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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    The Brewers are pretty well set up for a massive shuttle squad this year. We don't have a lot of projected relievers that are locked onto the roster. I think only Hader, Knebel, Claudio, and maybe Black are locked in. Hader and Knebel I think actually have options, but obviously they aren't getting optioned for fresh arm reasons...that only happens if they are Travis Shaw bad. We have quite a few options for those last 4 bullpen spots and they all have options(barring a late signing).
  2. KeithStone53151
    I would like to point out that 3 or 4 people have respectfully disagreed with my notion on the Brewers being a bit lucky the last few years. I think the "disrespectful comments" thing is a bit overblown. It definitely can get heated sometimes, but most people tend to be pretty respectful most of the time.
  3. KeithStone53151
    I'm a bit annoyed that the Cubs signed him. I liked JJ and would like to see him do well for all but 2 teams in baseball. Annoying to have to root against him.
  4. KeithStone53151
    For starters, the Brewers got a bit lucky in the wins and losses column last year considering their level of play. So we definitely should be better than we were last year if we want to contend. That said, the position players are probably overall a push...with some upside if we improve at SS. I think we'll improve at CF, LF, 2b, SS, and 1b. We'll get slightly worse at 3b and a bit more worse at C. RF(or if he moves to LF) hopefully will be about the same, but for 162 games. Bullpen I think will be fine if Hader is at least 90% as good as he was last year. There's obviously some concern about the workload last year, and the whole one trick pony thing. Beyond that, I think we look a lot better on paper. Knebel back will be huge. Suter for a full season. And for the rest we can go with a quantity approach and it should work out. There are alot of high potential guys competing for bullpen slots. Rotation I have much more comfort than most. Beyond Woodruff, it's full of guys with some upside left...but primarily high floor guys. It would be a bit surprising if we had multiple of the current projected rotation with over a 5 ERA. It's nothing special, but they should eat innings and keep us in games. What can make the rotation very good, is if any of Burnes/Peralta/Suter force their way into the rotation. I'm primarily looking at the top 2 here. Both were pretty bad in the rotation in 2019, but both have pretty incredible arms and are very good bounce back candidates. I would be a bit surprised if at least one didn't force their way into the rotation to open the season.
  5. KeithStone53151
    Yeah that's the only way they get good value for him...but then it's still annoying that he had a monster year and opted out. Though it would have to be a truly monster year, because he very well knows a comp pick would be coming his way if he opted out...and we've seen what those do to a players value.
  6. KeithStone53151
    I don't know it I'd say stupid. It would create a clear window, but they'd be really good for 2 years before Lindor left.
  7. KeithStone53151
    With this trade, the Pirates also pretty much cement themselves in the top 5 picks for the 2021 draft. That was already more likely than not, but seriously this team is going to be bad. How long until they trade Josh Bell and go for a record low in wins?
  8. KeithStone53151
    Why is St Louis projected at the top of this list? And considerably higher than the other 3? I look at their roster, and it really doesn't scare me even a little bit. Lineup is meh after Goldschmidt, rotation is meh after Flaherty, bullpen is meh after Gallegos
  9. KeithStone53151
    They might actually. They just inked a new tv deal. It's fairly refreshing to see a team ink a new tv deal or bring in a source of revenue, and immediately make it noticed on the MLB payroll. I'm not trying to correlate this in any way to the Brewers, it's generally nice to see though.
  10. KeithStone53151
    I understand you're just quoting projections, but if someone let me bet on whether Hiura would outproduce Moose at the plate this year...I'd go get a home equity loan today.
  11. KeithStone53151
    This signing pretty much cements the Cubs as 4th place finishers in the NL Central. It was probably going to happen even before this signing, but now you can take it to the bank.
  12. KeithStone53151
    I do not see more darts in 2020 vs 2019. I think 2018 had by far the most darts of the trio and that's the level of darts I'm hoping they find a way to get back to having. The opening rotation is likely to look something like Woodruff, Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, Houser in some order. Beyond that, we have Peralta, Suter, Burnes, and Supak on the 40 man roster...and Brown/Rasmussen as 10th and 11th starting options if we have a big problem. The first 5 are all relatively safe bets to be mediocre or better(OK Anderson can at best be mediocre)...Burnes/Peralta have the massive upside to potentially steal a starting roll if either is awesome in ST while Suter is a pretty safe bet to be solid if he's needed to start. I think the rotation is in a much better place than many seem to think. And responding to another poster, if 4 of the top 8 options end up failing or getting hurt in the first month or two...we'll be roughly where we were in 2019. Needing the offense to carry us big time. I wouldn't necessarily say the season is over by any stretch.
  13. KeithStone53151
    What is your reasoning that Houser is better suited for a pen role vs a rotation role? The results have pointed to that all along. He was a 4.57 ERA guy as a starter. A 1.47 guy as a RP. His Minor stats in extended starts haven't been overly impressive either. I hope he improves as a starter but I thought his addition to the pen last year helped MKE a great deal and then the pitching staff struggled a bit when he was removed from the pen and put into the rotation. I think ideally he'd pitch in the pen. The numbers are generally suspect as they are small sample. I would argue he's slightly better than a 4.57 ERA guy as a starter, and considerably worse than a 1.47 guy as a reliever. Also, 9 out of 10 starters would fare better in relief...so you can't specifically look at that either. I also would add he came into the season as a reliever and got stretched out during the season to start. He would probably fare better if he was preparing to start from day 1 of ST. And I'll play you're game, in an ideal world...Burnes and Peralta do what they should have done last year, and a fairly effective Houser gets pushed to the bullpen because those guys are simply better. One thing about this year vs last year, we have a lot more darts to throw at the wall. Last year, when Chacin was meh and Peralta/Burnes were dumpster fires...we didn't have enough real depth to come up and pitch. We had to panic sign GG and fortunately he worked out. We have considerably more options this year...if Woodruff is 2019 Woodruff and half our dart throws meet the higher end of realistic expectations...we'll be just fine.
  14. KeithStone53151
    There aren't a ton of good options for a first time bobble. Hiura is probably the best one(they probably should have given him one). You can't have unproven rookies or $5 million/year free agents as bobbles.
  15. KeithStone53151
    What is your reasoning that Houser is better suited for a pen role vs a rotation role?
  16. KeithStone53151
    I'm frankly not sure why people are so high on Ozuna. Last year was the 2nd best hitting season of his career and he posted 241/328/472...good for 800 OPS. And he's at best a mediocre defender in LF. It's hard to be overly critical of a 1 year deal, at the same time this deal ties their hands on other potential deals.
  17. KeithStone53151
    Most peoples argument on Walker is Colorado. He probably should get in, but his career WAR is heavily inflated by Colorado. Rolen is on the border for me also, he's definitely in the hall of very good but I'm a high bar hall guy. Jeter I tend to agree is wildly overrated, he has no business being a unanimous election in my opinion. His standing gets inflated by New York bias and his postseason performance(which comes with a lot of chances due to being a Yankee). He definitely should get in, but for me he probably shouldn't even be first ballot.
  18. KeithStone53151
    I tend to agree, hard to imagine Yelich staying in Milwaukee if he continues to perform at 2019/2020 levels.
  19. KeithStone53151
    I don't remember seeing anything on Ortiz being a steroid guy. I also don't remember on Pudge but with him it's a bit more likely I would have missed it. But again, that's part of why I like the idea of a steroid class. Ortiz would be first eligible on the 2022 ballot.
  20. KeithStone53151
    Don't know where else to include this, Faria cleared waivers and will remain with the Brewers. I'm happy to see that, I think he has a real shot to be a good pen arm for us.
  21. KeithStone53151
    I like the idea of holding off on all the steroid guys and having a handshake type agreement between writers to vote them all in in 2022 when Arod is first eligible. Have a "steroid class". Seems the best way to get those guys in with a proper asterisk.
  22. KeithStone53151
    I don't know, we're starting to hit that "teams are pretty set with their rosters already, I better take what's available to me"/"Stearns' grab bag" time of year for free agents. Ozuna, with draft pick compensation attached to him, may be even more likely to take a one year deal to try again next year without the pick attached, but Castellanos is still young enough where taking a one year "prove it" deal might still be tempting for him at this point if he hasn't been offered anything he likes yet. Neither guy is a great fit with the Brewers right now, but I could see both going for less than expected at this point. I've felt like those guys were going to go for less than expected before the offseason even began. Especially Ozuna, who has had one very good year in 2017 and been maybe slightly above average aside from that. I think he'll be lucky to see 2/24. Castellanos on the other hand has been a solidly above average hitter for years and had a monster 2nd half with the Cubs. He certainly is getting much better offers, but is probably debating between a 1 year Josh Donaldson deal...and 3/4 year offers for maybe $13-15 million per year. Probably figures if he can post a 900+ OPS season...could get JD Martinez money next offseason with no pick attached.
  23. KeithStone53151
    You were on a roll with a lot of good points, until you referred to Brett Anderson as a pitcher with upside...
  24. KeithStone53151
    https://www.12up.com/posts/jose-altuve-dont-rip-my-shirt-off-aroldis-champman-walk-off-hr-alcs-astros-yankees-01dyqxcze7n0 Some very condemning video clips of that game winning HR off chapman...
  25. KeithStone53151
    Not to interrupt your back and forth, but Donaldson is 34 this year...and had a very forgettable 2018 season. There are certainly reasons to not pay him that contract. We also don't(yet) have the DH to fall back on. I think I personally would prefer to roll with a Sogard/Gyorko platoon and save some payroll $ for deadline moves(assuming we actually spend it). I think it's pretty safe to say that Hiura, Smoak, and Urias will be starting a lot. If any of Sogard/Gyorko/Arcia looks really good, we can adapt and get them a lot of playing time. Competition is a good thing. Saving payroll could allow us to bring in a frontline starter at the deadline. Imagine if Houston has a slow start and sells at the deadline...it would be tough to fit Greinke or Verlander in the budget if we add Donaldson's 23 million.
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