BruisedCrew

Interesting replay review coming up where a reversal could (and should) give the DBacks a run.

Now a double shutout, one hitter through 6.

Two out single in the 6th breaks a string of 17 straight retired, but Tallion still has a shutout through 6. Would be a shame for the DBacks to waste a solid start from Gallen with unfavorable matchups for AZ the next two days.

Double no hitter through 4 at Wrigley.

Some times it’s not who you play but when you play them. Are the Brewers really the better team on paper if you consider the pitching matchup, how the Yankees have played with and without Judge in the lineup, and that the Yankees have won 8 of their last 10? Whet do the oddsmakers say? Do they think the Brewers should win and make them the betting favorite? IMHO this will be a tough series and I would take 2 out of 3 happily. Hopefully the DBacks can take at least one more from the Cubs and the Brewers will get out of the weekend with no less than a 2 game lead.

I was there that day and remember vividly Boomer’s line drive blast to the back of the bleachers. There were several memorable wins over the Yankees at County Stadium in the 70’s.

DBacks get a runner on third with none out in the first and respond with 3 Ks, including a gift third strike to the last hitter. Much like watching the Brewers.

Just because someone’s opinion reflects something that is not mathematically likely doesn’t make it “nonsense”. It just might be something that you could disagree with (respectfully, if possible).

I think we are saying the same thing. Let me put it this way: If going into the final series the Brewers are ahead by 2 games or 3 games, the Cubs would have to sweep the series to take the division. If going into the final series the Brewers are ahead by one game, the teams are tied, or the Cubs are ahead by one game, the winner of the series will win the division. If going into the series the Cubs lead by 2 or 3 games, the Brewers would have to sweep the series to win the division. That’s why I set a 4 game lead going into that series. Being ahead by 3 games going into series is basically the same as being ahead by 2 games. Being ahead or behind by 1 game going into the series are both basically the same as being tied. But clearly, being ahead by 2 or 3 games would be better than being ahead by 1 game.

Because of the tiebreaker situation, the real target for the Brewers will be to get to 4 games ahead of the Cubs before the final series. Being ahead by 3 games would be the functional equivalent of being up by 2 games, just like being ahead by 1 game would be the same as being tied or behind by 1 game.

The essence of this comment is that these teams gained ground on the Brewers because they played better. It seems like that’s what the best teams are supposed to do. The Brewers in 2018, 2019, and 2021 had extended streaks of good play of their own. Their plus .700 play in September of 2018 and 2019 pushed them into the playoffs. In 2021 they were 52-27 (.658) from June through August and built up a cushion that allowed them to hold off the Cardinals in spite of their 17 game winning streak. If the Cubs continue to win at their current pace they will likely win the division and they will deserve it. The Brewers put themselves in this position by playing .500 ball from May through July. If they had played like a team that deserved to be in the playoffs they would have a cushion now.

Now that the Cubs have erased most of the 4 1/2 game lead the Brewers had Sunday morning, I'm revisiting the issue of remaining schedules. Focusing on the next 18 days leading up to the final week of the season, both teams play 5 series. The Cubs have: Ariz (4), @Colo (3), @Ariz (3), Pit (3), Col (3). The Brewers have: @NYY (3), Mia (4), Wash (3), @SL (4), @Mia (3) The Cubs have 3 series (10 games) at home and 2 series (6 games) on the road, The Brewers have 2 series (7 games) at home, and 3 series (10 games) on the road. Breaking down these schedules, I see the respective home and home series against the DBacks and Marlins to be basically a wash. Both teams are squarely in the hunt for the last wild card spot with only a half game separating them and the Reds. Both teams have struggled since the ASB (9 games under .500), though the Marlins have shown some life recently, winning 6 in a row including wins over the Dodgers the last two nights. The Marlins could also be affected by IL stints for Alcantara and Soler. The Cubs real potential advantage comes from their home and home series with the Rockies, who have the worst record in the NL by 10 games with a run differential of -210. They also have the worst record in the league since the ASB. It stings that the Brewers lost 4 of 6 to that team; hoping for help from them is likely futile. Meanwhile the Brewers' "worst" opponents during this period are the Cardinals and the Nats, who have gone 27-23 since the ASB. Not good teams, but not Rockies level bad. The other series for the Cubs is at home against the Pirates, while the Brewers have the road series against the Yankees. Again, advantage Cubs. The last series before the season ending head to head series are the Cubs at Atlanta and the Brewers at home against the Cardinals. On paper, this looks like an advantage for the Brewers but, as has been covered, it remains to be seen how focused the Braves will be in that final week. Put it all together and I'm still not seeing any significant advantage for either team but, if anything, I think the Cubs have an edge. The probability of the division race coming down to the last weekend has increased significantly in the last 10 days. The Brewers are probably going to have to play better in these next 5 series than they have in the last 3 to maintain their division lead going into the final week. I am concerned that the Brewers having to play these 17 games without an off day could put more stress on a bullpen that has been less than rock solid recently. The Cubs are in the middle of a stretch of 14 games in 13 days, but they will then have two off days before the final week.

The Dodgers first playoff opponent will likely be either the Phillies, Cubs, or Brewers. Those teams all have weaknesses of their own. Sure, the Dodgers could get knocked out in that round, but with their lineup they’ll be favored against whoever they play.

What about a team that scored a total of 3 runs on10 hits in games started by Miller, Kershaw, and Lynn?

In 4 days the Fangraphs projection for the Brewers winning the division has dropped from 89% to 67%. They still show the Brewers with a 97% chance of making the playoffs.

They were in danger when I posted that after Zach Davies gave up 5 runs in 3 innings to put them behind 5-1. So now the DBacks are 23-35 since July 1.

The way things are trending the most likely scenario in the WC round would be the 2nd place team in the division playing the Phillies and the winner of the division playing whoever emerges as the final WC team. The Brewers are still 5 games ahead of the final wild card spot. If they fall that far they would probably be in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. Those 7 games against the Marlins are looming large. Note: I am NOT expecting or assuming that the Brewers are not going to win the division or that they are going to miss the playoffs.

As the Cubs polish off their sweep of the Giants, the next hurdle in their supposedly more difficult schedule is the DBacks, who are threatening to lose their 8th of their last 11. The DBacks have gone 22-35 since July 1, which is even worse than the Giants 24-34.

Meanwhile Hicks is cruising into the 7th inning with a shutout over the Giants. I don’t think waiting for the Cubs pitching to collapse is going to be a good idea.

It often is.

I wasn’t done with my post because this site often resets. I had to add the second sentence later. I was referring to the 3-1 pitch that he swung out of his shoes chasing.

Contreras trying to hit one 5 miles wasn’t the best idea when a walk would have put the tying run in scoring position. But I guess after that last “strike” you never know how Bucknor would have called the ball 4 that he swung at.

Cubs are showing what to do when you score 3 in the first

The Brewers announcers were saying that in about the 5th inning today.

Kind of calls into question the notion that nobody would want to face the Brewers in a playoff series because of those 3 starters. That is more than offset by the idea that most playoff teams would much rather face the Brewers batting order than that of any of the other playoff teams.