KeithStone53151

To be fair, the Cardinals need to make quite a few moves to get better while the Cubs are in a different place than the Brewers. The Brewers always keep their specific intentions close to the vest, we might be just as involved in the cardinals on a lot of guys and it just isn't being reported. And there have been very few major signings. We've seen a handful of relievers come off the market, but there are tons of bullpen options and the ones I'm most interested in are still available. I just want some stuff to happen, I was excited for this week and it's been a major dud so far.

Heyman is disputing busters report. Hopefully he's right

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/940749845094109184 If this is true, that's very disappointing.

This is certainly a nice argument to have. A few years ago, it would have been no question that Hader would be starting, because the team simply wouldn't even be close to having better options. And I won't argue that he was downright dominant as a reliever. My argument is simply where he's going to provide the most value, and looking at it very simplistic, quality starting pitching is always more valuable than quality relief pitching. Is it, though? I mean if you have a Chris Sale type, then yeah of course, but I think that's far too optimistic of an immediate projection for Hader. Realistically, he's probably capped around 150 innings next year. So which is more valuable, 80 high leverage innings of a 2.00 ERA guy, or 150 starter innings of a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy? I'm honestly curious and think it's a good topic of discussion. I really don't know the answer. I do know our pen with and without Hader in 2017 was a night and day difference, and we don't have anyone currently to replace the role he provided. Hader in the rotation would absolutely mean we need massive upgrades in the pen, but that's something we should be upgrading regardless. I think most on here are in agreement on adding at least 1 high end arm to the pen, I personally want 2 high end arms and a solid lefty. Back on topic, if I knew I was getting 150 starter innings at that ERA...it's not even a question in my mind that you take the starter innings. I think most on this board would agree. 150 starter innings at that ERA at age 24, he'd likely build on that and push towards the 180-190 range the following year. At that point you're looking at a budding star SP. Let's look at it from an acquisition perspective. Would teams give up more for a low 3s ERA SP at age 24 with electric stuff and 5 years of team control(assume after this year) or for a low 2s ERA LH relief pitcher that can go multiple innings, has electric stuff, and 5 years team control. Both have a ton of value, I'm taking the SP and not thinking twice about it. Those on the board that want Hader in the pen probably don't find it likely that he posts a low 3s ERA in the rotation. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on that.

Good point on TB, that is a very smart front office. We aren't going to get him cheap by any stretch if we target him.

I couldn't agree more. Aside from the big 2 moves(Stanton/Ohtani) there have been a complete small trade and a couple relief pitchers signed. There are so many big FA and trades that will inevitably happen, I'm not sure what the holdup is.

I would love to see Hader start a piggyback with T. Williams after. I can't imagine being an opposing hitter and seeing the filth coming from both sides during the game. Throw K. Medeirois in for the save to really confuse everyone. If you are going for pure confusion, need to put Suter in there somewhere. Imagine trying to hit 86 with offspeed in the 70s after seeing 95-99 for 8 innings?

The gauntlet bobble is a cool idea, as is mayor of ding-dong city. I feel like they had a ton of creative new ideas this year, well done Brewers.

I wasn't suggesting that teams don't stack righties. Of course they do. I was saying that if Hader was truly a 4-inning starter, CHL has a point that he's maybe best used against a lefty part of a lineup in close games. I also was noting that teams can push his pitch count/hit him harder than the "he generally went 6 in the minors" thing. Yep. Clearly he would still pitch against lots of rhb's, especially since teams would use ph's against him. But you would be making it harder for teams to game-plan by not having his outings be so regular and predictable. You could also use him judiciously against teams with lots of rhb's and then get longer outings out of him against teams with good lhb's, an advantage that's much harder to get when you are basically stuck pitching a guy just because it's his turn in the rotation regardless of whether he's a good match-up against that team. You could probably utilize other top notch lefty SP in a similar manner and have them achieve better results than pitching every 5th day. Those of us that want him to start see a potential star, and it's really now or never as to whether he's going to be a SP going forward. A bullpen fallback doesn't go away because he opens in the rotation.

Goodbye farm, hello window. I got the impression Stearns is trying to avoid the window theory and be consistently competitive.

Not to stray too far off topic, but I remember watching CC face Pujols in his prime for the first time. I had never ever seen Pujols look bad in an at bat up until that point, but man did CC make him look terrible. Only premier arms can make the best hitters look bad. The fact that Hader can do it speaks volumes to his ability.

That's Boros being Boros. Of course he's pumping up his guy. That's his job - and he's good at it. He can ask for whatever he wants - it doesn't mean anyone will give him a deal that long and at those dollars. Well right, I could ask for $100 million to pitch for someone. I feel like in the past, Boras has at least been realistic in his asking price. That he'd at least have a comp or some sort of support for his ask. If Arrieta were 27 or 28, then fine I can understand that ask. 7/200 wouldn't be ridiculous, he might not get it but it wouldn't be ridiculous. But Arrieta will be 32. $200 million is likely at least a 7 or 8 year deal as nobody is paying $30 million plus for him, that's more than Kershaw got. I think it would be more reasonable for him to say 7/175 as his ask but eventually settle in the 130 range on 5 years or 150 range on 6. I feel like every GM is rolling their eyes and saying "hard pass" on such a ridiculous ask. But what do I know, I'm not a super agent.

Look at Strasburg, Kershaw, Verlander, Sale, etc when they first came up on fangraphs. Those guys were 60-70% fastball initially. Kershaw was basically a 2 pitch pitcher in 2008 and 2009. Those ratios changed when they fully developed, but most pitchers still throw the fastball 50-60% of the time.

If this is true, the hardest of all passes. He must be looking for a 7 or 8 year deal, Boras must be nuts.

We won't know that until we give him a chance at this level. Hader most commonly had 5+ inning starts in the minors that many are referencing and he only threw 80-85 pitches in those starts, if given 100 pitches to work with he'd likely go 6+...which is plenty. There will absolutely be times that Hader and Woodruff have shorter starts(also will be times that Anderson/Davies have shorter starts), that's why we'll likely have an 8 man bullpen. Minor league teams do not have as much ability to work a pitch count like Hader can be worked, though. Also, minor league teams could have lefties in the lineup because they're trying to develop them. Major league teams will stack the lineups with righties. Also, a guy that doesn't have varied stuff like Hader could get hit even harder the 2nd/3rd time around as CHL said. Fangraphs has Hader's fastball at 94-95, changeup at 85-86, slider at 80-81. That's plenty of variability in his stuff. And generally being concerned that Hader is going to reach a pitch limit around 4 innings is a bit ridiculous. Some guys might work the count, some guys he'll strike out on 3 pitches. He had plenty of 8-10 pitch innings out of the bullpen, especially in the last month. He'll face more righties in the rotation, but guys like Votto/rizzo will still play against him. There are absolutely concerns with Hader, he's not a finished product yet. Those of us that want him to start think a 23 year old pitcher with electric stuff and significant major league success can improve and succeed in a SP role.

My assumption is that the lack of activity or serious rumors surrounding Milwaukee and the reliever market means that we are anticipating filling those roles with internal guys, Williams being at the top of the "step up to the plate" list. I'd be happy with a veteran 7th inning guy to supplement ... but am fully anticipating a handful of big league invite types to battle it out with the Wang, Williams, Wilkerson, Barnes, etc group to earn jobs. I also have a feeling the Brewers are comfortable for at least one more season with Hader as a set up man IF they don't feel comfortable with their options in the pen ... so there isn't much panic to sign a big contract or name because a Jeffress, Hader, Knebel final three should suffice just fine. Just my hunch. The Brewers are very good at keeping their plans close to the vest. It's only when we work with certain teams(or certain agents) with big mouths that rumors surface. Think about the trades we've made, and how they've basically been done deals before any rumors surfaced. Last year nobody had a clue we were talking with Boston, and sure enough Thornburg gets sent over there.

We won't know that until we give him a chance at this level. Hader most commonly had 5+ inning starts in the minors that many are referencing and he only threw 80-85 pitches in those starts, if given 100 pitches to work with he'd likely go 6+...which is plenty. There will absolutely be times that Hader and Woodruff have shorter starts(also will be times that Anderson/Davies have shorter starts), that's why we'll likely have an 8 man bullpen.

Because in the history of the MLB, a player has never had a bad season to only bounce back the following year. I get that you hate him because he took away your precious Scooter Gennett but you definitely go off the deep end pretending he has no value and that there is no chance he could rebound and be a good player for the Brewers this upcoming season. Your judgment is clouded on this one quite a bit. You may turn out to be right that Villar just stinks and the Brewers should send him to Timbuktu but the fact that you can't even see the other side of this really shows something. Good points here. The Brewers should be open to upgrades at 2b, and maybe they do go with someone else. But if they do, then Villar shoudl be gone. He shoudln't be a bench player for us.

This would have played better in my mind had you not tried to compare it to the Badgers going in with the gameplan of dropping Hornibrook back 50 times because they were stacking against the run lol. I disagree with it. I think you let your special arms like Hader try to be as dominant for as long as they possibly can in a game. Being a starter, he can do that. I'm in the camp that believes he's our best chance, in a long.. long time, to actually produce TOR numbers. We've waited so long to have an arm as special as his and for us to limit him at the age that he is at just makes no sense to me. Could be looking at the next Randy Johnson. And if that fails(in 2-3 years), then stick him back in the pen and use him there. , well done sir.

That's actually not true at all. The Brewers won by more than 6 runs 3 times in September, and Williams pitched 2 of them. The one he didn't pitch is the game we scored 8 runs in the 8th inning against Miami, they had wilkerson finish that one off.

Oh, my. What? That's some solid analysis right there. You'd be doing teams a favor by starting Hader. His stuff wouldn't be so lethal the 2nd or 3rd time you saw him in a game. He'd also face tons of rhb's. Very few teams lack for rhb's and it's the easier side of a platoon to fill. They'd be lining up their rhb's for Hader's starts. It would be a waste of what makes him great. So Hader is a situational lefty now?

I disagree. The team does not have the starting pitching depth to justify keeping what is probably their most talented arm in the pen. Having Hader in the pen isn't going to matter if you don't have the starters to get to him. If they acquire a couple good starters, then you can make the argument that Hader should stay in the pen. Can you have 1 dominating pitch and nothing else and truly be the most talented? He has the biggest upside but if he doesn't develop his secondary stuff to get some strikes out of it he's not going to be more valuable in the rotation than he is in the pen. I dont think his issues allow him to be a productive starter as is and I dont think those issues require him to start to improve. So I'm with the other guy that sees no reason for him to start yet. He could come out this year and dominate. His secondary stuff could become useful and his pitches per inning could drop in his work in the pen and if that happens... next year he's gets a rotation slot. But a fastball, as nasty as his is, is still not enough to start and go 6-7ip. It seems like every month or so the anti-hader bandwagon starts back up again, I explain why the Hader haters are blatantly wrong in their assessment of him, and it gets ignored until the same tired arguments pop back up. "He only has one pitch", and "he has no command", and "his innings limit". Anyone who says Hader has one dominating pitch and nothing else must have never watched him pitch, read a scouting report, or done anything other than look at the % of pitches he threw on fangraphs in a bullpen role. He has the big fastball, but he got plenty of swings and missed with his offspeed offerings...and was much better at throwing them where he wanted as he settled into his role. Every prospect grades site said his slider was a plus pitch and his changeup has been improving significantly prior to him graduating. And the primary reason he threw so many fastballs is because guys could not catch up. If the hitter at the plate proves he can't catch up to your fastball, do you throw offspeed and make it easier for him? Look up some other top notch starting pitchers(Kershaw/Verlander/Strasburg) on fangraphs, their first few seasons they threw a pretty high number of fastballs(some in the 70% range). Later in their careers they got more comfortable with their offspeed and threw the fastball less. Hader won't be a 2's ERA guy out of the rotation right away, but I think he'll be better than most of you think. I'm more concerned about his ability to maintain his stuff late into starts and potential innings limits(though this can be easily dealt with). I'm not at all concerned about whether his offspeed stuff is any good or about him improving control. His offspeed stuff is very very good, and his control has improved significantly in his short time in the majors and should only get better. I think the expectations for him are a bit unrealistic. Again, look at the guys I referenced above. None of them were finished products at age 23. They finished developing at the major league level and became stars. Hader is the only guy in the system with that type of ceiling...might be the only pitcher we've had in the system with this type of ceiling since Sheets, and many of you want to tank his value and throw him in a bullpen role. I personally think the Brewers already know they plan to use Hader as a starter next season unless a couple big time starters fall into their laps at reasonable prices(which is highly unlikely). I think they aren't telling anyone in case that happens, and also because they don't really need to. Maybe it helps them with negotiations having Hader as a potential pen option, even though he really isn't. The Brewers intentions are mere speculation on my part, I have nothing to back that.

Williams for me has always had an inside track on the 8th rotational spot in the bullpen. The guy that shuttles from AAA to MLB to keep an arm fresh. He has options, so it makes sense. I'm hopeful he wins that job to start the season and performs well. He could solidify a spot in the pen that way. For me, the pen is Knebel/Jeffress/Barnes/Suter/Williams/3 FA. We should have 4-5 good back end relief options, Suter for long relief, Jeffress/Williams would likely open in the mop up type role but could win better chances with good performance. To your point directly, I don't think most are overlooking him. I think people see we have money to spend and hope we spend significantly on the bullpen and make that more of a strength, but keep one spot open for an additional home grown talent.

So how about Domingo Santana for A’s LHP Sean Manaea? That framework does make sense for both teams, but I would prefer to target Manaea with other players if we were going to go that route. For me, Santana has more value than Manaea. I'd prefer to keep Santana and try packaging up players with Broxton to get Manaea if we are interested in him. I think a trade for Manaea would make sense for both teams. We have a lot to offer the Athletics, and they should have a good feel for our system from our deadline push for Gray.

I completely agree. I anticipate them trading for someone as I get the impression they want to bring in 2 OF. So someone like Bruce(no QO attached) could make sense if they want a lower cost/lower caliber option in RF...I assume to platoon to some degree with Pence. They also could look at McCutchen in CF if they want a more proven, higher caliber player in CF. So the Giants do have options available other than our guys, but I would be very surprised if they didn't bring in at least one of the two outfielders they want via trade.