BruisedCrew

Looks like a simple typo. Slaton’s 6 shutout inning debut was in 1971. Typos happen. Like someone typing “pay” instead of “play”. 😀

Terrible baserunnjng. Turang didn’t even have to extend fully to catch that.

I actually tried a free trial at Stathead last year and the charts aren't there. I sent a message to their customer support and they confirmed that they weren't there. There are ways you could get the data for one team by doing a convoluted sort request, but I wasn't going to pay for the "right" to do that.

In keeping with the theme of this thread (at least the part that doesn't discuss Blake Perkins), i do point out that 7 of the Brewers 13 games with 7 or more runs came in that hot stretch to start the season, including 6 straight in games 8-13. In those games they also had games of 4 and 6 runs and 4 with 3 runs. So, in their last 24 games they have had 6 games of 7+, 5 of 4-6 4uns, and a whopping 13 (Just over half) in the 0-3 bucket. I raise this merely as a statement of fact and not to push any opinion that the Brewers are going to continue at this pace for the rest of the season. Hopefully with Yelich back in the lineup the Brewers can start putting up more runs again.

Thanks for this. I'm curious exactly where you went on BR for the run support splits. They used to have handy scoring charts that showed for each team, and for the leagues as a whole, both the number of times they scored (and allowed) a certain number of runs and the W-L records when scoring that many runs. Those went away last year. Before I saw your post I took a swipe at this and sliced it a little differently. For one thing I set the lowest bucket at 0-3 runs because I have always considered these "low scoring games". This was based on the BR tables and win probabilities that showed 4 runs as the point at which the win probability reached 50%. Then, because this started with a fact about scoring 7+ runs, I set that as the high run bucket with 4-6 runs as the middle bucket. Using the game by game results on BR and sorting by runs scored I came up with these numbers for the 7 NL teams that are currently scoring above the league average. As things stand now these 7 teams are the leading contenders for the 6 NL playoff spots. Here they are in order of total runs scored with the High/middle/low bucket numbers: LAD 12 19 7 ATL 8 17 9 PHIL 11 16 11 AZ 8 15 15 MIL 13 7 17 SD 9 13 18 CHI 10 10 18 I made a statement on a thread a week or two ago that the Brewers run distribution graph looks more like a dumbbell than the expected bell curve with a tail to the right, and these numbers bear that out. While having the most games scoring 7 or more runs (and several more than some of the teams) they have a strikingly low number in the 4-6 range that I would expect to be higher, and is higher for the top scoring teams (Dodgers, Braves, Phillies). What makes those teams great is not so much having a lot of high scoring games as avoiding too many low scoring games. The numbers for the DBacks, Padres, and Cubs are more similar to the Brewers, especially in the low bucket.

We can hope.

It could be interesting to discuss this fact, both from the standpoint of what it says about the Brewers offense and the general subject of how a team's runs are distributed across games

I’m glad to see Yelich in LF tonight. There have been suggestions that he would be a nearly full time DH because of his back issues, but doing that would limit their ability to field their best hitting lineup on a regular basis. Yelich, Contreras, Hoskins, and Sanchez are 4 of the team’s 5 veteran hitters, and 3 of them are limited to DH, C, , and 1B. Yelich will be getting some off days and some starts as DH. But whenever he can play LF it opens up more possibilities for the rest of the lineup.

I understand that production fluctuates over the course of the season, but I think that a team scoring about a third of its runs (58 of 177) in 6 consecutive games that make up a sixth of its 36 games is quite extreme and skews the season long numbers.. And yes, I realize that Yelich was out for 3 weeks, but I also note that he contributed nothing to the scoring in the 3 highest scoring games in that 6 game stretch. He had an off day for the first game, left with the injury after one AB in the fifth game, and was out for the sixth game. I'm not trying to "push" that the offense of the last 3 weeks is "who the offense really is". But, I think there is a legitimate question about what the offense really is like and will be like as the season moves along. If you disagree with that, that's your prerogative.

OK, but the OPS numbers I was using were all from this season to show that the hitters were much more productive in the first 13 games of the season than they were in the next 21.

These numbers beg the same question as the team runs per game numbers. As I listed in a post above (using the more familiar OPS), most of the Brewers regulars were much less productive in the most recent 21 games than the first 13. It shouldn't be surprising that fans might be reacting to the larger and more recent block of games than the exceptional hot streak they had in the first two weeks of the season. I would ask how the projections for the rest of the season compare to the current season to date numbers. I'm sure Yelich isn't expected to maintain an OPS anywhere near the 1.100 he had before yesterday. I would be very happy if he can exceed .800.

A fail from both the offense and the bullpen today. 5 runs in 6 games against SP on this road trip. That makes it tough to win games.

I’m doing my part to help the Brewers today Because the Brewers have had so much trouble scoring against starting pitchers the last five games, I picked up Singer for my fantasy team. That usually leads to a pitcher giving up at least a run per inning and picking up a loss.

I had the sound off because I was following the severe weather warnings What was the deal with the Royals fan Adames was high fiving on his way to the dugout.

On my TV the Cubs won.

Maybe the analytics say he’s great but I’ve never been impressed with Frelick’s defense. He seems to make some plays look more difficult than they have to be.

My question wasn’t really so much “Is this the real Brewers offense?” but “What is the real Brewers offense?”. A small difference. I would hope it will be better than the last 3 weeks because otherwise it will be a long season. When you say “about where it ranks overall now”, do you think they’ll end up around 7th in MLB with about 4.9 runs per game?

I didn't say the last 21 games were "the real Brewers offense". The question mark in the title and the text should have told you that I was posing the question and presenting facts and not drawing a conclusion. But, I don't think you two think that (1) Yelich is going to produce an OPS close to 1.100 for a full season, and (2) Yelich's absence accounts for even a significant part of a drop of almost 3 runs per game. As my second post highlights, the veterans in the lineup (except for Sanchez who didn't play much) started out with production that they weren't likely to maintain. And they all regressed in the last 3 weeks. Most of the younger players also started out relatively hot and have fallen back. They don't have enough of a track record to know what to expect from them, but that was one of the big question marks for the offense coming into the season

It is difficult to establish an expectation for the Brewers offense because so many of their lineup regulars have no established record as major league hitters. Of the 12 players who account for most of their plate appearances this year, 6 of them (Frelick, Turang, Chourio, Perkins, Ortiz, and Dunn) have very short MLB careers and Bauers has established a record of mediocrity in his years as a part time player. Looking at the 12 regulars individually shows how remarkable those first 13 games were, and how much things have fallen in the last 21 games. Here is a listing of the 12 players in order of their number of plate appearances. The numbers after their names are: Season OPS/OPS in first 13 games/OPS in last 21 games. Contreras .914/1.058/.822 Adames .791/.893/.722 Hoskins .749/.852/.688 Frelick .636/.758/.554 Turang .771/.939/.661 Chourio .619/.658/.586 Perkins .786/.878/.758 Ortiz . 812/.882/.768 Dunn .607/.744/.481 Bauers .618/.558/.671 Sanchez .781/.412/.950 Yelich 1.186/1.186/ X This has truly been a team wide hitting slump.

Everyone who follows the Brewers knows that their offense has been struggling to score runs for the last few weeks. A look at the MLB stats shows the Brewers 7th in runs scored per game at 4.91 runs per game and 4th in OPS+ at 114. That looks like a pretty solid offense. But, Brewers fans know that the positive part of those numbers comes mostly from their hot start to the season (especially the stretch in which they scored 7 runs or more per game while winning 5 of 6 games). I wanted to quantify how dramatically different the Brewers offense has been in the last 21 games (where they have gone 10-11) compared to the first 13 games (where they went 10-3). In those first 13 games, the Brewers averaged 6.7 runs per game and scored 3 or more runs in every game. In the last 21 games they have averaged 3.8 runs per game while scoring 3 or fewer runs in 13 of those games Given this run production, it is actually remarkable that they have won as many games as they have in this stretch. In their low scoring games they have been shut out twice, are 1-1 when scoring 1 run, 2-2 when scoring 2 runs, and 2-3 when scoring 3 runs. Baseball Reference no longer has the tables that show overall league records when scoring a specific number of runs. But, based on last year's percentages, this level of production would be expected to produce about 3 wins in these 13 games. I don't expect the Brewers to return to the level of the first 13 games for any extended period. But, if it doesn't pick up significantly it's going to be very difficult to maintain the near .500 pace of the last 3 weeks. If the pitching slips it will be "look out below".

Levering says the Brewers could use a break. How about having your veteran SS field ground balls and make the opposing pitcher throw strikes? They deserve the L tonight.

That play at first is too close to overturn too.

Four balls to Adames but the count is 2-2,

Unfortunately, the charts that used to be on Baseball Reference that made it easy to look up things like that are no longer there. I don’t know if anything like that is available anywhere else.

Can’t have meltdowns like that with a team that can’t score.