Jenkins5

Think more implied since he is forgoing college & will be getting overslot as stated in video. So deal is probably all in place & will just need maybe physical/ paperwork completed before official. Kids still in negotiation never say they are signing without it being done deal. Like Pratt you make it seem you really want to go to college until dollar amount is correct. Lose that leverage otherwise.

Interesting connection that the Brewers Area Scout actually coached him when he was bit younger. Glad he has deal in place & ready to get started! Really didn’t throw too much this year so be interested if they get him some innings before end of year (I don’t think any of the HS kids really pitched last year)

If only they were drafted by a team who has one of the top pitching labs & programs for developing arms…. Oh wait. Choice to go to school not looking great. With only 20 rounds now, think it is tougher to bet on yourself & go to college. The end goal is always to play pro ball & odds are tougher to do so. Big reason only 15% are walking away from a contract. Curious what percent of them are redrafted. Clearly two sided coin considering one of our hs flyers just made much of money after going #12 this year.

Think how good they have finding bats internationally def gives them more ability to turn over every rock & load up on pitching in draft. Most international pitchers they sign are lower bonus lottery tickets & not too many have really popped way the bats have been. Nice thing is the bats they have sprinkled in during draft have experienced a lot of success as well.

Tobias gives me gritty, aggressive, bulldog vibes. Smaller but strong athletic frame. Clean delivery, Good power stuff. Sony Gray’ish. Like the a lot pick. No surprise the Brewers hit up “high school pitching hot beds” of New Jersey, Illinois, Indiana for pitching. They love to find high value where others aren’t looking as hard.

https://lcbaseball.org/2024/07/07/the-times-2024-player-of-the-year-griffin-tobias-will-go-down-at-one-of-lcs-most-decorated-athletes/

Woodward in 4th last year was pretty similar. Not much out there on him at all. I have a feeling he has natural ability to really spin his stuff though and has projection.

DeBerry fits their mold pretty well except he already seems to know how to properly play off his stuff & command all pitches. Figure they think they can add more strength to wiry frame & bring up the stuff a notch. Dude can spin it like crazy.

Which Round do we land our JUCO SP gem this year? I predict the 4th round.

Pool for those first 4 picks was just over 10 million dollars. My mind: Payne: 3m (Tod believe teams valued him as a late 1st early comp pick). Burke 1.75 million. Meccage and Lavonas 2 million each (Knoth got last year). If that is close they'd have little over a million to play with in saving. Then we know we will get 3-4 senior cheap signings. Last year we had, 75k, 10k, 27k, 17k in rounds 7-10. So money should be there to be aggressive somewhere in these rounds. Tod knows how to play with money, that's for sure.

In my eyes it is pretty clear that Payne was a kid they had on their personal board near the top and from their Intel around the league they felt there was a good chance he wouldn't make it to 34. Take the kid you love and believe most in and collect the savings for later. I tend to believe a front office's feel for where a kid may go rather than the draft industry. They simply have far more info. Then factor in the strategy of the draft, other teams are looking to also find guys they love who could be under slot. We can't say for sure if he would have been there at any other pick and they believe enough in his game they weren't going to roll dice. Scouts fall in love with kids and I have a feeling he was one of those that they felt they needed to get. Burke reaction is funny because people complain about not drafting 1Bs but then aren't happy when they pick one who has some of the best raw power and exit velos in draft. Plus had his k% down to 14.5% this year which was great to see. That is an elite tool, I think they found two awesome ones Meccage and Lavonas. They love areas that are less recruited like the Northeast. Mix what they have with the Brewers Pitching Lab.... They could be fun! I think the underslot early to help take a chance on these types of high school arms balances it out.

In First? I can't think of any but O'Rae was like completely unknown in 3rd. Can't complain about the return so far on that.

I'm going to hold all judgement, sit back and just enjoy Tod Johnson cooking in his own unique way. He's shown he is pretty darn solid at his job. Draft classes tend to look much better in future than on draft day. MLB draft is mostly a crap shoot, def outside of having a top pick. Find the guys you believe in and then develop crap out of them.

Brewers are never losing again

I'm going Patricio Aquino. Similar mold of Freddy Peralta and Carlos Rodriquez. Smaller in size but nasty off-speed and ton of life on his fastball.

Watching Foul Territory interview with DL Hall, he said he’s been training all off season to be starter (was planning to compete for SP job this year in Baltimore). Murph talked to him & they want to try him there. So safe bet that they will give him every opportunity to start this year. Problem will be building up innings. I think Ashby could do a double piggyback, more of the original Hader coming in & giving you three innings a couple time a week behind Hall & someone else. Gasser is good to ride. He’s been over 130 in back to back years I believe.

Has a lot of holes right now* Got to believe Arnold can see that & will add on some way. I agree with you if this is rotation he settles with. Too many question marks & risk currently. I like the potential of it with but more for 25’ benefits. Hit up Dodgers who have like 5 or 6 24-25 year old pitchers who are considered MLB ready with big upside that are blocked. Sheehan, Stone, Rivers, Frasso, Knack, & think I’m missing one.

Also came here to say bye bye to Adames if Brewers can snag Sheehan from Dodgers. He’s odd man out in rotation so they are dealing from strength that won’t impact them much. They have bunch of arms in AAA who are on door step. Stone option 2 but he doesn’t have the ceiling Sheehan does.

Agreed, Surplus come from proven guys. We don't know what Black and Ortiz can do at MLB level for sure. Turang we are just hoping he can offer anything offensively in year two. Monasterio had nice season but is he a 1 year wonder or legit player? Every name listed has question marks except Adames (well I think he is vastly overrated offensively but many Brewer fans tend to think he is some offensive stud cause he can hit dingers.) You can't trade from question marks without risking opening up a big hole.

I don't think so really. Ruiz, there was a clear log jam building. He was valuable but didn't have clean path. He was brought in for depth and competition. He balled out with call up, we could have seen another OF like Weimer or Mitchell become open. Ortiz has an opportunity to be an every day player this year for the Brewers. He offers elite D at 2B,SS, and 3B. Whether he wins wide open 3B race, beats out Turang at 2B, or is their almost everyday utility guy. He has a chance Ruiz did not, to come in and win everyday role. Honestly, objectively from metrics across minors and home grown biased aside, is Turang for sure the better player between the two? Granted, Turang was younger at every level than Ortiz, but they both offer Gold Glove D Turang I think grades out higher though. Both similar K Rates, OBP is pretty close to each other in .360 average range (Ortiz hits more, Brice walks more). Biggest difference is Ortiz absolutely smokes the ball and puts up big Exit Velos. Brice not so much. Ortiz consistently was Iso'ing over .18 (Turang averaged out around .10). Ortiz consistently slugged over .450 (over .500 past 2 years) where Turang has only hit .400 once (outside of short stint in 23'). Both have speed but I give that to Turang. Ortiz needs to come into Spring and prove it, Turang had a year to learn and adjust already at MLB level but Ortiz could very easily take over for Turang or be platoon partner for him.

If Gasser doesn't make this rotation after them refusing to promote him last year, all my optimism may get thrown out window. You traded Hader for him. He has done everything you could possibly want him to in Minors. He has had a 11+k/9 to 3.4 bb/9, 20% k/bb%, 3.70 FIP, .220 opp ba. Get kid up and see what he has. Also....... Ashby, Hall, Gasser..... the new Lester, Hamel, Quintana? As a fellow lefty, my bias would love 3 lefties in rotation even if it is frowned upon in baseball lol

It seems like everyone who works in baseball or studies the game a lot really like what Brewers got back. O's fans from forum boards i read are excited to get Burnes but were really high on these 2. Hall in particular was a fan favorite in there and they really hate to see him go. Ortiz, they really like and are happy he will finally get a chance to show what he can do. He was just really blocked on what is a really good roster. If you believe in the trade value crap, it is pretty equal. Really the only people crapping on the players we got and the deal are Brewer fans. Mostly because they wanted close to the moon for one year of Burnes who also has gone from 7.6 WAR to 4.2 to 3.4 over the past three years (still really good but hasn't been out there just lights out). Fans had sights on Mayo (as did I) who the O's legit could have made untouchable. They have a front office who is now cooking and focused on long term competitiveness in small market ball. If they see Mayo in their long term plans, they aren't giving him up and all that control. The rotation has questions for sure. I naturally already skip watching any game Rea is pitching so I get frustrations with where its at on paper. However, I doubt Arnold is done. He still has plenty of cards to play. He has a log jam in the OF he can deal from and a top 3 Farm system to go find another arm. I also love watching young talented arms even with the ups and downs. If Ashby is back to 100%, that is huge. Brewers love him and gave him that contract. He has a mlb career 3.18 xFIP, 10.7 k/9 to 3.7 BB/9. 27 K% in 140ip. Also just nasty stuff. Hall in rotation will be big win but in pen is great as well. I'm a big Baby Capuano Gasser guy so excited to see him. Rodriquez and Mis probably make it up at some point this season and I am excited for that. Overall, this season will be bit of a mystery on how they do but helps set up for a really nice team in 25'. A lot of getting young guys Innings and PAs. Excited to see how it goes.

Right now is the absolute best position for Brewers to actually be and act like a legit small market MLB. Farm system is finally restocked nicely with guys who are entering MLB or close to door step. You have some talented guys with contracts almost up that can be traded (Burnes/Adames/ could count Williams due to him about to start getting paid). You have some quality guys who are young and controlled for good amount still (Conteras / Peralta), A log jam of prospects/younger players in OF with only 2 every day spots and 4th OF (can deal from strength to improve weakness). Brewers could take advantage of the situation and "reload the team" to develop with new manager. See what the kids can do, which ones will be true core players. DS came in and did pretty quick flip & Arnold is in great spot to take small step back this year and then can be more aggressive in 25' - 26' as they find out guys are for real, and replace onces who aren't through strong farm or teams willing to take young guys we lose faith on.

Think back just two years ago. Henderson, Baez, Adams, Rodriguez, and even O’Rae are guys that we would probably have in our top 10s with seasons they have had & hype would be huge. They have just built strong system & have been smart at mlb level to not sell off meaningful prospects. Hope that continues in the off-season as well. This list is loaded with guys on door step of being Top 100 guys by end of next season. So even after Sal, maybe Chourio, Black, Quero graduate, we have rising guys to make list behind them. Wilken, Pratt, Lara, Y. Rodriquez all have the big tools that pop. Brown Jr. Basically missed this season but he’s a guy they like that could jump back up into Top 100 when healthy. Bovee just looks like a Black 2.0. Carlos Rodriquez with his dominance at age in every level has him already in consideration. Henderson has backend Top 100 stuff like Rodriquez. Adams is ignored now but if continues his ways & Brewers actually push him (aggressive promotions get attention). He has 4th highest Brewers wRC+ since 06’ of anyone with 400+ PAs. LaPorta (who was stud prospect that was Top 20 & got us CC) and Braun (Top 5 player in Brewer history) are just a little above

Good news is that was Uribe’s profile originally & seems the lab has helped him harness his insane stuff. Kind of funny to say but it’s tough to have such natural electric stuff. Just hope they can get him locked in over the next year!