Of course I know that almost all teams have occasional outlier scoring outbursts, and that all teams go through hot and cold stretches. But the Brewers having outbursts of 11, 14, and 17 runs in their first 24 games had an outsized impact on their runs per game average.
Through those 24 games they were tied for third in MLB with 125 runs (5.2 per game). But their average in the other 21 of those 24 games was just 3.95 runs per game which was probably a much more accurate reflection of the offense. I doubt if many other teams had their RPG impacted that much by 3 games. It's noy just the number of games scoring 10 runs or more. It's scoring 12 runs more than 10 runs per game.
Of course the impact of those games gets diluted as more games are played. And I recognize that the offense in the last 5 weeks has had a truly putrid stretch along with periods of mere mediocrity. So, I agree that the offense will probably fall somewhere between the elite levels of the first 3 weeks and the horrific levels of the last 5.
But ,if the goal is for the team to be better than slightly below average, I don't think this offense is going to cut it. Maybe the slightly elevated run production in the last ten days is a sign of a turnaroud. Or maybe it's a reflection of facing some of the worst teams in MLB.