brewcrewdue80

It'll be interesting to see where the Brewers rank over the next 3 years when Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, and Wiemer take on full time rolls. Contreras and Turang as well. The k pct should lower, BA higher so do we go back above 15th or stay lower 6.

You can't sell me on this one. This doesn't sound like Park Factors at all. Determined by looking at each pitcher and batter, controlled by handedness and comparing the frequency of that metric in a selected park to the performance of the players in those other parks. So it's a guess. An assumption. I mean the sample size to create such a number and then implement players in a different ballpark and guess the results at that ball park. You would be putting pitchers and players in ballparks where they didn't even play in, in to that equation. Brewer hitters strike out a ton as do opposing hitters vs Brewer Batters. So either that is a huge factor in this ranking, or the sample size they are taking from Miller Park numbers is smaller than typical ballparks. 2014: Brewer pitchers at home 21.713 k pct Batters at home 18.574 k pct 2022:Brewer pitchers at home 26.937 k pct Batters at home 24.538 k pct. So if striking out goes in to this park factor well that's quite the change right there between 2014 and 2022. Or like I said reduces the amount balls put in play making a smaller sample determining this park factor on singles. Brewer bats overall hit .235 at home in 22 .258 at home in 2014 Pitchers against .218 at home in 22 against .242 at home in 2014. You can see how projections works with K pct affecting Batting averages.

This is a weird stat without changing the field dimensions or other teams changing field dimension or new ball parks. We have the dome ability to block bad weather. So if not the addition of the 3 factors I mentioned above, how do you adjust singles ball park factors over the years? Does this number come as a reflection to the Pitching on the mound for both teams? The hitters and the combined k rate?

Every season you would extend Lauer is lighting money on fire. You're kidding yourself by saying he would be an Ace on a few teams and otherwise is a 2. Lauer seasonal FIPs make him a #3. His 3rd time through the order last year was near a 900OPS. Gives up too many HRs. Huge red flags as he sits 93MPH with FB. Velocity always declines with age. What's a 91MPH FB Lauer look like with his HR issues? How about as it closes in to 90? Just not the background giving confidence to extend in Milwaukee. Put him in a deep hard to hit HR ballpark and his success can extend longer. It's too bad KC has no push to be good because that park must be the top pitchers ballpark on HR preventing.

The comparison of Hader trading away vs Burnes is a little off imo. There's a difference SP vs RP value. Hader was going to be on his way towards records in ARB for a RP. A QO is the same amount regardless that difference. TJ risks or performance risks(losing FB velo) are more Volatile with a RP who's going to make this huge amount of money for his position. Keeping the SP Burnes whose value will exceed the QO by far more than Hader's is a certainty he's declines, certainty that a team signs him in FA regardless of recent performance or TJ. Which concludes a certainty the Brewers get a comp pick. Hader has another poor season this year and requires TJ, that QO is murky. He may not be offered the QO. He could be offered, and teams or owners wait til after the draft to sign him where there no longer is a QO attached.

In the vacuum of the single play of course a HR is a lot more valuable. Off of Taylor's HR log for last season: 1-Ahead 6-3 Solo HR. Final score 10-5(no impact from HR) 2-Ahead 4-0 8th inning 3Run HR Final Score 7-0 No Impact 3-Behind 0-8 Solo HR Final Score 2-8 No Impact 4- Tied 1-1 3Run HR 6th inning. Final Score 4-1 Win Large Impact. 5-Behind 2-4 top 6th 2 Run HR. Final Score 7-6 Win. 2nd largest impact on game. 6-Ahead 2-1 top 8 Solo HR Final Score 3-1 win. positive impact but not in top 5 plays in game 7-Tied 0-0 Bot 5th 2Run HR Final Score 2-0 Large Impact. 8-Down 1-2 Bot 4 3Run HR Final Score 6-4 Large Impact #1 play in game 9-Behind 1-8 Bot 7 Solo HR Final Score 4-9 No Impact 10-Behind 5-6 Bot 6 Solo HR ties game Final score 10-9 5th largest impact on game 11-Ahead 8-4 Top 9 Solo HR Final Score 9-4 No Impact 12-Ahead 2-0 Bot 2 3Run HR Final Score 5-1 2nd largest impact on game 13-Tied 0-0 Bot 5 Solo HR Final Score 3-4(10) not in top 5 plays of game 14&15- 2HR game Won in 10th aided by Taylor's 2nd HR. Largest Impact yet. 16-Behind 0-5 Bot 3 2Run HR Final Score 2-8. No Impact 17-Ahead 3-1 Bot 2 Solo HR Final Score 8-12 No Impact. 16 Games 17HRs. 7 Large Impact HRs. 6 No Impact HRs. 4 Modest impact HRs. Taylor played in 120 games. 103 Started. 7 Games largely impacted by the HRs. And looks like about 2 Games worth via his defense over an average defender. Even adding the 4 modest HR games to make it 13 games overall that doesn't even add up to once a week impact when you are praising those HR he hits. If he played LF or RF you are disappointed at the lack of HRs with the rest of the batting line. Being able to play CF defensively is what is saving him from just a waiver wire pass around. I mentioned the Fantasy baseball to give an idea where I even come up with that removing HR statistic. When I played there were 7 categories for Offense. Finishing up the last 50pct of the draft, I would have already identified the high floor players who I could target with my picks and they would present better chance of winning the categories because they were average or little better in categories I targeted to win in my strategy. BA/OB/Slg Rs HRs, RBIs and SBs. I'd punt SBs. Stay away from 7-9 hitters. Win or 2nd 5 straight years. The floor that Frelick will provide with getting on base via hits or walks compared to Taylor's occasional HRs I just feel will help the Brewers more scoring runs in run scoring situations. It's a team game he's going to allow batters behind chances to drive him in compared to the chances Taylor gives.

Renfroe 1HR in 16.34 ABs Tellez 1HR in 15.11 ABs Adames 1HR in 18.17 ABs SS position top tier defense Alonso 1HR in 14.93 ABs. Taylor is still a full game of ABs(Adames) and 2 games of ABs before he hits that HR. All of those players walked more frequent than Taylor. It's Statistics and by them Taylor's HR impact is near 1 a week and the others are near 2 HRs a week. Positional impact matters. Tellez was worth .9 BWAR. If he was RH he wouldn't be playing. Milwaukee also doesn't have 4 1b that could step in and produce equal or better numbers than Taylor has. He's only a 4th OF while in his prime now and in 2-3 years he be tossed around to rebuild teams trying to continue losing, if at all.

Wouldn't doubt I messed up. Not an easy task to do all that on the fly. Something I used to do when I played Fantasy Baseball. Helped identify underlying numbers when trying to build a complete team pre-draft. The comparison is that Taylor's value helps the team about 1 game a week when healthy and hurts the team basically 5 games a week when healthy. Frelick's numbers would consistently help the team with the consistency so 4games weekly with 2-3 games not helping weekly. Maybe Taylor adds a game defensively over Frelick to be 2games positive weekly and 4 games not positive. Don't know how Frelick's defense will stand out next to Taylor's. Judge also had 5 times the Walks Taylor did. So he's also on base giving other batters the chance to advance him. That's where Taylor loses with that 529 OPS. He's not only unable to advance runners but he's not even being on base to be advanced by them. The combo Frelick excells in the comparison. To put 529OPS in perspective, Cain had 465 last season and was booted off the team. 1 HR in 22ABs is fair to say 5 games to produce. The other 4games is 529 OPS. Taylor is treading above water. Each year older his defense is going to see a decline. Don't expect him to have a career after his team control.

Take away Taylor's HR PAs and he's producing a .188 BA .257OB .272 Slg 529OPS Frelick less his HRs- .316 BA .389 OB .399 SLG 715 OPS Keep in mind Taylor had 17HRs in 373 ABs 1 in 21.94 Frelick had 11 in 492. 1 in 44.72 So about half the time Comparable would be 8-9 HRs Feeling pretty certain Brewers offense scores quite a lot more runs with Frelick than sticking with Taylor for a few more HRs.

Personally I'd feel much more confident with the bullpen if Houser was destined to only play there for the season.

You're not saying something I don't already know. Though the BTV difference is absurdly shocking. 2years of #1 or 2 SP in all baseball still in Arbitration compared to 6years of #2-5 prospect in all baseball? Outside factors that BTV isn't calculating in Burnes value would include-talks to extend after traded for vs waiting til his Free Agency and getting a return for future Qualifying Offer. This versus losing a draft pick signing Burnes 2 years from now. Nobody knows the state of mind a GM sees their team. As a fan one has to see Baltimore as coming out of a rebuild with numerous promising young talent that will produce playoff teams when healthy. The GM may have other intentions. Maybe influenced with owners preparing to sell. Or the GM believes the team can win now especially adding a Burnes on the team. So far for Henderson his fielding pct at 3b or SS is below .940 in his professional career minors included. Adames hasnt posted 1 season below .940. Urias career in the majors is higher at both SS or 3b. What if a GM sees his future for 2b versus the SS/3B future Henderson is being ranked for? It's highly unlikely but there can always be a chance. Btw they updated Henderson's minors prospect rankings today as Baseball America lists him #1 heading in to 2023. Chourio is #3

The original thought I said was Henderson but that was when it appeared he was a #70s prospect. When checking the current list he's like 5 or something and I backed out to the next further down but with 2 prospects return. If Baltimore is turning down Corbin Burnes for Gunnar Henderson as you suggest, what a mistake when looking for a SP. Henderson appears their 3b but I'm not sure defensively he can stick there. Milwaukee could send Anderson as insurance for the 3b position in any trade involving Henderson. I'm kinda coming from the idea that Mayo's road would be blocked at 3b. As he climbs levels the risky K pct should it climb would wipe out his current trade value. In the trade idea Baltimore is buying and I'd definitely want something bigger than another OF or a not proving value with Povich. I don't see the upside in both those players who are still well over a year away. Johnson just makes sense when thinking SP/RP He could Start early in games in the minors and as his innings climb move to RP and consider shuttling him to the Brewers if he appears ready. Houser is definitely skilled to be a great RP. Somewhere I said he lost velo on FB but didn't on this secondary pitches which I believe made him more hittable. Plus his walk rate inched higher. Depending where his velo sits likely determines his SP or RP role.

Houser's name popped up in a MLBTR article that Baltimore is searching for a Starter addition. Guess a guy in Baltimore had history with Houser when in Houston as the tie to the idea. Any trade ideas if you sent Houser to Baltimore? At first I wondered on Gunnar Henderson but I didn't realize he was like top 5 sitting on lists. BRef listed in the 50s/70s preseason last season. He would be a headliner in a Woodruff or Burnes deal. Looking down MLB list among their top 10 prospects, there are what reads high risk, high reward types in Coby Mayo and Seth Johnson. If Baltimore would part with both for Houser, I think that would be a trade to agree with for Houser. The two are more 2024 potential than seeing games in 2023 so I'd venture the Brewers FO wouldn't make that trade expecting to find someone to play in 2023.

So annoying towards manipulating for 7th season. Turang does not scream super star forthcoming. Quite a decent amount here expect him to fall flat on his rookie season and wanted a move like this to push Urias to 2b and less reliant on how the Brewers season would go playing a questionable rookie. Those doubts come true you know what will happen? He's optioned to minors rolling his service time back Then, rather than holding him down 2weeks. If he's a stud instead his future control can be dealt with via an extension. 2weeks=Super 2. 4th arb-more money expectations. Good version of Turang extension solves your problem. Lacking version? More time in minors(like Arcia) and the price value should remain affordable/doable throughout. AAAA players going to AAAA Stars going to extend. Middle ground like the feel Turang will be, useful and affordable and mindfully on the look out to find better at their position. I get withholding a minute portion of players til Super 2 is passed. But a vast majority its not making a difference.

They picked a young top 100 prospect in Jordan Groshans to play at 3b. They also have a recently better Joey Wendle to be backup. Unlike the Brewers they are committing to allow their young players play versus leaving a reason to keep them blocked. Plus Anderson's past made him a bigger Arb projection than what his recent play is worth. I'm not too excited since this precludes less playing time towards Turang, Urias, Brosseau, and potentially some of the big 4 OF prospects whomever they go with at the ML level. I think the floor helps the depth among the infielders and those incentives must reward to a return to the non-injured version of Anderson prior to 2021 season. I think in the end they are better with Anderson if he's 26 on the 26man roster than previous #26 feelings who they would field. Especially so should Urias have another typical IL stint when opening day arrives.

Miami acquired Groshans at deadline last season and he took over the majority of 3b games. Miami also played Joey Wendle around the infield and 3b. All but 3 of BA's OF games came after the trade. Brosseau has a worse fielding pct than Urias at 3b BA is better than both with an upper tier arm strength throwing to 1st. Jace Peterson comp works defensively for 3b. Jace was only above avg defense they had at 3b. The EV for BA his 2 solid seasons touched 90+ avg. The other seasons about 88 reducing his numbers. Depth for 3b defense but lower batting ability. Sorta a sideways move and it adds questions towards Turang's OD status. If the team moves Hiura this makes perfect sense.

For a context this is where the turnover begins as the team has 8 Free Agents after 2024 season. SPs~Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Wade Miley(if option was picked up) SS~ Willy Adames 1b~Rowdy Tellez Relief Pitcher~ Matt Bush FAs after 2025 include 3b/Util~Luis Urias RP~ Devin Williams, Hoby Milner 1b/DH~ Keston Hiura 3b/Util~ Mike Brosseau FA after this season is Jesse Winker and Miley if we don't pick up option, as well as C Victor Caratini. Looking at the current top 30, it would seem the team has more than enough #3 ceiling SPs to #4/5 floors. So one would probably think a target in trades would involve a SP with #2 type ceiling(Ace ceiling I'd expect are untouchables) OF we know is set moving forward with a surplus of talent. There are a good number of SS type prospects with a couple 2b prospects. Tyler Black heads the 2b future beyond Adames exit that would see Turang take over at SS. Catcher-Contreras and Quero when ready who based on defense applauds I would think is an early long term extension not long after he begins his ML career. That leaves 1b/3b. The one idea I have is that this will be a future William Contreras home at 1b. There is still Yelich through 2028 that I think could be used at 1b.(he doesn't have 1b games professionally but had 1b among his predraft position) If those aren't 2 solid options moving forward, the team has 0 1b among top 30 and must address the position in trade or FA signing. 3b. I think the belief has been the lacking at SS defensively would have 3b as an option to play(Urias an example) But so far this strategy hasn't played out. The batting ability is SS quality that doesn't fit what 3b should see producing on good seasons. Team like 1b needs to address this in future trades or FA signings. RPs. So volatile and they definitely have options addressing the future beyond Williams. Plus the numerous #3 ceiling SPs that fizzle out to Swingman status generally thought is their stuff would play up more when turned in to a Relief Pitcher. And there are always avenues towards finding RPs in trade or FA signings. 3b is the highest priority fix for the team to find with multiple years of control beyond 2024. Man and going through BRef looking for young 3b types that you would think is available in trade, pretty hopeless 24 and younger. Brett Baty who is one of the types you'd think not available in trade has under a .920 fielding pct in his pro career(where league avg across MLB was .964) Urias was at .940. Not a fun landscape. Players that were 24 and under who I checked on and thought maybe lets see their scouting report from MLB and a team top 30. Think only 1 appeared in a team's top 30 so the guys I thought to look at are basically after thoughts, Would need to see them last a full season playing regularly for their team with 3b as designated position to have faith that is somebody who solves 3b for Milw future.

The forthcoming trades deadline or next offseason are going to need some creativity as SPs will be needed as will 1st&3b. Will probably see some of our middle infield surplus prospects get thrown in to sweeten the return. It's so tough in regards to 1b/3b as the gap from untouchable to top of the next tier always sit wide. It's like 850-900+ OPS to 720-770 OPS. And here we sit how many seasons now where the team hasn't drafted and developed even that 720-770OPS bat at either position. The next 4months of baseball will determine a lot what value they have with Ashby and the OFs+Turang. Gasser/Jacob M/Small looking any the part of future 3s at least. I dream of a day the team starts an over 800 OPS certainty bat for years at 1b or 3b.

Interesting that mlbtr had a Big hype prospects post and 1 name was Ezequial Tovar. a SS for the Rockies who is from Venezuela. Could probably put a brother relation for Pedro? Would be a nice sign with E.Tovar being 6' even and a pedigree line to expect big things coming from Pedro if they are brothers of course.

Shows Y. Rodriquez at 6-1 so 2 inches taller at signing. Also solid 185lb frame. 1 pitcher not even 140lbs! That will require a big change. Pedro Tovar one of the youngest signings listed at 6-1. Would be an early name to watch where he's at 2 years from now. CF 160 so room to build that frame and hit the 6-3 to 6-5 prime height.

I'd be curious how many players signed that were even 6'2 or more versus the amount of players under 6'. More bites of the apple I'd think for the under 6' crowd to do so. Adding. Maybe it's just a Venezuela area thing where typical heights are below 6' There were 6 jerseys on that table and I don't think any were the top 3. Maybe 1 was. So bigger class forthcoming. I'm wrong all 3 were there di turri was name posted above on jersey its dituri together I had eye open for split name. Erue is a little hidden thought maybe different letters.

All 3 5'11" mildly reduces that top upside. Being tied for most money to spend would have liked 1 of those 6'2/6'3" boys that more likely have another 1-2" growth to come. It's interesting to me you go to pipeline and 2 of them already repping Brewers with the hats. The film clip on Rodriquez leaves some to be desired. But it's only like 8 swings and 3 throws that lead to that comment. Welcome to the team boys!

Who is Milw waiving from the SP rotation? He also lines up with being gone after 2seasons. The rotation doesn't need adding. Not short term. Beyond 2024 yes but not up to 2024. Need bats. Not trading bats for short term pitching. Extensions take two to tango. Not a good sign Miami hasn't extended Lopez already to believe his next team will before Free Agency. They did sign Cueto to a 1+1 deal. Lopez has real solid numbers yet via that rumor and trade offers he's giving off value of a #3-4 SP vibe vs a solid #2 value. So that's like 15-18mil FA years on extension. Miami should have done that vs get Cueto. Gotta be Lopez wanted no extension.

Cain had a great first 2 seasons. 2020 happened and I think based how he played out 21-22 that he became more invested in his kids and family than really caring about baseball. Players and stats in this 2020-2024 window we're in just come with an asterisk. There was the lockout last offseason. Minors didn't play a game in 2020. Think some of what we've seen with Free Agency this offseason is closer return to business as normal. The team if possible should still sign a future Cain deal when the right opportunity appears. What happened last season is an after effect of 2020. Unfortunately continues with how often a good Brewer team is stricken with bad luck.

Cain had a great first 2 seasons. 2020 happened and I think based how he played out 21-22 that he became more invested in his kids and family than really caring about baseball. Players and stats in this 2020-2024 window we're in just come with an asterisk. There was the lockout last offseason. Minors didn't play a game in 2020. Think some of what we've seen with Free Agency this offseason is closer return to business as normal. The team if possible should still sign a future Cain deal when the right opportunity appears. What happened last season is an after effect of 2020. Unfortunately continues with how often a good Brewer team is stricken with bad luck.