Every decision starts with 1A and 1B, Counsell and Burnes. I think everything you do depends on what happens with those two, and I do think they're largely independent of each other. I don't think Counsell staying means Burnes is necessarily more likely to, FWIW.
I would definitely trade Burnes. I just can't see an argument for keeping him, given a) arb cost, b) contract expiring, c) no chance to re-sign, and d) massive need for immediate 2024 offensive production. I doubt Burnes is worth a huge haul, but he should net you something like a MLB-ready, league-average bat with a couple years of team control, maybe something more. Of course, this team got Contreras for basically Esteury Ruiz, so maybe there's some magic out there too.
The starting pitching is going to be a massive question mark. How serious is Woody's injury? Is Ashby ready, or even healthy? Can Houser continue to be a consistent depth option toward the back of the rotation? Do we get first half Freddy or second half Freddy? Is 10 million worth it for Miley? Can we get anything at all from Misiorowski, Rodriquez, or Gasser?
I have no idea on those questions. You're basically going into the offseason knowing 2 of your starting pitchers. That's....interesting.
While I see the argument for trading Devin (and wouldn't be opposed to it on principle), it's going to have to be a huge haul. When baseball seasons go bad, a shaky bullpen is usually a big part of the cause. With all the question marks all over the other parts of the roster, I'd bet on Peguero, Payamps, and Williams being good enough to hold most late-inning leads. Williams is the safest bet of those three, with the longest track record. With a young team, I want no part of a bunch of deflating, late-lead losses.
Offensively, Adames is a 3-win player who is probably more valuable to you than anyone else. Hope for a bounce back year, and accept your best case might be a QO and subsequent draft pick compensation.
I'd bring Santana back if the price is right. Canha, no. Too expensive, not enough of a difference maker anyway. I'm not into the Donaldson show. Dude looks pretty washed to me, despite hitting a few dingers that stood out because nobody else was doing it. I'm all in on Black starting with the big club. Let's see what he's got.
What do we do with all our outfielders? Yelich is going to get starts in left, but probably not as many. Mitchell, Frelick, Weimer, Taylor, even Perkins has some value. Chourio is coming. That's 7 guys for 4 or 5 roster spots. Probably can keep Weimer and Chuorio at AAA early, but for how long?
You probably need a backup catcher unless you're ready to go with Quero.
Basically, I think there are a lot of good ways to build on this roster, and I'm looking forward to the offseason. It'll be fun to see this take shape. The pieces are there.