Cool Hand Lucroy

One of the weird things about baseball is that it strides the "totally random" and "analytically logical" lines so nicely, that we're always going tempted to graft huge narratives onto the playoffs. We need cogency and answers, but the sample size really can't provide it, so it's an awkward fit. The Brewers haven't played very well tonight. Some of it is randomness. Some of it is maybe nerves. Some of it is just lapses of concentration and focus. We're not "cursed." The trajectory of the moment will not be the trajectory of forever. This team doesn't quit, and it won't. I don't know if they'll win, but I'd bet on them not going out quietly in this series.

I think pulling Peralta was fine. You need a shut down inning, Freddy was shaky. Payamps just didn't have hit. He was getting torched. Chuorio makes a great catch, then makes a bad read. Then, Hoskins makes a great play, but Payamps is late covering. Payamps needs to be better.

Mets still have to get 12 leverage outs with a gassed pitching staff (and Severino just sat for like 30 minutes). I don't know if we win today, and, yeah, a three-game series seems short. But you still have to win two games. So far, the Mets have won .5.

Nice, FAST inning there. Let's go. Time for a long ball.

As long as they go loud from innings 7-8 (and don't need the 9th), I'll take it. Playoff baseball is a unique experience. I hate every second of it but don't want to live without it.

I mean, if your game plan is to be aggressive against Severino (which it obviously has been), you HAVE to be running on the first pitch there. Maybe he was? I couldn't tell. But that's a situation where it doesn't make sense not to go.

Nothing in sports feels like October baseball. We get to be a part of it (again). Going to embrace the randomness, the terror, and the joy today. It will be a peak emotional experience, and that's worth cherishing, whatever the outcome.

Alright, Mets it is! We all know the playoffs involve randomness and a lot of it. What I will say is that circumstances have given this team a better than average playoff opportunity. Mets will be on adrenaline. Those kinds of teams are dangerous. Let's match their intensity and get to a division series. 13 wins to go.

I mean, this is why today is so interesting. It's just obvious that, if it were possible and socially acceptable to agree to just split the DH, both teams would have done so. Because once you start playing, do you really trust your division rival to not totally screw you over should they win game 1? Weird things happen when you actually have to play the games. And once you win that first one, you just relax and play loose and "it's baseball" so no pressure anything can happen. Always funny when you see a prisoner's dilemma playing out in front of you in real time.

Hindsight alert (although I did mention this prior to first pitch yesterday). This scenario is also why I'm not sure about holding Sale. Granted, now you have him for this do-or-die game. BUT yesterday you had the Royals with little to play for in a win-and-in situation. And if you throw him yesterday, you've still got him lined up for a couple of high-leverage innings in Game 3 or possibly Game 2 if you really need him. Now, he's just totally burned for that WC round and pitching in a massive pressure game. I guess you could throw him for an inning on Wednesday if it gets that far, but, if Sale wins Sunday, you also save ALL your bullpen guys because you're just in. EDIT: And now I see the note about back spasms. Yeesh. As someone said, maybe that's why they weren't throwing him out there Sunday.

Yeah, count me in really hoping the Braves win for a bunch of reasons. I'm not all that scared of facing Gallen, Kelly, and Pfaadt, but the Mets rotation is probably the same as that lineup, plus the bullpen fatigue, plus the offense, though hot, isn't quite as scary as the Dbacks. No easy matchups either way, but I feel more optimistic than last year.

We may just get the Dbacks after that one. Or Sale may just have to throw 9 innings. Would you rather throw tired good pitchers? Or fresh mediocre ones? The Mets will be doing the latter for sure. If we get the Mets, we'll get Severino, Manaea, Quintana probably. The Dbacks will throw who knows followed by Gallen and Kelly. At this point, I'm primed and ready for October baseball!

This has been an absolute blast. Both teams just tossing everyone they can. At this point, I'd prefer to get one of these teams just because you have to figure they'll be totally spent, but if you believe in momentum, maybe not.

Got it. Yeah, that minimizes the downside risk of the Mets losing both games for sure.

No, the Braves are totally ruled out. If they get swept, they're out. If they sweep, we play the Dbacks. In case of a split, we play the Mets.

This is the most interesting scenario AND (probably) the one most likely to benefit the Brewers. I could see the case for hoping to lock in a matchup with the Mets after today, but you have to take the marginal gain of forcing your opponent to play 18 innings of at least semi-meaningful baseball over the chance that one team loses two legs of the DH. That's always the less likely outcome, and you would think it would be especially so in this case. The other bit of news here is that it's impossible for us to face the Braves. Anyone worried about their pitching (they could still throw Fried and Lopez in games 2 and 3, even if they'd have to do a bullpen game or something in Game 1) will take some solace in that. EDIT: Absent straight collusion, of course, which is probably the game theory optimal play in this scenario. I'm not arguing for collusion. Just saying it's clearly the best possible outcome for both teams, a split where you don't have to work hard.

Crazy things happen in the desert, but I don't see a lot of incentive for the Brewers to play to win this one right now. Even if the Braves come back and clinch their spot, that's not the end of the world for the Brewers. If we come back and win this one, OTOH, we're getting the Braves or Dbacks no matter what. Would really like the Royals to hang on.

Yeah, you could definitely convince me of that. If you prefer the DBacks to the Braves, it may not be worth hoping the double-header materializes with stakes for both teams because that risks us getting ATL and their pitching staff, should they decide to sit Sale. Honestly....I think it's very risky for ATL to be throwing Morton today. If you lose, you open the door to having to use him Monday, and then he's toast for the whole WC series. Plus, you may have to play two games that matter if you drop game 1 of that double-header. I think I'd probably still do it the way they're doing it, but, man, that's a move that definitely screams of newer age thinking (namely, that you'd take a higher probability of not making the playoffs over starting your best pitcher on the final day of the season to clinch your spot). Fascinating game theory stuff going on in the NL today.

There are eight possible combinations of results today. Four are probably bad for us. 1) AZ L, ATL W, NYM W (Under this scenario, AZ is eliminated). 2) AZ W, ATL W, NYM L (Under this scenario, the Mets need to sweep a DH to qualify, and we'd be guaranteed to face either the Braves or the DBacks). 3) AZ L, ATL, L, NYM W (the Mets and Braves both clinch). 4) AZ W, ATL L, NYM L (Braves need one win in the DH. Mets need two. Both teams have to go all-out, but we get the DBacks no matter what--in other words, high-drama, but it doesn't help the Brewers ). Two are probably less bad but still not great: 5) AZ W, ATL W, NYM W (the Braves clinch, and the Mets need one win in the DHer--we would probably hope the Braves win game 1 and the Mets win game 2, giving us the Mets). 6) AZ L, ATL L, NYM L (Braves clinch, Mets need one win, functionally identical to scenario 4). The worry here is that if the Mets win game 1, they maybe don't play game 2, and we get the Braves who wouldn't have had to expend much energy. Two are good: 7) AZ L, ATL W, NYM L (Braves clinch, go two games up on the Mets, Mets have to win one game of the DHer to qualify. Under this scenario, we get the Braves if the Mets sweep, but that would seem very unlikely given that they might scrap game 2 if the Mets win the first one. Doubt they'd go all out to avoid the Padres). 8) AZ W, ATL L, NYM W (Three-way tie going into Monday. Both games are necessary. We get the Mets in the case of a split, which be the most likely outcome, and at least one of the games would have to be real). I would be pretty surprised if we were to play all out today, so we're probably AZ and Royals fans. But, if we win, we're probably Braves and Padres fans. The biggest shortcut for me: I'd like the Mets and DBacks to match results.

The current situation: Looks like the Mets and DBacks will trail the Braves by one game heading into the final day of the regular season. DBacks are low-team out on tiebreakers in any scenario. My thought is that I want either the Mets or Braves, hoping they have to play two competitive games Monday. So, the scenario we DON'T want is for the DBacks to lose and the Mets and Braves to win. If that happens, they don't need to play on Monday. Any other result means they have to play at least one meaningful game on Monday. The other scenario we don't want is for the DBacks and Braves to both win and the Mets to lose. That means the Mets will have to sweep a DHer to make the playoffs, in which case we'd get the Braves because that would give the Mets the 5 seed. Or, they'd fail to sweep, and we'd get the DBacks. In other words, root for the Royals tomorrow to ensure meaningful games Monday. Beyond that, two ways to look at it: 1) We want a three-way tie entering Monday. Three teams, two spots. This way, the Mets and Braves both HAVE to win at least one win game to both make it. A split gets them both in. Two losses, and you're out. You would think, under this scenario, Game 1 is full go for both teams. Game 2 is rest for one and full go for the other. We'd get the Mets in a split scenario, so we'd ideally want Atlanta to win game 1 and force the Mets to at least try to win the second. The risk here is either a) one team actually loses both games and we get the DBacks or b) both teams do some soft (or more overt) collusion to just get a split while maximizing rest. 2) We want the Braves to have clinched and the Mets to be even with the DBacks. This way, ATL would be resting, and the Mets would have to go all out to win at least one. Here, you probably don't get two super competitive games, but you at least guarantee that the Brewers most likely opponent has to play hard for nine innings. The downside is that, with the DH not meaning anything for the Braves, the stress on the Mets gets reduced. Or, they blow it, and we end up with the DBacks. There are other permutations, but those are the best two for the Brewers. I think, right now, I'd lean toward scenario one. I'd like to enter Monday with the Mets only needing to win one game, but having to really go for it.

Nicely done, Ortiz. Still have no idea what combination of results I'm rooting for, in the Braves and DBacks games, but I am always up for some Brewers runs.

For sure. Just pointing out what would be a fascinating scenario. We probably are rooting for the DBacks. Have them pull away, keep the Mets and Braves fighting for just one spot.

Braves have won. Padres lead the DBacks 4-1 in the first. If all results hold, they'll be in a three-way tie for two NL wild card sports. It's baseball. But with the Mets-Braves double-header on Monday, this is really shaping up to be an opportunity for the Crew. All three potential opponents are going to have to play all out with minimal rest. One weird scenario: Imagine the three-way tie holds over the next two days. We enter Monday in a three-way tie. I BELIEVE the Mets and Braves would both qualify in the event they split their double-header. The Braves would qualify by having the best record against the other two teams, and the Mets would then qualify by virtue of owning the season series against the DBacks. So...you'd have a scenario where a split would benefit both teams. They'd both qualify for the postseason. Were one side to sweep, the other side would be eliminated. Things would get very "match-fixy" as the soccer folks say. That would be fascinating. You'd essentially be playing to win game 1, and then not caring at all about game 2. Or you could approach with more sinister intentions, trying to get as much rest as possible.

Hoping Sal will be alright, but, as someone else said, if you're going to lose a main guy, he's one that's not so difficult to replace. Mitchell is fine in right and has hit it better. He'd probably be getting most of the innings anyway, especially as a left-handed hitter. Essentially, you can make the the case Mitchell is just Frelick + about .200 OPS points. I guess the relevant question is how many outfielders you put on the postseason roster. 4? 5? And do you go with Collins? Or Collins and someone else? Hopefully, Sal is fine and can make these kinds of questions moot. Also, I would love to see a footrace between Sanchez and Hoskins. After the season. When there are fewer consequences resulting from any potential injury.

FWIW, I didn't think Frelick really had a shot to catch that. Not going to criticize the dude for the hustle. That's his makeup. It's probably why he's a big-leaguer. Just really too bad he couldn't manage to turn down the intensity a tiny, tiny bit.