KeithStone53151

Just this offseason, rumors of us being interested in Arrieta. Then a day later, the quote below which basically negated the Arrieta rumors. Nonsense rumors are a fairly common occurence. Regarding the team’s rotation needs, Stearns says that the organization’s “market and history” under his stewardship are “a better indicator of the types of moves we’re seeking than some of the external speculation.” That seemingly hints that the organization won’t be chasing high-end free agents, though perhaps some of the top pitchers could still be considered in the right circumstances I've said there's a chance multiple moves happen that would make bringing in Cain a more logical decision. I personally think it's more likely and a more simple explanation that the rumors have a shade of truth but are mostly nonsense.

If this is accurate, I could see getting involved at that price/years arena. That's roughly a similar offer to what they made to Chatwood though, and I think it's safe to say from a production/talent standpoint that Cobb > Chatwood. I have to believe Cobb is getting 4 year offers of at least $12-15 million per at his age/talent level though.

I don't get this after all of the trades you've suggested. You've suggested trading for iffy Danny Duffy, regression candidate Merrifield, or a king's ransom for Chris Archer. But Lorenzo Cain, who is averaging about 4 WAR/year, rumored that he could come at a relative bargain for 3 years, and in which case Santana and/or Broxton and/or Brinson would be dealt for probably TOR pitching...is a no? You wouldn't want Cain/Archer/a good reliever for $25 million/year total minus Santana/Broxton? I think you are generally getting too caught up in WAR and defensive value. While his avg and obp might hover in that general area for the next 4 years, the SB totals and defensive value are likely to keep trending downward as they already are. Cain would still fit well on the team if all those moving parts come together, but unless the asking price comes way down this won't work for us. We'd also be giving up our comp pick to sign him.

Wow, a guy from ESPN knows Milwaukee and Minnesota have baseball teams? Maybe they are turning a corner...

This is a great point. I think our collective frustration about the lack of sexy moves by the Brewers (no Chacin, Gallardo and the rumored Logan deal don't qualify) have made us question what is going on, especially when the Brewers are rumored to be going after areas of strength (OF). To me, this signals there are a ton of moving parts (different trade and free agent signing scenarios) going on behind the scenes. It will take just one move (signing Cain, trading Santana, etc...) to set off a flurry of other moves. I tend to agree there's a very real chance of a ton of moving parts behind the scenes. I'm going to stick with the simplest explanation of...he's most likely doing due diligence and gauging the market to use as leverage in trade talks for Broxton. I would be shocked if Cain is a Brewer again.

Well right absolutely, but I have no interest in Merrifield whether we sign Walker or not. I just don't think he's that good of a player. I don't see how he's much of an upgrade from Sogard or Perez if at all. I doubt he ever touches his SB or HR totals again. He'll probably be a 275/325/380 hitter going forward, which really isn't valuable at all. Merrifield has a track record of nearly 1,000 major league plate appearances. I have a hard time believing his numbers: .286/.324/.437 are fluky though I've long thought that if given a full time job that Perez could produce similar numbers. He took a little step backward last year in my opinion, maybe because all the moving around combined with a full winter ball stretch took a toll and there doesn't seem to be a commitment by Brewer brass to give Hernan an everyday job. But if I can get Merrifield in a package with Duffy who I like as much or more than Archer, then if I'm the Brewers I make this offer: Royals get: Brinson Woodruff Perez Ortiz Diaz Brewers get: Duffy Merrifield Then I go all out and sign Cain and my 2018 lineup and rotation looks like this: Cain Merrifield Shaw Braun Thames Santana Arcia Pina/Vogt Infield backups: Sogard, Villar, Aguilar OF Depth: Phillips Rotation: Anderson, Duffy, Davies, Chacin, one of Guerra, Gallardo, Suter That lineup WAR in 2017 per B-R: 23.9 and everyone is controllable at least through 2019 Rotation WAR in 2017 per B-R: 16.2 (Assumes Suter) and everyone other than Gallardo is controllable through at least 2019, with the top 3 all controllable through at least 2020. Trades that big generally don't happen, I'm not going to weigh in on the value of each side. Back to Merrifield, his career minor league numbers are 274/334/403. His 2015/2016 AAA numbers are relatively in line with that...as is his 2016 MLB stat line of 283/323/392. Then all of a sudden he hits 19 dingers in 2017(10 more than his previous high at any level including PCL) and posts 288/324/460. That 460 is dragging his MLB slugging percentage higher than should be expected going forward. Unless this guy packed on some good muscle or something, I doubt he's all of a sudden going to be a 20 hr guy. Maybe 280/330/400 is a more fair expectation for a couple years, that's still at best a 2nd division starter or 1st division utility guy. I think Sogard and Perez are comparable. I'm not going to do a statistical comp of Sogard as the sample is too small for him, but Perez was 259/289/414 last year and 272/302/428 the year prior and is capable of similar stolen base numbers. Perez has a slightly higher K rate and slightly lower BB rate than Merrifield, but he's within 1 percentage point in both categories over the last 2 years. Also Perez is far more versatile than Merrifield as he can play between below average and above average defense at 7 positions depending on the position, while Merrifield can play 2b and corner outfield...maybe 3b or 1b in a pinch but no CF and no SS. If people like Merrifield at 2b, might as well give Perez the everyday job. There's no reason to trade for this guy.

Salazar has had a lot of elbow issues. With Celeveger emerging I can see why they want to deal him. I think Santana is worth more than h just based on his recent injury history Santana is much better than Bruce as is, and has upside, and is much cheaper. You guys are spot on though that brinson shouldn't be involved in a Salazar deal and Santana has more value than Salazar straight up. They could tack on prospects to the deal, or work a Santana+ for Salazar and Mejia.

I still don't advocate for trading for Yelich, but a lineup of Yelich, Braun, Shaw, Santana, Thames, Pina, 2b, Arcia would be really good. Could be even better if you sign walker and insert in front of Braun. The problem is it would be expensive in prospects and payroll $, wouldn't address pitching, and might not be enough. Plus we lose out on the upside of Brinson/Phillips.

One of the young guys surely won't start there, but could earn their way up to that spot quickly like Villar did in 2016. To start the season it's gotta be 2b with occasionally Thames/Santana there depending on the day. Nothing else really makes sense with current roster construction. Brinson probably has the best chance to rise up quickly and take that spot of all our young players.

Well right absolutely, but I have no interest in Merrifield whether we sign Walker or not. I just don't think he's that good of a player. I don't see how he's much of an upgrade from Sogard or Perez if at all. I doubt he ever touches his SB or HR totals again. He'll probably be a 275/325/380 hitter going forward, which really isn't valuable at all.

If the players can't do better from another team, is it really a low ball offer? Good point. I'll further add, is it really a low ball offer when free agents are asking for almost double what previous comparable contracts dictate they deserve?

Why would Cain sign a two year deal when this is his first and only big contract? Why would a team give up worthwhile value when they had a chance to just beat the Brewers offer? I'm not so sure that Cain is going to get better than a 2 or 3 year deal based on how his market is developing. I still am not interested in him on a 2 year deal, OF is not a position we should be targeting even if we trade Santana and Broxton. We'd be better off rolling out both young guys and bringing in a veteran as the 4th. As much as I hate to say it, a Jon Jay type would make sense in this case.

I doubled back to this site and the comments section out of curiosity. The Royals fans seem to think this is a bad deal for THEM and are convinced they should get Brinson as part of any deal for Duffy. Clearly these guys have no concept of team control, market value, injury history, a guy on a career year, etc...all these other pieces that go into valuing players. I honestly don't know why we would target Merrifield to begin with. We have a guy like him, a left handed version named Sogard. I don't see much of a difference between the two aside from team control and that Sogard can actually draw a walk. And team control isn't as important for players of their caliber...especially considering what we have coming through the pipeline. It's likely that Merrifield will regress enough to not even be tendered a contract at some point during his team control regardless of who he plays for.

No way Santana gets traded for low level prospects or a 2B. Santana has a ton of value. GM's can nitpick his defense if they want to try and gain leverage, but he's still a far better defender than JD Martinez and that guy is gonna get $150 million this offseason. Santana isn't quite as good a hitter as Martinez, but he's fairly close and their overall production likely won't be far off over the next few years.

#3 starters close in on the value of elite relievers, but Hader has the potential to be a frontline starter...which is far and away more valuable than an elite reliever. The pen option is an easy fallback at any time if he fails in the rotation, it's much more difficult to transition from the pen to the rotation later in your career than vice versa. Hader to the rotation is a no brainer decision.

I'm afraid that the Stearns would be hung up on immediately if he offered that up to the Indians. Mejia and McKenzie are two of the best prospects in baseball. Maybe they'd give up those two guys to the Marlins for both Realmuto/Yelich, but no way they are giving them up for Santana and Ponce. Now that I read what I just wrote, I agree, and stand corrected. I would still focus on McKenzie, would that deal work straight-up Santana for McKenzie? McKenzie is probably the one guy in the system that they might deem untouchable. If he was a Brewer, I don't know that I'd want to include him in a deal for Trout or Kershaw much less Santana. He's on track to hit the big leagues at age 22 and has done nothing but shine in his minor league career so far...and he still projects to add more heat to the low 90s he's been throwing at age 19. His off speed and command are surprisingly good for such a young pitcher, and he threw 143 innings last year which is a strong foundation to build on. I'm completely on board with targeting/asking for McKenzie, I'd make that trade 1 for 1 personally. I just don't think he's a realistic target. The more likely target would be Mejia or a pitcher on their mlb roster. I could see a deal for Salazar+.

I think a lot of the rumors going around have a shade of truth but are mostly incorrect. I suspect Stearns is checking in and agents are telling reporters that it's "interest". The rumor on Cain confirms it as signing him is so unlikely. Bringing on Cain could only potentially make sense if we were planning to deal multiple outfielders. Maybe Stearns has trades lined up for Broxton/Santana and really is showing interest in Cain. Far and away more likely is he made a phone call to see the price tag, maybe for use in negotiations for his outfielders. "Hey you can either pay Cain X for X years or trade for Broxton at a fraction of the cost" type conversation. Again, I don't know this with any certainty. But do you all really think with the outfielders currently on the roster that Stearns is seriously interested in Cain? Stuff like this requires reading between the lines.

You make good points, but teams tend to pay a premium for elite talent. Look no further than the haul for Chapman versus the haul for Robertson AND kahnle. Even with archer having a year more control and lower salaries, sale still has far more value to other teams. I personally would be much more inclined to trade a couple top prospects in a package for 3 years of sale than 4 years of archer.

I think the outfielders that would best ease the loss of Santana are Phillips, Brinson, and Broxton. A Santana trade likely means broxton stays put.

It would take more than Domingo Santana to get any of Francisco Mejia/ Carson Kelly/ Chance Sisco/ Jorge Alfaro. Not one of those 4 plus pitching to get DSantana... Now I could see DSantana & Mejia being part of multi player packages for each side in a trade but neither side believes its a fair deal 1 for 1 or 2 for 1/ 1 for 2. You are embarrassingly under valuing Santana if you think he's less valuable than all those players. Santana is a great fit for Cleveland, maybe for Salazar plus some lower tier prospects. If we targeted just prospects, Santana could probably get almost any one of those prospects and possibly multiple.

I agree, but I would add the option of renting a TOR starter. When the time is right, I would have no problem with them pulling the trigger on a Sabathia/Greinke type trade again. In fact, that's why it's so important to keep the farm system as strong as possible. That way you have the pieces to make a deal like that AND still have enough talent left in the system afterwards. Right, there's a time and a place for it. I don't think we are quite ready to do something like that, plus we have a number of pitchers that warrant clearing rotation space for in the near future(Burnes/Woodruff/Hader...MAYBE Ortiz/Peralta...NOT Jungmann/Wilkerson/Suter/Guerra/etc). Based on the way this team is being built, I think the arm or two that puts us over the edge in the right year will more likely be a relief arm than a SP.

I tend to think the Brewers can and will increase payroll beyond the $100 or 110 million mark in future seasons. $150 million might be a stretch, but a consistent $110 with the ability to go to $130ish in competing years is probably realistic. Even with a higher payroll threshold, we can't afford to take on a $20 million bad contract. That would cause serious problems in future years.

Either way they will overpay. If you look at Cobb vs. Archer, they are actually very close performance wise. One has a 3.50 career ERA and a 3.68 caree FIP and the other has a 3.63 career ERA and a 3.46 FIP pitching in the same park. Their career WHIP is nearly identical. Archer is the flashier of the two because he strikes out a lot. I'd roll the dice on Cobb, because if he fails or gets hurt, he can be replaced with a minimum salary young arm. If Archer fails or gets hurt, they'd have one or two less young arms around to replace him. Cobb is another year removed from surgery and thus some progression from a decent 2017 is reasonable. They actually aren't all that close performance-wise. One guys consistently posts high inning totals while the other you'd be lucky to get 160 innings from. Those 40-50 innings might be filled with someone like Wilkerson/Jungmann and a likely low 5s ERA.

Not that we couldn’t draft/acquire sign more, but chances are that the depth will not look so great there in 2 years. We’ll just say for sake of example that Ray and Stokes never make the majors. Brinson’s a 2 WAR guy, Phillips is a 4th OF, and Broxton is dealt. Now what do you have for your 2020 and beyond outlook? Not much. Maybe Harrison is the bust of the group and we luckily trade him away, but I just won’t etch the depth in stone. I don’t think this list has several sure-fire All Stars in it, so one could argue keeping as many as possible may still be advantageous. I’m not arguing against dealing from a position of depth to fill another position, but I’m just saying the “well, we’ve got a bunch of em” argument usually does not end up becoming true. You make a great point regarding OF prospects. We might feel more comfortable trading someone like Harrison at the deadline if other prospects bounce back or one of Phillips or brinson establish themselves to some degree. A couple years ago, I felt fantastic about our bullpen depth at all levels. A few trades later(good trades mind you) I'm clamoring to pay sticker price for a high end setup guy because we need it. The same could easily happen with our outfield situation if we make a couple trades and certain prospects don't pan out.

The Cobb route wouldn't be a wise route to go. This decision would a Melvin standard operating procedure type move. Lohse, Suppan, Garza...we know how these deals go. Cobb in addition to being even more expensive than those 3 guys carries more injury risk. No thanks. By the time his ask got down to a range that would in my opinion work for the Brewers, he'd already be signed with the Cubs or someone else.