KeithStone53151

I'm open to Duke, but moreso as an August target if nobody else grabs him before then...and only for cheap. Having him available in September with expanded rosters could be very beneficial, and potentially playoffs if we make it and pending our roster construction. I'll also add that I liked Duke over the offseason and wanted us to sign him from the start instead of Logan.

Barnes and Williams are pretty good. Also I believe Jeffress is available, he threw 23 pitches yesterday...I don't think that's enough to rule him out for today. I'm honestly a bit surprised we didn't send down Orf and bring up a fresh arm with Knebel and Hader likely unavailable today. The good news, I would think both those guys should be available again tomorrow.

I would anticipate something like Villar Yelich Braun Aguilar Shaw Saladino Broxton Pina

I can't imagine Zagurski is here long. As soon as we get some SP reinforcements, Suter will take his spot in the bullpen. Also could see Houser or Lopez coming back up. I'm happy we made the move, it made sense to wait for Saladino though. Hopefully Saladino isn't done with his pre-injury hot streak.

Agreed, and that's why the Marlins can but a huge price tag on him. Contending teams like Boston, New York (play 1B & C), Seattle, Arizona, Milwaukee, etc. would be massively upgrading their team by adding Realmuto. There is no supply available of good all-around catchers. Marlins will dangle Realmuto like the Padres did Brad Hand and see if any team is willing to pay the price. Marlins are in the driver seat when it comes to Realmuto. In the article where the Marlins claim they are considering offering Realmuto a long term contract, I don't believe it for a second. And even if they did, I doubt Realmuto takes it. The Marlins definitely can dangle Realmuto like the Padres did Hand and try for the home run and maybe they do, but that's risky as Realmuto could lose value quickly. Look at the Hand example, he hasn't been quite as devastating as he was last year with an ERA in the low 3s versus low 2s. He also is owed $25 million over 3 years instead of $29 over 4. It's hard to say whether they made a mistake, all depends what they were offered...but it seems they may have been better served to capitalize on his value than wait. With Realmuto, they can either trade now a guy set to make $12-15 million over 2+ years...or wait and trade him down the line with less team control and at a higher per year cost. They won't be good next year, and possibly not even the year after...so keeping him is relatively pointless. They can say whatever they want and try to do all the posturing in the world. But fact is, returns over the offseason or next deadline aren't likely to be better than any offer they get this month.

Great post, I couldn't agree more. The teams dishing out the prospects have tended to lose trades over the last 10-15 years. I get that Degrom, Thor, Realmuto have more than half a season of team control, but some of the prospect packages that people are willing to offer seem insane.

I would edit that to say "The Cubs don't have the ammunition to overbid the Brewers by wildly overpaying in prospect capital", otherwise I agree with most of this.

It's a bit of a shame many of the Cubs injured players are missing time now while the have offdays, and likely will be healthy in a couple weeks when they play 29 games in 30 days. A bit fortunate for them. It's going to be really tough to hang with the Cubs down the stretch, though it's nice we still have a small lead.

I think you are on to something here. I know the Brewers would likely do it given Dozier is the better player, but I think the Twins would as well. They are having a down year after a playoff season last year and really don’t need to rebuild. Getting a major leaguer with team control for Dozier makes sense. The Twins may take Villar back, but I assume you are also tossing in more if you are the Brewers. Wouldn't the Twins just keep him for the comp pick if that is the best they can do in the trade? Or are we thinking his down season will continue and the Twins won't QO? I don't know that Villar is less valuable than a QO. And, a QO is very risky for the Twins and their payroll. Especially considering the most recent offseason that saw 40 HR Moustakas turn his down and get something like 5 million this year. And a general note and reminder, Dozier is a rental. He has no bearing on Hiura other than bringing in Dozier virtually guarantees Hiura won't be up as anything more than a PH in September this year...barring injury. Dozier really didn't look good in the series against us...he seems to be more concerned with hitting HR to aid contract negotiations than helping his team win. I'm not entirely sure he's an upgrade over Villar for the 2nd half the way he looks right now.

Clearly you like Merrifield more than me, and that's fine. For my numbers, I used full seasons just to simplify and baseball reference. I view Merrifield as a guy that WAR really likes, but isn't nearly as valuable as WAR makes them look. Kinda like when Gomez was worth something like 8 WAR in 2013 with his low 800s OPS and probably 30 stolen bases or something. That's very valuable...but 8 WAR? That's fringe Mike Trout territory, all sorts of no. Point being, WAR seems to give some guys more credit than it should and I think Merrifield is one of those.

They can say that all they want, it doesn't necessarily make it true. Probably more posturing than anything. Regarding Peralta's value, it's definitely fair to question his value to other teams. Some teams may be turned off by him being a short pitcher. I know Sheffield is LH, but I view these guys as fairly similar considering stuff/results to this point. Peralta has a touch less velocity but makes up for it with his release point and deceptive delivery...the type of thing that doesn't show up in grades on top prospect lists. I doubt we include him in a deal unless he's viewed by the other team as a top 50ish prospect that's MLB ready. We have plenty of fringe top 100 guys we could substitute that aren't as valuable as Peralta if the other team doesn't value him appropriately.

This is going to make me feel dirty all over as I hate WAR, but for a quick and easy comparison I'll do it. Gordon posted 11.5 WAR from 2014-2017 which is just under 3 WAR per season. Merrifield posted 5.5 over the last 2 seasons, which is just under 3 WAR per season. Merrifield's career OBP is .334, Gordon's is .326. Their k rates are relatively similar and they play similar positions(2b first and can play CF/other outfield spots). That's very comparable. Merrifield has slightly more power, Gordon has a bit more speed. The contract is also very different, but you never are going to find an absolute perfect comparison when trying to determine trade value. If contracts didn't matter and I had to pick one of the 2, I'm taking Gordon. Since contracts matter greatly, Merrifield has a decent amount more value than Gordon...but we shouldn't be giving up a top 100 player for him. A 2 or 3 player package of of guys in the middle of our top 30 is probably about right. I think the Dubon comparison is moreso what Dubon has a pretty good chance to become if he pans out. Dubon's skill set is fairly similar to Merrifields, except Dubon can play SS which makes him more versatile. I generally don't find Merrifield to be all that special of a player. He's a decent player with a lot of cheap team control, but are we even sure he'll be a good player and worth the arbitration cost in the last 2 years of that team control? I personally don't. His obp and slg are fringy as is, but his speed and versatility make up for it to a large degree. This guy is already almost 30, those SB number and ability to play CF is going to go away relatively quickly. If you take his 750 ops and reduce his SB total from 35 to 10...that's a very fringy player, barely worth rostering at 2b. With Hiura coming, this doesn't make sense. If we do trade Hiura for SP help(which is the whole point of this thread I believe), then Merrifield in my opinion should be valued as a guy we expect to get 2 years of solid yet unspectacular production from on a league min contract. Definitely not worth a top 100 player.

Jeffress was absolutely not a "little more than a throw-in". The relievers at the deadline had insane value. Smith brought back Bickford (Top 60) and Susac (AAA/MLB) and he had the same cheap control with an extra year (33 innings) of good experience but Jeffress had 27 saves the year traded. Both similar type production. The only way Miami is getting (3) Top 100 is some team is beyond desperate and massively overpays. And I noted Realmuto's extra year of experience. I also noted Lucroy had a much better track record as 4 of his previous 5yrs were better than anything Realmuto's done up to this point. How is that negated? Regarding the Lucroy trade, it was basically Lucroy for Brinson and Jeffress for Ortiz. Cordell was an added piece to even out the deal a bit. Jeffress at the time was more valuable than Smith, and Smith's return was noted. That all said, Realmuto is more valuable than Lucroy. You are talking about giving up a top 25, top 50, and top 80 roughly prospect for Realmuto when Lucroy only got a top 30ish and we'll say half of the cordell return. And Brinson at the time was coming off injury and struggling in AA with Texas...so his stock was definitely down and probably not up to a top 30 as he was noted. Hiura in general is going to be more highly valued because he's a very safe bet to be at minimum a decent regular with a very good chance to have an all-star upside at a middle infield spot. Point being, Hiura for Realmuto alone is probably not something we should do...much less adding Peralta+ to the deal. I generally think Peralta isn't getting enough credit as a prospect. He compares very favorably to Sheffield, who is a top 50 prospect. I would rather have Peralta than Sheffield if given the choice. My comparison of Florial to Broxton was moreso tools. Florial is much more likely to become Broxton at best than some 5 tool super star. I really don't think that dude is gonna hit, and all the tools in the world doesn't matter in baseball if you can't hit.

My internet is very good, but I run into a bunch of lag when watching. That could just be me. I like no commercials, and I actually like how they question things trying to involve the audience. Overall though, I don't like the announcers. It makes me appreciate BA that much more.

Why in the world does CC group his lefties and righties together in the lineup? It defeats the purpose of having balance. Its not like he's gonna ph for shaw when he inevitably faces all lefties in the late innings. So stupid

On a side, why do these national articles find a way to propose these trades there the Yankees get to keep their best prospects and do a quantity package but for the brewers they go straight to the top prospects? Its not really up for debate that degrom is more valuable than realmuto, yet we are giving a better prospect in the realmuto trade than they are in a degrom trade. How does that make any sense? We have just as much farm depth as the Yankees. Which of their top prospects are they keeping in this proposed deal? Florial and Sheffield are both high end top 40 prospects, Loasiga is I believe top 75 according to Baseball America, Frazier was a very high prospect before graduating from lists, and then they get Sonny Gray too as an interesting reclamation project to replace DeGrom. That's a really strong offer for DeGrom and would beat our offer even with Keston unless the Mets are really in love with Keston. Florial shouldn't even be a top 100 prospect. He's all tools no bat, he's basically keon Broxton before people realized he couldn't hit. And I'm not convinced sheffield is a better prospect than peralta, especially with peralta having success against mlb hitters. You in general seem to go over the top to try to avoid being a homer. If we tried attaching gray to a trade and he was brewer, you'd say he had little to no value. But as a piece for another team, he's a reclamation project. This package is a depth package that is more suited to fit the yankees needs than the Mets. The guy even says the Mets are strong in outfielders yet the trade includes 2 outfielders as the prime pieces.

On a side, why do these national articles find a way to propose these trades there the Yankees get to keep their best prospects and do a quantity package but for the brewers they go straight to the top prospects? Its not really up for debate that degrom is more valuable than realmuto, yet we are giving a better prospect in the realmuto trade than they are in a degrom trade. How does that make any sense? We have just as much farm depth as the Yankees.

The hardest of passes. I could live with trading hiura for degrom, but not in a package for realmuto. We should have peralta or burnes headline any deal for realmuto.

But if he's ready to play tomorrow, we'll have saved 3 days rather than have someone up that can actually help us...This teams DL management is a joke.

Why does CC lump all his LH bats and RH bats together in the lineup? Baseball 101 tells you Miller/Thames won't face a RHP after the 5th inning unless the starter is killing it or we are losing and they face Rodney. One thing I noticed at the game yesterday, it seemed like the Brewers were sitting fastball on almost every pitch...no matter who the hitter was. And it's like the Twins knew, as all their pitchers threw a ton of offspeed stuff that we were out in front of very often. If I can pick up something this obvious, I have to think every team in baseball has already figured this out...

Some of those projected trades are ridiculous. That Moose trade to the Braves may be the worst. Oh dear god these trades. The Moose trade is seriously a joke, I don't think the Braves give up either one of them for Moose. In what universe have teams been giving up massive hauls for solid but unspectacular players? I can understand the premium price for Machado...but he's really the only rental that commands a premium return.

I tend to agree with a lot of this. Right now our rotation is Anderson, Guerra, Chacin, Suter, Peralta...their likelihood to remain in the rotation is probably in that order roughly. Right now, Woodruff is our only real depth option and he isn't looking overly sharp(wilkerson too). We also have Davies, Miley, and Nelson due back at some point...but I'm not sure how much I trust any of those guys to be productive and someone we want starting when they are ready to pitch. Eventually Peralta will be shut down and Suter is definitely better served as a long man in the bullpen. Add it all up, we definitely could use a starter. Happ would probably slot in either 2nd or 3rd in the rotation, while Stroman would probably slot in at the top of our rotation. Hard to say what Stroman's cost would be, I'm very curious how it all plays out. I feel like we are only a couple weeks away from serious rumors and at least some initial activity.

Light hitting 2b that can play outfield and is an above average defender and can steal bases. I highly highly doubt this guy hits 19 HR ever again, I think it's unlikely he ever breaks 15 again. I don't see this guy as enough of an upgrade over what we have to give up Peralta or Burnes for him. He's definitely one of those guys that WAR really likes, but he really isn't as valuable as WAR seems to think he is...not even close.

If he can't hit for power at Colorado Springs, I don't want him anywhere near the major league club. His value lies in his power, as he's never going to be a plus defender or table setter. Colorado Springs and, to an extent, Coors Field are not really the home run fields that they're made up to be. They're batting average and doubles/triples fields much more so. The fields are very large and cavernous so that the altitude does not make it so that there are 15 HR/game. Therefore, the ball still goes out of the park a little bit more than average, but BABIP and therefore batting average is insane because there is so much ground to cover for fielders. Plus, you have the whole thing with pitches not breaking as expected for pitchers so the ball is in play more. It's not that the altitude fields aren't good for HRs, but they are not the driving force behind what everyone's assumption of them is. For instance, take Charlie Blackmon: Home: 64 HR, .342 BA, 30 3B Away: 61 HR, .263 BA, 7 3B Random: Blackmon has played in 30 more away games than home games over his career so this is even more impressive, though maybe it does support the more HR theory a bit more. DJ LeMahieu (I'm lumping in the partial Cubs year here because I'm lazy): Home: 18 HR, .329 BA, 90 2B, 20 3B Away: 24 HR, .269 BA, 57 2B, 9 3B Some Rockies like Arenado do hit a bit more HR at home but part of that is because it's really hard to hit homers at Petco, AT&T, and Chavez Ravine. That's one thing that gets drastically overlooked when considering the Coors effect. Home road splits would be more drastic for the Brewers if we played in the NL West with those 3 stadiums you noted...which are probably 3 of the top 5 pitcher friendly parks in baseball. I tend to agree with a lot of your post, but keep in mind there probably wouldn't be as extreme of a BA split if these guys didn't play so many games at those 3 extreme pitcher friendly parks.

I wasn't trying to imply we'd only give them like Woodruff plus Houser and call it done. They'd never do that. Maybe Burnes + Phillips though? Or Ortiz, Broxton, Houser? Find a way to get some value out of some blocked upper minors guys with high floors and limited ceilings.