SoCalBrewfan

Though it should be noted that I grew up north of highway 29, and in fact had to look up highway 29 (probably should have known since some schools in our HS conference are literally on that road...). Also my dad knows Dan Woll but I promise I get no commission on any sales of that book.

Well, Adames was going to be in Arby in the 21-22 offseason, and the Rays have a deeper stable of middle infield prospects than I can fathom, so he was probably moving sooner or later anyway. As I said, you trade contracts, not players. The Rays are ruthless in moving on when they don't like the cost to production ratio, and at most the slow start moved things forward a few months. They obviously have liked Rasmussen for a while, so maybe they're happy with the outcome from their end. I think most people at this moment feel like the Brewers did very well, but there's a lot of cheap years between JP and Rasmussen that might end up saying otherwise.

It's been a kind of weird season, hasn't at all conformed to expectations, but I believe that this is the best Brewers team I've ever seen. (And that goes back to include the late 70s...so basically best Brewers team ever.) Best pitching, best defense, and an offense that has improved dramatically in season. It's been incredibly fun to watch and I am frequently surprised at the complaints in, for example, the average in game thread. If you can't enjoy this Brewers season, I am genuinely at a loss. Even if you don't buy that they're the best ever, there's a good case that they are the best-configured for a short playoff series, with three ace starters and an already strong pen bolstered by several decent starters for the playoffs. At this point in my life I have no predictions, no expectations, I'm happy to have baseball to watch and I'm going to follow them thick or thin, but there's a voice in my head saying this might be as good a bet for the World Series as you'll ever see. Of course, since this is the optimism thread, you have to note that they don't lose a lot in FA, and the lineup could be considerably better next year...

The Rays did pretty well in the Willy Adames trade I think. Sure, David Price was a star, but given his contract and years of control, the Rays did pretty good to get a yet-to-debut Adames plus the not insignificant contributions of Drew Smyly....Price ended up making only 32 starts in Detroit, during which time they won the central, got swept in the 2014 ALDS, and then plummeted to 5th place in 2015. In fairness they in turn dealt Price at the 2015 deadline, picking up Matthew Boyd and even Daniel Norris, who would have some ups and downs in Motown and eventually become Reese Olson. Oh wait, you mean the 2021 Willy Adames trade? Surely nobody is making definitive pronouncements on that trade already? I guess I did read on some message board that the Brewers were idiots for trading for Adames, who was hitting under .200 at the time. /s If you go by pre-2021 values, nobody in their right mind would believe the Brewers could get Adames for JPF and Rasmussen. I think the Rays overreacted to the early season performances of both Adames and JPF, but it's important to remember that trades are for contracts, not players, and JPF and Rasmussen have years of cheap control whereas Adames starts Arby this offseason and will get increasingly expensive.

I think it's heartwarming to see that talent-starved coastal teams like Boston and Los Angeles are able to find improvements with Milwaukee castoffs.

Also, in case you missed it: "Garrett Mitchell is looking like the steal of the 2020 draft..." https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/baseball-america-prospect-report-aug-4-2021/

That Brewers gold ACL team is crazy loaded! Presumably those initial assignments won't be for too long, but that lineup today might have more of the team's top prospects than I've ever seen in an Arizona league team.

The Brewers will often give prospects a bump to a new level a few weeks before the end of the season. It's to be expected that many will struggle a bit, but they'll get to face better competition and presumably be more ready for the subsequent season. I think they care less about the stats than many fans do.

Who's this year's Pomeranz? A pitcher with talent and some past success but currently looking pretty lousy as a starter, who they project as an impact reliever, that's my prediction. Ian Kennedy but before the switch to the pen. Folty? (He was drafted by Astros, so some Stearns connection?) Matt Harvey? Heaney or Bundy from the Angels? I am less engaged in AL teams so I don't really know how any of those guys look this year or their contract status, just throwing spaghetti at the wall. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see no bats added, but if they do I'd imagine a multi-position corner guy...I would have said a lefty bat to complement RHH at 3b/rf/1b but maybe Jace is already that guy? I would be somewhat surprised to see a full time first baseman, but I've come to expect the surprising. I don't really get the Tellez move tbh, especially since they don't seem to want to play him.

It's kind of interesting to look back at the Brewers' 2018 draft rounds 11-20 [let me cheat and include 21, because of who was there]. Davis Daniel was a draft-eligible sophomore who did not sign in the end [perhaps this should temper our Riggio dreams a bit], and was taken by the Angels the following year...he put up some nice starts in A+ this season and was recently promoted to AA. Howell and Olson I believe signed for well over slot, and both have developed to the point that they get mentioned in Brewers prospects lists. Cabell developed some big time power at FSU and was just drafted in the middle rounds by St Louis. Nick Trogrlic-Iverson transferred to Gonzaga and signed with the Cardinals as well after the 2000 shortened season and draft. Barger is with the Braves now via NC State. Hajjar went to Michigan and had a great career, just went 61st overall to the Twins. Peyton Zabel is a story all his own, sadly not for baseball reasons. So while I don't really know much about any of these guys, it's likely that we'll hear more about many of them in the years to come. 11 (335). Davis Daniel, RHP, Auburn WILL NOT SIGN 12 (365). Korry Howell, SS, Kirkwood CC (IA) 13 (395). Reese Olson, RHP, North Hall HS 14 (425). Elijah Cabell, OF, TNXL Academy (FL) WILL NOT SIGN 15 (455). Nick Trogrlic-Iverson, RHP, Central Arizona College WILL NOT SIGN 16 (485). Alec Barger, RHP, Polk State College (FL) WILL NOT SIGN 17 (515). Clayton Andrews, LHP, Cal State Long Beach 18 (545). Scotty Sunitsch, LHP, Washington State 19 (575). Peyton Zabel, RHP, T.F. Riggs HS (SD) WILL NOT SIGN 20 (605). Joey Matulovich, RHP, California 21 (635). Steve Hajjar, LHP, Central Catholic HS (MA) WILL NOT SIGN

Only us old timers probably.

From what I can see, McGee was ACC freshman of the year at UNC, had a decent college career but as an on base guy with some defensive flexibility coming into the draft (2019), he was probably viewed as a utility type. Not the guy you'd predict would turn in a night with 12 total bases and 9 rbi, but congrats to the young man. He looks to have been a bit young for his class, didn't turn 21 until the November after he was drafted, so he's not too different age wise than a lot of our A ball players.

For the 11th round in particular, as the first round of day three, using a pick likely means teams have had plenty of time to talk to players / representatives and have a good sense of bonus demands. Later in the day as picks are flying by every minute you might get surprises and flyers, but I imagine the Brewers know exactly what Riggio wants to sign, and feel that they at least have a chance to make it work. They almost always have some picks in that range that end up signing over slot and have some chance of being something, even if plenty of them don't pan out. See for example Chad McLanahan who signed for $1.2M in the 11th round (in '16) as a potential power bat with an ASU offer in hand.

Sometimes I think Stearns with utility guys and relievers is like me with board games, beer, and music. He sees the next shiny thing and seemingly forgets about the perfectly good shiny thing he just picked up. That Ballast Point IPA was last week, have you tried this one from Offshoot? Mostly they do a good job of not moving too quickly on players, but just this year McKinney and Bickford are examples of guys that they maybe just maybe pulled the plug on too soon. It should also be noted that the Brewers remorselessly cycle a few pitchers with options between AAA and MLB and use the 40 man roster as a resource. So Milner can be in their plans as guy who will be moved back and forth several times.

San Diego should not be desperate, despite a very likely play-in WC game this year; the team is in a good position because lots of key players are still young, cheap, and even improving. They have a strong system though it's maybe a bit top heavy, and could probably move some second tier guys for rentals without blowing up their long term. (Or maybe not...if you believe fan graphs, there's a substantial gap between their four top 100 guys and the next tier who are 40+ FV...the Brewers OTOH have like eight players who are 45 or 45+.) I don't know how they should approach the deadline, honestly...it seems unlikely that they'd miss the WC but challenging to win the division outright, so how much resources should you spend for a playoff run? Hosmer is one more glaring weakness, but that contract is a doozy. How much do you spend for a pitcher assuming some of the injured guys will be back? Also, their best prospect is an infielder but they look to be pretty set at ss, 2b, and 3b. Abrams could be a valuable piece but probably you get better return in the offseason. Do you instead move Machado or Cronenworth at some point and promote Abrams? Fun times. The Cubs and their non dynasty is an interesting thing. I would have imagined that the strong core of young position players would have led to sustained success, moreso than a strong young pitching staff, because position players tend to be less volatile and I would have assumed the Cubs had plenty of resources to buy pitchers. That should have been true I think, but they really didn't ever deliver on that promise after their WS. The Brewers look to have the opposite situation, with strong pitching but needing to fill in position players, so it's interesting to see how this plays out going forward.

Fourth round JC pitcher, someone surely has bingo now.

Getting Carter for the price of a third round pick is a win, though. But yes, there's an obvious risk for Binelas that he ends up with little defensive value and too little contact to stick.

How about that? If you told me a while back that we'd get Binelas in the third round of the '21 draft...

I remember reading a quote from a scout saying something to the effect that more money was wasted on day 2 of the MLB draft than in almost any other human endeavor. Hyperbole, to be sure, but it's sobering to think how many of these $800K signings will do very little for major league teams. But for the hope of the next Realmuto or Kimbrel or Burnes, they keep at it.

Huh, I guess with a huge bonus pool the Pirates might have a shot at signing Bubba after him slipping to first pick of the third round? That might be pretty consequential down the road.

Yeah, also if you buy into the waves model, college picks this year should be on a similar time frame to HS/JC picks from 2018, which includes Turang, Gray, Bello, Ashby from '18, Lutz, Bullock, Ward, Lazar, and LG Castillo from '17.

I am honestly unsure what to make of the second rounder, at first glance a high floor low ceiling college lefty doesn't seem riveting, but I am reminded of my less than whelmed reaction to Jimmy Nelson, among others. We do seem to like college players of late, though it's difficult to draw any conclusions from last year as it was probably pretty difficult to scout HS players. It wasn't that long ago (2018) that almost our entire top end of the draft was prep guys, so it is interesting to see whether this is a long term trend or a reaction to the value proposition in front of them this particular draft. I still think that the dominant trend is value and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the analytics side pushing them in that direction. Part of the moneyball era was a recognition that the toolsy HS picks were not returning the value that perceived low ceiling college picks were. Then the value trend seems to have swung to the reverse, but perhaps some models suggest the pendulum is again trending the other way? Getting bent out of shape because the Brewers aren't doing what you would, or what you think they should based on your careful reading of Baseball America, is just fruitless.

You'd think that after taking two polished college guys who wouldn't command hefty bonuses Maybe the comp guy, but the first rounder was a likely top ten pick for some, not sure why you think he'd sign for under slot?

Well, you can't complain about this one's height.