Cool Hand Lucroy

A nice, pretty easy win at the end of the day. Gives you a shot at a winnable game here tomorrow afternoon. In other news, Minnesota has fired Ben Johnson, which....surprises me. I know the program has been in the desert, but that seems like a systemic issue rather than a coaching one. I'm not sure anyone can make the Gophers truly relevant right now, but we'll see. Iowa may open as well. Depending on hires, might get a little tougher for the Badgers recruiting the TC suburbs.

Yup, single-elimination basketball is a beast. This program knows what it's doing. It is incredibly consistent and always giving itself a chance in March. It's flexible and adaptable and has survived the NIL era MUCH better than the football side of the program. There is a pattern of teams not playing as well as they could in March, that post-COVID year excepted. A lot of that is just bad luck and bad timing. Still, the last two years have seen some hard fades down the stretch. JMU beats a lot of people, and that was an awful matchup, but I expected a better effort from a trendy upset pick. The Badgers were never really in the game. Would it be wrong to say that Gard's teams lack the toughness of Bo's? I don't mean that as a harsh critique, and I prefer the Gard teams aesthetically and acknowledge they're better built for the modern game. Toughness is also subjective. I am just wondering aloud. I hope it proves a ridiculous question in time.

I wasn't able to watch on Saturday (and I suppose I'm glad for that), so I can't really comment on the game itself. Sounds like a combination of a bad matchup, some bad decisions, and the Klesmit injury catching up to them. Big picture: I've always thought making the Sweet 16 would be the goal. That should pretty much always be the goal for the Badgers given the broader landscape. Regardless of the results this coming week, the Badgers should be a 3 or 4 seed, which will put them in home jerseys all weekend. Hard to complain too much about that. I know others have expected more, and I know the borderline top-10 ranking suggested a title contender. I've never really bought in on this team to that level. The offense is great, the defense has been better, but it's a streaky crew that struggles against really tough defensive teams and sometimes struggles on D and on the glass. Turnovers are also an issue, as we've seen. They should be sizeable favorites in round 1 (and another loss there would be a huge disappointment), but, as with most teams, everything else is matchup dependent. Of course, for me, I want to be clear that this team overachieved this year. As they often do. They surpassed expectations, and that should be worth something, even if they can't reach the second weekend. I'd say: if there's an L in game one of the NCAA tourney, that sours and probably overshadows an otherwise good year and maybe lends some credence to the "can they do it in March" conversation. If they win one and then lose in the round of 32, it's pretty much a satisfying year, as long as they don't lose to a Cinderella team or blow a game they should win, a la Notre Dame in Gard's first year. Anything past that is a big success. Just my rubric.

Yeah, Klesmit is really important to this team. I know three-point shooting is prone to random fluctuations, but 5/22 again tonight shows you what Kelsmit brings, even if it's just opening up a little space for others to get open looks. Good news, of course, is the team adjusted and ended up winning without TOO much stress in the final couple of minutes. This game felt like anything from a Minnesota +5 or +6 or Wisconsin +10 or +12 finish, so glad it came in on the good end of that. We were favorites. We should've won. A loss would've been disappointing. But it's a much better win than throttling Washington at home last week.

Good point about Crowl. I don't mind him in the pick-and-roll, but I don't trust him as a true 5-out guy. Just not strong enough against ball pressure. Having watched Minnesota a fair bit, they play hard. I know that seems like a backhanded compliment, but I don't mean it that way. For a mediocre team, they play with a lot of belief and energy, and that's a testament to Johnson. He's struggled with roster construction a little (I don't know what MN's NIL situation is, but I'd assume bad, so probably not his fault), but as far as being a motivator and in-game decision-maker, he seems pretty darn good. Three seed seems most likely for the Badgers. Hard to see them moving up or down too much. Just take care of the next two and that should lock it in.

Seeing a little more pessimism than I thought here. Honestly, my ultimate takeaway was: this team is really going to be tough to beat in March. Are there things to work on? Yes. They struggle a little against ball pressure and can make lazy passes from the wing to the top of the key. Turnovers are an issue. They have gotten a lot better defensively but are not the toughest UW team I've seen in my time, not by a fairly wide margin. In this game and the MD game (kind of carbon copies of each other), all that resulted in them playing okay but breaking down in the last minutes in a way that caused the score to get out of hand. Still... 1) They weren't going to win @MD or @MSU. Not generally, but especially not considering how those games played out. 2) They shot awful from 3, got outrebounded by quite a bit, took six fewer shots, and were on the road against a really good team, probably the team playing the best in the league right now. It's March, and Izzo is looking for a B1G title. And yet they were in this game. They had TWO chances to take the lead late after cutting it to one. Right in this game despite doing a lot of things wrong and getting some bad breaks and playing against a team with more toughness and defensive chops. We played in the 130s against a top-5 dEF team. And were dead there playing their preferred style. Obviously, it's an L. Boo L's. But I really can't expect much more. Weirdly, I think this week shows us something. Minnesota has been playing well. Penn State not so much, but they're not bad either. Let's continue to work on things, play well, and head into the B1G tourney looking like a real contender

Think I am guilty of underestimating MSU's toughness. Not sure how because that and the secondary break are basically their whole identity. But man a big win for them. Looking forward to Sunday.

Just agreeing with all the reactions to the Washington game. That was exactly what you hope for in that scenario. Good to get the bad taste out of your mouth too. MSU has a tough week. @Maryland tonight and then us Sunday. A bit of a hot take, but I think the "Crab 5" (great nickname, despite my dislike of MD) is the best team in the B1G, or at least the one with the best title odds. Hopefully it's a real tough one for both teams. I'll expect a fiery, competitive game in East Lansing. Feels like the Badgers have played wee there in recent times. Here's hoping!

Maybe I just don't understand analytics or aging curves well enough, but Canha had a league-average OPS+ last year. Professional hitter. I get he's 36 and can only play corners, but a lot of teams can do a lot worse than giving this guy 200 ABs. Seemed like a good fit in Milwaukee in 2023, so here's hoping for more league average production in a limited role.

I had the same thoughts at first re: Klesmit. I think you want Tonje there for sure. On the other hand, you know max is going to get a true one-on-one opportunity in that spot. No one's helping off Tonje or Blackwell. Maybe too cute to plan for that kind of shot, but Max did get a pretty decent look. Just left it short. It's just not fun to lose home games. And we lost this one ourselves. As you said, big credit to Oregon for their defensive plan in the second half, but way too many errors by the Badgers late.

Bummed to see this. I always liked Margot. Fits the Brewers quite well. Hope he plays well, Perkins gets back, and then we have another good problem on our hands with a crowded OF.

Yeah, they definitely looked cruise control during that stretch. Went up 66-57 and did not score the rest of regulation. Stopped being assertive offensively. Drained clock. Were very, very sloppy with the basketball late, and then proceeded to do the same in OT. Wake-up call kind of game, you hope. I never really thought this team was going to win the conference title (figuring on a loss in East Lansing, and that puts them too far back, realistically). Today really stings, but big picture, it's going to end up being a Q1 loss in all likelihood. Learn from it and move on, because your main goals are still all in front of you. Hopefully a get-right home game against Washington before the big test next Sunday @MSU. They'll bounce back.

Yes! Flowers is another underrated guy. Great hands. Incredible defender.

I totally agree with you all on Bennett-ball. There was a completely ruthless beauty to that system. Watching Mike Kelley just completely shut down opposing guards was incredible. And that system was perfectly designed for where the sport was in that era--Wisconsin was never going to get the top athletes or the most big-time recruits, so you won on toughness and improvement. Gard took some lumps transitioning out of that, but still managed to make the tournament in four of the six years post-Bo players (counting from after Koenig's departure, and it would have been 5 tourneys in 7 years had they held one in 2020). One thing I think gets overlooked is that, yeah, the Badgers play faster, but they're still only 187 in KenPom tempo. That's closer to the bottom of the country than the top. It does FEEL like that's changed some in more recent games, but I love that they can slow it down a bit if they need to. Tonje in particular has gotten so so good and not forcing things that aren't there. Sure, he'll put up a less-than-ideal contested step-back when he's on a heater (which is a bad shot for a lot of guys, but not nearly as much for him), but the vast majority of the time he's completely in control. He is not a volume scorer at all and seems locked in and bought in. I don't know if they'll be able to hang any banners, and the tournament can be terrifyingly random, but the program has largely managed to stay relevant during a time of massive change in the sport. More than can be said for many others.

I'm starting to hear the national folks giving lots more love to the Badgers (Field of 68 even directly said they hadn't talked enough about how good they are), so I think a lot of people are starting to realize how good this team is. In December/January, I wasn't sure how good the team WAS, but I could see how good they might be. They've really come into their own over the last few weeks. It's hard to explain how good these guards are. Blackwell, Tonje, and Klesmit are not national names, but that is a true, three-headed, backcourt monster. And then you can bring in McGee off the bench, who is just the perfect role-player, someone who can score if you need him to, but is fully capable of putting in dirty work. Up front, Crowl has shot it this year, and that is just a killer from an eFG% perspective. Dude is creeping up on 40% from three. Makes it a true pick your poison kind of offense. And if you get Crowl in foul trouble, Winter can do a lot of those same things. And then throw in Gilmore, who is a classic dirty work guy that's gotten more confident offensively, plus the athleticism and shooting you can get from Amos and Janicki. That's 9 guys who all fit together really, really well. I don't think there's a star in the bunch (I could see Tonje or Blackwell making NBA rosters, though), but the cohesion and ability to get points in myriad ways make them a nightmare to defend. You can't isolate Johnny Davis or Storr (like JMU did last year in the tourney). It's wild. Of course, three-point shooting is always fickle, but at least there are a lot of options, and it's not like the team can't get to the line or the rim (or backcut you to death) if the shots aren't falling. They're a matchup nightmare for most teams.

Ho-hum. Another blowout win against a good team. I was a little worried about this one because Illinois is weird. But, man, did UW run away with things late. Illini couldn't keep up.

Agreed. Shouldn't have left them off. The SEC is terrifying, and there about four other teams there you could really see going on a run. I mean, I have seen Miss St look incredible at times, and bracket matrix has them as a 7.

Yes, I think there's an extra reward to being a top-3 seed too, in that it looks to me like the bottom of the bracket is going to be bad, but the 11-13 lines might be loaded. Bubble looks stronger to me when a team like UCONN or Creighton might be in line for, like 10 seeds, and SEC schools like Vandy might end up on the 12 line. My big-picture bracketing thought is that this year's field feels simultaneously wide-open and very chalky. Would I be surprised if a bunch of 10, 11, 12 seeds won in the first round? Not a bit. But I also think Auburn, Alabama, and Florida (plus maybe Houston just because of their toughness and Duke because of Flagg) are really, really going to be hard to beat.

I've been really impressed with the Four Nations. Kind of a model for All-Start breaks right now. Big chunk of time off, meaningful competition. Hockey has some things that set it up well for that kind of thing (it's probably not repeatable in baseball, but removing the ASB and creating an in-season, cup-style competition is doable), but I feel like other sports could learn something.

This era can't really last. Coaches hate it. The NCAA doesn't want it. The big-time programs can't enjoy having to re-recruit every year, often against schools who would never touch their status under other circumstances. Plus, you can kind of feel the media starting to turn. Used to be, "pay these guys!" was a click machine. Now, it's "this is out of control." Maybe we get a true ONE-time transfer waiver. A cap of some sort. NIL as a multi-year contract. Who knows? But I doubt we're seeing this level of player freedom in 3 years. The Badgers have followed a good blueprint, I think. Be active in the portal, but make sure to keep identifying players with a high probability of sticking around. Having Klesmit and McGee (not to mention Crowl and Gilmore and even Blackwell) really helps when you bring in Tonje.

Thanks. This is good! They gave Loyer some good looks I'd like back, but this takes some steam out of any criticism I have for sure.

So many things to say. First, the most obvious. Ridiculous call on McGee. Barely a common foul, let alone and F2. Okay. Second, my favorite thing about this game was how Tonje knew when to be assertive and when to throttle back. Just an awesome team effort. Every guy contributing on every level. I am kicking myself for not posting ahead of tip, but I really thought this was a favorable matchup because, as good as Brayden Smith is (he is Klesmit if Klesmit were a better ball handler and passer), our guards are just way more athletic than he and Loyer. Just didn't think they'd be capable of stopping us, and they certainly weren't in the second half. Honestly, I like our roster better than Purdue's. We earned that one. Finally, we have a signature win. Not many teams are going to be able post something as strong as a W at Purdue. Big picture, two things: 1) I thought Gard's lineup management was awesome. Tonje got some good rest and was able to key big possessions late. This really wasn't a Crowl kind of game, so going with the smaller lineup more often worked (I know Crowl had foul trouble, but Gard felt no pressure to force it and managed the guys really well without McGee. 2) We can win so many ways, that it's going to be difficult to matchup with us in the NCAA tourney. It is a good March roster. Let's hope it delivers. One issue: @Jim French Stepstoolmentioned a couple of defensive breakdowns against Iowa. Same thing happened here. We give up open 3s at bad times. Rotation around the perimeter needs to be a bit better. Minor gripe. Big big win!

Style aside, this has the feel of a vintage Badger team. Obviously, they play faster and are more athletic, but the toughness that was missing a little bit these last few years (Chuckie aside) is on full display in these road games. The Pitt win too. Just a team that keeps coming at you, and Blackwell and Tonje are absolute gamers. Good time for a mini-bye. If they can get one of the big road games (and take care of business the rest of the way), you'll feel awfully good about their chances.

I'm honestly surprised Woodson is still employed. Everyone seems to know the writing is on the wall. Coaching is a tough gig, so not piling on here, but even he looked pretty disinterested after the 26-4 start. Not blaming the guy, either, because IU's history with coaches is so bad, but that just seems like a situation where everyone would want a fresh start as soon as possible. Maybe the brass are hoping he quits or something. Just seems like a lot of playing out the string happening there. Villanova is going to open sooner than later too, I'd think. They've stopped the leaks a little but are looking way outside the NCAAT picture. Hard to see Neptune getting another year. I wonder if maybe teams are keeping coaches around to have the best shot at the hot name in March? Maybe they're worried an interim would do an awesome job and put them in a tough position? Would OSU rather have Dusty May than Diebler? I don't know, just tossing things out there. I hope Gard sticks around a while for a lot of reasons, but one of them is that I just want no part of having to wade through the coaching market in what seems like a never-ending search for a "better" guy. Stable coaching staff seems like it helps in an era of maximum player freedom.

Good points all. Having three 2/3 types on the floor and no real 1 makes things different. Another chance at a gettable road W on Saturday, so hope Iowa's usual defense shows up.