KeithStone53151

Btw... am I the only one who looks at swazak and goes, yeah had a great year but uh he's been very bad prior to that. I would have him on the wish list of adds but quite a ways lower than I hope to go. Swarzak has made measurable changes to his pitch selection, and his stuff has generally improved in the bullpen. Maybe the league will adjust to his adjustments, maybe not. But right now he's a quality reliever.

I would agree. Santana has broken out, while Manaea is just a decent/interesting guy at this point. I also don't think he has the upside we'd be looking for in a trade for Santana. I'm of the "give villar a shot" camp, and don't have a ton of interest in someone like Lowrie. Then again, any deal for a 2b should include Villar or the end result should be him getting traded. He either should start everyday to try and regain his form or play for someone else.

I'd prefer to aim higher, but Harvey could bounce back with a change of scenery and fits the short term contract situation we are looking for. Also since he's in arbitration, his contract wouldn't be guaranteed and he could be cut in camp. Wouldn't be the worst guy to trade for assuming the prospect cost would be minimal.

This is an interesting point on the Giants. I would be very surprised if they don't make a trade for an outfielder. Whether it's Santana, Broxton, McCutchen, etc...it makes the most sense for them to go that route this year.

I'm anticipating Swarzak being more expensive, but I agree I would like to bring him back.

Looks like Neshek will be plucked fairly quickly. I wonder if we are in on Neshek or not. Thoughts on whether 2/16 is too steep for him?

ESPN is the worst, they've been in a freefall for quite some time.

I'd tend to agree, but there's definitely risk and it shouldn't be discounted. It's a shame we can't take such a risk with 8-10% of our payroll, for them it's probably closer to 5%.

I wonder why you picked those guys since they are not really comparable at all.... #petpeeve What? Good defensive outfielders with power that are right-handed and crush lefty pitching but cannot play every day because they can't hit righties. It wasn't a race thing as you perceived it to be. EDIT: OK, Jackson doesn't necessarily have the massive splits or power over his career, but he's still a guy that's on the right-handed side of a platoon. Trust me, I'm the last person to make a comparison for your pet peeve reasons. Call it a mistake for including Jackson even though he's functionally the same thing as a right-handed platoon/4th OF. Over the last few years he's hit lefties well and righties not well. You also must have missed my post where I noted that Austin Jackson has hit around 20 HR over the last 4 years combined. I'm not sure I'd call that an outfielder with power.

I wonder why you picked those guys since they are not really comparable at all.... #petpeeve What? Good defensive outfielders with power that are right-handed and crush lefty pitching but cannot play every day because they can't hit righties. It wasn't a race thing as you perceived it to be. EDIT: OK, Jackson doesn't necessarily have the massive splits or power over his career, but he's still a guy that's on the right-handed side of a platoon. Trust me, I'm the last person to make a comparison for your pet peeve reasons. Call it a mistake for including Jackson even though he's functionally the same thing as a right-handed platoon/4th OF. Over the last few years he's hit lefties well and righties not well. You must have bypassed my post where I discredited the notion that Broxton has significant RH vs LH splits......

I debated back and forth over Garcia or Herrera for my sleeper pick. Herrera started to open some eyes last year and we all know him from the Lind trade but not much has been said or discussed about him. I do feel he is a kid who will take a big leap this year repeating in Wisconsin. His numbers are a little strange since everything looks outstanding in Helena until you see a mid 6 FIP. Then you notice why. FIP is driven up by HRs. It is a stat made to take defensive factors away from the pitcher and what they control. The one spot that killed Herrera in Helena was an awful 18.5% Home run/FB% and giving up 2.14 HR/9. Overall, he could not get groundballs (25% only). The rest of the numbers looked promising! 30% K to 6% BB, .213 BA against, 1.00 Whip. 11 k/9 to 2 bb/9 ratio. Wisconsin was a mix bag but that is expected out of a 19 year old during a mid summer promotion. Think he will come in as their "Ace" this season along with Jaylen Rose. I'm a Ray supporter and think he will right the ship this season. Getting out of Carolina/BC will make that easier. I hope Kirby can stay healthy and show something. He is already 24 and has yet to really be able to pitch much. I remember watching him in the College World Series Tourney and he was electric. Hope he is able to come back! I personally am far less concerned with statistical performance at Helena/Wisconsin, and much more concerned with development/stuff. Looking at FIP and such doesn't do much for me at such low levels. K rates and BB rates can help to some degree, but Jon Perrin put up gaudy numbers in Wisconsin and is a soft tossing RH pitcher. So even those numbers come with a grain of salt.

i don't think anybody is saying they don't want Panik. It's a matter of being the right deal and how we want to build the team, and if we want to give up on the upside of someone like Villar. Trading for Panik would basically be giving up on Villar.

Agree. He'd look good in our rotation, but is it worth Brinson plus some other good prospects to get him? We're at that fun part of the off season where things could happen at any moment. We might find out in the next couple days whether acquiring Archer is realistic or not. At this point, I don't care to speculate too much...just want to see what happens. In Stearns I trust.

Chris Young is relatively comparable, has the power/speed/k issue combination in CF. Austin Jackson is not though. Broxton hit about as many HR in 2/3 worth of plate appearances last season as Austin Jackson did the last 4 seasons. Same with stolen bases. The only things they have in common is they play CF and hit RH.

The issue is that when Broxton goes on a tear, it's usually predictable. It's against left-handed pitchers or really bad righties. Those stats count, but we're going to continue this rollercoaster if he's an everyday player. I don't think the older dog will be taught too many tricks to suddenly consistently hit right-handed pitching. Too many strikeouts. This isn't some 23-year-old prospect that we're expecting to learn how to hit righties next year. Keon is a poor man's Austin Jackson. Or he's Chris Young. Those guys have roles and still get paid $5 million/year, but MLB GMs are smart enough to know the role for those players in that they should start 1/3 of games (against LHP and bad righties), be defensive replacements/pinch hitters late in games, and could be relied upon to be not terrible if your lefty or consistent starter gets hurt. Jackson and Young are good outfielders with power and some speed that unfortunately bat righty and strike out so much that they cannot beat right-handed pitching. It's time that we embrace this and understand his trade value and/or deploy him as such. We're going to keep banging our heads against the wall thinking that the guy will blossom into a better player because he's somewhat under-experienced. Except that's not at all true about his splits. In May/June that I referenced, his batting average was roughly identical vs RH pitchers as LH pitchers and he hit 10 of his 12 HR during that stretch against RH hitters. Also 11 of his 16 walks were against RH pitchers. His upside is probably what he did during that stretch, if he could maintain that for a full season he'd be an all star. That stretch proves he has the talent, just needs to work hard to keep his mechanics in place and avoid the long stretches of being dreadful. As he further matures, I'd like to think he'll get better at that. And to be clear, I'm not advocating that we keep him. I'm advocating that he has trade value. All of our other outfielders are either currently better, or project to be better with equal or more upside than Broxton. It's not like we are dumping our garbage on someone.

Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, trade ... our starting rotation for 2018. Hader/Woodruff are moreso penciled in, if they look awful in spring they'll open in AAA. We should have a vet or 2 on a minor league deal with invite to spring just in case. Let a couple of those guys battle with Suter, Wilkerson, Jungmann, Guerra, etc for the potential starter role if someone looks awful in spring.

He's going to turn 28 early next season. He's not young, he's basically what he is at this point. I meant tough to comp to the free agents, and right he isn't young but he doesn't have a ton of experience at the mlb level yet like the to be free agents. I'm not sure that we've seen the best of Broxton yet. In May/June last year he was an upper 800s ops guy as an everyday player. He went ridiculously ice cold in July and basically got benched/platooned from there. He's more dynamic with more upside than any CF on the free agent market, even Lorenzo Cain. There's a lot to dream on with Broxton. We've seen that even hitting .246 is a very productive season for Broxton(2016 season). I would also like to point out that Broxton posted the lowest BABIP of his career at .323 this season, at any level. If that goes up a bit(which it should), and he can cut his k rate down closer to 30%...that probably gets him into the 240s and is a very productive player again.

Breakout - Hiura. This one is easy, I feel like he's gonna rake like crazy this year. Kirby is a possibility here as well. Bounce Back - I like Nottingham, but you picked him so I'll go Medeiros. He improved tremendously from 2016 to 2017, though it isn't super notable in the stats. I think he improves significantly whether he gets bounced to relief or continues to start. Bust - I also like Diplan here, but I'll go with Stokes. I feel like he's going to level off a bit against higher level competition. Sleeper - Chad Mcclanahan, i hope he opens in Wisconsin. He's had a couple years to work on swing mechanics, etc...hoping 2018 is a bit of a breakout for him.

You should try looking at the value this way. What would it take to replace Panik in free agency vs what would it take to replace Santana in free agency. For Santana I'll use Bruce and Martinez as the best comps this year. Bruce is a lifetime 250/320/475 hitter, coming off 254/324/508 this season, is basically zero threat on the bases, and is roughly average defensively thanks to a cannon arm. He's 30 and projects to get 3/39 in free agency. Martinez is a lifetime 285/342/514 hitter, coming off 303/376/690, is basically zero threat on the bases, and is a poor defender at a less demanding position(LF/DH). He's also 30 and projects to get 6/150 in free agency. Santana is a 261/353/468 hitter lifetime, coming off 278/371/505, and is slightly below average in RF but with a cannon arm. He's 25 and has 4 years of team control left. So if you need corner outfield, your options are to get decent production for 3/39, get great offensive production with defensive liability for 6/150, or try and swing a trade for Santana and probably pay 4/30. Don't forget that Santana is 25 and has upside while these guys surely will decline through the life of their deals. Santana is more likely to get even better than to get worse. Panik is a 282/345/408 hitter lifetime coming off a similar season, also a plus defender and not a threat on the bases. Panik is 27 and has 3 years of control left. Closest comp is probably walker. Walker is 32 and projects to get 2/20 in FA, I think that might be closer to 3/36. Walker is a 272/341/437 hitter career with a slightly better 2017. Not a threat on the bases, slightly below average defender. So a team could either sign walker for 3/36 or trade for panik and probably pay 3/18. Clearly way more surplus value in getting Santana, also more upside as Panik has likely close to peaked as a hitter while Santana likely will get better. Point here is Santana clearly has way more value than Panik. While Panik wouldn't be a bad piece to acquire, it would take a lot more than him to get Santana. Broxton would make more sense. Broxton is tough to comp because he's so young, dynamic, and frustrating. He is probably closest to comparable to the pre-breakout Carlos Gomez. But even pre-breakout Gomez didn't flash as much power as Broxton. A team trading for Broxton knows they are getting plus defense/speed at bare minimum, and a risky bat with tremendous upside. If it clicks even a little bit for him on the offensive side, trading for him could be the steal of the decade. And he's had stretches where things have clicked and he's produced like crazy. I have no idea why so many people discount Broxton so much, saying we should DFA or trade him for fringe prospects. Especially considering the CF available in FA, he's going to fetch a lot of interest on a variety of fronts. I don't know that Panik for Broxton is fair for both sides, but it's much closer than Panik for Santana straight up.

You do realize that Panik is considered one of the best all around 2B in baseball? Not only has he been an All Star (2015), but he's won a Gold Glove, owns a career .282 BA, a career .345 OBP, and a .439 career slugging percentage away from spacious A T & T Park, but he's one of the toughest to strike out in all of baseball. He's also controllable through 2020. Heck a straight up deal Santana for Panik is not a horrible deal at all. If they include Samardzija, I'd say it's a win for the Brewers. Brewers can find a veteran corner OF bat in FA to fall back on if Brinson's not quite ready, but Brinson is the centerpiece of the rebuild and is being counted on to deliver sooner rather than later, and Phillips showed down the stretch he may well be ready now for everyday duty. I agree panik is a good player, but Santana is far more valuable. A 1 for 1 deal is unlikely. A high end 2b doesn't even sniff the value of a stud RF. Look no further than the free agent market. Walker is a very good 2b and projects to get like 3/36. Bruce and Martinez are seeking 100m+. They might not get it, but the difference in value is clear. The giants would obviously need to send us major league talent to get Santana, but I still don't think it's happening.

Maybe but I don't know why we would. Chen's arm is toast and I don't know what we'd do with Prado. He's not an upgrade over Shaw, unless you want to put Prado at 2B and even then he's still not much of anything. We can't operate like a big payroll team, it sounds great in theory but it's a better decision for a luxury tax payroll team, not us

No doubt. You can tell me all about how injuries will happen and not all prospects turn out, but you can't just sit on Braun/Santana/Brinson/Phillips/Broxton/(and maybe Thames partially). You gotta get rid of someone and not waste away value. I think most agree with that, and that gives no mention to the handful of guys 1-2 years away. SF can have all the interest they want in Santana I just don't think they can get him. Santana is rightfully going to have a sky high price tag. I hope the interest being discussed is widespread, puts Stearns in a position of strength when determining who to deal. Not only does a team who wants X player have to be the highest bidding team, they have to beat the potential surplus value we might be getting on a different outfielder. I hope he goes the simple route and finds a good deal for broxton, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if he gets a "can't say no" offer on someone else.

Not that this is realistic, but some combination of Strickland/2 top prospects/Samardja with a chunk of his salary coming our way might make sense. They have MLB pieces that would help the team that aren't off limits(poser/mad bum/cueto/etc) I'm not advocating the trade, just saying with MLB players they have some firepower.

I'm not surprised by the interest, to be expected. I don't think Santana is a realistic play for the Giants, plus he would be an absolute disaster defensively in that giant outfield. If for some reason that deal does happen, it has to include some MLB talent.

Agreed. Though I'm not sure where this speculation is coming from that Scioscia can't or doesn't want Ohtani to play the field and pitch. Is there any sort of support/sources for this, or is it purely a "well he's an older manager therefore by default he's conventional..."?