KeithStone53151

Illinois has higher state taxes, a 3ish% difference in state tax on say $140 million is substantial. If you went to the Cubs board you'd see they think Darvish is going to sign with them for 4/$90...LOL. $120-130 is probably the low end of what he might get.

How does anyone know that we matched the Cubs offer? How do we know what the Cubs offer was? Are the offers made public to the GMs? It wouldn't surprise me if the agent/player told the GM's what was offered, how else do you make a bidding war happen? They could lie of course I suppose, but GM's are probably aware of agents that lie about that ****. Regardless of the specifics, I'm sure they have a pretty good idea of what the offers are.

But the problem is we don’t know how serious the “multiple suitors” are. And we also don’t know if the other teams did the same thing TB did. HH19 said TB increased their demand. He did not say that the other teams didn’t. So we don’t know if they did or not. We also don’t know if the other teams are interested enough to increase their offer, or even stick to their offer. They could have both said “yeah we’ll take him but we’re not going to give up much” which is why a move hasn’t been made yet. Plus, if word gets out around baseball like it apparently has around here that the chances of the TB trade going through went down that doesn’t help either. You just had one of the two teams you were bidding against disappear. That only helps your position. I could be completely misreading this situation but in my opinion I think the Brewers had every intention of moving Santana but have since found that other teams are just not willing to give up as much as they expected. I don’t know if the acquisitions of Yelich and Cain are the reason why but I certainly don’t think it helped. Other teams could have increased their demand as well. This is my own speculation, but I wouldn't be surprised if Archer was plan A and a Cleveland SP is plan B...for obvious reasons. It will definitely be interesting to see if teams come back closer to the original agreements that seemed to be in place. We can manage to get everyone a decent amount of PT if we keep Santana, and our offense will be awesome, so we can make do if needed and target rotation help in-season.

Jeez, Royals got up to $185 million!?!?!? I feel like the Brewers are at least capable of being their equal from a revenue standpoint, if they can do it why can't we? Obviously not every year, but in the right given year.

Do you know if revenue sharing is factored in? If you had a chart like this for our highest payroll year, we could make a much more educated guess at what our potential payroll for 2018 could be. I don't see any reason that we can't be in the 50-60% range or higher for so many reasons. Low payrolls back to back years, revenue sharing, boosted revenue as a contending team, plenty of other team are operating in that range, etc. I also generally buy these numbers as nothing overly surprises me, and the sources are very solid(cot's/forbes) Before seeing this, I figure we could comfortably maintain $120 million payrolls year in and year out...and I wouldn't have been surprised by any payroll any year until it went over $140 million. I think I'll revise those numbers upward to $130 million base payrolls with $150 million being an absolute max in a break even year.

HH19 did specifically say the Rays and other increased their asking prices after the OF deals. I can understand them trying to do that, but as you said there are multiple suitors for him without very viable alternatives at that price. And a potential lineup of Cain, Yelich, Braun, Shaw, Walker, Santana, C, Arcia...that offense scores a lot of runs.

I really wanted to side with you on the whole argument above, but it doesn't help when you suggest things like this. With all due respect, the notion of trading Thames and keeping Aguilar undermines your credibility completely. Thames is a much better player than Aguilar and they need an LHB 1b. Aguilar has been about two tiers below Thames for their entire careers, including the minors, and is a total waste of a roster spot. With Braun at 1b, the idea of keeping a one-dimensional RHB who can only play 1b (and barely, at that) is mind-numbingly foolish. If you think he can actually fetch some prospects, then maybe you'd have a point, but we've seen in free agency that guys with his profile are hardly even neutral assets. Teams could easily sign Morrison or Duda or Lind for less than 8 figures without giving up anything. The idea of Aguilar being on a level with Thames because he had one good season as a part-time player is stuck in people's heads for some reason and they can't get it out despite all logic to the contrary. It's the worst Milwaukee sports case of collective insanity since thinking Brandon Jennings was a future superstar. I don't think anyone would suggest we get a top 10 organizational prospect for either player from any system other than a pathetic one like the Angels or Cubs systems. I could see either player having some value to an AL club as a platoon bat. Aguilar is league min while Thames is owed $11 million, so Aguilar probably has more value in this market(2018 would be a different story). I could see a team like Cleveland or Boston wanting Aguilar for a strict platoon/PH role and giving up the their version of Javon Ward/Larry Ernesto/Jean Carmona. That might be aiming a touch high, but something in that ballpark. Aguilar did have some value the way he was used, and that usage can easily be replicated by other teams. I think Thames will be less sought after anyways due to salary, and he fits much better on the team than Aguilar as a LH bat.

If Suter is starting 30 games, I'd imagine they would be close to 77 wins, too. Because it means a lot went wrong. Exactly. This is projecting our win total before the offseason is done. It assumes Suter will start in the rotation and even finish the entire year there(which is not happening even if he starts there). Can't really take it seriously. When I initially looked at it I thought the projection was wild, but also...how are 140 innings of 4.8 ERA worth 1.2 WAR? On a decent team, I don't really want a guy pitching to a 4.8 ERA on the roster...much less throwing 140 innings before we pull the plug. That isn't an above replacement level caliber player in my opinion.

They are already assuming Harper will sign with them.... talk about delusional. A couple weeks ago one guy invited us to join their board...claimed they'd be civil. LOL, maybe if they replace the word civil with outrageously rude...

Lol. We refer to them as FIBs for a reason...

I totally agree with this. I don't think there's any chance we get Darvish. It's fun to dream, but the reality is they have a bigger payroll to work with and Epstein has proven to be very decisive in players he targets.

I wonder what it would take to get Stroman. I'd imagine it'd be a king's ransom. I imagine if we get Darvish, we would also trade Santana + one of Woodruff/Burnes + other pieces for Archer or Stroman. Yeah that probably puts us ahead of the cubs on paper

Darvish + Archer ... !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You and me both. I was told that even suggesting it was the equivalent of me thinking I’m smarter than David Stearns. I'm not surprised other teams are trying it, I just think Stearns is smart enough to wait. If a team was willing/able to do X deal, they'll come back to the table for X deal. I don't blame them for trying to use the leverage to improve their situation, but we have options available to keep us from getting taken advantage of. Phillips can open in AAA, Braun to 1b, and there are a number of teams in play for Santana...plus we can sign a FA pitcher instead of trading if needed. I'm sure the Santana deal will work out as Stearns had hoped, we'll see over the next week or two.

You can do this with literally every team. Ian Happ hit .253/.328/.514 last year as a 22/23 year old and they have him at .249/.320/.462. Willson Conteras hit .276/.356/.499 last year for over 3 WAR and they have him at .271/.346/.465 with 2.8 WAR in 2018. Javier Baez has had 2.7 and 2.2 WAR the past two seasons and they have him at 1.9 WAR in 2018. They don't have 23 year old Albert Almora Jr. improving at all. I don't see Happ with 514 slugging again but overall he probably remains about that OPS. Baez at 1.9 WAR is probably stupid, Contreras should probably project to improve a touch versus regress, I don't think Almora is all that good of a player so I'll ignore that one. But that's kind of my point, and this isn't unique to the Brewers, projections are garbage across the board on young players...to the point that they might has well have drawn numbers from a hat. You almost have to take every one of them and make significant adjustments to get to anything remotely realistic.

If Hendricks is still throwing 86 mph this season, he's going to get shelled to the point they might consider putting safety netting in front of the bleachers.

The Cubs have some serious 2017 Giants potential. Very little room for injury/performance issues.

Having a contact guy like Cain 5th makes some sense. You want to stagger your productive guys with high k rates, the argument against batting a Shaw/Santana/Thames type of combo. My order would be Cain/Yelich/Braun/Shaw/Walker/Pina/Phillips/Arcia. I know I cheated and grabbed Walker which makes every lineup combo easier, but with the moves we've made I imagine we likely switch out Villar for an upgrade. You could also easily move Yelich leadoff and bat Walker 2nd with Cain 5th.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/poll-how-good-are-the-brewers.html A poll of average joe's says we'll make the playoffs, over 50% of people who participated think we'll win 88 games or more... In addition to the breakout candidates being ranked conservatively(which I agree with) they tend to struggle with young players...and we have a lot of them. I've also found pitching projections to be a complete joke and 100% useless. Arcia for instance, 277/324/407 line last year and projected 261/313/407. So a top prospect turning 23 in his 3rd big league season is going to get worse? It's far more likely that he improves on that line. Domingo Santana turns 25 this season and was a career 282/374/485 hitter in the minors but from 2014-2015 in the minors was more 310/420/525. He posts 278/371/505 this year but is more likely to regress to 258/353/472 than maintain or improve? And his BABIP is going to be .327...the lowest mark by over 30 points in the last 4 years? For him, I honestly think they drew numbers out of a hat as these aren't remotely logical. Ryan Braun a 1.1 win player, LOL, enough said. Knebel is likely to regress a bit from his absurd season, but 3.19 ERA seems a bit excessive. Hader with his 3.71 is only going to be slightly better than Tyler Webb and his 3.87, LOL!!! These pitching projections almost seem like they actively try to project everyone as close to a 4 ERA as possible. How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections

Usually what happens when you win 86 games, cut loose dead weight and add a few stars, is you regress to 77 wins. I've trashed how terrible projections are enough that I won't do it again here, but 77 wins is unlikely to say the least.

I understand the concern. I guess my question is why is it shortsighted that he doesn't start in April, 2018? If he start next year, or even later this year, is that really a wasted opportunity? It would be better for him to build up stamina this year. If it waits until next year, can they really expect 180 innings from him? Probably not unless he pitches a lot of multi-inning stints and we make the playoffs this year. As much as I hate Hader in the pen this year, it may benefit him being able to throw competitive pitches more often with the development of his offspeed. Maybe throwing them a few times every other day helps him more than every 5 days.

Forsythe had a .351 OBP last year and wore out LHP (.290/.418/.452) despite batting just .224. I think he's more valuable than you think. He's also solid defensively. In a soft platoon with Sogard, that's not a bad option. Do you think he's an upgrade over Perez? Take a look at his 3 year trend, he looks like he's falling off a cliff. 224/351/327 line last year with 1/3 of his atbats coming against lefties...he was clearly dreadful against RHP. He would only be valuable if he was strictly used against lefties, and that's difficult to utilize. I'd rather pay league minimum for similar production and more flexibility in Perez.

Depends on how he is pitching at the time. Swarzak had the hot hand when the Brewers picked him up (2.23 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 1.03 WHIP). Herrera had a 4.25 ERA, 4.30 WHIP, 1.35 WHIP last season. If I'm the Royals I see three scenarios. I'm looking at 2018 as a lost season when considering the free agent losses, and obviously that plays heavily in how I approach Herrera. He is scheduled to make 7.94 million. #1 - Keep him and assume he pitches well. If so I pay him 5.3 million dollars for four months of work and then am able to trade him for a "top 10 organizational prospect" (Ray, Grisham, Peralta). Personally I really doubt that the Royals could get more than that for 2 months of work even if the guy is pitching absolute lights out. #2 - Trade him now and keep the 7.94 million dollars. Probably could get a role player prospect (Pennington) and fringe prospect (Brown) in return. #3 - Keep him and he repeats last year's performance, either meaning I can't trade him or can still deal him but only get a fringe prospect in return. At best I spend 5.3 million dollars and pick up a Zack Brown type prospect, at worst I can't move him and end up paying him the full 7.94 million. After thinking it over I'd still opt for #2. Well thought out and agree across the board. I would pick option 2...especially from a saving money business perspective, but I can understand gambling a bit and trying to maximize the return if I'm them. I feel like Peralta is probably the best case at the deadline for Herrera unless he's posting like a sub-1 ERA with a Knebel-like k rate.

Um so Michael Chavis=Domingo Santana? Archer=Chavis/Ray/Ortiz? Archer&Santana net a total of 1 top 100 prospect? The Brewers are giving up a decent amount, but the Red Sox aren't giving up enough. If the Rays also got Groome and a small piece from us in addition to all that, it might make sense for them. A 3 team trade with the Red Sox and one of TB, KC, Detroit, Oakland could all make sense, it would help to specifically compare what each team is giving up versus what each team is getting to try and equal out the value.

What's with the whole GM's hanging up on each other thing? I'm sure that's a good way to maintain working relationships with people, hang up on them all the time. Anywho, they might be better served to hope he rebounds and maybe they get more. Hard to imagine us giving up Peralta for 2 months of him though. Cordell was like our 15th best prospect when we traded him, but in all fairness it wasn't that far from trading away Kyle Wren. He was like 25 years old and struggling in AAA, he looked pretty clearly like an AAAA guy. Just because one team traded away an absurd haul for 2 months of Chapman once upon a time doesn't mean 2 months of low end closers/high end setup guys are worth anywhere near that.