KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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We have a winner...official lineup
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I hope this continues through at least the first handful of innings. Would greatly help Chacin keep the ball in the park.
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Yeah for sure. Whether we are up 3-2 or down 3-2 in game 6...if we get a lead I guarantee we are pitching the primo relievers. Hader for sure would go 1+ and probably 2+. The difference comes if we are losing game 6. If we are up 3-2, we might save hader completely. Down 3-2, might as well use him for 1+ and do your very best to limit the scoring and maximize your chance of coming back. I'm not as concerned about Chacin as many seem to be. He'll be mismatched against a couple hitters, will probably have to pitch around bellinger and maybe muncy...or at the very least pitch down in the zone and away with offspeed and stay away from their HR pull power. Take advantage of the pitchers spot in the lineup. Generally speaking, he has a good chance to keep us in the game if he can keep the ball in the park.
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The rally towels are the same for each game and have been for DS and CS, fyi.
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Winning today comes first yes but if that starts to look unlikely tomorrow becomes the priority. Somehow, have to win one of the next 2. Cannot go down 3-1. If you can just go into Wednesday at 2-2 you're in a decent spot. So if L.A. gets up 3-4 runs early on, you'd probably need to ask Chacin to eat what he can and get at least 3 from Peralta. That generally seems fair from both of you guys. Getting a lead today specifically(versus tomorrow) would be ideal as you can go to Hader for 2 and have him available on Wednesday. The goal is obviously to find a way to win 2 of 3 in LA and get home just needing 1, but banking 1 of the first 2 is huge to avoid an elimination game in LA and ensure we get the series back to Milwaukee. Anyone who thinks we have more than a 5% chance to win 3 straight in LA is dreaming...even 5% might be optimistic. I see us generally going with better relievers at least through the 7th if we are winning, tied, or even down just 1 or 2 runs. Just try not to have a guy throw more than 18-20 pitches. If we are still down after 7, probably time to let Peralta or Guerra pitch bottom 7 and bottom 8. To further explain, say Chacin goes 3+ and it's 3-1 Dodgers...probably use some combo or Guerra/Cedeno/Soria/Burnes to get through the bottom of the 6th. If it stays 2 runs through top 7 then you go to the long guy in peralta...but if we can tie them or take the lead at any point during that you can go to knebel and hader
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Very small sample but right handers Dozier/Machado/Puig and Taylor are 0/6 with 4 strikeouts and 4 walks against him. So looking at that the walks are a real risk but really shouldn't have him on the roster if they don't trust him. He has been dominant against right handed hitters all year. Yeah I tend to agree that there's a plan to use Peralta, I'd be surprised if he doesn't pitch during this 3 game stretch. There's a decent chance they have him piggyback behind GG tomorrow with Woodruff pitching behind Chacin today. Going that route would pit him against a RH heavy lineup, unless they wanted to make changes in the 3rd or 4th inning and leave their bench empty in the 7th like they've done both games so far.
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I asked my rep about WS presales, apparently they don't know much right now and are still working out details with MLB. I would be surprised if there was a presale before Friday this week.
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For note, Beuhler has faced the Brewers only once. Moustakas and Yelich both went 2 for 3 against him, Cain 1 for 3 with a double. All of Shaw, Aguilar, Arcia, Kratz went 0-3 or 0-2 against him...Braun did not start that day and has never faced him.
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I think the schedule was a huge factor. They want him to be able to go 2 times through the order on 3 days rest on Wednesday. ~75 pitches was probably a number they had in their head, and a reasonable one at that. Third time through the order, seeing a perennial MVP caliber RHB, is a big factor too. And look at Ryu; he was just as unhittable as Miley, if not better, until all of a sudden he wasn't. There's just too many good, evidence-based reasons to pull him. You can't deviate from good strategies on hunches all the time. He had to get Taylor out if he wanted to go 6. It was a fair chance but it wasn't meant to be. I was mildly annoyed by pulling Miley there, but as noted if they intend on having him pitching Wednesday I would understand it a bit more. We will be pretty thin on pitching if he doesn't pitch Wednesday so I'm hoping he does. I'll be a bit annoyed if he lets Hader pitch 3 innings today. Gotta make it 2 max so he's available on Wednesday if we get a lead. I could also get onboard with him simply being a 1 inning closer during this 3 game stretch so he's available everyday.
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I agree, but that strategy involves trusting the depth of the pen, not just riding JJ and Hader all the time. In that sense, they're not sticking with what got them here, and it's not just Saturday. It's letting Hader hit just so he can pitch a 3rd inning with a 5-1 lead. It's giving JJ an extra inning with a 4-0 lead against the Rockies when you have a golden opportunity to get someone else some work. It's putting JJ and Hader out there in the 9th on a wet mound with a 6-0 lead against the Rockies. Each one of those moves is fine on its own, but all of them combined constitute a strain on your best relievers and a definite deviation from their year-long strategy of making it a 25-man team where you rely on contributions from everyone. This is right. What got us here is general bullpen depth. Pitchers like Hader are a definite strength, but another strength is our 4th-8th best relievers being as good as anybody's in baseball and are much better than a version of Jeffress that isn't clicking right now. Guerra is a prime candidate for it as he was very very good in September. Woodruff is another example and guy that was good in September, and look what he's doing. I'm not saying we straight bench Jeffress, but giving him an extra day and using him in more platoon friendly situations is probably a good idea over the next few days. Also ideally in lower leverage situations.
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Usually when Braun is out, he goes Cain 3rd. I've thought Yelich should hit 3rd since early August but it hasn't happened yet. I should just put C in there as they are basically interchangeable, I don't pay enough attention to who catches who. Pina has significant reverse platoon splits, which is why I like him today. And yeah I suspect Braun will get in there, I just like the idea of giving Granderson a look and likely 3-4 PA. Braun will for sure be starting the next 2 games with Hill and then Kershaw on the mound, this is the only real chance to give Granderson a start until potential game 7.
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I can understand that and I know some of his hits allowed were weak. Turner is also notoriously a beast in the postseason. I'd just prefer to give him one more day and use other relievers today if possible. We certainly have that option. I'll trust whatever CC decides here, if they do go with Jeffress he should have a quick hook though.
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I know Chacin struggled mightily against the Dodgers, but he did similar against St Louis and bounced back a couple months later with a nice outing. Here's hoping. We really need Yelich to get it back going, especially against the RHP today. Beuhler doesn't have significant splits against RH vs LH, but I still can get behind going with Granderson over Braun and saving Braun for a PH later. Granderson Yelich Cain Shaw Aguilar Moustakas Pina Arcia P PH Braun for Granderson when they inevitablly bring in a LHP for Granderson.
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It's not really like that. Relievers are supposed to be utilized that way. And regardless of how many times JJ successfully worked over multiple innings this year, I'm sure there's plenty of evidence showing that, like most relievers, he's best in his first inning of work and against the first few batters he faces - let alone against a team like LAD and the top of their order. That's just how bullpens go. And the accumulation of innings and appearances throughout the year is a factor, too. He's got a ton of miles on him right now. It's not the same as pulling Yelich at all. Also, hitters had a BABIP of .249 against him this year. He was good, but more of a candidate for "luckiest good reliever" than "best reliever". I generally agree with luke here, I don't want to see JJ right away if we can help it. Considering pretty much everyone aside from miley should be available today, I don't think we NEED to use him in a game we are winning. We have other good back end relievers that can close one down. Maybe go Soria, Knebel, Hader for 1 each and have Guerra bridge the gap to the 7th if Chacin starts to struggle. Jeffress will have to pitch and will probably have to pitch a game we are winning, I just don't think I'd do it right away. Everyone here is speculating as to why he's struggling right now, nobody definitively knows if it's a mental thing or his stuff simply isn't as sharp, or if it's simple BABIP regression against some of the best hitters in baseball. I won't fault CC if he goes to him right away, but based on the knowledge we have I think I would try to avoid using him if possible...at least today.
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I still haven't received my refund either. On a side note, I was tracking stubhub from 2:45 until 3:00 on Saturday when tickets went down. Someone mega-panicked and listed section 121 row 8 tickets for like 85 apiece. They were snatched up immediately, heck I could see someone in the stadium buying them just for the upgrade value. There are deals to be had if you wait until the very last second and get lucky, that's risky though.
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This might be a different story games 6 and 7, but still annoying for these games. It's not like they couldn't build that a week later. I think the bare spots are being a bit overblown. I was at both games and saw very few bare spots. I would be surprised if there were more than 200-300 empty seats either night. I'll add the standing room etiquette was pretty bad. I don't care about saving spots, moreso the standing in areas you aren't supposed to stand and getting drunk/loud/beligerent. I was in the last row of a loge infield section and had people standing in the aisle and directly behind my seats where they shouldn't have both games. Game 1 didn't bother me as the people were nice and courteous, game 2 one specific girl standing behind us had a voice like nails on a chalkboard...and as she got more drunk she got more loud and really dampered our experience. There was also a guy a section over that got more and more drunk that would have equally bothered me had he been standing behind me. I wonder how many others in the last couple rows of sections had to deal with people like this. I definitely plan on getting rid of these seats and using the presale extras for any of game 6 and 7.
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I don't hate the idea to be honest. Give either Braun or Aguilar the day off as a bat off the bench later in the game. If it's Aguilar, you go with Schoop at 2b and Shaw at 1b. I suspect he's been working with Coles in the cages, only way to explain him being completely unused. Granderson Yelich Cain Shaw Moustakas Schoop Pina Arcia You can PH Braun for Granderson when they inevitably put in a lefty in that spot. You also could PH aguilar for Shaw at that point in the lineup if they go with a lefty there. I don't know that CC will do that, we will see.
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I understand that thought, I also think that if he's not right, we need to pivot to other guys and shift him to low leverage role immediately. Just because Jeffress has gotten us here doesn't mean we have to sink or swim on his arm. We have other guys, I'm not definitively going to say that he needs to move to a low leverage role immediately...I'll trust CC and Stearns regardless of what they decide. Peralta has yet to pitch, Guerra has barely pitched. I understand both are flyball pitchers that will play up a bit in a more pitcher friendly environment, so pitching them in LA makes sense. We will have to try and use them in some games. Cedeno, Jeffress and Burnes have all struggled so far. We probably should plan on Hader for 2 and Knebel for 1 in any game we are winning. Or honestly get through 7 by any means necessary and give the ball to Hader to finish. He is our best pitcher against both RHB and LHB. Above all else, Yelich needs to get back going. He's a guy I don't think we can win unless he gets rolling.
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Only 700 or so seats left at this point, lowest being $97 now. I doubt prices will go down at this point, so if you haven't bought you should probably get on that.
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Dodgers Lineup Taylor Turner Freese Machado Kemp Hernandez Bellinger Grandal I honestly think the dodgers are playing right into out hands with the platoon splits. They could switch Taylor and Freese for Muncy and Joc later, but that's really handcuffing their double switch and PH for pitcher options. We should have a huge advantage in the last couple innings of games with more bench options and a better bullpen...here's hoping we can get to the 6th and 7th innings of games with either the lead of at a tie.
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Pina has caught all 5 games that Gonzalez has pitched, so it'll be him and not Kratz. Perez/Schoop are both hitless career against Kershaw (Perez 0-5, Schoop 0-3), I'm guessing they go with Schoop unless they just want to get Shaw in there regardless (Shaw is 0-2 with a BB against Kershaw). I went Kratz primarily because Pina has very heavy reverse platoon splits, but you make a good point and clearly were correct. I generally think it's a good idea to leave one or two lefties in against a LH batter and vice versa against a RHB. Guys will generally pitch much differently to RHB vs LHB, it's good to make them adjust rather than fall into a routine...at least in my opinion.
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For lineup today I'm expecting Cain Yelich Braun Aguilar Moustakas Schoop Kratz Arcia They might swap Moose and Schoop, also might go Perez over Schoop at 2b...but otherwise I can't see them doing much different than that.
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1200 tickets left for game 1 tonight yet, though prices actually have been going up for the most part since this morning. I saw prices as low as $73 this morning and now up to $89. I think a lot of people were in wait and see mode and are going to be pulling the trigger. I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of the CS games are this way. WS is just going to be crazy, hard to predict what that will look like
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Setting it up this way gives miley 2 starts in Milwaukee, and that's beneficial as a ground ball pitcher. That likely factored in. I doubt gg faces one guy, but I fully expect a pretty intense chess match between the two. Both are good managers and sharp guys, so should be a good one.
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Postseason 25-Man Roster Prediction
KeithStone53151 replied to obobo55new's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Finally, only change is Cedeno for Broxton