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BruisedCrew

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Everything posted by BruisedCrew

  1. BruisedCrew
    If you wanted to make an argument that the Brewers are choking this series away, you’d have a pretty strong case.
  2. BruisedCrew
    I would be shocked if they drive that far. It would be a security nightmare. Also, the plane has to go to Milwaukee anyway to take him to his next destination. He and his entourage might as well go with it.
  3. BruisedCrew
    Because you are on a crusade to dig up old posts, can you come up with what exactly I said after the Phillies series about the Brewers having “no chance” to get a first round bye? I seem to recall saying that the Brewers should continue to play to win through the Arizona series and then see where things stood.
  4. BruisedCrew
    While this game had no real importance, I was really glad the Brewers won. it would have bugged me if they had lost the season series to the Pirates.
  5. BruisedCrew
    Yes, Arizona’s position is an essential part of the whole thing. I wonder, though, if they would play those games if the only thing that is undecided is seeding. For example, if the Mets, win 2 of 3 this weekend, the DBacks beat the Padres 2 of 3, and the Braves get swept by KC, the Braves would be eliminated from playoff contention and the Padres would be the top WC team. Would they play at least one of the Braves-Mets games to decide the 4 and 5 seeds? I would rather see the Brewers play the Mets than the DBacks too. Winning the series this weekend would be a step toward making that happen.
  6. BruisedCrew
    I would bet that they would simply cancel one or both games if they have no bearing on playoff positions.
  7. BruisedCrew
    Oops. I was focusing on the Phillies because for the last few days they had seemed like a slightly less improbable target. I jumped the gun by a couple of hours.
  8. BruisedCrew
    Brewers loss mathematically eliminates them from the race for a first round bye.
  9. BruisedCrew
    If the Brewers can win a playoff series for the first time since 2018 (when they also got a break because the Rockies had to play both a game 163 and a wild card playoff the next night) I couldn’t care less what the national media says.
  10. BruisedCrew
    I just saw that the games were postponed. Not a surprise, but they really blew it by not seeing what was coming and maybe playing 2 games yesterday and/or one earlier today. They moved up the Rays-Tigers game yesterday because of a forecast for Tuesday night that was nowhere near as grim as what Atlanta is facing the next two days. The Brewers are in position to force the Mets and Braves to play at least one game by beating the Mets at least once.
  11. BruisedCrew
    The NL and the Braves might be kicking themselves for not moving tonight’s game against the Mets to earlier today. Atlanta is now in the middle of a line of storms that is expected to drop 2-3 inches of rain. Maybe it will let up long enough to squeeze a game in later tonight, but that might be dicey. Then they are expecting more rain and possibly another 2-3 inches tomorrow. If they can’t get the two games in it’s going to set up an interesting scenario that might affect the Brewers playoff opponent. Depending on how the weekend goes, the Braves and Mets might have to play on Monday to determine the wild card spots. If that happens, maybe the teams should come here to play to guarantee that they can get the game or games in and possibly the survivor could just stay to play the Brewers. The DBacks looked to be in the drivers seat for the 4 seed after the third inning on Sunday. But since then they have been outscored 27-4 and have picked up 3 losses. So they are now a half game behind the Mets and a half game ahead of the Braves. With 3 games against the Padres (who are still fighting for the NL West title) they are now in serious danger of missing the playoffs entirely.
  12. BruisedCrew
    The important series that might really have rain problems is the Mets Braves series in Atlanta Atlanta is looking at the possibility of several inches of rain starting sometime on Wednesday from the remnants of the hurricane moving through the gulf. I wonder if they might consider moving up the start time of tomorrow’s game to try to get another one in before the rain hits.
  13. BruisedCrew
    There might be some delays (nothing new in Pittsburgh) but the forecast I’m seeing doesn’t look that bad. I would expect them to get all 3 games in.
  14. BruisedCrew
    They could get everyone 4-5 innings by stacking starters. I don’t think missing a game in Pittsburgh is anything to be concerned about. They know they’ll have 3 games over the weekend to give anyone they want some work. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 7 or 8 different pitchers on Sunday.
  15. BruisedCrew
    If it’s considered irrational to even think of the possibility that a team with an 8 game lead in mid August could blow the lead, it is really irrational to think that a team is going to blow a 4 game lead with 6 to play. I’m sure the probability of the Brewers getting a bye at this point is significantly less than 5%.
  16. BruisedCrew
    Should be really fun going to the game tomorrow now that the Brewers have stopped playing.
  17. BruisedCrew
    I started my “four months” on June 1 to cover June, July, August, and September. In that period the Mets and DBacks are both 61-36 and the Brewers are 54-43. Their run differentials are 113 and 106 to the Brewers 69. And the Brewers are missing their best and most experienced hitter, who contributed significantly to the Brewers for part of that period. No matter where you decide to measure, the conclusion is the same. I don’t think either team will present more or less of a challenge than the other. So, I’d prefer a different opponent than the one that summarily brushed the Brewers aside last year. The DBacks might come in with a lot of confidence considering how they have bullied the Brewers at AFF the last two years. They also carry the confidence of advancing to the WS last year.
  18. BruisedCrew
    Any of the potential wild card teams would present problems for the Brewers. The two most likely candidates, the Mets and DBacks,have been the NL’s best and highest scoring teams over the last 4 months of the season. If it comes down to those two, I would prefer the Mets just to have it be someone different than last year.
  19. BruisedCrew
    The Brewers already extremely slim chance of getting a bye may be all but gone by the end of the weekend. I suspect there will be more rests given in the Pirates series where the games will be meaningless both for the Brewers and their opponents.
  20. BruisedCrew
    The Tigers-Orioles series this weekend will be interesting. The Orioles have been struggling and are still trying to lock up their own playoff position. The Tigers last two series are against the Rays and the historically terrible White Sox so they will have an opportunity to finish strong.
  21. BruisedCrew
    I raised this awhile ago and didn't get any responses. It has been my impression that the last few months, starting with the Grand Slam Week in June, the Brewers have scored a higher percentage of their runs on HR than they did early in the season. I wonder if there is a way to confirm this and to compare what percentage of their runs scored on HR compares to other playoff teams.
  22. BruisedCrew
    That’s looking at it from a detached perspective. But from the standpoint of an avid fan, that 60% chance that the Twins have doesn’t feel the same as if the race had been that close all along. When my team has a big lead in a game or a season long race, I can feel confident, but I don’t want to see that lead shrink significantly. So, when a 95% chance drops to 50%, that creates an uncomfortable feeling that I’d prefer to avoid. I think as a fan I retain the attitude I had when I played competitive sports. When you have a significant lead that isn’t a time to get comfortable and let up. Once the lead slips it might be hard to get the momentum and upper hand back.
  23. BruisedCrew
    It’s hard to compare him to players who play in the field every day. Babe Ruth is the closest analogy, but in a no DH era his best pitching years were separate from his biggest hitting years. Ohtani also doesn’t have the excellence for an extended period like players like Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. I think Ohtani needs at least a few more years to be considered the best ever.
  24. BruisedCrew
    Yeah, I suppose if people were told as they were boarding a plane that it had a 95% chance of reaching the destination safely they would take that 5% chance seriously. But, in 1969 I knew people who were Cubs fans as they took a 9 1/2 game lead on August 14 and collapsed to finishing 8 games behind the Miracle Mets. I think some of them would have chosen the plane trip over that experience.
  25. BruisedCrew
    I “literally” only brought up the Angels when you said it would be very hard to come up with an example. Then you got upset when I immediately gave you one. The reality and cold hard evidence is that a 95% chance of success means a 5% chance of something that most fans (most likely including you) would find very upsetting. So they don’t like to get too far ahead of themselves. I have a pretty good idea what a 95% probability is. It’s about the same as the probability that any of my posts will receive one of those cute little thumbs down comments that you are so fond of.
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