KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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Stanton's Value
KeithStone53151 replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Reportedly the giants offered their top 4 prospects. No mention of panik, but that's a better offer than previously reported -
I have to think with Knebel, Barnes, possibly(but probably not) Hader, and whoever else we bring in...Jeffress will be a very low leverage situation guy at least initially. If we bring back Swarzak and 2 other quality relief arms, do you think Jeffress is going to get high leverage appearances over those guys? The Houser/Williams/Derby crew likely will all rotate through the 8th spot in the bullpen and get chances at the big league level. The $ for Jeffress are low enough that we could cut Jeffress at any time and not be significantly hampered. And bringing him in isn't going to stop us from signing 2-3 guys. At the moment, we have only Knebel/Barnes/Jeffress locked into the bullpen. Suter is likely, some think Hader will be there...but only 3 guys locked in and we likely will roll with 8. I also think you generally discount Jeffress as a pitcher. Sure he's losing a little velocity, but he still can hit mid 90s consistently. He's also developing that split fingered pitch and threw it 16% of the time last year after hardly throwing it at all previously. Having that pitch should make the velocity he has play up a bit in theory. Plenty of guys reinvent themselves to some degree later in their career as their velocity dips.
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I favor a L-R-L-R. Splitting Braun and Santana & Shaw and Thames is necessary in my opinion. Seeing that Braun and Shaw are likely locked in at 3-4, your options are putting Santana and Thames at 5-6 or Thames at 2 and Santana at 5. I would be good either way, but would require the splitting of the L-R if I were Counsell. Counsel showed a tendency to do that as well, especially earlier on before September rolled around and expanded rosters allowed us to use virtually all LH hitters vs RH starters and vice versa.
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Mikolas to the Cards - 2/$15.5
KeithStone53151 replied to bill hAll Star's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Me either, though I fully expect him to post a sub 3 era now that he signed with the Cardinals. -
I'm a fan of making guys earn their way up the order(barring a Braun/Bryant/Fielder type hitter). Arcia should stick to the 8 spot until his hitting improves. I would be more inclined to have Brinson/Phillips and Villar/Sogard in the 1-2 in some order in your scenario of Thames hitting 6th, but I think he's going to hit 2nd like he did this year when he plays. Against LH pitching on days he sits out, I could see Santana or Brinson moving up to 2 with Aguilar hitting 5 or 6. By the end of the year, I expect one of Brinson/Phillips to have earned a more significant slot in the batting order. At the same time, I expect Villar to be cemented into the leadoff role by June with Sogard as strictly a utility guy/bench bat.
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Daniel Norris is a guy I would have some interest in as a post-hype type arm that could be available. As I recall, he was the centerpiece in the David Price deal. He has struggled with his command but working with Derek Johnson may help to alleviate some of those issues. Would not even begin to know what the Tigers would be looking for but would a trade from depth (OF - Keon Broxton, Corey Ray-type) be enough? I would certainly do either of those players straight up as I believe Norris has the stuff to be a solid SP if he could ever control it. Norris dealt with a lot of injury issues as well last year, could explain some of the control issues. He was very highly regarded coming through the minors though. Definitely an interesting name as a buy-low candidate.
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This is a good point. That's part of why I think it will be tough to trade Duffy. It doesn't make sense for the Royals to give him away for salary relief, but I'm not sure how many teams are going to give up substantial prospects to pay a mid rotation starter a market value contract. There are only so many pitchers available though and many teams that need pitching, and there's no guarantee he's even willing to come to Milwaukee. It's also no guarantee that Lynn signs for less, the market for SP may push his salary higher than it might have been last year or 2 years ago. Duffy might be a guy that teams look at that miss out on the Lynn/Cobb tier, that makes the most sense to me. I'd consider him getting traded at all this year to be unlikely.
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I imagine the heart of the order will continue to be Thames, Braun, Shaw, Santana in the 2-5. We probably start the season with 2b position leading off, unless we make a significant position player roster adjustment. Arcia will probably continue to hit 8th unless he starts really hitting. 6-7 is some combo of CF and C, I imagine C will hit 6 more often than CF. That's at least how I imagine it starting. I could see CF taking over the leadoff spot quickly if Phillips or Brinson start to deserve it.
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Mike Minor signs with Rangers; 3-years/$28M
KeithStone53151 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Him competing for a starting gig and actually starting are 2 different things. I'm very curious what kind of deal he got. It won't necessarily tell us what we should expect to pay for other bullpen guys as I assume minor signed for a bit more than expected since they intend on having him start. -
In theory, that makes him a clear #2. Only in theory would a guy who only once logged more than 150 innings and never made more than 26 starts be a #2. He's got some value but part of what KC would be getting back is a pretty substantial salary obligation off their books. He's a realistic target though and Brewers have the chips to get him though I'm inclined to hold on to Burnes. I would think going after Duffy or a long term SP option likely means Burnes is included in the package. We have 4 slots filled, Duffy would make 5, Nelson's return would make 6. Obviously injuries happen, but that doesn't leave room for Burnes. And that's not even to speak of Ortiz/Peralta who could be ready by end of year.
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He's a notch below them from a talent/results standpoint, more injury risk, and $. He has 4 years, $60 million left on his deal. He's also only entering his age 29 season, so we'd be paying him through age 32. I don't hate the idea of pursuing Duffy, but doing so takes a rotation spot away from the next crop of starters coming up(Burnes/Ortiz/Peralta). I would be more inclined to make a run at Duffy if we could also get Herrera in a package deal. Making a run at Duffy likely would mean dealing one of those 3 arms. I don't think I want to go that route, it depends on the specific package. I'm not super familiar with Duffy though, I'm curious other opinions on him.
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I'm good with San Diego or Seattle, those would be preferred. I also wouldn't mind the Rangers. No Cubs, no Dodgers for sure.
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Flip Suter and Hader, and I think you're right for 2018. That said, I think if Suter doesn't do the dual-shuttle he did in 2016/2017 (Milwaukee to AAA to Milwaukee/starter to bullpen and back), I think he could stretch out and be a quality pitcher. He had some flashes before that rotator cuff strain. He averaged six innings a start in the month of July, and against the Cubs on the 28th, he went seven innings on 82 pitches. Josh Hader has light years more upside than Suter. I can't imagine them not giving him a look in the rotation. Suter makes way more sense in the marco estrada role than a rotation spot. He gets it done with smoke and mirrors, along with plus command. I'm not sure he has a single pitch that would grade out as even average. That only works until guys have seen it enough and figure out how to crush his soft stuff.
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That Jeffress contract is really a good value. The only downside is Counsell pitching him a lot and he earns incentives if he isn't really really decent. I don't see why you don't try to keep both, Hughes wasn't going to break the bank. Get rid of Drake. I hope them not keeping both is a sign they intend to aim high for FA bullpen help. Swarzak and Reed for example would both be much better than Hughes, and those 2 plus a lefty(Duke) is what I'm hoping for.
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bump again to keep near the top. Pinning this to the top would be helpful.
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Stanton's Value
KeithStone53151 replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Moore has been a bad pitcher since he stopped throwing his slider, so unless he starts throwing that again, I’m out. I could see them trying to get out of half of that or something if a team would bite. I wonder if the Marlins would be taking on Moore and/or Pence in the deal. It’s interesting because they’re clearly all in yet again and are 3-time luxury tax offenders so they’d owe big time...but they’re kinda all-in, so would they really want to give away a solid pitcher in Samardzija? That’ll be interesting. I’d have been all over absorbing his contract if so. I'm not sure on the exact luxury tax rules, but I'd think if you are gonna go over...might as well go over big like int'l signing a few years back where teams completely disregarded the rules and signed like crazy 1 year and just didn't do any signing the next 2. -
that is literally what is happening. I think it's implied that people know they could just cut Jeffress anyway. It's the fact that he's likely to be on the team instead of Hughes that we don't like, and rightfully so. It's not the actual money. We know it's not our money. We just want them to improve the bullpen and we think Jeffress is going to continue to be a liability. I'm honestly not a fan of Hughes as a pitcher. His stats make him seem very solid, but it was tough to watch him pitch last year. He basically had 2 pitches, sinker/slider. He was extremely wild with both pitches, to the point that I'm not sure he had any idea where they were going. I wouldn't feel comfortable using him late in a game. Which brings me to my next point that he also was primarily used in low leverage situations. He wasn't the guy going in to face Bryant or Votto with the game on the line. He was used moreso in blowout games, which are a bit better of opportunities to have success. I'm not trying to argue that Hughes is a terrible pitcher. He's decent, probably more of a 4 ERA guy than the numbers he's posted. I personally want to aim higher with the rest of the spots. And I like what Jeffress offers more than what Hughes offers. He's wild but not as bad as Hughes. I like that he's working on an additional offering that I'm hoping will help make up for a velocity dip as he ages.
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Hard not to like this signing. He's been very solid in a brewers uniform. It's low $ and very low risk as it isn't guaranteed. If jefress looks like trash in any of the next 3 springs, he can be cut. If he's doing ok and Taylor Williams is lighting the world on fire in spring... he can be cut. If jefress finds something in this split finger pitch or other means of becoming a low 2s era pitcher, we have 2 option years that will be easy decisions. To the guy mentioning incentives, I hope he hits every incentive and we pay him the full 2 million. It probably would mean he's worth 10 million or more and we paid him 3.75. I also generally like the Stearns philosophy of creating competition. Jeffress isn't being given a roster spot and can compete with the potential shuttle service arms for a spot in spring, 3 way battle at catcher for both roster spots and PT, 3 guys battling for CF and potentially reps in the corners, 2b is likely an open competition between villar and sogard, hader and woodruff are probably penciled in but not guaranteed rotation spots. Heck arcia might feel pressure of competition with sogard taking so many starts at the end of last year. I love the philosophy, I think it's a big reason so many guys took steps forward last year
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I don't understand this decision by the cubs. Unless he's secretly a wildly bad locker room guy or something. The stuff is nasty, he will definitely be signed to a significant deal. I personally want to see 2 signings in the pen. One I want to be high caliber(addison reed), but the other spot id be ok with rondon.
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They are not. At least not for the packages that have been offered here. I believe there is not 1 player on the Brewer roster or in the Brewer farm system that if offered ALONE would be able to get Stroman ALONE or even Stroman plus something else. The Blue Jays (with Mark Shapiro & Ross Atkins) would be needing something more. After drawing over 3 million fans this year the Jays are looking to remain relevant for at least 1 or 2 more years (until other contract start expiring). IF they can finally keep Aaron Sanchez healthy again, Strohman & Sanchez create a very strong top of the order to face any opponent in the AL. Stroman probably makes more sense as a deadline target then this off season due to the reasons outlined above. I also think it would be fair to ask for something between the sale and Quintana deals in return. Whether we should pay that is a different question
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Spring Training 2018, Ticket Prices?
KeithStone53151 replied to BrewCrewForever's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The $40 was at Oakland's stadium after fees. I agree Maryvale is definitely one of the lowest cost tickets in the area. -
Why do you like Ortiz better than Burnes? Ortiz comes with more risk due to his conditioning issues, but has always had better stuff and projects to closer to a #2/3 than Burnes.
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Stanton's Value
KeithStone53151 replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
That's crazy. Trading a league MVP for two fringe-to-outside top 100 prospects and a pretty decent 2b. Would have thought Heliot Ramos would have to thrown in there as the young prospect with really high upside. The Giants are also trading for the right to pay Stanton $290 million. It's not quite as simple as you made it sound... -
Good stuff. I hope you are right on the Rangers. I'm eyeing up Hamels for a deadline rental/playoff push guy if we are in the race again.
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Trent Clark for Trent Grisham
KeithStone53151 replied to patrickgpe's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I'm betting that Trent Grisham is better than Trent Clark. I think it would do him some good to hang back and (hopefully) rake against slightly worse competition for the first half this year...rather than being pushed to AA with most of the rest of the team.