KeithStone53151

The White Sox(similar to the Rays) had a lot more time to hold out for the right deal. The Marlins have 2 years of team control on Realmuto, and his value drops a ton at the deadline when it's 1 and 1/3 years of production. Also Quintana at the time had quite a bit more value than Realmuto. 3.5 years of control vs 2. That 2 year point is really a sweet spot for team planning, less than that doesn't seem like a ton of team control and feels a bit like a rental.

I guess that depends how high you're subjectively valuing Hiura. Top 10 prospect like Tucker, Whitley, Robles? Probably not. But, you never know. It only takes one team to overpay which is why I think the Quintana discussion is relevant here. Jimenez was a top 5 prospect at the time. No one gave the White Sox what they wanted for Quintana pre-2017, but the Cubs caved later. So if that could happen with Quintana, why couldn't it happen with Realmuto? Prospect more in the 25-35 range is still a good likelihood IMO or a young emerging MLB player. Hiura's value is still kind of not something universally agreed upon. Some rankings may have him in their top 10, others may have him around the #30 spot that he currently occupies for MLB Pipeline. I'll give you that's fair. I just highly doubt it happens at this point. The Marlins seem to clearly know they have to trade him now to get max value. The risk of keeping him is too great. If he opens the season with a low 700s OPS or worse, or he gets hurt...they might be looking at a deal headlined by a fringe top 100 caliber prospect at the deadline. I have to imagine the offers are better than that right now. And with Hiura, I don't think he's in that Jimenez/Tucker tier...but he's just a shade below it in the 8-20 overall range. If you look at prospect lists and go through the prospects in the 18-35 range, Hiura clearly outclasses most of them. Hiura has Daniel Murphy in his prime written all over him.

There's still a lot of hope for the prospects we sent over, but yes the Quintana package looks better. That's primarily because the Cubs overpaid, classic all-in Theo. Trading Jimenez was insanity, and I was so glad they did it at the time. It was so obvious this guy was going to be a star. 300 avg and 30 hr type guy consistently. So, arguing that their values were similar at the time because the Cubs wildly overpaid is not fair. We also did get a good deal on Yelich, it's obvious at this point. I guess you could argue their market values were similar, but the actual values they were going to provide is not close...Yelich was always going to be more valuable. Look at all the factors in play, and it's pretty obvious.

Use one stat to try to drive your point home, classic. Yelich still had massive upside, as has been made obvious this year...and 5 years of team control at age 26. Quintana was an established mid-rotation guy with declining peripherals and a lot of miles on his arm, and was 28 with 3.5 years of team control. He was also having a down year at the time of trade. Yelich at the time was far more valuable, and as of now is one of the best values in baseball. We aren't trading for what a guy has done, we are trading for what we project he will do. And regardless of value, my comment wasn't about our willingness to trade Hiura. My comment was that no team has deemed their top prospects worth trading for Realmuto. The Marlins have asked about all those guys and all teams have reportedly told them to pound sand. The way the catching market is progressing and with Realmuto's 2nd half and loss of 1 year of team control...offers aren't going to increase.

If a team was willing to trade a prospect of Hiura's caliber, it would have happened by now. Countless teams have reportedly balked at the asking price of an Acuna, Robles, Bellinger, Tucker, Hiura, etc. At this point, in this market, a team isn't going to all of a sudden make someone like that available. You mean like Brinson? Who wasn't available in the Quintana talks but then was moved for Yelich. LOLOLOLOL...did you really just compare Quintana to Yelich? Hiura isn't available for Realmuto, but if the Angels are looking to move Mike Trout...yes Hiura is available.

If a team was willing to trade a prospect of Hiura's caliber, it would have happened by now. Countless teams have reportedly balked at the asking price of an Acuna, Robles, Bellinger, Tucker, Hiura, etc. At this point, in this market, a team isn't going to all of a sudden make someone like that available.

One additional scenario besides the Vikings losing 2 is the Seahawks losing all 3. Far less likely than the Vikings losing 2...especially considering their schedule(49ers, KC, Cards), but worth noting considering you laid out everything else. I was thinking the same though, I think winning all 3 gives us a decent shot at playoffs. And this Bears game will be by far the toughest of the 3. Hopefully Miami keeps riding that high from beating the Patriots.

Yes MrAllen is correct, he came back 10 minutes later and corrected this tweet...saying multipel times that Shaw would be moving back to 3b.

Daniel murphy definitely can play 1b, heck he probably fits better there than 2b. That's part of why i like murphy, he's great insurance for aguilar and his virtually certain regression

There's an athletic article with more rumors on murphy. Anyone with a subscription mind providing a couple bullet points for cheap people like me that won't pay for it?

Ray actually made significant strides with his hit tool this year. He made mechanical adjustments allowing him to get to the inside pitch more consistently. It showed in his HR total. I think his contact rate is highly likely to improve when he nails down his mechanics and is simply thinking about results and not thinking about mechanics at the plate. I have to imagine that will be this year...it's a bit make or break for him.

I feel like many of you are failing to consider Kluber's age or contract with comments. He's owed $52M over the next 3 years and turns 33 this year. Would the Brewers sign Kluber for $52M over 3 years? Absolutely. Should we give up top prospects for the right to pay age 33-35 of Kluber $52M? That's a significantly different question. I'd recommend noting his age and contract when considering what you might offer or not offer.

Couldn't agree more. Was it 2 years ago that payroll was like $60 million? We definitely banked a ton of money that year. Also that new tv deal is going to help a lot, with the attendance we get...we could be a fringe middle of the pack payroll team.

Not specific to Kluber, but Haudricourt is in super salty mode on twitter right now responding to fans that want to see the Brewers add payroll. I understand his frustration and generally agree with him, but it's so much fun to see. Tying it back to the thread, the very beginning of his twitter rampage started with a response to a guy upset that we aren't making more of a push for Kluber.

That's a weird trade. From a salary standpoint, the Brewers pieces are owed a combined $13.5M with arbitration estimates. Cleveland's players are owed $31.5M. Kluber has options that will certainly be picked up, while Kipnis has a $2.5M buyout on his option that will certainly be declined. Knebel and Santana are under team control through 2021, while Thames has an affordable option with a $1M buyout. I feel like the Brewers need salary relief, we are also giving up quite a bit of talent to take on a bad contract in Kipnis. From a fit standpoint, we'd basically be a 1 stop shop for the Indians needs...for the most part. We'd also have a temporary 2b that we could shift to a LH 4th OF role when Hiura comes up. We would in this case, have to add relief help...but we keep our pitching talent intact.

Money would hardly seem as a problem. They are loaded with expendable guys they could trade to make space. Anderson and Thames being the main guys. It's an obstacle, but you're right probably not a huge problem. Both guys have more value than their contracts. I know many are down on Thames, but he's put up good numbers when healthy and getting consistent at bats. He's better than quite a few DH's in the AL and could even be a candidate for a tanking team to give consistent AB and flip at the deadline...as he has the cheap option year.

This is about where I'm at with the 2 pitchers. Burnes is a hard no in almost all cases. Trout, Betts, Degrom, etc...I'd consider it, but Kluber isn't in that category and none of those targets are realistic right now. Burnes and Hiura are going to be special players, they are in a tier well above any prospects or the other 2 SP. Peralta and Woodruff are more expendable in the right deal. Someone of Kluber's caliber might be the right deal, we'll see if it works out.

Wait....what??? I would worry about Kareem Hunt before anything that happens on the field. Players choose to get paid to play a violent sport. Women don't choose to get smashed in the face. You're confusing Hunt and Ray Rice I think. I see your point, I may have exaggerated a bit because your point is good. It's amazing how dismissive people tend to be of dirty hits in the NFL...as if a simple fine is acceptable for Barr intentionally injuring Rodgers...or Trevethan destroying a wrapped up Davante Adams, giving him a concussion. There are enough good athletes that we don't need guys like that in this game. A $10k fine is meaningless and isn't going to change their behavior.

Honestly, this adjustment is no different than the adjustment guys have to make when they deal with a runner going out of bounds. Heck even if it's a RB or WR and you crush them, it's going to be 15 yards if they are 1 step out of bounds. Defenders should be smart enough to use their head and understand the situation a bit better. And I wholeheartedly disagree with his intentions once he noticed the slide. I firmly believe he tried to make the hit even more punishing once he realized it.

Hard to argue with any of that. Great points. A number of friends that are fans of the queens or bears blame Rodgers broken collarbone for the crackdown on roughing the passer calls and the mild rule changes...yet it seems we have been generally screwed over on the majority of these types of calls this year. I personally am a bit more annoyed at what kind of (expletive) would cheap shot a sliding qb like that...regardless of whether it is technically legal or not. The ESPN segment "Jacked up" was pulled off the air for a reason, that isn't how football is played anymore. If I had my way, I'd try filtering thugs like that Falcons player(and the guy who celebrated his dirty hit) out of the game before I'd worry about incidents like the Kareem Hunt.

Regarding the Rodgers slide play, that guy had obviously started diving at Rodgers...but I also don't think he made an effort to minimize the impact to Rodgers and he should have. In fact, I think he adjusted to hit him harder after the slide motion had started. He had enough time to bring his hands out or adjust his body even slightly to try and minimize the contact. Also defensive players are smart enough to have an idea of when a QB is likely to slide. ALSO, his teammate coming over to congratulate him for his big hit on a sliding QB. I can understand it was probably in a gray area of whether it was a foul...but that's some classless football right there. I'm glad the offensive line jumped in to defend him the way they did.

I'd be open to it pending cost. I don't think I'd want to give up much to get him though. He's definitely a good fit at least initially, though again I'm of the belief that Hiura is very likely not only to be a Brewers by May/June...but to be hitting somewhere in the top 5 of the batting order consistently by August. And that won't be because our offense is struggling, it will be because he's straight mashing.

Rumors of Nimmo/Conforto/Rosario somewhat refute that. Also the fact that so many teams have reportedly balked at asking for a prospect of that caliber...refutes that as well. Your analysis are always interesting, but a team has to actually be willing to give up the value. Many teams have moved on to some degree, and other options exist. I highly doubt the Marlins get what you calculate as equal value on this trade. I could be wrong, but if a team was willing to give up a Tucker or Verdugo or Hiura or Acuna or Robles or other top prospect for Realmuto...it would have happened already. The Marlins continue to lose leverage as other catchers are made available, and as teams look at other options to fill their needs. I'm personally expecting the Marlins to simply not trade him at all and miss out on a ton of value.

We need to think of Braun as a primary starter because he is one and he swung the bat better than everyone last year except Yelich. Statcast, BABIP, eye test, etc etc all confirms this when applied in the right context. He hit 281/353/879 in the 2nd half (132 wrc+ with 9% BB rate and 16K rate) and, while he didn't hit for power in the playoffs, he was the most consistent hitter regarding making good contact (you can add 2 hits to his playoff total that Yelich took away from him - not the defense). Yes, he's going to miss games. But when he's healthy he's still hitting the ball hard and having good ABs. And while he's lost a step in the OF and on the bases he's nowhere near a liability (still an above average defender according to DRS). He has 2yrs left and as long as he's healthy he'll be the primary LF - people need to deal with this reality, which includes him still being productive. You're correct on Santana being the 4th OF and clearly he has the best bat of any bench player. People are hung up on Taylor having more versatility than Santana, which he does, therefore someone like Taylor is a better fit but that's the wrong logic being applied given our current makeup. If Santana is filling in for Yelich then he's in RF. If Santana is filling in for Cain then he's in RF with Yelich moving to CF. If Santana is filling in for Braun then he's in RF with Yelich in LF (his original position). If there's an injury to an OF then the defense is now as I just described depending on who's injured then Perez bumps up to the 4th OF spot. Broxton is also still on this team and both of these guys are significantly better backups than Taylor. I think Taylor was added to the 40 as depth/insurance in case either, or both, of Santana/Broxton are traded. But a 4th OF would then be acquired, most likely a vet like a Granderson type. I generally agree with just about all of this, but no way are both Broxton and Santana on the opening day roster. And both are out of options. We'll certainly look to trade one of these guys along with probably Thames(outside chance of Aguilar as well), but I think 2 of those 3 are gone by opening day. We simply can't carry more than 1 of the 3 considering we'll have a 13 man pitching staff most likely. I guess it's possible we can't find a taker and value the depth in ST in the event of injury more than whatever offers we get...and then DFA if we don't have an injury. Taylor is a good add to the 40 for the inevitable parting of some of the pieces listed above, but there's a fair chance Taylor wouldn't even be the first call if we have an OF injury in May. They might go with Ray, or an infielder and have Perez take the 4th OF role.

I don't dismiss incremental moves but the counterpoint could be the Cubs and Astros which were essentially 10-15 guys hitting the majors in a 2 year window + free agents/name vets traded for. Sure, one always would forget to mention someone like Strop or arguably Arrieta was a "younger" player traded for that didn't exactly fit the window given service time, but those were on a smaller deal. If I'm trading my best player, Davies better be a very, very minor detail in the trade...not just a package of solid MLB players. I wouldn't call him a minor piece in my scenarios, but I'll completely agree he's not even close to a centerpiece. Something like Woodruff + Davies + Nottingham is a pretty good package of players...that's the max deal I'd be ok with. I would try to make it Ray + Davies + pieces, but I suspect they'll want one of Peralta/Woodruff. Davies isn't a bad 2nd piece as long as 3 substantial players are going back and he isn't the centerpiece. My primary argument is the "they wouldn't even want him" which is just a silly argument. It's not like they are loaded with mid-back end type starters...or have a logjam of prospects they'd like to fling into the rotation. The Marlins are weak in MLB caliber SP talent and minor league SP talent.