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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    I'll add, look at his gamelog down the stretch. He didn't get any games against the braves or phillies or padres. He was facing contenders(and the all offense reds) in all his starts. I think Woodruff should more than likely open on the club if no other moves are made. It becomes far more of a competition if Cobb or Arrieta is added, and maybe he's kept in AAA as depth.
  2. KeithStone53151
    https://www.fanragsports.com/dodgers/heyman-jansen-worried-about-mlb-effort-imbalance/ This article is somewhat related. I specifically want to point to Jansen's comment that only 2 teams in the NL Central are trying to win. I couldn't disagree more. Both the Brewers and Cardinals clearly have made significant moves towards improving their clubs and are at minimum in serious contention for a wildcard spot. The Cubs are obviously contending. I'm not sure which of the Brewers/Cardinals he's excluding from the "trying to win" group, but either way he's wrong. The Pirates are sorta kinda but not really trying, and the Reds are probably 1-2 years away from serious contention. I would also argue that the West has 4 serious contenders, and the Padres paid Hosmer $144 million guaranteed or something. They are a year or two away but very close to contending. The East is a bit of a different story. The Mets are being cost conscious but sorta kinda trying, the Phillies and Braves are building up to contending probably as soon as next year, and the Marlins...yeah they don't care about winning. So by my count, only the Marlins and Pirates in the NL are clearly not trying to win. 13 of 15 teams are either in win-now mode, or are built up to the point that they'll likely be in win-now mode within the next 2 years. I think it would be funny if the Dodgers lost 7 or 8 of the first 10 against a couple good NL West teams. They'll see Greinke once and Bumgarner twice, it could happen.
  3. KeithStone53151
    Sure but signing a Morton or Miley doesn't preclude you from relying on young controllable players. When Jeremy Jeffress was starting a game in a playoff race last September, it's because the Brewers ran out of youth and control. I see the point you are making and it was on full display last year. I can generally understand the argument for opening the year with the slightly worse guy that doesn't have options versus with the guy who is slightly better but has options. I feel like Woodruff and Williams are guys that could potentially fall into that "slightly better but has options" group. The extreme example...knebel has options, should he open in AAA to preserve depth and have gallardo open with the club? Obviously not. There comes a point where you simply have to put the best player on your roster and let him solidify himself. And that is definitely variable based on the rest of the system. We have so many other players that could fill in well if Williams opens with the team. We have a good number of SP options in AAA available, not quite as many as bullpen but better than most years past. For me, Williams is a no brainer. It will be a pretty awful decision if he doesn't open with the mlb club. I'm not entirely convinced that Woodruff would be that much better than Miley. Probably better than Suter, but not Miley. I think if we add a Cobb or Arrieta, it might be the right decision to open with Woodruff in AAA. We'll see how it shakes out. Haudricourt had tweeted that MLB execs had told him the FA SP would need to sign by end of the week to be ready for opening day. I'm about ready for something to happen.
  4. KeithStone53151
    Knebel's k rate is so high, that a much higher than league average strand rate would make sense. No different than arguing that Santana's BABIP should be much higher than league average considering his hard contact and line drive rates. Maybe >90% doesn't happen again, but I'd anticipate it to remain above league average. Also, Knebel is still fairly young and it's probably more likely for his control to get better than worse. It's altogether possible that his control improves slightly, but his overall line(ERA)gets slightly worse based on some favorable numbers regressing a bit.
  5. KeithStone53151
    Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick...just saying. As an extreme example, Tom Brady was a 6th round pick. In football, I would give a 6th round pick for a good player. I wouldn't give up 25-year-old Tom Brady for the same player. I don't want to give up Corbin Burnes even for Archer. I don't necessarily mind giving up a 4th in a signing. I would not make a habit out of giving up draft picks...but here's the thing: If we sign Alex Cobb and give up the pick, I'd be shocked if we sign more than one more pick-attached player in the next 3 or 4 years. Probably 0 of them. I wasn't trying to imply that we dare not sign Cobb because that 4th round pick is the next Corbin Burnes and we'll miss him if we get Cobb. I don't think a 4th round pick is going to stop us from making that move, I was just pointing out that the pick shouldn't be viewed as relatively meaningless...which was the vibe I got. And a 4th round pick in the MLB draft is far and away more valuable than a 6th round pick in the NFL draft. It's honestly very difficult to make any sort of comparisons between drafts as NFL versus MLB is so wildly different.
  6. KeithStone53151
    Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick...just saying.
  7. KeithStone53151
    Maybe the Orioles. I can't imagine the Brewers care even a little bit about the Rays compensation.
  8. KeithStone53151
    You clearly are more anti-villar and pro-guerra than most. Do you see Villar getting traded or DFA? I'm also not sure on Hoover, and I think if Miley and Suter are both kept...it will be Miley in the rotation. I also noted that only Hader/Barnes of the 8 relievers you listed have options...and those guys aren't going anywhere. The Hoover/Miley spots likely include one guy with options that can get swapped out for others with options. I think Williams and Woodruff find opening day spots. I get the Williams has options argument, but we have enough depth options headed to AAA that someone likely will look good down there and get bumped...plus we need someone in the pen with options. Woodruff I think has an inside track so long as he looks ok later in spring, but Miley/Guerra definitely could kick him to AAA if he doesn't earn a spot.
  9. KeithStone53151
    The under $50 million isn't all that surprising if that's were draft compensation is tied. I keep forgetting how these new rules work. I find it weird that Lynn was offered 2/12 by the Twins, but apparently the Twins are in play for Cobb at 3/49.5... If this is true, it might be a case where all 4 teams make similar offers and he simply picks his favorite...not an ideal place for us to be but maybe our team situation and Matt Arnold help with that.
  10. KeithStone53151
    Devil's advocate on these players downward swings. Thornburg was wrecked by Boston's throwing program. Jeffress is a headcase and clearly needs a familiar, controlled environment. Smith got hurt, you can't trade every pitcher out of fear that "this is the year his elbow goes". Gomez had a couple good years in his peak 26-29 age range and regressed after that...not at all uncommon. Villar basically followed in Segura's footsteps, less the personal tragedy. I don't think Guerra's 2017 surprised anyone given his age. The most surprising falloff of this group was lucroy. Also the general team situation dictated the moves. We are at a different place as a franchise than we were when we made these moves. I'm a huge huge Stearns fan, but I don't think him and our front office is THAT much smarter than even some of the worse front offices in baseball at this point. If Knebel had a ton of red flags and we thought he'd regress...other teams would see it too. It would be a somewhat similar scenario to Guerra's post-2016 market...he was likely shopped and clearly nobody was stupid enough to offer what Stearns deemed a worthy package for him.
  11. KeithStone53151
    Right. I mean I guess you can play the game of "If the Angels called offering Mike Trout..." if you really want...but trading Knebel can't be a remotely serious transaction proposal.
  12. KeithStone53151
    You should research what the Astros gave up for Ken Giles. That's probably the best comp for knebel right now. That said, I don't care. We are ramping up to contending status and are likely best served keeping knebel.
  13. KeithStone53151
    I'm pretty sure I'm about as anti-lynn as they come, but I'd probably do 2/24 to provide some depth...unless of course the brass seriously believes in Miley and suter. They seem to, but it could also all be part of their posturing for trades and FA moves.
  14. KeithStone53151
    Chris Tillman came off an ERA of almost 8 over 93 innings. That's not THAT small of a sample size. You can't even compare the two with that guy coming off that year. Tillman should be thanking his lucky stars he got a deal with a guarantee.
  15. KeithStone53151
    Oh man. There's low balling, there's insulting a guy, and then there's that offer. I'm so curious how this all ends, I can't imagine a contract that insultingly low gets accepted by anyone. Maybe Lucroy or Moustakas take low dollar deals, but not the pitching.
  16. KeithStone53151
    Agreed. I've been very anti-lucroy as well...but having him and Pina in a somewhat even timeshare would add a lot of value and would be very cheap. I have to think someone else(Astros, Nationals) are willing to beat that offer, but hard to know. I would like to think Stearns is at minimum monitoring the market...as he's done with just about everyone. I think C might be a bigger need than 2b with Vogt getting hurt and the 2b options looking solid thusfar.
  17. KeithStone53151
    Anyone watching see how Burnes looked? Stat line looks nice, any notes(velocity readings) would be appreciated.
  18. KeithStone53151
    Beat guys reported he came in 10-15 pounds lighter intentionally. Don't rule out him pushing to experiment at 3b to add versatility.
  19. KeithStone53151
    I think every single player you listed except maybe lucroy will get far more than you noted.
  20. KeithStone53151
    Houser just turned 25 a few weeks ago. This is what Law said about him when he saw him in the AFL this winter. Fair enough, but I still think these guys are making assumptions on Houser based on a very small sample of data from instructs and the AFL. He's RH and likely bullpen bound, his arm isn't as elite as Hader's to justify a high rank on being a likely bullpen guy. I think he has a chance to be a solid reliever, maybe a Jacob Barnes type quality middle relief guy...don't see much more than that and definitely can't see justifying a rank even over someone like medeiros.
  21. KeithStone53151
    Probably an off the cuff comment, probability along the lines of "so you're telling me there's a chance". I doubt this got any serious discussion.
  22. KeithStone53151
    Houser is ranked 11th by Keith Law at ESPN. I'm wondering if he had one really good bullpen session in instructs or something, it seems crazy to put him so high considering he's 26 and highly likely bullpen bound if he makes it at all.
  23. KeithStone53151
    You don't think Suter could beat out Yelich for MVP?
  24. KeithStone53151
    Anderson yes, DAvies ERA the last 3 years was 3.71, 3.97, 3.90. Not sure you'd call any of those a "career year". His FIP was actually the worst of his career last year at 4.22. He seems better than his end results indicate because of his dreadful April.
  25. KeithStone53151
    I have a hard time expecting much of anything out of Nelson upon return - he was GREAT last year, but I have serious doubts after this injury that he will get back to that level. Anything he does provide is gravy, but we cannot bank on him being the ace he was last year. Nobody in baseball works harder than Jimmy. If anyone is coming back from that injury, it's him. I'm sure the Brewers are in a better position than we are to determine whether Jimmy can return to his same form or not. Maybe part of the reason we haven't made a significant move is that Jimmy looks fantastic to this point and has a chance to get back sometime in May.
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