course obviously the final month's of games will either dictate him keeping his job, or the new manager keeping his job...Good month comparison of how the team does in the division. -
Cuban Prospects (Not Named Moncada)
brewcrewdue80 replied to Eye Black's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
This was one of the videos immediately present to click after viewing the practice ABs. Not sure about his athleticism and arm from 3b. can see several throw off line. Super thick build and slow moving, I'd venture Prince Fielder has more quickness then him. Didn't like his approach at the plate either. I'd pass. The 2b Olivera. Not a fan of the vid. He really looks like a man who has talent, but since its practice takes a 30% effort towards doing so and the other 70% barely goes through the motions. It's quite incredible he has 16 HR seasons in essentially 84games. One would be able to project 27-31HRs then. Guy also reminds me of Rickie Weeks w/o the hair. I'd probably give him the best of Weeks as his playing numbers...Just is 12mil per worth that while aging. Now the prize of these posts. Yadier Alvarez. Very good motion to the plate, doesn't look like he's putting in a lot of effort for the results. Can see the movement with the slider. Works low in the zone. It's a shame a team like the Dodgers will have tabs on this kid, as it just shows how money wins and small markets watch. The Dodgers will have more Aces in their rotation in 3years than I likely see in a Milwaukee Brewers uniform full season in my lifetime. Between Kershaw/Grienke/Urias/and this kid. -
The good news, we'll have an answer to this sweepstakes in less than 14days. My assumption is that the Yankees are paying him 30mil and it's the best offer out there currently. The 40mil comes from the bidding up if the Dodgers decide to pursue him and maybe that amount is either where the Dodgers give up or the Yankees give up that amount. I'm thinking any other team to get involved that can does so if it's 15-20mil signing cost. 3months to pay the big man after the signing(so the Yankees have already paid their initial tax overage by now) I still have 0 belief the Brewers are getting involved based on where they stand in team Payroll today. As I said earlier, I think the Workout was for the 2015 signing period if he made it that far, when the team starts out at $0 before the signing and to fight off with the Cubs in the deal. Since no Central team is involved, I see no reason the Brewers get involved for the money.... Keep in mind the 2015 signing period would occur in July, plenty of time to have knowledge if you're buyers or Sellers at the Deadline. If Milw were to sell off in July/ there is a ton of money to remove off the books/ I'd feel like paying 35mil in taxes could have been offset by the reduced team payroll for the rest of 2015 and the future obligations for 2016...No Lind, No Broxton maybe even no Gomez, selling off Lohse/ARAm/Parra. Do that in July and there's your 35 mil to pay over 3month in taxes. The 17mil no longer owed to Broxton/Lind plus 9mil to Gomez in 2016 is closing in on 35mil in the signing bonus. Thats how I feel Milw is connected and worked Moncada out. For that scenario. That scenario is not playing out on Moncada's end and he's going elsewhere.
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Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon
brewcrewdue80 replied to narwhalattack's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think reading that, the Brewers were looking to send Broxton for Papelbon and probably the salary dump prospect in return. Not giving up a top prospect. Either way you look at it, the Brewers are doing something terrible if they give up any talend better than Jorge Lopez in rankings. And even he may be too much. I'd only offer Reed or Wren for him to start the process. It's a Salary dump for the Phillies, never lose sight of that in talks. Just because Papelbon wants 2years-26mil guaranteed doesn't make him worthwhile to give up a decent prospect. Papelbon doesn't want to play here, enough said. So move on. IF he did want to play here, he'd have waived his no-trade clause w/o guaranteeing that 2nd year just fine. I really hope it leaks out that Papelbon's agent is the one who said that was his best move, only to see Papelbon get injured/not come close to reaching his Games Finished and getting that option activated. All, while playing for a 65win losing team he has to sit 6 months through. And ponder why he listened to his agent. Anyway, Like said previously, the Option isn't a guarantee on the Phils end, they owe him 13mil, and the whole point of moving him is to salary dump. Based on Trade Deadline paychecks, I'm guessing the Phils are seeking to save at least 40% of the contract which is 5.2mil. The most they must be considering sending is 8mil in my mind. 2years/18mil plus loss of prospect is too much for Milwaukee in my opinion. For a guy who's velocity is down every year the last 3years, does he continue that trend? At what point does losing velocity make him ineffective? It was one thing for Milw to acquire him with 5-8mil cost+salary dump prospect. It's another to have to give up a premium prospect and pay 13million more for another year that could be atrocious/waiver-wire type Pitcher. The guy literally could be out of baseball before the end of this year if his skills decline. We don't need to see another Gagne episode and do so while giving away a Prospect. -
Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon
brewcrewdue80 replied to narwhalattack's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'm basing this not happening on when the original rumor came out and the Brewers were pursuing him, it came with Papelbon on his 1yr+vesting option. Then Papelbon(or his agent) requested that the 2nd year be included if he were to remove his no trade policy to Milw and that squashed the deal. I'm sure the demand on the Phillies part is too high when they are being asked to pay so much of Papelbon's payroll for Milw to afford him for 2years. Philly is going to be so bad this season, I put it at 95% most likely Papelbon doesn't reach the Games Finished to vest his option. So Personally, the Brewers shouldn't and can't do it. Not until Hamels is traded. The moment that happens, the Phillies are removing a 5WAR type SP who's capable on his own to win the Phillies 10-14games which equals Games finished for Papelbon. When he disappears the Phillies move from a team that can win 67-71games to a team staring at 60wins and in full rebuild mode for the entire season. They'll be losing games to net a #1 draft pick and for all the Jordan Zimmermann rumors based here, the begin of a rebuild for them will start with a protected #1 pick and a 2nd rd cost draft choice to sign him. The players the Phils get in return from a Hamels trade, and Frankel/Nola/Quinn/Crawford and Eflin being either added to the ML roster or 1year closer to being added come 2016. Now, if I'm the Phillies I hold out for the best prospect and least amount of money to trade Papelbon. What's a team like the Dodgers or Yankees or Padres or even the Angels going to do if their Closer falls apart to injury before the end of July? And then their setup guy doesn't produce? The money wouldn't be a big issue at that point for them. Not to mention, if I'm correct about the Papelbon Games Finished pace, he won't be on pace to demand that vested year being added, and he can't demand that if that team isn't on his no trade clause. St Louis? Rosenthal goes down who do they turn to? Carlos Martinez is supposed to be the answer for Shelby Miller. Closers are super finicky, look at Chris Perez or KRod, guys that signed Minor League deals who were themselves as good or better than Papelbon at one point previously. There will be 10-14 Closers turned over one figures this season. Papelbon's ability can be one of those guys that fixes that problem. -
James Shields to Padres - 4 yrs / $75 million
brewcrewdue80 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Padres did the right thing here by signing Shields. When you're a weak offensive team in a Pitchers HomeBallpark. Signing a Cy Young type SP is worth it. Shields, Cashner, Ross, and even Kennedy make them a team to watch out for. They are also a team Milw needs to watch out for. They are better imo than the Pirates now. If the Padres manage to not get hurt with their top 4 SPs, they will win the 1st wild card if not their division. The Padres could see Myers breakout, Kemp keep performing, Upton be Upton, and then see Gyorko and Alonso reach expectations. Watchout. There is more top end talent on that roster than Milw possesses. Shields just cemented that. -
Jimmy Nelson - Ready for the Challenge?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Brewers do not have Wei-Chung Wang this season on the 25man roster. I'm going to not be concerned with Bullpen usage as there is a full roster spot available to use this season that wasn't last season. (They don't have Gorzo this year either for that matter) -
Absolutely 0 worry on my end. Its 6 weeks at most currently which leaves Lucroy a few days til Opening Day. No need to over-react.
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2015 Brewer Organizational Rankings
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
If Arcia hits 10 HRs or more through the 2015 minors he'll jump in to a top 40 conversation prospect. That really is his only knock power/hitting. The Defense is rated as being ML ready and capable. These other SS prospects ahead of him are either a little more defensive specialists(think Andrelton Simmons), Faster, and possess Power. I just think it's funny that Arcia is ranked lower in hit tool when he can go both ways, doesn't K a bunch like other SS prospects which means he'll put the ball in play giving himself the chance to bat .280+. Plus Arcia had over 40BBs last season, near 8%. Not like some guys ranked ahead of him(Mondesi & Anderson) Plus, I don't get ranking guys like Michael Conforto and Sean Newcombe ahead of Arcia two prospects picked in last years draft that weren't top 5 picks. Anyway, its nice to see a guy like Arcia get recognized in the top 100 list. He's an obvious future ML contributor unlike many others ranked near him or ahead of him will turn out. It's like a poster said -- the Team doesn't have that wow factor prospect, so they shouldn't be in the top half of ranking anyway. I think they do have a lot of ML future contributors to pull from, more so than likely a number of teams ahead of them in rankings its just they don't posses that guy who's going to be 5+WAR potential. A bunch of 1-3WAR guys but not 5+. Yet. Lara, Harrison, Gatewood, Arcia, and maybe even Coulter, could show enough to give some of that potential. The great news is the team is improving, and it's not just improving due to other team's graduating their talent. -
2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation
brewcrewdue80 replied to brewcrewdue80's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
If the list is correct suggests Milw has the 8th most money pool for the draft at 8.06mil. That competitive balance pick really boosts the team's draft pool and honestly what would believe a better than expected draft class. Due to more money to play with. This leads that 2 players in the to 33 talent ranking possible since other teams with less money may not draft as high upside. Looking forward to more refined draft boards as time nears. -
2014-2015 Brewers Off-Season Optimism Thread
brewcrewdue80 replied to torts's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Well, its nice they at least credit Milw with 80wins. Espn came out with their rankings and predicted Milw with just 78 wins. When it comes time to look at what or who will be worse this year from last, and who will be better this year from last, I find it hard to see a decline in numbers overall on a season. Lind upgrades the team's offense at 1b undoubtedly. And Pairing the Matchups Lucroy vs LHP you're staring at .800+ batting from that position vs the less than .680OPS of Overbay/Reynolds and seeing 70ks less if not more through the season so 10% more Balls put in play at minimum there. Peralta even though he had a 17win season, his Fip was over 4, he can certainly improve upon that. Garza was victim of 6th/7th innings either via himself, or via the Bullpen 5/12 Inherited runners scored. A little better luck on his end and he's just a 3ERA SP giving the team a true #2 to #1 in stats SP(he's being underrated) Nelson already said he got away what worked for him in AAA, and struggled in his stint in 2014 due to it. Growth in experience from him(his Fip was 3.78 with said struggles) easy to expect improvement and being everybit the equal in 32 starts of Yovani Gallardo. (Career Fip 3.71-3.94 in 2014) Gomez/Lucroy should be the same batters overall in numbers in 15. If they don't collapse that equals improvement but going with them having Big years in 2014 and suggesting that's them meeting expectations. While Weeks nice bat is gone for 2014, so too is his terrible 2b defense, something heralded about for Sardinas. His depth means no Jeff Bianchi PAs and competition to Segura who's batting line cannot possibly get worse than the .551OPS he posted. That right there means more offense from him. That leaves Braun/ARam to mull better/worse or equal. Braun had the worst offensive season he's had thus far in his career. Odds are he's either going to be that player or more than likely better. ARam. Huge numbers vs LHP, poor numbers vs RHP. Avg them out he's still a positive batter at his position. The fact there's 2 potential 3b not named Mark Reynolds to give him added days off may help him stay healthy and produce more. Depth, Reynolds/Overbay/Bianchi/Schafer/ even Weeks aren't going to have the roles for Milw they had in 2014. Parra provides as quality defense as Schafer with a much better batter profile, Reynold/Overbay as mentioned gone equals Lucroy at 1b and Maldonado giving him added Catcher days off of rest. Sardinas replaces Bianchi/Weeks more versatile with SS ability at a cost of power, better defensively. Hector Gomez/Jimenez/ and Jason Rogers also provide some upside maybe even power off the bench vs Ks with Reynolds/Overbay/Weeks...etc. Bullpen. Broxton is as consistent as KRod for a Closer. No Marco Estrada, no Wang, return of Thornburg/Henderson and the addition of Kneble. Wooten more experienced(his Fip was improved but like Garza, 6 inherited runners scored after he left) No Wang or Gorzellany to clog up a 25man roster spot. There's more reason to believe they'll be better as a group than last season. What does that really leave? Managing? Will the small changes made make a difference? Less baserunning errors? Less handcuffed situations in the Bullpen due to Wang/Gorzo's roster spot being open now vs tense situations? Theres just more to believe in this team for 2015 than prior to the beginning of 2014. And I believe I suggested them as 84game winners for 2014. I'm going 85game winners in 2015. The optimism on the Mets Staff is ignoring the potential Peralta/Fiers/Nelson can give Milw. It's an equal amount of boost that I think is being ignored. Peralta had just 2 appearances in the 8th in 2014. Can you believe that? He still managed 198IP. What if he reduces his Fip to 3.65 and does so while pitching 210Innings? He has 20game winning ability, the world hasn't seen the best he has to offer. -
Since the Shields Deal is over and to the Padres for those who didn't read this from Sherman: 1. Brewers Milwaukee is in an unenviable place. It is not good enough as constructed to outdo the Cardinals and Pirates (and possibly the Cubs as well) in the NL Central now, nor in the near future. So staying mainly status quo was not the right play. Either you add someone such as Shields and try to go for it, or you break down more than just trading Yovani Gallardo. As a brewerfan here, one thing learned is that Melvin&Co. seem to address their previous seasons troubles. And almost immediately he went and traded Estrada to acquire Lind to solve 1b vs RH essentially. 1 answer. Then he traded Yo acquired Sardinas a Switch Hitting Middle Infielder and I'd imagine that solves the RH platoon bat for Gennett with maybe having an answer to Segura. He acquired Parra last season down the stretch giving the team a Left Handed bat in the OF plus Defense+better than Schafer. Broxton was brought in to help the bullpen. Oh yeah Corey Kneble was acquired in the Gallardo trade. Sure the team doesn't have a #1 for a SP but it now appears well balanced, much more Depth than to begin 2014 and still have a solid Batting core most teams likely envy. I'm just confused by the difference Shields gives Milwaukee vs Nelson Does 2 more Wins in Starting Pitching make Milwaukee nobody's to Division Front-Runners? Shields is projected to be worth 3WAR....Nelson likely 0-1WAR for meeting expectations. So 2 wins is the difference. So this 81win team is now 83 right? And if the team is an 87win team and could move to 89 with the move?, Well then aren't they Contenders in the first place? If just doesn't make sense how one Aging SP not even projected to be anymore than a #2 type WAR is going to be the difference in being .500 and now Contenders? We should be contenders in the first place if so. So which is it?
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Commercialize Your Player
brewcrewdue80 replied to Web Jim Edmonds's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This thread was ruined in ideas the moment the first post occured. Cardinals Nation? Bleagh! :P I shouldn't even acknowledge I read it by posting this. I mean it's so unMilwaukee Brewers that commercial it should be deleted. Perspectives from the opposition is great, but this isn't one of them. Btw, due to language barriers in a Miami Bar during the Super Bowl, I stuck with a Bucket of Bud Light for $16 vs Coors Light for $24, and managed to drink just the 5 beers for the entire game. That Beer is awful, how does ST. Louis put up with it? How is Budweiser still in business if that's their Light Version? Choking that stuff down hoping it'd taste better as I went was brutal. That bar lost quite a bit of money from me (since they got rid of draft Coors Light that week) as I would have likely had 9-10 Pints of Coors vs the 5 bottles during that game. My once every 3 years taste reminder that Budweiser is a joke Beer product. -
Re Zimmermann: Doesn't he have a TJ surgery already? Yep 2009/2010 seasons out for. So wouldn't this year be a Breakdown worry year for him? He's good, but I don't think he's 6 or 7yr investment good. He's a #2 in my eyes and has performed as such, but is approaching 30. I just fear he's a guy who can fall hard when it happens. If he maintains his velocity, fine. But if he begins losing 2-3MPH on that FB with Age, and not being a huge K guy, I think he's a 3.65-3.7ERA Pitcher. Good. But 20mil+ good? Not for Milw's market. We'll have to wait and see, the Brewers' have so much questions with their lineup card for 2016, does the Zimmermann addition for 2016-2021 make it worth doing? He may only be useful for 2016 and in 2017 Milw is heading downward in talent. Shields. It sounds like the Padres will sign him at this moment, and an answer is coming very soon. I've also read some Cubs connection(something I chimed they should do to be contenders in 2015 long time ago with Lester) but that could just be due to Maddon being their manager now and last second conjecture to spark interest. It would be great with the Padres doing it as Brew mentioned Brewers move up another spot in draft order
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2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation
brewcrewdue80 replied to brewcrewdue80's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Nice. It's amazing they can keep track of such things on BRef, I don't know how to go through all that site. Of that list The 4 SP prospects rank top 4 overall for the Dbacks. #15 Bradley, Shipley #39, Blair #81, and Toussaint #98 overall for 2015. Let the Bickford pick rumor begin! lol. But boy, that has to really make a fan happy seeing that. Brewers in good Drafting hands. -
2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation
brewcrewdue80 replied to brewcrewdue80's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Definitely a strong chance to see Kyle Cody at 16. MLB has him 18th at the moment. And reading that #40 selection, Demi Orimoloye is ranked #33. Size with both of these two picks. Could see it happen with Demi to Milw too. Though, with reading Demi as toolsy, I wouldn't be surprised he's picked far earlier in the draft to sign for underslot and see money saved used on the next pick(like Medeiros) As for Cody, that would make for a story. A former WI HS young man signing for Milwaukee to play in WI. He reads fairly great on MLB, he must have taken big steps since the last draft as reading on him and video he apparently had tightness in his forearm and moved to a Bullpen role before returning to SP. At that time he had a FB and no hitting the strikezone secondary pitch. Jim Callis had a video ranking the top 10 pitchers in the Cape Cod back in Sept, listing that Cody and another Cody, Cody Ponce had the kind of stuff that made them more reckonized to move up the pitching ladder. The thing is #2 man on that list was Phil Bickford who, seems to be falling from his former #10 pick perch could be there for Milw @#16. The brief video seen on both Cody's and Bickford, right now I'd prefer Bickford. Ponce btw, the boy has a violent release action. Looks almost like he should throw the ball twice as hard with it. I wonder if that motion creates a tougher read as a batter to hit off of? Picking up where the ball is being released? Could that be a plus? Or would he be more fearful of injury? And/or concerns of a consistent ability to maintain control? This will be the first draft with the new Scouting Director Montgomery. Will he go risky? Safe? Best Player Available? I'm wondering if he'll go safe in his first pick, very signable so he doesn't miss out on his first pick. Then maybe get risky his 2nd pick? -
2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation
brewcrewdue80 replied to brewcrewdue80's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Well, no-ones posted anything in here for 2 months now. New Prospect Lists have been put out including MLB's for 2015. They need to complete the individual team list, but do have a draft 50 list. Here's the link for right now to get to it: http://www.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=draft Can at least read up on some prospects and see a little video too. 15: Trenton Clark HS OF 16: Ian Happ Cincy College OF 17: Phil Bickford CC of S.Nevada Col RHSP 18: Mike Nikorak HS RHSP Are the around names to where Milw picks. Can use the list as you want. Last season MLB had Gatewood 22, Harrison 23, and Medeiros 29th. Will have to look up the money and picks involved to see what kind of draft strategy the team could make. -
The Brewers would be on the hook for roughly a $37M penalty in July 2015 (overage of our international bonus pool) SRB, The penalty it would seem is going to count towards 2014's International signings. As has been the topic that if Moncada were free to sign before July 2015 he would, and it all depended on the Cuban decision. So he's free to sign well before July 2015. If he signed for 40mil, Milw would be taxed 40mil since they must be at their threshold before penalty. Again, Moncada costs a team 2 years of signing Internationals for more than 300k now so I'd guess Milw could technically trade away their Slots the next 2 seasons for a bench/role player and that 80mil signing cost can kinda be reimbursed back somewhat with no cost in the International market the next 2 seasons. But figuring 2.5mil each season that's only 5mil out of an 80mil cost. So a lot to take on for a team that limits payroll to a max around 105mil. I just don't see them doing it w/o him taking less money. Every dollar spent is $2dollars. 30mil would only be 60mil and that could be somewhat in a realm of not being crazy if Moncada is basically the next Mike Trout/Robinson Cano at 2b or 3b within 2years. I just feel the workouts were more towards 2015 signing if he had to wait. The Cubs were tied to him big time, and considering where they stand in young talent, I just think looking at Moncada was a move to keep him from the Cubs. Since he's free to sign before July the Cubs can't and makes the workout/potential less real to me. Keeping in mind Milwaukee in 2015 would have $0 spent and the 40mil like you mentioned would be 37mil in taxes maybe a little higher.
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Jimmy Nelson - Ready for the Challenge?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Wait do you honestly believe Dontrelle Willis is the Full Time Starting Backup for the team? Forget about Thornburg? Smith? And Jungmann for that matter? Jungmann looked like a lost draft choice when looking at his stats in '12+'13. But you know what? He improved his control in 2014, Raised his K per 9 up. The kind of stuff Nelson improved on to even get to this opportunity. I'm not going to sell him as short as previously thought. He was at 153.2IP last season typical addition would likely put him around 180 this year. I think he'll be fine at the moment. You figure heading in to the season he's not going to be needed and if/when an injury occurs during the season, he'll be more prepared for the job. But Really Willis? There isn't a chance he's even Starter material. I don't know what people expect with Milw's payroll. to run 7-8SPs deep? #4-8 being as good or better than #3 SP value? IF the injuries happen they happen, and take a team down with it see Rangers of 2014. The fact that this #5 is going to ruin the team is crazy because not long ago running even 3 deep in the rotation was questionable. Milw won 90games in 2008 with Sheets, Bush, Suppan, Parra as their top 4 in the rotation. Before Sabathia stepped in to save the day. I'm pretty sure Nelson will do better than Suppan and Parra and likely even Bush. -
There should not be Parity in Baseball. It's as pointed stupidity that's made it happen. 25man rosters run by the Brewers=4mil per player. Run by the Yanks=8.25mil per player. There is about to be a reckoning in Baseball when it comes to Payroll parity with the Cubs and the Yankees when these International Players make the team while being able to go sign 25-30mil deals if wanted. When the Yanks and Cubs and Rangers for that matter begin adding 4-5Prospects with 2+WAR ability to their teams for less than 1 mil cost in payroll? Now it's 210mil for 20 players. 10.5mil per player to spend. And like I mentioned previously, who can freely offer up QOs left and right? My guess is if Kyle Lohse posted a 3.65ERA or less in 2015 for Milw great. If it were for the Yankees/Red Sox they'd say great here's a QO. Either we get a pick or welcome back to the team for 15/16mil next season. ARam? Same thing. I'd imagine the Yanks tag him with a QO after 2015 if they had him. Brewers? No chance. What's made parity is the willingness for teams to trade top end prospects for Rental type players. The fact there's 162games in a season as my buddy correctly pointed out to me when I said 20-7 Brewers! He pointed back oh, so that's like the Packers starting 1-0 with a Lead a few minutes in to the 4th quarter of the 2nd game? Personally, If I could Run the Yankees with their payroll, I'd probably consider nothing but high end RP draft picks, simply because they're always drafting in the bottom 3rd of the 1st round. Build up a Bullpen cheaply spend the money on FAs and the International market for talent or in trades of RPs. Kimbrel was a 3rd rd choice. David Robertson was a 17th rd choice who netted the Yankees a pick this offseason. Just saying in this day and age and the lesser money involved for a top notch College RP, the Yanks could nab a good one or two every season. Continuously fill up their Bullpen with strong cheap RPs and trade one of them away when they have an abundance. It'd be like Jordan Walden/Heyward deal nabbing Shelby Miller/Tyrell Jenkins. The Yanks could always send money away in a Heyward type deal to sweeten it get a better prospect return. Heck it's beginning to happen already. Yanks acquired Didi Gregarious when the Yanks traded a 1year thus far success story in Shane Greene. Now the Yanks have a former top 100 prospect SS they can play for what was a 15th rd selection for them. It should be quite embarrassing for the Yankees to perform so lowly to payroll of late. 2 WS victories in 15years this century. What's crazy is that the Yankees Team Payroll was 92.5mil in 2000 jumped to 152mil in 2003 and hit 205mil in 2005! Where it's settled around 205-210mil for the moment. They doubled their payroll in 6seasons while being ranked #1 in it in the first place. Oh and what about the Giants? 3 WS in 5 years. 7th/154mil. 8th/117mil and 10th/almost 100mil. That's 3 Championships being top 10 in Team Payroll. Red Sox in 2013 were 4th in team payroll. Cards at 11 in 2011. Yanks #1 in 2009. Phillies 12th in '08. Red Sox 2nd in '07. Cards 11th in '06 White Sox 13th in '05. Not a single Payroll WS champs below 13th overall in 10seasons. Where's the small market team in this list btw? So how can Baseball possibly be better in Parity than the NFL? Lets face it, you hit a Grand Slam with a Draft Pick and follow it up with a HR in a year prior or later your team stands a good chance to be among the better half in the League. For GB it was Rodgers and Clay Mattews. If GB didn't have Aaron Rodgers, would they make the Playoffs? I have no clue who we'd have at QB w/o him. I'm sure there'd have been a draft pick to address the need but what player for and what player did it cost to do so? Randall Cobb/Jordy Nelson were 2nd rd picks. When a market in the lower half wins the WS and does so more than once in 5years, then talk about parity. Right now these teams are Feel-Good Stories that come to an abrubt end. Royals lose Billy Butler/James Shields even Aoki. How about seeing if they even win 82games in 2015 before claiming Parity? Here's the true parity. Lose. Lose alot. Draft high multiple seasons and hit on a few choices. Sell off expiring Contracts for prospects in these losing/down seasons emerge a success story for 1-3seasons. Sorry just a long winded rant. It's crazy to claim parity in baseball when no small market team has won a WS this Century to date. Much less twice.
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Echoing Soups opinion. Perez, honestly has a very,very steady line in numbers for a RP. Still has the velocity. I think he can be a great 3.5ERA type RP. I wonder how his numbers would be with Lucroy/Maldonado catching vs AJ Ellis/Drew Butera? He's not lights out, but if you can get him for 1.5mil-3mil? His numbers/stuff would appear better than Cotts easily and he's 3mil handed to him w/o the minor league deal/incentives. Perez did have 10 multi innings pitched outings none longer than 2IP, but he at least offers more than just 3outs if asked. The HR ball is a little worrisome for Miller Park/NL Central parks. But again, for the price paid, I think Milw could come away smelling Roses as it's a super low-risk/high reward type Pitcher. Perez had a 3.42ERA in '13 before blowing up his last 2 appearances to make it 4.33 albeit in a stretch Clv was playing for a Division. Same thing in 2012- 3.34 ERA last game gives him a 3.59ERA after 2ERs in last appearance. Last season could be that down year. And what Milw signed is a Guy who's sub 3.5ERA out of the Bullpen when you toss away final 3 games in '12/13. What I like is his Hits are lower per 9. Hits a lil over 7per 9, Ks near 1 per Ip-8.6/9 Theres underlying numbers that could see him be much better than expectations. Let's hope he does just that!
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I'll join in this guessing game. Brew4u had a fantastic 3yr/54-58buyout or 4/74 with option picked up deal. That sounds legit. I like the Yankees still for this deal. Moncada is now available, signing him=draft pick loss signing Shields=no loss/upset fans in the process. Yankees lost Hiroki Kuroda who finally retired from MLB and Shields fills in his very consistent shoes with the money being just a little more expensive than Kuroda. 4yrs 78mil. They can work the money how they want. More up front for 2years (where they are already expensive 210mil+) Or less up front for 2years(accomodate those 2 years pay more when Sabathia/Texiera/Beltran come off the books) and get payroll in the 170mil range for 17/18. Something like 22/22/18/17 Or. 17/18/22/22
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Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon
brewcrewdue80 replied to narwhalattack's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'm going to throw a name out there that hasn't been mentioned to make this deal happen. Kintzler. I think he could be moved as a way to save 1mil+ the roster spot. All things considered, IF the Brewers add Papelbon, What's Kintzler's role? 6th inning at best? 9th and 10th innings in a tie game? He'd be one person to save a mil+ whatever he'd think of commanding in 2016. 2 mil we'll say. There's 3mil saved over 2 years. I don't get the Parra move, he's just too versatile and fills what Milw needs. Why would you trade him for a Closer just to now have a major need to find Parra's replacement? I don't know for sure this move will happen. I also have 0% points attached to Perez being in Milw's bullpen. To me, there's a good chance he's there for bargaining. The Brewers have somebody they can bring up for 1.5mil cheaply to sit in the bullpen with Saves and Game Finishing experience. Or, let's say I'm right about Kintzler? Moving him as part of the deal now, plus a 40man prospect you now have space to put Perez in your bullpen with Papelbon. I don't know what'll happen, it'd be nice when a move with Papelbon is complete whether with Milw or Toronto or whomever so the answer to what it costs is given. Still hope it's not a promising prospect, more along the lines of somebody downtrending or stalling in growth. -
I just don't know how Milw will afford him. He's been at the 5/100 with a supposed 5/110 rumor at one point. I can see his price falling and years falling but at minimum I believe he's going to get 17mil per year. That 3/51 or 4/68mil. That takes the team's Payroll this year so far past what it's ever been near 120mil. With pretty much at 100mil the following seasons he's here. Barring some Payroll shedding. Then you add to the Papelbon market. If that's still involved and saying Philly pays 9mil of his 26mil you're at 128mil this year 110mil almost next year. You lose your draft pick...It's not the pick that's big or small, its the money tied to that selection. Draft around it's value? Or draft a little less maybe a College RP who may zoom up through the Minors, and then take a potential 1st rd guy with the 2nd selection who falls due to money? The team is going to lose a number of FAs after this season, may be wise to trade Gomez after the season, may pass on the Broxton/Lind Options, and suddenly you're left paying Shields and Braun 37mil or more of your team's payroll with very little surrounding it. I guess the one wonder is can Milw sign him for 1/21-23mil lets say and risk offering the QO next season? Negating the lost draft pick while adding Shields for this 1 big Win it all year? Thats what happened with Nelson Cruz and Baltimore. And it worked.
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I'm guessing 0 chance he signs with Milw. The Yankees will be all on top of this kid 100%, There is nobody else in the running now. He's going to count towards the Yankees 2014 penalties taxed 100% and since they are limited to signing anyone for the next 2 seasons he's an easy target to net being a Super Market. Funny how this instantly puts the Yankees as mentioned for Shields. Pretty sure the ability to get Moncada makes the Yanks believe theyve gotten their draft pick for 2015 the one they'll give up to sign Shields. My guess on the Brewers looking at Moncada with a workout was for the 2015 season if he wasn't made available before then. Maybe a risk taking factor to simply block the Cubs from getting him. Or at the least drive up his Price dearly.

