KeithStone53151

I wasn't trying to argue that we are better on paper than the Cubs. Even trading for Yelich and signing Darvish or Arrieta probably doesn't accomplish that. But those guys would put us a notch below them, and close enough that we have a very real chance to pass them. I'm not necessarily advocating for those moves, fyi. Guys get hurt, guys regress, guys improve. You don't only try to improve the roster if you can guarantee you'll be the best team on paper come April. I don't see the Rangers or Phillies or Rockies rolling over because the Astros, Nationals, and Dodgers are too good on paper.

It's interesting that you mention depth at the pitching position on the top section to knock down fans who believe the Cubs are in a difficult position but all the players you list on the bottom are all position players you expect to take a jump. Maybe try showing the pitching depth that we are supposed to be scared of if you really want to try making a point. Right, they don't have much for pitching depth and I doubt they have another year where 5 starting pitchers get them through the season. And the pitching that they have(without Darvish) isn't the type of pitching you see winning in October. Arrieta and Davis are gone and Lester is getting older/less effective. And unless Hendricks regains some velocity, teams are going to figure out how to hit his mid 80s garbage. Quintana is the most sure thing they have, but his arm has a lot of miles on it. Maybe he'll be like Verlander or Sabathia where they can pile on basically unlimited innings without significantly regressing, but those guys are the exception not the rule. I'm sure all the cubs starters are projected favorably with shiny WAR numbers that people love so much, but fangraphs is notoriously terrible at projecting regression in older players and at projecting improvement in young players. That's why I say they are built to win in the regular season but not in the post season. They have tons of upside on the offensive side, but not so much on the pitching front. Good hitting beats good pitching, but great pitching beats great hitting.

How do you not think Dubon is a true SS prospect? A little lost on that one. I can understand saying that he might not be ready this season but to just discard him, yeesh. I don't see Dubon as good enough to plug in at SS everyday. Not all that far off from calling Kyle Wren a true outfield prospect. I guess they are both prospects but I don't think we have everyday players in either of them.

Defensively, Dubon is ready now. I don't think his bat will play as a starter - but that's my opinion. Maybe another year of seasoning will help him. The rest of the shortstops are mostly in the lower levels - many of them still teenagers. Meaning they are a long ways off. From all reports Diaz is not a good shortstop. Or even an average one. Same goes for guys like Erceg and Nate Orf. Just because they've played there in the past doesn't mean they should play there in the future. In a pinch they would work - but nothing more. For starters, I highly highly doubt that Arcia would be included in a trade for Yelich. He is probably the least likely player on our entire roster to be traded. That said, IF for whatever reason we did trade Arcia...I doubt the plan would be to fill him from the farm. This would be where trade B and C come in, SS would absolutely have to come from another team. I actually don't think we have a true SS prospect anywhere in the minors, that's probably something that should be addressed either in the draft or in future trades.

I don't think anyone is even remotely implying that...not in the last handful of posts anyways.

I suspect they intended to use some of their excess of position player talent to trade for a starter, but found nobody as interested in those players as they expected. They missed their chance last offseason to sell high on schwarber, I think there's a good chance his bat rebounds but he's still a butcher at any position he plays and really should be DH'ing. I could have seen them trying to trade Happ, Almora, or Caratini but maybe other teams didn't have a ton of interest. I doubt they'd even consider trading Baez or Russell unless it was for someone like Chris Sale, and I don't think Archer qualifies.

Happy to see him in. I know saves are somewhat a junk stat, but it shows longevity of being a dominant reliever.

I ran numbers this morning with arbitration estimates. Their payroll at this point is around 160, and they don't have a 5th starter yet(unless they roll montgomery). Also I'm not sure their CF plan, maybe they roll Happ/Almora/Heyward in CF/RF...not sure. If they add Darvish they are up to probably 185ish, a touch high but not unreasonable based on the last couple years. In 2019 though, 25 million for Darvish puts them to around 195 and they'll lose a bullpen arm(Wilson unless they extend him). I'm not sure how high their payroll can go, but I doubt they can afford $40 million for Harper. 2020(without harper) their payroll will be at roughly 185 and they'll have lost 4 more bullpen arms(cishek, strop, duensing, grimm) and Zobrist. And as has been noted, they have nobody in their farm that can come up and fill those roles for league minimum...so they'll have to dive into free agency or find a way to trade for them. By this point they'll probably have had at least a couple prospects breakout that they can trade, but probably not anybody ready to play at the mlb level. The position player side of their 25 man roster is solid(aside from heyward) and they have their 2 stars, but they have no depth behind it. The roster is built to be able to withstand 1 maybe 2 non-bryant/rizzo injuries before they have to plug in well below replacement level players. Looking at their pitching, their rotation is primarily mid rotation guys that are likely to regress. Darvish would become their best SP if signed. Their bullpen is filled with very solid pitchers in all 8 spots, but none of their relievers are as good as Chapman or Davis. They don't have that guy you can throw in in the 8th with a 1 run lead and nail it down in the playoffs, and don't have the ability to get him without shelling out cash or trading from the 25. Their pitching(and team really) are built to make the playoffs the next year or two IF they can stay relatively healthy, but not to win in the playoffs. Their pitching simply will not match up with the nationals/dodgers.

Matter of fact. Yelichs 2017 stats vs some of the greats: Scherzer- BA .412 OPS 1.415 Kershaw- BA .455 OPS .955 DeGrom- BA .438 OPS .971 Kendrick- BA .400 OPS .928 This is how you win in the playoffs, because these are the type of guys you face in the playoffs. You may be starting to sell me a bit on Yelich. Wow, that's impressive.

Oh man alive, I didn't know Cubs fans had a similar board. They sure spend a lot of time on our board for their level of confidence that everything is going to work out and they are guaranteed the next 3 world series. It's not like their farm system is barren, their payroll will be stretched thin as soon as next season, the astros/dodgers/yankees/nationals exist, and they have significant holes in their roster for an all-in team. Aside from all that, Darvish signing makes them a lock for the next 3 world series rings...or something. Oh and they are going to get Harper apparently, and some are joking about going after Yelich since we are rumored to have interest. They could send the Marlins their 100 best prospects and it still wouldn't get it done. I'll be looking forward to going back to their board next offseason sometime after Harper signs with someone else and laugh at all their puzzled comments and likely cursing of Harper. But, I'll be sure to avoid their board in 2124 when they are due for their next WS ring.

That is a great thing and I will convince myself to like the trade, but imagine the scenario in 3 years if it is Brinson/Burnes/Harrison where Brinson is a good CF with 3 years left, Burnes is a good #2, and Harrison is knocking on the door all while the Cubs run is crumbling. Your reasonable, what are the odds that all three of those guys pan out, assuming all three leave. The closer to MLB you get, the less likely you are to fail. 1 guy at MLB, one in AAA, one in AA. The odds of all of the panning out aren't 100% but they are reasonable. The odds of 2 panning out are for sure better than 50/50.

We we had a rough week out of the break. From August 1 forward we went 31-24, that's without Nelson for a chunk of it. And we had a pretty tough schedule down the stretch. And not even looking at numbers, if you watched the team throughout the season it's abundantly clear that we were better in September than we were in April. It really shouldn't even be up for debate.

Well right, Nelson definitely bogs that down a bit. But it's still pretty clear we were better in the 2nd half as young players became more established. From August 1 onward we were 31-24. Extrapolate that over the year and we are more of a 90-92 win team. We've added already and our young players can still improve. Add in Yelich, a front end starter, and hopefully either Nelson or a productive Burnes at some point during the season and we can compete with the top teams.

Are you copy/pasting your own posts and posting them again? Lol I think you all see the current roster as an 86 win team. That's not really the case. The team to end last season was better than an 86 win team and we've improved on that. You forget the beginning of the season with 2 crappy starters and a closer that got cut in June. The team we had playing down the stretch included a bunch of gassed/banged up players, but it was still better than an 86 win team. As much as I don't want to give up the prospects necessary to get Yelich, he'll significantly improve the team right away. CF was one of the positions we got the least amount of production out of, including down the stretch. It will immediately become one of our best. I don't like WAR, but I have to think we are gaining 3 or so WAR with this move.

Is anyone else included on the Marlins side as part of the offer? Or Yelich only? Or not willing to share yet?

I find it a bit odd to dub him untouchable and then leave him in relief.

/ It sounds like maybe they like our offer and are asking for other final offers to see if other teams are willing to top it...?

You missed the best response, "if you make that offer, you'll hear an instant click on the other end." Apparently GM's hang up on each other constantly...

That would be nuts. One is a proven player with 5 years of control. The other is a prospect with 6 years of control. It's a no-brainer.. Judge and bellinger were mere prospects to start 2017, judge in particular had a dreadful 2016 of limited at bats. Both those guys are more valuable than yelich at this point, and it isn't all that close.

McCalvy quoted it in a tweet of his own, for me that provides significantly more credibility. A trade for Yelich is one of my least desired off-season moves of the possiblities floated to this point. If that is true you really must not like anything. 4 WAR players who play decent defense and are ascending with 370 OBPs and 300 averages with 20 HR and 15 steals must really be terrible baseball players. It's not that I don't like yelich, I just know what the cost is and prefer to use our bullets on pitching rather than a position that is a strength.

One thought I had. If we trade for Yelich, and then have Brinson and Santana lined up in trades with the idea of giving RF to Phillips and bringing in a veteran 4th OF(or stick with Broxton there), that would leave us very left-handed. Maybe Stearns is ok with that, or maybe trade C is Thames+ for Abreu?

I firmly believe Yelich bats leadoff if we trade for him.

How many times has Yelich posted a 30/30 season? Heck how many times has he even done one of those? Brinson is also far and away the superior defender. If Brinson can make enough contact to hit 270-280, he'll be light years ahead of Yelich and a legit superstar. And when has Brinson? I dont understand. Do a bit of prospect research and you'll see that as his upside pretty much everywhere. The tools are there, it's just a matter of hitting enough.

How many times has Yelich posted a 30/30 season? Heck how many times has he even done one of those? Brinson is also far and away the superior defender. If Brinson can make enough contact to hit 270-280, he'll be light years ahead of Yelich and a legit superstar.

He's been a 4.5 WAR player 3 of the last 4 years and is cheap and controlled. He probably becomes our best position player the moment the trade goes through. But is he really worth Brinson + Ortiz + Diaz? I don't see him as that valuable. I personally don't even want to give up Brinson for him. And think about the pitcher we coudl get for that package, or even less than that package. Probably someone more valuable than Yelich... Add in the fact that he cost way more than Brinson over the next few years. I get that $7 million this year and even the increased rates are peanuts to what he's worth, but even this year we lose significant payroll flexibility with this move. It will be more difficult to add starting pitching, also removes other potential trade chips.