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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    I am a bit curious how he has a 70 grade arm for phillips and 80 grade for Harrison. Also I've been under the impression that both Harrison and Brinson have more speed than ray, yet ray grades higher. Those are a couple more easily measurable issues I have with these rankings. Overall good stuff though, I liked his insights into certain players...especially peralta.
  2. KeithStone53151
    Calhoun is a GG RF, so I think Ohtani will be relagated to the DH role with a couple of spot starts in the outfield (unless they trade Calhoun). Looks like old Albert will be limping out to play 1B as of right now. Upton and Calhoun can occasionally DH as well. Just because a guy is a good defender doesn't mean he can't DH.
  3. KeithStone53151
    I see the same, glad it wasn't the cubs.
  4. KeithStone53151
    You severely discount his steals, but yes I'd give that up. I don't think Ponce will be a major leaguer.
  5. KeithStone53151
    Looks like Torres is heading to Miami as well. I'd be more excited about him than Neidert if I was Miami.
  6. KeithStone53151
    In fairness, this guy is a fairly low ceiling pitcher. He kinda feels like Zach Davies best case scenario.
  7. KeithStone53151
    Neidert is heading to Miami. Wow, I thought I might be a touch high with Carlson.
  8. KeithStone53151
    Maybe 1b? You can plug in anyone at 1st. I'm very curious the return, I'm expecting maybe Carlson and a lower minors guy. Nothing too crazy.
  9. KeithStone53151
    I wouldn't have hated signing Chatwood, the price is a bit steep in my opinion though. I do hate the Cubs getting him as he has potential to be good. And pretty much anything the Cubs do I'm going to find a reason to hate by default.
  10. KeithStone53151
    It's easier for them, but not quite that easy as their payroll issues have been noted.
  11. KeithStone53151
    I don't think they were targeting those guys, but I disagree with that. With this signing, and depending on the per year payout, the Cubs will be roughly $140 million payroll for 2018. Plenty of room left under the luxury tax threshold for Arrieta/Lynn plus a closer, bullpen arm, backup catcher and backup CF. The Cubs have about $40m left on their budget. That means they have to sign a closer at a maximum of $15m a year, another bullpen piece at about $8m a year and a backup catcher at about $2m a year. That leaves the Cubs about $15m for another starting pitcher and I don't believe that gets them Arrietta or Lynn. It would get them Cobb or any other starter on the market but not Lynn or Arrietta. i think Cobb projects to get similar to Lynn, while Arrieta projects to get significantly more. They could always go a bit cheaper on the bullpen arm and/or backload a couple deals. Backloading would probably be a bit silly in the long run considering all the new guys hitting arbitration and/or getting arbitration raises next year, but who knows with that front office
  12. KeithStone53151
    Aside from his contract year velocity uptick, Chatwood had TJ a couple years ago and is an undersized RH pitcher. Definitely a candidate to either wear down or get injured every season. I feel like the Cubs signed him with the intent of making him the number 5 starter. I think they'll target somebody better by some means, and the most likely route would probably be trading from the MLB roster.
  13. KeithStone53151
    I don't think they were targeting those guys, but I disagree with that. With this signing, and depending on the per year payout, the Cubs will be roughly $140 million payroll for 2018. Plenty of room left under the luxury tax threshold for Arrieta/Lynn plus a closer, bullpen arm, backup catcher and backup CF.
  14. KeithStone53151
    He also had a big time velocity uptick in a known contract year and in his prime. Maybe that velocity stays, or maybe he isn't working as hard this offseason. He'll probably be a high 3s ERA guy with the Cubs in their pitcher friendly conditions and plus infield defense behind him.
  15. KeithStone53151
    BOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!
  16. KeithStone53151
    Addison Reed is significantly better and a year younger, though he is RH which hurts value. Overall, I kinda figured Reed would find a 4 year deal. 2016 is bad for comps as it was closers and 1 year deals for the most part. Darren O'Day signed after his age 32 season for 4/31, but he was also coming off 4 years in a row of ERA under 2.3. Joakim Soria got 3/25 and Madsen got 3/22. Soria is probably a better comp for Reed, but he signed after his age 31 season. Reed being so young makes him likely to get a 4 year deal, which will cover ages 29-32. As far as AAV, 2 years ago the top setup guys were getting 7-8/year. Minor just got a shade over 9, but tough to say how that will impact relievers as he isn't going to be used as a reliever. He apparently had 4/30 type offers, which lines up with the 7-8 million per year. Reed being a touch better might get 8-9, so 4/36 is probably his max. But if offers are similar he might prefer a different team or a closing gig for similar $, so we might have to shell out a touch more than the next guy to win a guy like Reed.
  17. KeithStone53151
    Dustin Houle is back
  18. KeithStone53151
    Fangraphs has him at 96.5 on the season, that's a bit better than moderately hard. And it was higher out of the bullpen. And his sinker has always had a good amount of movement, so saying no movement is absolutely false. And he throws more good sliders than you give him credit for but his slider doesn't have as much movement(especially late movement) as you'd like. He also only really has the 2 pitches. Hence why his OPS against RHB career is .722 while .835 against LHB career.
  19. KeithStone53151
    You can't just look at career numbers when looking at a pitcher. Wily is clearly trending the wrong way at this point. That said, I sure hope we are aiming higher than Brent Suter to start the year. I'm happy to have him fill in from the LR spot at points during the season. Maybe an opportunity presents itself where he ends up in the rotation a significant chunk of the season and makes the most of it. That's the only way guys with such fringy tools end up making it in the bigs. At this point, I prefer to aim higher though.
  20. KeithStone53151
    Yep. Giving unproductive hitters the most at-bats is dumb. That goes both for trying to have speed and contact at the top of the lineup and for moving your best hitters to 5 or 6 because they're "run-producers". Look through this thread and you see Arcia, Sogard, Villar, Brinson, and Phillips all over the top of the order. Thames, Santana, Shaw, and Braun need the most ab's, period. Despite the optimism some people have for the other guys, even if they live up to the upper end of their projected numbers, they probably aren't much above .800 OPS guys next year. Those other 4 could easily rock .900 or better though. I tend to agree. If you have a good speed guy that can get on base a ton and be productive, then it makes all the sense in the world to bat them leadoff and have power guys in the 2-5 spots. We don't exactly have that. Villar could be that guy(he was in 2016), so could Brinson. But they need to prove it first. Villar proved it from the bottom of the order in 2016 and moved up quickly. I fully expect Sogard or Villar to start the season in the leadoff spot, that doesn't necessarily mean it's the right call. I could easily be convinced to roll with something like Thames, Braun, Santana, Shaw, Pina, Brinson/Phillips, Sogard, Arcia...that wouldn't really be an educated guess at what I think the lineup will be, just wishful thinking.
  21. KeithStone53151
    Call me greedy, but I want 2 pitchers in that caliber. No reason with our payroll flexibility that we can't get 2 high end setup guys.
  22. KeithStone53151
    Some Indy ball team might let him play, but I doubt a club signs him even to a minor league contract
  23. KeithStone53151
    I'm assuming sarcasm in this. It seems your point would be something like, guys need to earn their way to the top/middle of the order and it won't be given to them?
  24. KeithStone53151
    The Royals(or any rebuilding team) are a very logical destination for a guy like Wily. A change of scenery candidate. The stuff he throws is good(good velocity), he needs to develop a 3rd pitch and improve control/consistency. It's probably fairly unlikely that he succeeds in KC and provides any value, but then at the very least he'd be helping them tank for a draft pick. Best case scenario would be some combination of the wake-up call/change of scenery/pitching coach change/etc leading to significant improvement and a flip for prospects candidate. I can see the argument against putting an old, failed prospect in the rotation in favor of young guys. That only works if you have enough capable young guys to fill the rotation/bullpen. I'm not sure if they intend to have him start or not, I would assume relief though.
  25. KeithStone53151
    3 years, 28 million. 10 team no trade. Even with him reportedly vying for a rotation spot, I would imagine a guy like Reed is going to use this contract as a starting point. Probably will ask for slightly more annually and an extra year.
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