SoCalBrewfan

Melvin always looked at trades as a means for both sides to get something they needed; he was never out to fleece anyone, but wanted to maintain good relationships with his fellow GMs, and so he moved talent to get talent. That the Grienke trade worked out so well for KC is both an indictment of and a credit to Melvin; we had the talent in the system to be able to land one of the best pitchers in the game, and in the long run those guys have looked better than many evaluators had projected. If the Brewers were completely inept at drafting and developing, how is it that they had future all-stars available to deal? You shouldn't expect the second Grienke trade to have included as much talent as the first, given that it was essentially a rental deal, but I have to say that the package of Segura, Hellweg, and Pena looks a lot more discouraging than it did the day of the trade. On the other hand, the guys the Brewers sent out have essentially all reached or exceeded their projected ceilings, though Jeffress has taken a circuitous route in doing so. I agree very much with the sentiments above that Melvin played a key role in moving the Brewers forward, but that he also probably stayed in his current role too long and that I'm glad to see a new GM coming in. I think Melvin redeemed himself somewhat with the Lind, Gomez and Parra trades, perhaps the Gallardo deal as well, but the roster construction for the last couple of years was truly baffling.

MLB Trade Rumors has a post suggesting that a frontrunner might be Cleveland assistant GM Mike Chernoff; since the source is Gammons there's an almost obligatory Boston mention (fellow Princeton and Cleveland front office alum Mike Hazen) as well. Chernoff has been on the list of top GM candidates for quite some time; he's a development guy who's worked in scouting as well as analytics, and from what I read it seems like he'd be a strong choice. He declined to interview for the San Diego job, but some of the folks who interviewed there might also be on our list...presumably Hazen, Ng, our own SD Montgomery, maybe Eppler? http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2014/jul/17/padres-gm-candidates-eppler-hazen-ng-preller/ Oakland assistant GM Forst is probably high on a lot of people's lists but it sounds like he's being groomed to be Beane's successor?

Garza really sticks out, doesn't he? Pitching is volatile enough that he could well bounce back, of course, but right now that contract is depressing. If they release Lohse, Garza's salary would be about the same as all the other pitchers on the 2015 roster combined...which would be just fine if he were effective. I mean, $12.5M isn't crazy for a good pitcher... While there's not a clear cut ace on the roster, it's sure nice to have steady middle of rotation guys with modest paychecks. For so many years the Brewers have had to pay market value for average starters like Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, knowing full well that with many veteran free agents, you're lucky if you get two good years out of a three year contract. Sadly I doubt Garza is going anywhere, so there's probably only one rotation slot up for grabs, until someone gets hurt, and plenty of candidates. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see them trade Peralta before he hits arbitration.

It's kind of amazing how we went from a pretty settled roster entering 2015 to question marks everywhere. Next year will be spring training all year long I think....just like now. The timing of newcomers like Arcia, Reed, Santana will be interesting. My gut feeling is that none of those three go North with the big club in April, but that all play in Milwaukee at some point during 2016 and are in the opening day 2017 lineup. And honestly, the roster they start 2016 with will be way less interesting than the one they end the year with. There will be quite a few decisions to be made with the back half of the roster very soon; in particular they have a ton of infielders on the 40 man roster who are redundant and will need a bunch of slots for young players. I don't have a good sense of who they like on the corners from among Perez, Herrera, Dominguez, Rogers, Clark, but presumably they don't keep all of them, even if Lind is still here. Similarly, I could imagine any one of about ten middle infield combos next year, drawing from Segura, Gennett, Sardinas, Gomez, Rivera, maybe even Perez or Herrera; for all that, though, the biggest question is who ends up pairing with Arcia in their eventual 2017+ lineup. Decisions in the outfield are coming as well, as in the not too distant future we'll have available some combination of Reed, Phillips, Santana, and maybe Wren or Tyrone Taylor. It's kind of a cool challenge for a new GM; there will be lots of decisions to be made and opportunities to shape the roster, with some promising assets and a lot of incomplete pieces. If it's me, I try to put a great defense behind our young pitchers, given that the offense doesn't look great in the short term. I'd shop Segura, Lind, Davis, Gennett, and Braun this offseason, most aggressively trying to move Segura or Gennett and Lind, and give Sardinas and Rogers long looks.

It's not really that many, and usually there are several pitchers as there are always innings to be had, especially if they are putting a cap on some of the younger guys. When Lohse goes that's one slot anyway, and that day will come sooner or later. (Please?) Goforth has been up and down, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't up in September. Davies is a strong rotation candidate for next year with very little left to prove in AAA, so it's good to bring him up to get a few September starts and a taste of big league hitters. Cravy they might well just shut down as he's already passed his career high in innings, and Wagner wouldn't come up until Biloxi is done. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd think they'd want to get one last look at Pena and Burgos to decide whether they're part of the future or not. Possibly those ships have sailed, though... Position players are another story; there are a bunch of infielders on the 40 man roster they need to sort out.

What good can come of giving Lohse any further starts? Trading him just isn't likely at this point and he's just taking innings from players who still have a chance to be part of the future. When your team is not doing well, it only makes sense to use that major league playing time to evaluate players. It's the great advantage of a lost season...we can give Hernan Perez and Logan Schafer a bunch of ABs to see how they respond. We have 24 games in August before rosters expand Sept 1, plus four off days. Tell Thornburg he will make four starts guaranteed, taking over the rotation slot occupied by Lohse. After those four, it's September, when you'll be adding a slew of pitchers, including potential starters Cravy, Davies, and possibly Wagner* and Burgos, as well as relievers Goforth and Pena. They need to make some 40-man roster decisions this offseason (e.g., add Burgos? keep Thornburg and Pena?), and they should have as much good information as possible when doing so. *Edit: Wagner will presumably be pitching for the Shuckers in the playoffs...

I would be highly reluctant to trade a top tier position prospect one-for-one for a pitcher. Pitching is just too volatile, and pitchers too susceptible to injury....you are assuming extra risk with the pitcher so I'd need more talent in addition. The Brewers have had top-tier prospects who were pitchers beyond Ben Sheets: Tyrone Hill, Nick Neugebauer, Narciso Elvira all made it to lofty positions on the BA top 100 and none of them had much impact. Jose Capellan was rated at #25 on the BA list in 2005; it seemed like a coup when we traded for him, but he ended throwing under 100 innings for the Brewers. You will need to assume some risk to get a young ace in a trade, but Arcia is the single most valuable piece we have right now and that's a lot to risk.

Segura is a hard guy to value. He's still approaching his peak, and has shown that he can be an adequate major league player at a difficult position to fill, with 3 years control after 2015. There have been enough flashes that you think he could still break out and be better than average...but enough track record that you think he never will be much more than he is now. Thing is, what he is now has value; there are contending teams with holes at short or 2b right now, eg LAD or KC or NYY, and you have a pretty good sense of Segura's floor. He's a patch for this year who will fill a hole and gives you options down the road, either as a starter or a utility guy....he's doing more or less what Andrus or Castro are doing for a small fraction of the price. I do feel like the Brewers value him more than other teams, and there are only a few teams in the mix for an infielder right now. For that reason I'd be a bit surprised if he is traded for scraps this deadline; I think the Brewers will either get something fairly juicy or hold on to him and look to move him this offseason.

I would guess that they would keep Lara and Gatewood at different levels until they're ready to definitively move one or the other off of SS...I believe scouts have questioned whether either guy is a shortstop long term but early returns don't seem too bad. I guess they did have Rivera and Arcia together for a a while this year but that was short-lived. Similarly, with Clark I think it is hoped he will be a CF, whereas Harrison might be suited for right, but has been playing CF...they might both be ticketed for Beloit but maybe Clark leapfrogs Harrison? Very cool, to be sure; Stokes is the most pleasant surprise this year for me, followed closely by Perry.

Honestly, picking up Dominguez and even Hernan Perez give me a tiny shred of hope, or maybe even two. First, maybe that the powers that be have figured out that they're in the talent acquisition phase...they are more willing to use this year to give playing time to guys that might have some upside. Dominguez was not so long ago looked at as a top prospect, and while his offensive game has some massive warts, he does at least have the reputation of playing defense well enough that he doesn't need to be a great hitter to have value. (Admittedly, the last year plus he has fallen short of even that low bar...) Which leads me to the second thing; maybe, just maybe, somebody in Brewerland has learned to value defense? If we're going to be going with young pitchers, many with ground ball tendencies, it would be kind of nice to at least put a good defense behind them. OK, it's not a lot of silver lining, but it's something... Taking the risk of losing WCW does seem a bit odd after the investment, but if you can't get outs in Brevard County at age 23, I'm not sure you're really a prospect any more, and I'm not sure a team is likely to spend a 40 man roster spot. The best thing for him would be to be off the 40 so he can develop or not at his own pace.

It took me three years to figure out that yuku was no longer a thing...and migrate to the new board. Was wondering why there was so little activity... Thanks for the welcome!

I'm more intrigued by the rookie leagues than has been the case in quite some time. I'm particularly curious to see how the outfield assignments shake out; with Segovia and Pierre up from the DSL (I assume?), added to high draft choices Clark and Orimoloye, Maryvale seems to have an embarrassment of riches.

Seriously though, why would you want to live the minor league lifestyle in your late 30's with millions in the bank and a family at home (does he have kids?). Dude was on the couch watching the 1996 NLCS DVD for the fifteen thousandth time and his wife snapped and made him promise to get a job?

Some pipe.

Mr. Goldenhands indeed. Though it may be really wrong of me, but I then think of Moises Alou and his, er, unusual training regimen.

How is he still around... They found him parked out in the desert, all the fluids drained out of him but otherwise in pristine condition.

How is he still around... They found him parked out in the desert, all the fluids drained out of him but otherwise in pristine condition.

I think it would take about seven runs for me to breathe easy in the ninth. I don't know if the ticker can take another inning like that.

I think it would take about seven runs for me to breathe easy in the ninth. I don't know if the ticker can take another inning like that.

I know what the numbers say, but Marcum isn't in the class of Greinke or Gallardo. Greinke and Gallardo are workhorses fully capable of 220 inning seasons, 200+ strikeouts and dominating opponents. Marcum is a guy with plenty of moxie that will get you 6 solid innings, but the 3rd or 4th time through, hitters start to gauge his stuff and he's not able to counter that. As for his value to the team, I like to look at the team's records in games started by the pitcher. Brewers are 18-7 when Greinke starts, 18-13 when Yo starts, 17-13 when Wolf starts, 15-11 when Narveson starts, 4-3 when Estrada starts, but just 15-16 when Marcum starts. The Brewers have lost more of Marcum's starts than they've won. I'd be hard pressed to call him more valuable than either Greinke or Gallardo. Well, I'd bet on Marcum being less valuable in coming years as well, but these are not good comparisons. According to bb-ref, Marcum has received run support of 3.7 per GS*, as opposed to 5.1 for Grienke and 5.2 for Gallardo. I don't know how you can attribute the team's record in their respective games to anything else. Marcum has pitched 6.1 IP per start, as opposed to 6.2 for Grienke and 6.3 for Gallardo. Interestingly, Wolf is the champ in this comparison with good W/L weak run support of 4.0 and IP/GS of 6.5. But really, xFIP doesn't like Marcum as much as the other guys, not surprising with their respective K rates, and Marcum's BABIP is certainly the lowest of our starters at .256, but that's not too far out of line with his career numbers. Marcum's W/L this year (and the team's in his starts) hugely underrates him.

Well, there's a nice counterexample to the 'brewers struggle when a little-known guy's making his first start of the year' thing. I approve.

Goodness, heaven forbid an athlete be honest and allude to what the rest of the world (at least the part that cares) already talks about quite openly, and that must be on his mind quite a bit. Seriously, why is it that everyone with even a peripheral knowledge of baseball can talk about the probability that he's elsewhere next year, except the one guy whose life will actually be most affected? I'll be sad if and when he goes, but I'm also determined to enjoy him for the rest of this run. Now go clinch this, guys...please?

I can't tell you how happy I'd be to see the Rays make it over either of the evil empires. It didn't look like there would be any meaningful games in late September, so in most cases I'm glad to see some races tightening up....the Angels have seemed dead several times but keep staggering back to their feet. I think I'd be willing to forego a race in the NL central though...

Oh, great. Now how will I explain what Chris Carpenter did to -MY- son?

Green hit fifth behind Fielder a few days back but he was subbing for Casey then. But what is DPR supposed to mean?