Jenkins5

*Gulp* Luis Ortiz making me eat my words.... happy to see him starting to really flash for first time since trade! Even better, the let him throw 93 pitches tonight! Him clicking & getting right rest of the way is huge! Mederois still flashing at times what he could be if he ever figures out command.

That a boy Briggs! Good call!

Lol ^ the worst & most annoying type of irrational & overreacting fans. There is no trade on this earth the Brewers can pull to put them over the top. Please look at the Dodgers, Nationals, & Cubs rosters..... Those are really darn good teams with great cores. Brewers are not near that level & some blockbuster trade will not get them there. Hopefully some fans can float their heads down from the clouds & be realistic about what this team really is..... in 162 game season you need more than simply overachieving.

Is Lemons expected to pitch at all this season? Brewers system is kind of trending in the wrong direction. Brinson does his job, Burns & Peralta been dealing, Gatewood & Harrison are showing growth, Hiura/Lutz have both been off to nice starts to their career..... however, most of our other Top 20+ prospects have done very little to improve stock, with many dropping. Very disappointing when you see talents like Diaz, Clark, Erceg, Diplan, and etc who are top 100 talents if not Top 50 or lower based on potential but are doing as little as possible to live up to that. Been disappointing season so far.

DS running this team right! Love it! Of course overreacting arm chair GMs who think this team is on or are a trade or two away from being on par with Nationals, Dodgers, & Cubs will be upset with him. This team is a developing with no real core yet. Come next year we will be more defined hopefully & in real buyer position.

Yeah Ben Sheets made his whole career fastball/curveball.... he threw change usually around 10% of the time. He was never big on throwing it. As a starter having a curve or change to go with fastball is pretty important to keep hitters off balanced. Slider is a higher velocity pitch still that doesn't keep hitter off balanced as well over 2-3 times through line up.

You know.... I like all those choices!

Gideon lost all his value after the college hitter left Helena.... just another one of those college Helena wonders.

With Peralta & Herrera on the rise..... starting to look like another outstanding trade by Stearns!

I hardly doubt Stearns is scared to trade prospects or make a splash. He simply isn't a fan & over reacts to a hot start. He knows where they are in the rebuild. It was a nice surprise they played that great in first half, however, he is smart to know the roster/system inside out. Outside of Brewer Nation, no one thinks the Brewers roster can compete with the elites like Dodgers, Nationals, Cubs. Those teams have some elite hitters & pitchers. Who on the Brewers could you say right now is elite? We are a roster of developing guys who are either overachieving or starting to discover potential. Braun & Perez are probably the only two you know for sure what you are getting with. You hope Shaw, Santana & Pina are this good. Thames & Aguilar? Broxton? Villar? Sogard? On the pitching side, we knew Jimmy could be this.... he has flashed it. Knebel we thought we were getting a future closer when we acquired him. The rest of the staff..... who knows yet? This roster has too many question marks & holes for Sonny Gray to save the day.... Stearns knows that. This was a 70-75 win roster to start the year. You don't give up on rebuild because of a hot start. We are not true World Series contenders.... yet. Stick to plan.

That very well could be, good call on that. It is just amazing how much his command has fallen off since coming over to the Brewers. Command was one of his strongest qualities. I'm sure he will figure it all out and get back on track. The more I look at the numbers, the more Peralta looks like a right handed Hader. He has big command issues like Hader but up until AAA and major leagues, it is easy to be effectively wild and get away with just being nasty. For his career he has sat at above 10 k/9 striking out around 30% of his batters. At same time been extremely difficult to hit. Hitters struggle to hit .200 vs him. Bad news is like Hader, if he can not harness his command more, he could end up a back end of the bullpen guy. Woodruff, Burns, and Ortiz (if he gets command back) look like the safest bets to being SP's at the MLB level. Hader and Peralta could either BE top of rotation electric guys or be late inning bullpen arms. You hope for the first option, but can live with the 2nd. I have hard time not seeing Peralta in top 10. He one of those guys I'd have hardest time trading away. Dubon is tough. He actually compares well to Arcia except Arcia has almost always sat around the .10-.14 iso range. Both great fielders, contact hitters who don't walk or k much. Both have good speed that they use effectively. wOBA is similar but skewed towards Dubon and he has always hit a little more than Arcia. However, the power is the biggest difference. Outside of the surge last season Dubon is a career .07 hitter. That drops his slugging and OPS much lower than Arcia. Dubon must learn to tap back into that power. Colorado is helping him a bit but he needs to get up to at least the .10 - ,15 range consistently to be the prospect that is rated so high. My guess is that most of these rankings of him are due to them thinking he will do so. If not, he will not OPS over .700 in his career. He can hit .300 all he wants but he doesn't walk enough or slug enough to break that mark

It is the command that is the issue. He started out season doing really well & getting into the 6th. Then he fell off. His pitch count didn't drop in May, his command did. Walking 11% of your batters hurts. Tonight & the 2nd of July he was able to attack zone & challenge hitters. I guess I never notice how little his arm has been built up since being drafted which is why he is on such a strict 75 pitch count. However, issue is still he has not had much command at all since coming over in trade. Overall from 2014-2016 Totals 2014 - 20 IP 158 TP 30-128 ball 2 strike, 4.27 strike to ball 2015 - 50 IP 344 TP 51-293 b2s, 5.75 strike to ball 2016 - 100 IP 1310 TP 422-888 b2s, 2.10 strike to ball Just with Brewers 2017 - 68 IP 1132 TP 449-683 b2s, 1.52 strike to ball 2016- 23 IP 407 TP 155-252 b2s, 1.63 strikes to ball With Rangers His K% averaged around 24% with K9 of 9 with BB% usually 5% BB/9 1.75. Overall putting him by the desired 20% k% to Bb% Since trade though he has been about 18% K% to 10Bb% not great.... 7k/9 to 4 bb/9. So you can blame pitch count of 75 for him not being able to make it to 5IP but the real issue is since coming over he has not found the command that made him so effective in small samples with the Rangers. Talent is there for sure but Ks have been falling, BBs have been rising, and he is not working effectively on the mound. We can blame AA as well except in first 40 IP with Rangers he was pretty darn effective. Very hittable but he was attacking hitters, throwing strikes, and had FIP at 3.36. Better than the 4.40 he has averaged since. We can blame Brewers development staff or naggy injuries as well. Lack of experience. Simple fact though, whatever the cause or excuse, he at the core hasn't thrown strikes. Plain & simple. If he can get back to that he will be fine. I hope tonight was the start! I'm not cheering against him. I just have more faith in Burns & Peralta because since they have been in system, they have flat out performed if not dominated competition. I didn't see the box scored & reports every 5th day when Ortiz was pitching really well with Rangers. Since coming here, he hasn't been that great...hard to show numbers outside of mainstream prospect rankings that show different. He needs to throw some more strikes.

I'll add Woodruff has far surpassed Scarpetta's already as well. I still feel Corbin Burns likely comp will be Chase Anderson. They pitch a lot alike with similar velocity, bulldog approach, craft. Chase & Corbin are no Aces & will have some bad runs when command drops but usually fairly consistent & can carve teams up when they have everything working. Only thing Arcia has in common with Escobar is they came up Brewers, don't walk much & play stellar defense. Comps end there. Arcia is far more advanced with the bat with more power. Also Arcia is extremely confident fiery competitor. You can see it when he plays & you hear it from everyone who has coached him. Escobar never seem to have that edge and swag about him. I think Arcia really believes he will win many gold gloves, play in ton of All-Star games, and will be Hall of Famer. Not in an arrogent way but he just has that confidence about him. It's same attitude & swag that Braun & Fielder have. He will be a leader on this team for years to come.

^this.... people need to "R-E-L-A-X" worst case scenario is we don't make playoffs which I believe 100% of us thought prior to season and don't trade away farm in doing so. Playoffs are cool but we have holes on this team. They can be filled internally for some but those guys will also experience failure that will not help team make run. Like Arica & Santana, chances are small that Brinson & Phillips can just play every day & help carry this team. The Bellinger's, Lindor's, Braun's are the exception.... not the rule. Woody & Hader would also have there ups & downs along the way. At end of day though, that experience they get will help them be ready to take off in 2018. 1st place can't risk that development curve. By the end of July & that brutal stretch we have, we will know where our season is headed. Also I didn't know Gray had an impact bat or was going to pitch in relief for us..... Starters are doing there jobs during this stretch. Davies can't get his usual 8-10 runs of support every 5th day. Just figures the day he pitches great is day bats are dead (outside of Aguilar & Santana).

Oh course he'd pitch great tonight after I make a post about him being the 5th best pitcher in system.... I still believe that's true but it is awesome to see him put together maybe his best start since June 2nd! I am a fan of him as much as it may not seem like it. I just feel we have 4 other very talented pitchers who all have outperformed him. I don't feel his stuff is that far above those 4. He started season going 6 of 7 games of going 5 to 5 2/3 inning. Since May 16th he has only made it to the 5 inning 2x... tonight & June 2nd. Most of that is due to him not having his command & throwing a ton of pitches to quickly reach pitch count. Everyone knows he is talented, no one doubts that. The weight is a big deal because traditionally, the less conditioned you are, the more risk for injuries. Not 100% of the time. He is not on Tyrone Perry's level or anything where he is close to eating way out of the sport or anything but taking care of your body does help in short & long term. Right now, I think he is fine if he can stay at 230-240. 220 with his broad frame would be excellent. He has however tipped up to the 250-260 range. His junior of high school I believe he was 250+ before he cut down to 220 for senior year. Then with Rangers he ballooned again. for a bit. Peralta is 9 months younger than Ortiz & Burns is 11 months older than Ortiz. So there isn't a big enough gap in age to just say he is young as excuse for lack of production from a Top 50 prospect & one who people rate higher than 2 guys I personally feel are just as good if not better. Hopefully he gets back to April production & strings some of these starts together now!

Not sure there is a player in system that can out walk Erny Martinez! Giving Clark a run for his money since signing! Add 2 more today! He isn't really hitting but over .200 his batting average. Not many can hit .210 with OBP over .400!

I've long waited for the day to not see Suter as a top 3 prospect in rankings. Like Suter but no where near that high of an opinion on him as a prospect. Who is next Clancy?! Yamamoto or Perrin?

Lets look at the AA Ortiz argument as well with our Top 5 pitchers Name......Age..K/9 ...K% .BB% .BAA . xFIP Woodruff. 23., 9.82, 27%, 6.5%,.208, 2.79 Hader...... 22 11.53, 33%, 8.5%,.189, 2.67 Burns...... 22., 9.13, 27%.., 3%, .178, 2.30 Peralta.... 21, 14.05, 37%.., 9%, .191, 2.28 Ortiz....... 21.., 7.85, 21%, 11%, .221, 4.19 Peralta & Hader (only 2016 AA stats) are pretty similar Burns & Woody are pretty similar Talent is there with Ortiz & he has stuff but so do those are guys. Age is only an excuse for so long. Peralta is same age even younger. Moreover, the other 4 aren't concerns with conditioning or at least yet. Ortiz since high school has battled with his weight jumping way up. In my books he is #5 with Diplan, Bickford, Ponce, Mederois, Lopez behind. Yamamoto making case to join that tier while Lopez & Mederois are battling to drop out of it. (Mederois is electric when he pitches 2nd however.... just awful starting games)

Finally I am not the only one who is pretty down on Ortiz! I get he is young but has not flashed at all! Peralta has come out at a similar age & been electric! Burns should be in front of Ortiz without a doubt. Hader, Woodruff, Burns, & Peralta are my top 4 pitchers. Ortiz would be next in line. He has looked extremely overrated & none of his numbers really stand out much to me. Phillips smoked ball all season & is year removed from being a top 30 milb prospect.... now he isn't even top 10? That is questionable to me. I get at start of season due to how bad he was last year but he turned it around! Trent Clark, Freddy Peralta, Maverick Phillips, Jacob Nottingham are all more deserving than Erceg. Heck even Gatewood & Harrison. Both are slightly younger & have far out produced him. He's sitting with a sad 77 wRC+ wRC+ BB% ISO Spd OPS Age Harrison...133, 4%....., .242, 7.4, .833 21 Gatewood 126, 10%..., .178, 4.5, .809 21 Clark....... 124, 19%..., .154, 7.1, .777 20 Diaz........ 103, 12.5%, .160, 3.7, .721 21 (just turned) Ray........... 88., 10%.., .125, 6.1, .688 22 Erceg.........77..., 5%.., .135, 2.7, .645 22 Erceg is allergic to walking. Harrison is at same 5% however his career marks are usually higher and closer to 10%. Ray will be on them no matter what due to draft position & tools but hard to argue either as of have higher ceilings or are better than the younger trio of Harrison, Gatewood, & Clark.

O's are opened to selling... probably need to blow them away to get them to part with some of their controlable arms. 2 of their top arms have not been great in Gausman & Bundy. Doubt they are willing to trade Bundy despite injuries & his fastball average velocity losing 4-5 mph this season. The Rockies checked in on both Gausman is controlled through 2020 Bundy is controlled through 2021 Their relievers I am more interested in: Britton through 2018 Givens through 2021 Hart through 2022 (outstanding LOOGY) Castillo through 2023 Britton & maybe Gausman are only 2 I could see them maybe parting with on my list but worth looking into

Maybe I'm wrong, but weren't the A's really in on Gray in the draft if he fell to them? Thought I kept reading he was one of their top targets but Brewers snagged him right before them. MLB scouts could care less about BA or pipelines rankings. That is a measure for fans alone. They could be in love with a prospect in the 20-25 range even more so than one of our higher guys. Look at Lind trade. People were upset we didn't even get a top 30 guy in deal! Now we are sitting with a stud like Peralta who is rocketing up system & rankings and Herrera who is really starting to come on! It should be important to note that BA, Pipeline, and most others weight draft position & signing bonus waaaay higher than front offices do. Looking at post trades so far, the market mostly seems down on prospects a bit. Cubs gave one elite & good prospect but most trades have had lower than expected returns in my opinion. Last note.... our system is loaded. A guy in the 15-25 range could easily be a Top 5-10 in most systems. Burns, Harrison, Gatewood, Peralta, and list goes on & on.

Any team trading with Cubs must ask for major league young talent.....there system may be bottom five now.... traded last two really good prospects. They look more like us few years ago minus a player coming like Arica. Our number 15 prospect could prob be #1 for them.

Michele Vassalotti.... not a bad first 3 outings for the 6'2 180 lbs 16 year old pitcher! Ernesto Martinez is an OBP monster! .200 over batting average! Not to mention he has been getting going at plate!

Hopefully with Brewers sticking with both Demi & Lara, next season they will come in adjusted & ready to hit ground running.

Ortiz in last year at Double A since trade has really not really impressed me. I know he is young for level but a lot and has been solid but has failed to flash. Right now I'd take Peralta over Ortiz just because he has shined much more. I guess I may be in minority but I'm not overally connected with Ortiz since he just came last year, there will always be weight & conditioning concerns, and he hasn't looked at good as I hoped so far. If parting with him helps get the deal done without guys like Brinson, Woody, Burns.... I'm fine with it. Could even try to Package Ortiz & Cordell plus lower guys. Those two were big factors in sending both Lucroy AND Jeffress. Cordell is super blocked. Ortiz carries the prospect weight and name.