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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    It's a bit wild how few of good catching options are out there, and how much better Realmuto is than most catchers in the game. The package that the Brewers should be offering...and the package that a big dollar payroll team likely offers...will be significantly different to the point that I don't think Realmuto is realistic for us. Dodgers make the most sense for Realmuto, but there are very few teams that won't check in on the cost and try to get him.
  2. KeithStone53151
    Fixed
  3. KeithStone53151
    Look at the kind of money he'd be walking away from. I don't think there is any way the Brewers would be in the bidding. He's got Cubs written all over him. Very few things would make me happier this offseason than if Kershaw signed for 6/190 with the cubs.
  4. KeithStone53151
    He does have a changeup but he very rarely brings it out as a reliever. You really have to watch close, because it usually gets by the guys in the booth and he'll throw it like no more than once every 4 or 5 appearances. It's not a bad pitch either, but one time through the order there's no reason to bring it out. It was pretty clear to me that Hader focused last offseason on his slider. The increased usage and effectiveness of that pitch in 2018 makes that pretty obvious in my opinion. I would like to think he'll do the same this offseason with his changeup. That said, he hasn't really shown great stamina and that could hold him back from being a SP. I would like to see them try him in the rotation, but with the other young guys we have coming through I can also understand keeping him in his current relief role.
  5. KeithStone53151
    I don't think Hager has a realistic shot at making the opening day roster, barring injuries or him going all Sogard/Choi in camp. That said, good depth guy to potentially fill in down the line...and a no risk move.
  6. KeithStone53151
    Aguilar... In seriousness, I don't mind entertaining offers for Shaw...but I find it unlikely someone values him to the point of enticing us to move him. If the value is high enough, there are options out there that we can look to for a Shaw replacement. With how Stearns operates, we might make selling and buying moves...but I anticipate the net effect of our moves to improve the MLB club at the expense of the farm.
  7. KeithStone53151
    I think the Yanks will be more interested in LH bats if possible. I can't think of any notable player on that team that hits LH besides Gardner(who doesn't play) and Hicks(switch).
  8. KeithStone53151
    I understand the thought, but in defense of teenagers that don't want to do it...a very small percentage of students really have a shot at any of the $500-$1,000 scholarships. The top 5-10% of students are going to scoop all those, while the kid with the 2.8-3.2 GPA that maybe plays 1 or 2 sports isn't really going to have a shot...regardless of how good their essay is(and in reality, it's unlikely that student writes a better essay than the 3.8-4.0 students anyways). I've seen how it works. A relative of a close friend of mine who's going to med school and is basically elite on paper got a majority of the assistance money she applied for. Safe to say, the ones she didn't get were probably other students that were similarly elite on paper...definitely not the 2.8-3.2 GPA guy.
  9. KeithStone53151
    Add me to the group of very early 30s guys that's shooting from the hip at this point. It's hard to plan anything definitively with so much potential variation in the market, government entitlements, healthcare, etc. I'm an extremely frugal person and will have the goal of retiring as soon as I can. I'm not a government employee, so retiring in my early-mid 50s probably isn't realistic unless something changes drastically with healthcare over the next 20 years. At this point, my shoot from the hip strategy would ideally be early 60s and utilizing COBRA or obamacare to stay covered up to Medicare.
  10. KeithStone53151
    This was my point. Those 2 guys he listed will finish in the top 5 of mvp voting this year with yelich winning it. Id bet shaw and aguilar would finish somewhere in the top 25. You can argue we were weak at 1-2 spots in the lineup, but if your expectation is 8 guys that all finish in the top 10 or 15 of mvp voting.... you'll be consistently disappointed. Even the juggernaut that is Boston had some roster holes.
  11. KeithStone53151
    I'm a bit surprised we are still on Whit. The price sounds prohibitive, and he's not as good as someone like yelich where you can justify the package. Yelich was a blue-chip prospect when he came up and was 26 at time of acquisition while Merrifield will be 30 and a large part of what makes him a good player is speed...which will only diminish with time. 2 years from now he's likely to be a 280 hitter with minimal power that can steal 20 bases on weak catchers and play solid D. Basically he's what we wish Hernan Perez would have become. Hiura/Burnes/Peralta are all off limits and all probably more valuable than Whit. Peralta is the only one that's even close but no way would I give up the pitching for him. I'd have Peralta headline a package for Realmuto before Whit. All of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff had their values skyrocket with their success on such a big stage. I would actually argue that Burnes has more value than Hiura at this point and would be our number 1 prospect if eligible. Young, controllable pitching is king.
  12. KeithStone53151
    This exactly. It's a team full of flawed and bad hitters. We have absolutely no clue what Coles does behind the scenes, but unless he's telling the guys to take pitches over the plate and then flail at anything the pitcher throws with 2 strikes I'd give Coles 5-10% of the blame for the hitters sucking. A team full of flawed, bad hitters. Reeeeeally? Don't we have 2 hitters in the top 5 of the mvp voting? Who exactly are these bad, flawed hitters on the roster on this team that made the nlcs?
  13. KeithStone53151
    This Red Sox team is being floated as the greatest team ever. If they are not that, they are one of them. That roster has no flaws. The Astros were being discussed as a dynasty after Game 2 of the ALCS, and they never won again. I've already decided the silver lining is that the Brewers may now make it in a different year when the matchup is more even. The lineup is crazy stacked, but I'm not as sold on their pitching. It's good, but not quite good enough to be considered a best ever in my opinion. I still think the Red Sox win the Series handily, and that lineup is seriously elite.
  14. KeithStone53151
    If he looks for an outfielder, it will probably be a 1b/OF type...and probably LH. Basically a simple upgrade to Thames more specifically geared toward the outfield...and probably a veteran that has good experience as a PH.
  15. KeithStone53151
    If it was based on career years only, Schoop could make $25m next season and it would still be an easy choice to keep him. Sogard was terrible his whole career and then had one good year. Schoop has had multiple seasons to justify keeping him. The problem is that his most recent one was so bad, but he just turned 27 and his only other bad year was at 22. Really it's the people saying there's no way they should keep him who are basing everything on one year. I wouldn't keep Schoop, definitively, but not entirely because of his skill level. Couple his career worst year with Hiura's likely MLB arrival and it seems like a no brainer to NOT spend $10 million on a 2b only. Yes I know, he can sorta kinda play SS. We are much better off with a multi-position guy...and specifically one that hits left handed if he's out there. Murphy, Lowrie, Gonzalez, maybe Walker are the types of guys I'd look to and only if the price is right. Murphy and Walker are more 2b/1b types, but their bats theoretically play at 1b if they have a good year and could allow us to clear Thames. Lowrie and Gonzalez are probably too expensive unfortunately. Back to Schoop, he's a career 258/294/444 hitter. He's ok on defense. That guy on paper is probably worth about $10 million. This club needs to find value to compete, we can't be paying sticker price for WAR. For that reason, keeping him at that price is not a good decision.
  16. KeithStone53151
    Well right. If QTC had more upside, TJ wouldn't deter a team. But he's a reliever, there are certainly better options for rule 5 than QTC.
  17. KeithStone53151
    Torres-Costa isn't eligible for minor league free agency until after the 2021 season. My guess is that the Brewers do not protect him and he doesn't get drafted considering there's not any guarantee he'll be ready for the beginning of the 2020 season either. I'd tend to agree. You'd be betting pretty heavy that he'll have no issues coming back from surgery and will immediately be ready to take a step forward in 2020 after sitting out a year and rehab. Hard to see it for a best case scenario upside of Justin Wilson.
  18. KeithStone53151
    Murphy would be a good target, especially if we don't keep Thames. He could get time and 1b and 2b once Hiura comes up, and be insurance if Aguilar regresses.
  19. KeithStone53151
    I'd argue anything as far down as in the 7-8% range makes it a pitch, so even this year his curve was a pitch in my opinion. That's roughly the mix I'd expect from Burnes as a starter, probably a bit more curveballs and less changeups unless he really works on that pitch. It won't be his best pitch right away, but 7-8% is enough to keep a guy thinking about it...or put him off balance if he isn't thinking about it and you throw a decent one. Especially when you consider he will certainly only throw that pitch to LHB. This year he faced 1/3 LHB, if he faced similar next year that would mean 20% of his pitches to LHB would be changeup. This is part of why I argue his curve was actually a legit pitch this year. He threw it almost exclusively to LHB, so again about 20% of his pitches to LHB was a curve. And I saw the pitch, it was a solid pitch...not as good as his other 2 but easily a good enough pitch to keep a guy off his best 2 offerings. Coming out of the bullpen, you don't get side sessions to work on things like starters do, every outing counts. A starter can throw his changeup in a side session and get to a point of feeling comfortable with it in game action. For a reliever with 4 pitches, it's much easier to ditch the weakest offering temporarily and stick with your 3 best ones...and especially to ride your 2 best pitches.
  20. KeithStone53151
    Thames hasn't handled part time duty very well. I think he's gotta go. I hate to say it because he's a good dude and I've enjoyed watching him, but that 2 1b thing really limits our flexibility in a bad way and is only worth it if both mash.
  21. KeithStone53151
    A lot of good points. Especially payroll, your plan payroll is probably 125-130ish depending on how much Miley/2b/C cost. I'd expect around 20-25 combined per year. I can understand Peralta/Burnes/Woodruff kinda competing for that 5th starter role with the biggest loser ending up in AAA and 2nd loser ending up in the bullpen. One guy you didn't fit in anywhere was Nelson, not sure if you are ignoring him and figuring anything he provides is a bonus. That's a reasonable take considering the injury. I'd like to give 2 rotation spots to younger guys if we can. 2 of Woodruff/Peralta/Burnes. We do have options coming up behind them in AAA. I'm not entirely sold that Chacin/Miley can do this again, so I don't think I want to count on either as more than a 4th or 5th starter. Those young arms are our chance for mid-rotation or better starters...the odds of them becoming that are greater than another low 3s ERA out of either one of Miley/Chacin in my opinion.
  22. KeithStone53151
    I thought the same of both guys. Anderson wouldn't simply be a salary dump though. His contract is still team friendly, especially considering the later years are options. Thames is tougher to judge, 1b/DH can play corner OF in a pinch...big power and decent numbers but very streaky. I also wondered if Davies could be on the move depending on what we could get.
  23. KeithStone53151
    That's about where I have it also. I would be surprised if we don't make some moves with infielders and pitchers, try to unload some players. We have a ton of SP and infield options. I personally think Schoop and Moose are both gone and we figure out a different 2nd utility guy to go with Perez. And do the same platoon thing at 2b with Perez and ? until Hiura takes over. The easy obvious places to help the team will be the bullpen and catcher. Bullpen only because we'll lose Burnes/Woodruff to the rotation.
  24. KeithStone53151
    Wow, this couldn't possibly be lazier. Actually yes it could, you could say "well...I've only ever seen him throw 2 pitches so.....". But come on man. Every scouting report that exists says that Burnes throws 4 pitches. Every single one. Clearly he ditched the change temporarily because you don't need a 4th pitch to get through 2-3 inning stints. And I find it frustrating that this is the exact same argument I had with many on Hader last year, when you all said he was a 1 pitch pitcher despite mountains of evidence to the contrary. Now in one years time Hader magically became to a 2 pitch pitcher, but how could that be you all definitively said he was a 1 pitch guy? And I'd bet that improving his changeup will be a priority this offseason... None of these 23-25 year old pitchers are finished products right now. It is incredibly common for very good starting pitchers to be very fastball heavy early in their career with one primary secondary pitch...and develop the others over time. Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, Price etc...they were all heavy fastball guys and threw 1 secondary far more than the other. They put the finishing touches on their other secondaries at the mlb level and became elite. Maybe Burnes isn't elite, but he's shown the big fastball and plus slider/cutter as well as a very solid curve when he's needed it. I would bet you'll see both his curve and change thrown significantly more in a starting role next year.
  25. KeithStone53151
    Maybe he’ll think a bit longer before trying to roll over somebody’s ankle like a middle school child am having a tantrum. I don’t care for retaliation for bat flips and theatrics, but Machado deserves a fastball somewhere where it hurts. This really isn't that different than hockey, where every team has an enforcer that protects little twigs like Crosby. Anyone that gets too out of hand with a key player for one team might find themselves literally in a fist fight on the ice with a big dude on that team. If this guy wants to try and injure our players through his dirty and reckless plays, those actions should have consequences. And whatever fine he got is probably comparable to that $3 playoff convenience fee many of us dealt with. Basically meaningless.
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