brewcrewdue80

Lauer isn't a #1-2 type pitcher. He's posting #3 numbers while carrying scary #4-5 Fip numbers. He gave up 27HRs last season and the HRs aren't coming from nowhere. Just another average year 1.3HRs/9. I think the fact he's left handed is where he outperforms his expected Fip/ERA. He's useful til he's not. Definitely not worth an extension. Think about it. Nobody clamor that he should pitch from the bullpen. He doesn't have a plus pitch to his name. Looking it up and didn't realize not only are Burnes, Woodruff, &Lauer FAs after 2 seasons but so is Houser. That does bring merit towards adding a Cabrera or Braxton Garrett to the staff. Not an offseason move that makes sense for Milw but mid-season or next offseason.

Lauer isn't a #1-2 type pitcher. He's posting #3 numbers while carrying scary #4-5 Fip numbers. He gave up 27HRs last season and the HRs aren't coming from nowhere. Just another average year 1.3HRs/9. I think the fact he's left handed is where he outperforms his expected Fip/ERA. He's useful til he's not. Definitely not worth an extension. Think about it. Nobody clamor that he should pitch from the bullpen. He doesn't have a plus pitch to his name. Looking it up and didn't realize not only are Burnes, Woodruff, &Lauer FAs after 2 seasons but so is Houser. That does bring merit towards adding a Cabrera or Braxton Garrett to the staff. Not an offseason move that makes sense for Milw but mid-season or next offseason.

I'm thinking where Milw sits is similar to a timeframe before making the trade for Adames. No pitching trades will happen until right up to or after Opening Day. We've had some minor injuries that caused some delay to starting the season healthy. Team needs Houser and the article is just clickbait. When the team enters Opening Day healthy and more options than roster spaces, then they'll look to swing a deal. Other teams such as Boston(who just lost Story for the season) will suffer injuries and have a need we could fill. More desperate means higher return.

I'm thinking where Milw sits is similar to a timeframe before making the trade for Adames. No pitching trades will happen until right up to or after Opening Day. We've had some minor injuries that caused some delay to starting the season healthy. Team needs Houser and the article is just clickbait. When the team enters Opening Day healthy and more options than roster spaces, then they'll look to swing a deal. Other teams such as Boston(who just lost Story for the season) will suffer injuries and have a need we could fill. More desperate means higher return.

Up there with Cirillo as a fan fave during those seasons. Like Yount had that great stache.

Devers bat is Elite. This is Josh Donaldson while in prime territory. He's younger than Adames while playing longer than Adames has. There is the DH for Devers' bat skills to maintain that contract value. Adames meanwhile value is from the defense and bat production for SS position. His future bat production wouldn't be carried in the DH position. Devers contract should have near 0 relation to what Adames contract would look like. The bat profile is so far behind. Add the age with added team control extension to same age is 8years beyond. Adames is a defense first so lop off 2 years as age decline will affect him more. (Sooner than Devers) Think I posted somewhere 8/175 similar to what Swanson got as the best comp you could get. Side note: I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did. What an impact that could have been.

Devers bat is Elite. This is Josh Donaldson while in prime territory. He's younger than Adames while playing longer than Adames has. There is the DH for Devers' bat skills to maintain that contract value. Adames meanwhile value is from the defense and bat production for SS position. His future bat production wouldn't be carried in the DH position. Devers contract should have near 0 relation to what Adames contract would look like. The bat profile is so far behind. Add the age with added team control extension to same age is 8years beyond. Adames is a defense first so lop off 2 years as age decline will affect him more. (Sooner than Devers) Think I posted somewhere 8/175 similar to what Swanson got as the best comp you could get. Side note: I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did. What an impact that could have been.

The way I'm reading the OP, I'd definitely believe the teams who pick 1-6 are the teams that aren't allowed on the following seasons. I could see how a 13th place team moving in to top 6 and having a losing season the following where they were/are more likely to pick in top 6, arguing that they should be allowed to stay but I mean they would only drop less than 6 picks? How you going to win the argument when you were just awarded an earlier pick the year before. It's a great move in the right direction to penalize a team tanking multiple seasons in a row, to go with the rewards for playing a top 100 prospect from the moment a season begins, to the prospect gaining a full season service time finishing top 2. Tanking teams wouldn't want to play their top prospects until forced by the prospect. Kris Bryant the full example not being played in Sept and held back even further from Opening day just to gain the 7th season team control while tanking that season before. I would think top prospects are called up earlier now with this change for the better for baseball and fans.

Shouldn't even be a thought of doing this year. As a Catcher his career high games played in a season (minors+Mlb) is 112. Part of his success may be not enduring and extra 25-30 games a season like elite catchers do and sustaining their batting. Maybe he can? Or maybe he'll tank? He'll give the team hopefully an indication what games 125 up to 140 means at the plate. The moment his bat dips his excess value he was providing as a bat first C drops. He's not a 900-1000+ OPS bat that history is on. Should he move off defensively at Catcher the bat value for DH is average or lower. Now you are handcuffed with a 5-6year commitment for average or lower at DH. Can't put nearly any thought towards extending catchers if defense isn't their bright calling card. Adding offense to it becomes extreme valuable as they will not be moved from Catcher. We just witnessed with Narvaez what a dropoff from hitting Catcher with below average defense does when the hitting aspect doesn't do its part. He's 25 with 5more years control. He 3 good years of him and ship him off hopefully at his peak(like Narvaez) and let other teams deal with him when 30s come around.

The splits graph has a consistent .300-310 BABIP with 2 months 400+ and 500+, the .500 plus was in 7games used. I think your seeing .300+ BaBIP displays how good a hitter he could be if he wouldn't (as noted above) swing and miss pitches that are in the zone. That .400+BABIP is reasonable when he's hitting line drives during a hot streak. Not full season but he could carry multiple games for the offense with that month. Just can't maintain a 20-23pct k rate to see the value his bat provides. I would believe there are teams to trade him to. But I don't believe teams are meeting the asking price(probably a valuable lottery ticket prospect included) Also we put out there teams that are not in competitive to use and play him. That's pretty few right now with 3 of them in our division. Then you have Hiura's defense liabilities and fitting him with that teams roster current make up. Take KC. Their big contract player is Sal Perez a C/DH. They have a top 50 prospect who's Lefty graduate at 1b. And Hunter Dozier another top 3 paid player on KC who is an infield Util at 2b/1b/DH. They may be in mid rebuild with no chance at 80 wins, but have no use for Hiura. Texas? They have a 155game starting stud 1b in Nathaniel Lowe. Why acquire Hiura to only take up games as DH. I think in the end this is a trade to Pittsburgh like we've done in the past for a scrap RP the Brewers can option this year and may have below 4ERA ability. And a prospect that is a swing SP likely RP who's a year away from Rule 5 protection and turning 25 this uear.

I'd probably have Frelick 9 Mitchell 7 and Turang 8. You said it on vs LHP, Taylor and Brosseau, swap out 1 Lefty Of and Turang. If you can't see 4runs a game, you're not seeing the importance to Winker over McCutchen. Contreras over any Catcher. Mitchell/Frelick over Cain/Davis. We add that Turner fella you're taking the pressure off Turang's PA load as well as Hiura's 3TO style.

Just reading too much in to an emotional. Sure he hates being moved from the team or city but that's business in baseball. Brokenheart worthy would be Hader when he was traded away to a team with less chance at making playoffs than team was currently on. Once Contreras catches some of the Brewers pitching he'll get pumped for his future with the team.

He didn't hit enough HRs in 21(and Wiemer did). The increase last year goes in line why I think he could return. Mitchell maybe too jumps back up. They can slide Wiemer just outside top 100 after hitting less HRs in more ABs.

Miller & Toro I'm thinking are depth and headed for AAA. I think when you acquire a 3B FA (Turner), that Urias moves to 2b, Turang is backup 2b/SS. Brosseau is backup 3b. It does take two to tango and Taylor continues a non-intrest in playing for Milw. We're out ahead in that scenario with Toro and now Miller. As of now I'm at Yelich, Winker, Mitchell, Taylor, Frelick, Tellez, Adames, Urias, Contreras, Caratini, Brosseau, Turang, and Hiura for 13 batters. You get Turner or another starting 3b, I'm trading Hiura then 1st or Taylor 2nd. Miller as mentioned, I view him as security in case some moves change the roster as it stands. In case of injury. And seeing if he continues on an upward trend entering age 27 to make room on roster. (Plus Spring Training fan winning on those SS games)

Turang does have CF experience after last season. (I'd imagine in pinch they can find a position out there that completes 3 OF because I wouldn't play him over Mitchell in CF) Tyrone Taylor still is on the team. I just can't see Milw starting the season without Frelick on Opening day roster. Top 3 in RoY is all that it takes to be awarded the draft pick. Turang it'll be interesting if he finds himself on 2 lists when preseason rankings are updated. Maybe the knowledge with Wong gone, 2b is open they'll put him in top 100 since he'd graduate off the list only some weeks later. All that said, you put Frelick, Mitchell, Yelich, Winker, Taylor there's 5 deep.

Man I'd think Chourio straight up may be a hard sell. What a stud in the making. Switch hitting SS/3b. Looks better via splits as a LHB than RHB so he has the platoon side you want for a switch hitter really love the fact checking he faced 1 LHP as a LH bat and hit a HR off them. Like Chourio, all but 1 pitcher he faced last season was older than him.(every pitcher was for Chourio!) Considering the OF prospects Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer, I'd certainly be willing to do that heads up trade involving Chourio.

Off topic but Reds related and mild rant. Min rumor is open to a Sonnt Gray or Kenta Maeda trade. I went over to check on Gray's stats because I've felt folks thought of him as a #2 near #1 but he produced #4 numbers. Guess he had a decent couple seasons. Min acquired Gray from Cincy and I thought what did they give up? Min sent over their 1st rd selection in 2021 Chase Petty only. Sonny Gray is being paid 12+Mil this season which after Bassitt's FA deal must be 5mil savings Im thinking. So who's this Chase Petty a top 100 prospect I'm sure? Drafted out of HS 1st rd 2.5Mil signing. 70grade FB and 50s across the board. Pitched near 100innings last season below 4ERA good SO/BB rates. Yet here he is #9 for Cincy top 30 prospects. And I'm thinking immediately had the Dodgers, Atl, Yankees, and Cardinals drafted Petty in 1st rd with 2.5M signing, he'd be between 50-80 overall once the list was updated after the draft. Probably top 30 now after his 22 season when preseason lists update. Think Michael Kopech because he jad 100MPH velocity, that's what Petty has! He just was drafted to wrong organization. Just remember that name Petty as he'll be carving up Brewer hitters. For the deep fantasy baseball players out there you may want to stash or trade for him before mid-season passes. Another case in point here maybe towards Ruiz giving back such a return. Petty brought back Gray + a minor leaguer. (Oh I will say that the way Petty is progressing by prospect rankings is what I wish it were more like) Never liked a 1st rd choice immediately being added as top 25 or 50. 85-100 sure, but let's see a season played professionally before anointing them in upper tier of prospects. 1 bad immediate injury with a long recovery and now they are sitting in that spot with low if any games played. OK rant over.

Looks like a trio of reasons to take a stab acquiring Owen. 1. WI homegrown. 2. Will have option ability to shuttle if/when needed. 3. Age&growth. Did bat over .300 in his brief AAA experience in '21. His callup was mediocre batting line. That batting line improved in 2022 age 26. He's a 2020 casualty to lost in game experience and projection. Does he improve on what he did in 2022? Within premium age 26-29. Spring Training will be great for fans from WI and Owen being a draw for them For Mario-hope he finds a new home. GL to him, I wish he'd have had a bigger impact playing for the Brewers. Was apromising prospect to follow.

You know how 30% or higher k rate for batters are frowned upon? It carries an expected lower BA. Meaning less times getting on base. Well for our pitchers less men getting on base mean less runners to steal a base. Brewers pitching had a .302 OB. With a 3.1 pct HR pct. So about .290 OB? Pct.. This vs the Cardinals who has a .314OB but 2.4pct HR rate. About 306 OB. About 95 less baserunners throughout an entire season.

Looks like the one comment negatively on Contreras defense is he had a 14% caught stealing last season. I'm thinking the A's looked at Ruiz taking advantage on SBs and the Braves looked at Contreras being taken advantage of SBs with the larger bases. That said, Milw is filled with high k pitchers. Reduces the opportunities for stolen bases. William is also young and may improve his technique and pop times to be more successful or at least consistent vs worsening. In the end, just think with Quero's future, that the Brewers are trotting out great catchers for the next 7? Maybe + seasons. That's a long time to get the next future Catcher in the system.

That one, I was waiting for Milwaukee to send cash to Oakland as the reason to offset Contreras value to Ruiz and thinking that would be why Oak sent back a Meh RP. But it didn't happen. Pina is pretty good defensively, has been top 10 pop times to 2b 2018-2021 seasons(not enough playing time in 2022)

Trade Contreras when Quero is ready. Or split time at Catcher. Caratini is a FA after this season.

Gotta be something along the lines of they wanted to send Contreras and Oakland didn't want a catcher but an OF. Brewers had the OFs and needed the Catcher. Maybe Oakland also wanted a RH CF/Utility vs one of our LH batting OFs.

While there will be benefits, the Brewers defense can't shift now either. I don't know their stats the last 2 seasons with playing shifts. Now the big 3 are high k rate pitchers, Ashby/Lauer how will this affect them? Houser is such a groundball inducing pitcher, I wonder if this hurts or helps him, considering the defense playing standard would cover more 1b-3b of the diamond. You article got in to the LH batters, but I put something on Adames and his shift numbers being drastic. Looking it up now. About 25pct or 151 PAs they list and Adames had a .248 vs .347 wOBA. .1 is easy to determine a +15 times he should reach on base. I also mentioned with regards to Tellez his BABIP could be driven by his practically slowest speed running. Tellez only jad a .02 difference between shifted and not shifted. 460PAs is about 9 more times he should been on base. Adames had a .278 BABIP while career sits .325. MLB avg shown on BRef at .294. It's one reason to hold on to him this season vs trade as Adames should see an improved BA/OB. The HRs and slg you can't determine +or- with shifting or not.

His offensive numbers aren't even that impressive unless you account it at the catcher position. 745OPs as a corner OF is nothing to dream on. Closer to non-tender than extend.with his Super 2 status. BTV checking right now shows Varsho only at C. I wouldnt trade 2years of Woodruff + for 4 Super 2 years of Varsho. But that's what they believe is needed. Fwiw Varsho is 0-6 with 3ks vs Woodruff.