KeithStone53151

I don't believe this to be correct. I think he was always expected to need some work at the milb level. That said, i don't think anyone anticipated such high k numbers... and most expected him to be further along by now than he is.

I think most of us would rather trade back end starters in the current rotation or lesser prospects for MB in lieu of Ray, heck I would. The Giants are going to want some type of impact back for him or they'd be better of taking their chances at the deadline. Any buying team loses the pick at that point, but this is a unique situation where MB is so well known for his playoff pedigree that a team could really buy into that at the deadline. Literally every contender in baseball could use MB if he's known to be throwing well and healthy.

I'll also add, you don't simply trade Erceg because he's blocked. Trading him away means one less chip you have to trade later on...so you don't want to simply throw him in to a trade because he's blocked anyways. Look how blocked Broxton was, and what we just got for him.

A player being blocked doesn't impact their value, but it generally makes them more likely to be traded or easier to part with. That's the vibe I got from comments related to players being blocked the last 2 pages. Nothing directly speaking to that, but that was kinda the jist. MadBum being average likely means no QO. If he posts an ERA in the low-4s or worse or doesn't end the season healthy...we can't do it. I also don't think the comparison to Miley is very relevant. If Miley was getting offers for 3 years, he wouldn't be a consideration and we'd probably look elsewhere or roll with in-house options...he also probably would have signed by now before teams wised up.

I wouldn't love the idea of giving up Ray for Bumgarner, but I could get on board with it if there wasn't too much else. I generally agree with consensus that Ray probably will be used in a trade of some kind, the goal will be to maximize value/return though. If Stearns decides this is the best value we'll get from him...so be it.

Lagares has played about 200 games the last 3 seasons due to injury, but you're right DRS is a cumulation stat. I don't know what UZR stands for but I think it generally relates to range. Part of the reason I also don't buy into Lagares as an elite range guy is he doesn't steal bases. His UZR is in Billy Hamilton territory in 2017 and basically mediocre every other year the last 4 years. I know an awful lot more than speed goes into stealing, but if he was truly approaching Billy Hamilton's range...he'd be able to steal at least some bases on speed alone, even if his instincts/reads were well below average on the bases. Or at the very least, he'd TRY to steal more bases and simply fail often and get thrown out. I don't know any elite speed guys or borderline elite speed guys that simply don't steal because their instincts are THAT bad.

I don't think it's up for debate that the antics of Kirby Puckett and others mentioned are worse, but the cheating calls into question their achievements on the field. I personally think those issues are not the same and should not be lumped together. Being Kirby Puckett or Ray Rice or Pete Rose doesn't impact your abilities to play the game. Steroids/HGH do. They should also be approached logically and not emotionally. An argument such as "You won't let Bonds in the Hall of Fame, but you let in Kirby Puckett the wife beater?", simply is not a logical argument...it's an emotional argument at best.

This also looks like an example of how the eye test matters and defensive metrics aren't that useful. Lagares was an average or slightly above average defender according to those metrics in 2015 and 2016, all of a sudden in 2017 he had some crazy defensive year making him look elite. I'll also add he played 94 games in 2017 and 143 and 79 the other 2 years. 2015 was his worst defensive year and he played the 143. Based on the numbers you listed above, Lagares is a better defender than Cain. More likely than that...these metrics are significantly flawed and not an accurate representation of the player.

I remember in many trade discussions Mets fans seeming to think Lagares was this player that had a ton of value. I don't understand this at all. The guy has produced nothing of value, ever. I believe I've heard he's a very good defender, but not quite to the elite caliber of a Cain and definitely not the athlete that Keon is. And at the plate, over the last 4 years Lagares has basically been a 250/295/370 hitter...good for a whopping 665 OPS. Add in that he's injured more often than not and last played over 100 games in 2015. There's absolutely no way that Lagares should be playing over Broxton. The only thing Lagares does better than Broxton is make bad contact more often(versus swing and miss). Lagares is basically a 4th or 5th outfielder on bad teams only, and really probably shouldn't have a job at the mlb level.

Projectors? Couldn't they just use the scoreboard? I've thought about that, not sure if it would work. I can tell you if they charged $20 or whatever for parking plus $10-$20 to get in to MP it wouldn't work. But if it was like $10 total and they had the concessions open behind home plate it might attract a few thousand people. Or if you mean just using projectors in the parking lot, same thing. I could see a decent crowd being there if they didn't charge too much for parking. Looking back to last season, we probably would have gone to something like that. I was thinking moreso outside the stadium in the parking lot. I would think it much easier to manage outside the stadium. It might be tough to find revenue streams to keep parking reasonable enough that people want to come. Im not sure they could sell beer but maybe other concessions or brewers gear. Even if they didn't make a ton of money, i can't imagine there being significant costs involved. For 15-20 bucks to park, i would definitely want to go for a playoff game or the last couple games of September if it's close.

Except when Thanmes was out there. Total nightmare. I admittedly forgot that he was out there. Yelich, braun, and cain obviously spent the most time out there. But you see my general point. Of roughly 4300 innings of outfield play in 2018, undoubtedly elite defenders played 1400 innings. Another 2300 innings from guys that fall between solid and above average. The last 600+ innings are santana and thames. For the most part, we had really good defenders out there. Broxton, cain, Phillips are elite. Yelich, braun, perez, Granderson are solid or better. You could actually argue that santana is borderline average, but that's up for debate.

If the Brewers stayed good for a while, they could probably attract quite the crowd during road playoff games or important September games if they put up some projectors with the game on and put some resources into drawing people. I don't think it would work as an every game type thing though.

Ya, see this all the time and I just don't get it. On the rare chance I actually go to a game I'm going to get decent seats, usually around the Brewers dugout, and there's always some group of 20 somethings that show up in the third inning double fisting beers and bloody mary's who watch for an inning and then leave only to come back around the 7th with more beer and bloody mary's and then leave for good after the stretch. You spent like $80 on a seat (plus probably another hundred on alcohol) to sit in it for 20 minutes. But I'm just a 30 year guy with the temperament of a 70 year old man so what do I know. Ha, I get this point. That said, once or twice a year I might be this type based on who I'm there with. Sometimes though you just bounce from area to area and still kinda watch the game from different spots. Still, why buy a good ticket then right? When I'm with a group like that who's not as into baseball as me I'm fine with buying $20 bleachers. Still, I think the solution to this would be more open 'hangout' areas around the park. I think I mentioned it in a different thread about young people and someone mentioned here as something ATL did. Sure it would cost some seats but it would appeal to a younger demographic that views it more as a social event than purely to watch the game. Areas similar to the duck blind at Mallards games. Stick them in corners or in the outfield and let people mingle like in a bar. Couldn't agree more on the open hangout areas. From a purely fiscal perspective it makes a ton of sense. Pack people in like sardines to those areas, have a ton of alcohol options nearby...the Brewers would make a fortune off those people. And again, pack them into the OF corners or other bleacher-type areas.

I'm not sure the shift alone will account for that big of a swing. We did have very strong defenders at most positions for most of the year. We only did the goal line package of trash defense with Schoop and Shaw a couple times, and the defense was notably worse based on the eye test. And our outfield defense was excellent all year at all positions, while your example the Phillies had pretty bad defenders out there...including Hoskins who is a small step above putting Aguilar in LF. Outfield shifting isn't nearly as big a thing as infield shifting, that's moreso just having good defenders. I completely agree that we shift better than most teams, but the shift alone definitely isn't going to change a 3.5 ERA pitcher into a 5 ERA pitcher. Maybe having plus defenders at most positions in addition to shifting better than most teams could swing an ERA close to that much, but I'm not fully convinced of that.

Trading catchers at the deadline is a bit tricky though, they have to learn all new pitchers and probably can't play full time at catcher right away. With Realmuto, you could justify playing him at 1b or DH depending on your team...though any contender probably has a beast hitter at 1b/DH. I think Realmuto would have to have an 850 OPS and healthy 1st half this season for them to be able to justify the same asking price they currently have for him at the deadline. I don't think his value can really increase at this point unless he puts up Posey MVP type numbers. Even if he's a more established hitter, any contender is getting him for 1/3 less time than if they traded for him right now...and his salary would be that much less team friendly. And there's also the risk of him getting hurt, or struggling to start the season and sitting on a 725 OPS at the all-star break. They'd be kicking themselves at that point for not trading him right now. Especially considering Realmuto is a catcher, keeping him is a huge risk.

An even bigger concern than the shuttle line is their setup for uber and lyft. So often that line is so long that it impacts people leaving from general and preferred parking. I hope figure out something, that problem is only going to get worse

You forgot the part about while the rude guy is going back to his seat, he stands and pauses in the middle of the aisle for 10-15 seconds to have a conversation with the guy next to him.

I wonder if they'll let him close over Dominguez. That would be an awful lot of money for a non-closer.

I'm not sure it's best for young kids. Getting a table is generally tough, there's usually a line and I believe they limit you to an hour. Otherwise there's a bar area that's roped off, though I'm not sure they would let kids hang out in that area and it can get pretty crowded. If I had kids I definitely wouldn't consider hanging in that area to watch the game.

Fangraphs projections are decent for guys that are under about 32 and have played at the mlb level for at least 2 years. Obviously any guy can have a bad year or career year. They seriously struggle to predict how very young players will perform at the mlb level and when players will decline. Looking at fangraphs projected standings is a complete waste of time. If you're curious how Yelich or Shaw or Perez might do this year, fangraphs projections are probably pretty reasonable. Then again, you could just as easily average their last 3 years and get roughly fangraphs projections. Last 3 years for Yelich average 302/382/507 vs fangraphs 296/381/514...close enough. When I look at fangraphs, I consider it a starting point and add in my own assumptions. Arcia for instance showed enough promise at the end of 2018 and in the playoffs that I expect him to exceed his projections. Kratz on the other hand, they were probably a bit too nice to and he'll probably be worse than his projections. I'm frankly a bit blown away by how bad they anticipate Aguilar being. I expect him to regress as well but not to be a below average hitter at 1b. Something in the 800-825 OPS range for Aguilar would be a good projection, fangraphs dropped him all the way to 770 from his 890 in 2018.

I'll agree aguilar at 3b simply isn't realistic. A large part of last year's success came from very good defense. Aguilar weakens that no matter how well we shift. Im starting to think lowrie is going to be our guy. He fits so well.

The guy played in all of 12 games with Milwaukee and had just 32 PAs. Talk about a small sample size. Even with that, he had 2 doubles, 2 homers, slugged .500, and drove in 5 runs. Wish all our guys sucked that much. Im with this guy on choi, he was in aaa most of his time with us and was an absolute monster im spring training. Going into the season, we had yelich, braun, santana, thames, aguilar, and choi vying for time in 3 spots. Heck choi was so impressive in spring that he almost took aguilars roster spot. Choi did not suck in his time with us and that's not up for debate

This trade looks kinda meh on the surface, but stearns track record being so excellent gives me confidence that this was a good trade

The reds got a lot better this year without giving up a ton, just cash and really not a ton of it along with a couple fringey prospects. The Reds were also very left handed and got some balance in this trade and a solid/stable SP option. I can see what they were thinking to make this deal.

I thought the same thing, but that's a VERY left-handed roster. Pederson, Seager, Bellinger, Muncy for sure...probably Verdugo unless the Dodgers decide to just go crazy and trade him for Realmuto and have a crazy stacked team. I would think Pollock would fit exceptionally well on that team and would cost way less.