brewcrewdue80
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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80
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Looks like the one comment negatively on Contreras defense is he had a 14% caught stealing last season. I'm thinking the A's looked at Ruiz taking advantage on SBs and the Braves looked at Contreras being taken advantage of SBs with the larger bases. That said, Milw is filled with high k pitchers. Reduces the opportunities for stolen bases. William is also young and may improve his technique and pop times to be more successful or at least consistent vs worsening. In the end, just think with Quero's future, that the Brewers are trotting out great catchers for the next 7? Maybe + seasons. That's a long time to get the next future Catcher in the system.
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That one, I was waiting for Milwaukee to send cash to Oakland as the reason to offset Contreras value to Ruiz and thinking that would be why Oak sent back a Meh RP. But it didn't happen. Pina is pretty good defensively, has been top 10 pop times to 2b 2018-2021 seasons(not enough playing time in 2022)
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Trade Contreras when Quero is ready. Or split time at Catcher. Caratini is a FA after this season.
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Gotta be something along the lines of they wanted to send Contreras and Oakland didn't want a catcher but an OF. Brewers had the OFs and needed the Catcher. Maybe Oakland also wanted a RH CF/Utility vs one of our LH batting OFs.
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While there will be benefits, the Brewers defense can't shift now either. I don't know their stats the last 2 seasons with playing shifts. Now the big 3 are high k rate pitchers, Ashby/Lauer how will this affect them? Houser is such a groundball inducing pitcher, I wonder if this hurts or helps him, considering the defense playing standard would cover more 1b-3b of the diamond. You article got in to the LH batters, but I put something on Adames and his shift numbers being drastic. Looking it up now. About 25pct or 151 PAs they list and Adames had a .248 vs .347 wOBA. .1 is easy to determine a +15 times he should reach on base. I also mentioned with regards to Tellez his BABIP could be driven by his practically slowest speed running. Tellez only jad a .02 difference between shifted and not shifted. 460PAs is about 9 more times he should been on base. Adames had a .278 BABIP while career sits .325. MLB avg shown on BRef at .294. It's one reason to hold on to him this season vs trade as Adames should see an improved BA/OB. The HRs and slg you can't determine +or- with shifting or not.
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His offensive numbers aren't even that impressive unless you account it at the catcher position. 745OPs as a corner OF is nothing to dream on. Closer to non-tender than extend.with his Super 2 status. BTV checking right now shows Varsho only at C. I wouldnt trade 2years of Woodruff + for 4 Super 2 years of Varsho. But that's what they believe is needed. Fwiw Varsho is 0-6 with 3ks vs Woodruff.
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The idea is more in line that Sanchez is RH bat and in 2021 OPS over .900 vs Starters. 800+ vs LHs overall. Sat just over 700OPS vs LH starters in 22. Also Narvaez hit a total 17HRs the 3 seasons in Milw. Sanchez with 49 his last three. I think when looking at the other mediocre C FAs Sanchez tops them on HR ability. Statcast also has Sanchez top 10 Pop times to 2b and 3b every year in his career. That may help defend the new base size, 29% career caught stealing. Looks about .1 seconds better than Narvaez aside from 2022 3b pop times where Narvaez had a career best only .01 from Sanchez. It's really tough on deciding the route you want to take. The FA route costs just money but you are getting -1 to 1WAR players. Trading will cost you at least Mitchell grade and more prospects. While you improve at Catcher, the lost Mitchell + makes it feel lateral and possibly worse over the next 2seasons. You can just wait on Quero. I believe any trade for 1 of Toronto's Catchers will cost us 1 of the team's current SPs with the Mitchell grade prospect. Catchers are that 70-125 games max behind the plate, is that approx 800 OPS really important in your lineup?
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I think I'd sign Gary Sanchez to a 1+1 mutual option deal. 1yr 7.5Mil with mutual option of 9Mil. 1.5Mil buyout. So 2/16.5 max. I think Sanchez by looks offers the most floor/ceiling combo of FAs. The more and more I look and read about Jeferson Quero-19 success at A level already, no doubt defensively. I just dont want to hold that back when he's ready. He's going to be in top 100 lists sooner than later. I look at Moreno on Blue Jay's going from #8 TBJ prospect in 2021 playing just 37games and suddenly top 10/15 in all of baseball preseason lists 2022. Cartaya for LA is another example. Should I be right, that mutual option gives the Opening day 2024 "opening" to start Quero at C and decline on Sanchez. On Sanchez end, he'll get 9mil to play 23, goes big and can decline for a bigger FA payday. Should neither happen(top 100)/Sanchez mediocre season, you have a decision for 2024 and not locked in with or without a Catcher. Edit add- Could easily see a team like Miami or Pittsburgh offering 2 yrs+option.
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I think I'd sign Gary Sanchez to a 1+1 mutual option deal. 1yr 7.5Mil with mutual option of 9Mil. 1.5Mil buyout. So 2/16.5 max. I think Sanchez by looks offers the most floor/ceiling combo of FAs. The more and more I look and read about Jeferson Quero-19 success at A level already, no doubt defensively. I just dont want to hold that back when he's ready. He's going to be in top 100 lists sooner than later. I look at Moreno on Blue Jay's going from #8 TBJ prospect in 2021 playing just 37games and suddenly top 10/15 in all of baseball preseason lists 2022. Cartaya for LA is another example. Should I be right, that mutual option gives the Opening day 2024 "opening" to start Quero at C and decline on Sanchez. On Sanchez end, he'll get 9mil to play 23, goes big and can decline for a bigger FA payday. Should neither happen(top 100)/Sanchez mediocre season, you have a decision for 2024 and not locked in with or without a Catcher. Edit add- Could easily see a team like Miami or Pittsburgh offering 2 yrs+option.
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Meh, his RP ERA is was under 4.5. His numbers 2018&19 looks below 2.5. He's not a SP for 23 he's a RP for X amount of days if kept.
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Josh Hader is still pitching for San Diego. His last 12 outings on the season were 11.1IP 2ER. 14ks. Postseason 5gms 5.1IP 0ER 10ks. San Diego likely can get a better headliner in trade than what Brewers did because we sold low and they have a history to say they fixed him and sell high. Ruiz had a poor DoWL and I'm feeling he's a 1 yr minor league wonder soon to be a utility bust when in the majors. Gasser has some promise but did display a stretch for his AAA with a lot of walks. That's a lot of low ceiling for trading essentially the #1 RP in baseball the last 4 seasons. Padres likely trade him at deadline if he's bad and a reason they're not in the playoff picture, or they offer him a QO after another top notch season and get that pick(if he doesn't accept) Hader just may provide as much or more WAR for SD in 2023 than what the Brewers get from the two prospects by the end of their Brewer career.
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Trevor Bauer turned a 1yr contract with Cincy, won the Cy Young and got 100mil basically for next 3 years. Pitchers don't bat anymore. Burnes health risk and future money is near minimal. TJ? He'll still have a 40mil per year truck backed up to him in FA. You're seeing this by the Mets gambling 43mil per on Scherzer and Verlander. The dont have to worry about a batting/running injury. TJ? I'm sure there's insurance that will alleviate some of the cost though not to team payroll. As to the Bonilla idea, let's be serious, money in today's game is just insane compared to the money in the game when Bonilla inked that contract. Theres no reason for Burnes to take that kind of deal.
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I took this from mlb site posted back a page- Any player with less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season who placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline now receives a full year of service time if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting The top 3 is draft pick compensation.(if on Opening day roster+on 2 top 100 lists) Top 2 is player's awarded full year service time.
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You gain the year when there's only 171days left in season. 172 is full. 2nd week of June should just keep from being a Super 2 already gained the year some 40-50 days before. Oh man doing all this RoY research and from what I seen, it didn't look like Baseball America even had Frelick on a top 100 list. I thought Turang was a top 100(like 96/98th) but MLB currently doesn't have him on there. Wiemer and Chourio are the only 2 I can confirm on 2 lists atm. ESPN list Im not subscribing and don't know their top 100. All this is draft pick/Roy concern won't be known til preseason top 100s of those 3 come out.
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Just gotta finish top 2. How many more days missed does he need to avoid that potential? 138days for Rutschman got him to 2nd. You're likely waiting 3 more weeks for Super 2 avoidance, but is that enough? What if all those top guys are also kept back til then? Lemme go look at Roy the last decade or 2. Okay. Winners last 15 years latest dates started 3 from AL- Wil Myers June 18th 88gms played, Carlos Correa June 8th 99gms played, Yordan Alvarez June 9th 87gms played. There were a few just over 100games. But Frelick playing 100 or more games must mean they started him Opening Day. I'll have to see on 2nd place finishers the 3 latest starts, but you gotta be thinking based on the 3 winners you aren't giving Frelick over 75games played if you didn't begin him on Opening day. Live updating. Gary Sanchez finished 2nd 53gms played, TreaTurner 2nd 73gms played both in 2016. Lindor finished 2nd with 99games played to Correa. Oh and I mention trade deadline for 40man roster implications. You don't play Frelick before deadline you save 1 on the 40man for moves while also insuring he doesn't finish top 2. I guess in reading on this, if any top 100 prospect had below 60days this year, they would still qualify for opening day Roy for 2024. That means....
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Mentioned this in terms of Frelick, that if they didn't start the season with Frelick on the roster they may as well keep him down til after the trade deadline. Any player with less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season who placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline now receives a full year of service time if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting. Rutschman was on the roster for 138 days and would not have earned a full service year in 2022 if not for his top-two finish. So you have 2weeks or more depending where they finish in the ROY voting. A team is compensated with a draft pick if the prospect is on the roster from opening day and finishes in the top 3 in votes(again need to be top 100 on the lists) Typical Super 2 often requires 2years and 120-130 days on a roster(though it has been lower/Hader when at 2.115) As someone mentioned a season is 172days but there is about 185 days in that season. So you would look at 71days to most likely not accrue the roster time for Super 2 status. But generally about 1 week more so 64/65 days then.
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You're forgetting one important aspect. Chicago is a big market and can fill in holes with $$$ like what Milwaukee needs right now or extend players keeping them on the team. Stevetheump.com/payrolls has the White Sox at 181.6 Mil payroll at the moment and Milw at 122.3 Mil. Last season at 126Mil to Milw's 87.7 mil. And for what it's worth, the White Sox haven't made it passed the Division series in the playoffs, so still 2 steps away. After 1990 Cincy, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have a combined 0 WS appearances. Since 1982 the 3 teams have produced 1990 Doug Drabek-Pitts, 2020 shortened season Trevor Bauer-Cin and 2021-Corbin Burnes Cy Young winners. Any kind of thought that trading away Cy Young winners/vote getters will return equal future quality is mostly fantasy. The traded players the White Sox gained have accomplished 0 ALCS or WS, 4 or more seasons playing with the Sox. That sets the stage for where Milw trading such decent players begins because you know $$$$. It also shows how long it will actually matter before the players traded for payback the success. I'm sticking this 2years out with Woodruff and Burnes.
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It would be awesome to not only make but win the World Series. Burnes and Woodruff (with Peralta) provide a stellar SP trio to begin with. The team has 7? Stellar prospects that are projected to be on the team in 2023 or 2024 if not already beginning (Mitchell, Ashby) The opportunity to do this likely won't be any bigger than the 2024 season as the prospects catch up to the Vets. Forget this idea to trade the Elite vets away and run it out Prince Fielder style with QOs to both Burnes and Woodruff. See unlike Fielder, we will get compensation guarantee after original 1st rd choices. The team hasn't had pitching like this compared to the rest of MLB in the 30+ years I've been a fan following Milw. The moment 1 or both are removed from the team, it'll be at least 4 seasons to never having that advantage again. Don't care what 2023 trade deadline/offseason trade return we may miss out on. We will end up going the next decade trying to acquire a #2/3 rental to round out the SPs for a "playoff run". Rather than 1 extra quality prospect with what should be a sure thing headliner, allow the team to find 2 talents to develop from the draft. 2024 if we are sitting below 1st place at deadline trade them both. No QO can be given and both will reap benefits due to that. It seems to me trades aren't including the added 1st rd value a team will get by just keeping that player. So the value loss from trade now to Rental value won't be much at all.
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Just a note on ROY. Pretty sure 1 guy finished in top 2 who essentially spent weeks in minors, but then still accomplished the feat. His reward was gaining the full year of service time 172days. Frelick could be back and still accrue a full year of service time. He has to be on the 2023 Opening Day roster so Milw gains a draft pick should Sal accomplish that ROY. It's that or club needs to hold him in minors until after trade deadline. Guarantee he won't play enough to win anything and knowledge of 40man workings, keeping him off it.
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Man Toro has a Brutal OB pct at the ML level. He can go sit in AAA all year while Turang plays 2b. For as long as his MLB suck has gone on for, Toro has Below! 50 Games played in AAA. I believe I was also interested in him as above poster showed in 2020. He should provide depth in case of injury. If Winker is majority DH, this means all Milw has left is a Catcher to sign or acquire and the roster is set...no?
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Technically they added to the payroll. Guess Toro must be a Super 2 with projected 1.4M. I think that the 1.75M sent by Milw helped even out that Trade Values
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Article: Do the Brewers Need to Trade Christian Yelich?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Thanks on posting bout Yelich vs the shift. I had noticed his numbers were better against the shift last season than when teams didn't use the shift vs him. I'd wonder since being played straight up he would change his batting approach, only to roll over a soft grounder to 2b anyway. Gotta remember Yelich is turning 31. Age decline imminent. His avg velocity went 92+ up to 94 to 91 and 91.5 last year. That launch angle doesn't improve the continued lower exit velocity will wreak havoc on his expected BA. On the other end he did go from 91 to 91.5 and as svuemrules noted had 98th percentile max exit velocity. Maybe he's rounding back to 2018 form. Truthfully he's a 5-7° higher launch angle where he's elite. Any added higher launch angle up to 14 will make his numbers better than last season. -
Article: Do the Brewers Need to Trade Christian Yelich?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I would think part of that projection is history/career based. He's getting a bump because 2018&19. He puts another 2021 this year, I would think he won't see a 2 first in any of his future projections. -
Article: Do the Brewers Need to Trade Christian Yelich?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Is it a stretch for the Counsell platoon love to use Taylor, Perkins, and Ruiz RH side with Mitchell, Frelick , and Yelich LH side? Wiemer imo is the OF they sit back on to avoid Super 2. Taylor honestly feels like a trade candidate to a Pittsburgh/Miami/Kansas City type rebuild club, keeping Frelick or Mitchell in the lineup regardless of platoon at CF position. This would allow Ruiz&Wiemer freedom on option if/when needed(I imagine Taylor doesn't have 1) Perkins being the placeholder/depth until Milw is forced to call up Wiemer or Chourio. -
There is a 2.5 year age gap between Cartaya and Chourio. Chourio has 2 more seasons before needing to be protected on 40man. Cartaya is there now while near virtual game experience at A/A+ level. We've seen how poor k rates can worsen with Hiura. The pitching he'll see at AA will be improved both K% and BB% this season will go a long way determining what type of hitter becomes. If Cartaya is sticking at Catcher, how he holds up as 100 games turn to 120 is another thing to watch for. Chourio won't have that demanding a defensive position, keeping his offensive beyond 100games isn't a question. Cartaya may very well be a top 10 current prospect, but my opinion is he is in no way a top 10 prospect trade value. Forcing you to put on your 40man when at a minimum 1year away from playing 1 game at the Major league level. Strong chance he is 2 years away. Nothing like holding down 1 of your 40man spots 2years seeing 0 games played. Give me Vargas many times over Cartaya. Cartaya should be behind Vargas in prospect rankings.
