KeithStone53151

Again, this package is more than what we gave up for Yelich...therefore not even close to realistic.

Not really, if anything I kinda wanted to piggyback off your comments so I included it. It's not just the one poster that seems to want to offer the moon for 2 years of a catcher though. He's a good catcher, but he isn't yelich and his specific package was far better than the yelich package.

I'll add, that Burnes + Woodruff + Turang + Ray is a far better package than we gave up for Yelich. Yelich...the NL MVP this year. The guy who has been a far better prospect and far more valuable than Realmuto at every point in their respective careers. Also Yelich was under 5 years of team control at the time of trade versus 2 for Realmuto. I think most offers for Realmuto are out of touch with reality, this one takes the cake though.

I'm sure that Miami would ask for that to begin with and I don't think we should do that, but I don't necessarily think we should just walk away after that ask, either. The market for Realmuto could be big, or maybe not. There are FA options available like Ramos and Grandal that a couple of potential suitors might look at first instead of Realmuto if they don't want to pay the prospect price. We know they were asking for a Robles quality prospect which is similar to Hiura in value, but no one was willing to give that in July or last year and I'm not sure why that will change now. Thing is, regardless of what the Marlins feel Realmuto is worth, they are not in a very good position of leverage with him. Everyone knows he wants out, and they know he's not going to re-sign with them. So they have 2 years to get the best possible deal for him. No doubt, his peak value is right now. No matter what he does in 2019 for the most part, his value won't be higher next year with just 1 year of control remaining. Hader...really? Come on man. I'm not a proponent of the whole "Stearns would hang up immediately"...but just no. Hader is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, possibly one of the best pitchers in baseball. It's like having Andrew Miller with 5 years of team control and 2 years of $550k contracts. The only way his name should even come up is if it's the Mets discussing Degrom/Thor...and even then he's not moving. One thing many of you are missing with Realmuto is injury/performance risk. He's coming off a career year, in a catching depressed market, and at peak age. His trade value is probably about as high as it ever has been. I would personally argue it was higher at the deadline(when he had a 902 ops versus his full season 825 caused by a very mediocre 2nd half), but they missed that chance already. The only way he could increase his value is having a 900+ OPS type first half again. If he has a bad month in the first half, or gets hurt...his value would plummet. So no, it's not like they have all this leverage like they don't need to take the best offer. Not taking the best offer this offseason would be a dreadful decision for that franchise.

It's basically paying FA market price for 2 wins (though not necessary paying SP FA market price for 2 wins, in that respect the Cubs overpaid by a pretty good amount). If you think Hamels is a 2 WAR pitcher (whichever version of WAR you want to use), then it's an even deal in terms of value. The difference between the Brewers and Cubs is that the Cubs can afford to pay some players $10 mil per win. They can pay their way to extra wins. The Brewers can't. The Brewers need to find value propositions to add extra wins. So this is something that can make sense for the Cubs, but would not make sense for the Brewers. It partially depends on their payroll limitations. IF they can easily go to $250 million or more payroll, yeah it's probably whatever for them. If they plan to cap themselves somewhere below that, then they chewed up a significant amount of remaining payroll. I'm not sure they NEED to do much adding, maybe a relief arm. But if they want to improve the outfield, 2b/ss(whichever baez doesn't play), or add an impact arm to the bullpen...this hurts their ability to do that quite a bit.

I think Hamels got a bit of a shot of adrenaline going from a trash team to a pennant race. That shot of adrenaline probably wears off sooner than later. He's a soft tossing control pitcher with a number of below average offerings at this point in his career. He's either painting corners or getting pummeled. Barring other significant adds, this team is going to be counting pretty heavily on bounce back years from a lot of guys. Russell, Schwarber, Almora, Contreras, Darvish, Quintana, Bryant, Edwards, Morrow. Some of those guys will, Bryant is probably a lock for 850+ OPS. I would bet against a majority of them having good years though. I would also bet on Baez falling back to earth a bit. He'll still be a good player, but I think he'll be more 270ish BA guy than 290 that he was last year. Going from MVP candidate to fringe all-star caliber guy is a pretty significant drop though.

Nothing like having two 35 year olds leading your rotation. Add in a 32 year old that missed most of the season, a 29 year old that throws 41 mph, and Quintana...who apparently is only good against the Brewers...that has WS written all over it. This $20 million pushes them around $215 million. Exercising this option also means they are basically punting on Chatwood, or they don't have confidence Darvish will be ready for opening day. Also means they don't have a rotation spot for a high profile FA signing in the rotation, barring a trade of course. I'm curious how a Cubs fan would argue they will compete with that pitching. Do they plan to go super-pen like the brewers? Or spend like drunken sailors on MM or BH and hope to have a super-lineup like the red sox? Or maybe they mostly stand pat and hope a new hitting coach can help guys like Russell, Schwarber, Happ, Almora, etc fulfill some of their potential? I just don't see enough pitching on this team to be a serious contender.

https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of I just want to add this. At these prices, give me Pollock and Miller. Braun becomes a 4th OF and backup 1b when Pollock is healthy. One of Thames/Aguilar is gone. Perez/Saladino/insert cheap IF...at 2b until Hiura comes up. I know this won't happen but I'm a huge Pollock fan and would love to find a spot for him on this roster.

There isn't a reliably accurate one yet. The most important factor in playing defense is positioning and that comes down to which teams have the best read on data combined with the way they pitch the batter. Some teams excel at one but not at both. And some teams excel at neither, cough Mets, Orioles, Phillies, cough. It's not as simple as looking at spray charts. Your pitchers have to locate their pitches as well. You can't have your whole defense shift for the batter to pull and then have the pitcher throwing his cutter tailing away. If I'm going to trust that I'll have my defenders in the best spot, then I'd probably start prioritizing the guys with the most accurate throwing arms. If that's the case, wouldn't it make more sense to use the money that you are going to spend on Cabrera on pitching, and hope that Perez and/or Dubon can hold down 2B until Hiura arrives? Or even sign a 3B like Donaldson with the hope that Shaw can hold down 2B. I mean I don't know what a player like Cabrera is going to command in this market, but that would be a pretty expensive utility infielder theoretically. You are right that the numebr of players out there available who offer the positional versatility the Brewers like is pretty limited. I did read something yesterday saying that there's a chance the Mets may not tender Wilmer Flores a contract. I wonder if he would be of interest? We definitely could go the 3b route, but the key again is flexibility. When Hiura comes up, it's hard to say whether this new person will be utilized more at 2b, 3b, 1b, ss, OF, etc. I'm not sure we find someone good that can play all those spots, but the more positions this person can play well...the better.

I'd be happy with Gonzalez as well, just don't think he's as obtainable as Cabrera. Both are good fits. Gonzalez imo, is less likely to depart his 2018 team, will be in higher demand, and will cost more. I actually don't think Gonzalez stays in Houston, but as noted I think the demand will be high. Just about every team can use a guy like him. I'm not sure he'll quite get Zobrist money, but much closer to that than 2/18.

I think the Brewers know exactly what they are doing from a defensive scouting/shifting/etc standpoint. I think the Brewers are way ahead of most teams on that. It does depend how much you want to factor in defense. There's certainly an argument to be made to have Shaw play some 2b and some 3b this year. I do like Lemahieu alot, he's a very good player obviously...he just completely blocks Hiura and that signing only makes sense if we trade Hiura or it's a 1 year deal(unlikely). Plus, the whole Coors thing.

It's not like these games count, it's all about developing young players. It seems a bit unusual to split up Brewers but this explanation seems logical in this case.

Murphy would fit pretty well in place of Thames on the roster. Would likely allow us to carry a true 4th OF. Bench of Schoop, Perez, 4th OF, C...with Shaw or Murphy filling in at 1b sometimes against RHB. You could go with someone besides Schoop, mentioned him for simplicity sake.

What do we think Cabrera is looking at? He got 2/18.5 in 2015-16 offseason. Since then, he's been better with the bat but a bit worse defensively. Sean Rodriguez got 2/11.5 after a bit year after the 2016 season. Does somewhere between those numbers make sense for the soon to be 33 year old? Or do we prefer a 1 year deal?

Nice work on this, very helpful. I think anyone we get for 2b needs to be a multi-position guy. We carry 13 pitchers and 2 1b only types. Along with a catcher, whoever pairs with Perez needs to be able to play multiple positions and ideally SS. We'll have to weigh keeping Schoop against the cost of Gonzalez and Cabrera if they maintain similar roster construction. They could of course opt to dump one of our 1b which would reduce the need for flexibility a bit. I still think we'd want a multi-position guy...someone that can get out of Hiura's way in May/June and still be helpful.

Yeah he's an expensive bench player regardless of if they get Harper. He's not starting very often on that team.

You kinda make my point though. Developing quality young arms is very difficult, not many teams have enough arms...while plenty of teams arguably have too many good OF prospects. I know 2b is a bit more demanding, but at the same time there are plenty of decent 2b options available in FA this offseason...while the reliable SP options will be few and far between. Young, controllable, quality SP is king and has the most value in baseball. If you look back at the deadline, how many of the trades included a top notch SP prospect? Both guys in the top 100 that were traded were position players. I can understand putting Hiura higher than Peralta but not Burnes. It's arguable though because Peralta is so young and is much more likely to get better than get worse over the next few years. Burnes though isn't really debatable for me. That guy has frontline starter written all over him, so long as he can polish up either his change or curve. I'll take a frontline starter over an all-star 2b all day. Tying that all back to Realmuto, I think either Hiura or Peralta being in that trade is a bit of a stretch. I believe the Marlins would have strong interest in either and would probably want Nottingham coming back as well. I would prefer to trade Peralta of the two if I had to as Hiura fits such an obvious hole for us. We could use the RH bat at 2b specifically...and have a bit of a rotation logjam. Peralta, Nottingham, and a low end project type like Herrera or Ward would be a pretty good offer...and if that isn't enough I would move on.

Ehh, maybe. I would be surprised if this was anything but DJ getting blown away by the Reds. The Reds have a number of very good young pitchers that he could probably help.

I agree that Nottingham is underrated and generally agree with not trading hiura for a 2 year rental. I think you generally underestimate what realmuto could fetch on the open market. Think Posey money if he stays at ceiling for 2more years. Massive if, but just saying that's a low contract. I'll say again though, hiura is no longer our top prospect. It goes either burnes, hiura, peralta or burnes, peralta, hiura. Not a knock on hiura, just those other guys had a ton of success at the mlb level at a very young age and are pitchers. I would consider peralta in a package for realmuto, but I'd want a usable mlb caliber player included with realmuto. And it certainly wouldn't be peralta and ray and Nottingham.

This is generally a good point. You aren't going to have 7 prospects all hit the majors in 1 year and all of a sudden go from a dreadful team to a playoff team. It just doesn't work that way. You have to incrementally work your talent level up.

Hiura and burnes should basically be off limits. Both are too close to the majors and fill obvious holes.

Vlad Jr. is going to be a little much but I don't see Whitley as an outrageous ask for 2 cheap years of control over a 4+ WAR player at a very shallow position. They were asking for Robles during the season. Realmuto is really, really good. I think we could get him, but Corey Ray plus some filler isn't going to get it done. Whitley isn't as outrageous but still not happening. The Marlins can ask for whoever they want, doesn't mean it's going to happen. And vlad looks like a future MVP, there are like 5 guys in the whole league the blue Jays would consider trading him for. I'll agree ray plus filler isn't enough. I would consider ray and peralta as the leading players if we tried getting involved, I just feel like someone else will beat that offer. And I'm not interested in trading hiura or burnes

The market for relievers was hot last year. Pretty much everyone bought early and was signing anyone decent to a 2/16. I'd be surprised if Soria didn't get at least that.

Oh man, I'm putzing through a marlins fan site. They are thinking vlad jr or Forest Whitley as a headliner, or else multiple top 50 types. These guys make even Cubs fans look intelligent...