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BruisedCrew

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Everything posted by BruisedCrew

  1. BruisedCrew
    Jackson has been pretty effective since being activated by the Pirates in early August.
  2. BruisedCrew
    I don't think anyone would disagree that the Brewers rotation that now includes Woodruff and Miley is better than the Cubs rotation, but the question might be whether that difference is enough to overcome the fact that the Cubs offense is quite a bit better than the Brewers. The Cubs rotation might not hold up, but time is running short for them to fall apart. The Brewers winning percentage depends a lot more on how many runs they score than who the starting pitcher is. To illustrate, the Brewers are only 15-13 in Burnes' starts. Their winning percentages are better in games started by Houser (11-6) , Peralta (16-10) Rea (12-8), and Miley (11-8). Those are all in a fairly narrow range given the number of games. The run support per 27 innings for the entire game started by these pitchers clearly explains a lot of this: Peralta 5.2, Houser 5.1, Rea 4.8, Burnes 4.3, Miley 3.9. The worst example of lack of run support is Teheran. The Brewers are 3-8 in his starts despite 5 quality starts, largely because of run support of 2.8 runs per game. I'm not going to say that who is starting doesn't matter, but as shown by the feast (5 runs or more) or famine (2 runs or less) offense the Brewers have displayed the last 3 weeks. the main question for me before each game is not "who is starting?" but "Can the Brewers score at least 4 runs?''
  3. BruisedCrew
    I think the Cubs bullpen has been better than they get credit for too. I heard a comment the other day that the Cubs had the second best record in MLB when leading after seven innings. Of course that was before they lost back to back games against the Reds when they lost one run leads in the ninth. Still, the most common way I see people talking about bullpens is by looking at the overall ERA of the bullpen as a whole, which can be misleading because it lumps in runs given up by the worst relievers in lost causes or with huge leads with performances in true high leverage situations. A great record when leading after 7 innings can also reflect a team that opens up safe leads going into the late innings. That's something the Brewers have not done that often this season, especially before the 9 game winning streak in which they had a few of them.
  4. BruisedCrew
    This is where I miss the scoring stats that used to be available for free on Baseball Reference. But, I think it would be safe to say that the Brewers last 18 games have been unusual. They have won 11 of those 18 games and have scored 5 runs or more in each of the 11 wins and 2 runs or less in each of the 7 losses. Their high average in the wins hasn’t been skewed by any huge totals; their highest is 10. One of the Brewers strong points in recent years has been winning close low scoring games, but it hasn’t been that way the last few weeks.
  5. BruisedCrew
    Getting swept at PNC by bad Pirates teams happens to the Brewers more often than it should. We don’t have to go back any more than last August for the most recent one. Hopefully they can bounce back and avoid another one, but a game like this can give a bad team confidence. And the Pirates have been playing decent ball lately. Their record of 23-25 since the ASB is better than the Giants, Reds, and DBacks, some of those teams that supposedly give the Cubs a tougher schedule
  6. BruisedCrew
    Vinny, don’t try to tell us that Burnes pitched well except for a couple of mistakes. When you give up 2 crushed hone runs and 5 ripping extra base hits to one of the worst hitting teams in the league, that’s a flat out bad outing.
  7. BruisedCrew
    Not “most” but coming into tonight they are 15-12 in his starts. Really need better from an ace.
  8. BruisedCrew
    Burnes is done.
  9. BruisedCrew
    Bad memories from series at PNC Park are bubbling to the surface.
  10. BruisedCrew
    Not sure how you define going for the jugular for a baseball manager. If it means managing every game like there’s no tomorrow, they obviously can’t do that. I don’t think Counsell would have managed any differently yesterday if Williams had blown the lead Saturday night to tie the series. Not starting Yelich and Frelick made sense against the LHP considering that both have been scuffling and Yelich could use a day off. Starting Caratini made sense with the short turnaround from Saturday night, but he was still able to keep Contreras’ bat in the lineup. As for the bullpen moves, I assume Williams, Milner, and Megill were available in emergencies only. That reduced the available options for the late innings. Going into the 7th with a 2-1 lead there is room for second guessing, but with at least 3 more innings to cover, Counsell tried to squeeze another inning, or at least another couple of outs, from Miley to preserve some options for later. That obviously didn’t work out, but I think his decisions were driven by the status of pitchers in the bullpen, not the fact that the Brewers won the first two games of the series. Recognizing the two rocket hits in the sixth, I would have pulled Miley after the first HR in the seventh, but I can see why Counsell did what he did.
  11. BruisedCrew
    The site is blessed with posters who have the ability to read minds over the Internet and can decipher what people are implying even if that isn’t what their posted words say.
  12. BruisedCrew
    One of the odd things about the buildup to that final series if things stay close is that, because of the tiebreaker situation, it will make no difference if the teams are tied, or if one team or the other has a 1 game lead. In any of those situations, whoever wins the series would win the division.
  13. BruisedCrew
    I attribute the loss much more to scoring only 2 runs. Trying to nurse a 2-1 lead through 3 innings with the bullpen at less than full strength is a very dangerous proposition. Even with the bullpen at full strength the Phillies put up runs in the late innings the last two nights
  14. BruisedCrew
    That’s why I said that. If the Brewers play the Phillies it would probably be in the wild card round if the Brewers lose the division and get the first or second wild card spot and the Phillies get the other one so they are the 4 and 5 seeds.. (To be clear, I am not predicting that or assuming it will happen). Otherwise they would both have to win wild card series and knock off the Braves and Dodgers to meet in the NLCS. I wouldn’t bet on all of that happening.
  15. BruisedCrew
    The odds are heavily against the Brewers facing the Phillies in a playoff series.
  16. BruisedCrew
    They don’t have to harp on his slump, but I think it’s time for the announcers to stop talking about Yelich like he’s hitting well.
  17. BruisedCrew
    Maybe Wilson has the Garza Yips.
  18. BruisedCrew
    We can say that he wouldn’t have gotten out of the inning with one pitch if he had started the inning. I didn’t say Uribe shouldn’t start an inning. I was just responding to a poster who said something to the effect of “why wouldn’t you have him start an inning”. I suspect that his outing last Sunday gave Counsell some pause about bringing him in today. I would have lifted Miley after the Bohm HR, but I can see why Counsell tried to squeeze more out of him with Milner and Williams presumably unavailable Just to be clear, what is your point? Are you saying that Uribe should ONLY be used to start innings and NEVER with runners on base. Or that he can be used either way? If it’s the latter you agree with me.
  19. BruisedCrew
    His “hot” streaks haven’t been lasting too long.
  20. BruisedCrew
    You’re just arguing in circles now. He certainly wouldn’t have gotten out of the inning in one pitch if he started the inning. But after that one pitch he ran into some problems. So, having him start the inning last week didn’t work out. Bringing him in today with a runner on base could have worked out. Those two outings together don’t suggest that he should only be used to start an inning. But, with a pitcher who can be wild there is going to be risk either way.
  21. BruisedCrew
    I don’t necessarily prefer it, but he would have been out of this inning with one pitch if Turang turns the DP. So he can be used with runners in base.
  22. BruisedCrew
    The games the last two Sundays say it is.
  23. BruisedCrew
    Either way it’s a risk.
  24. BruisedCrew
    His inning against the Padres with a 10-4 lead might be one reason to hesitate.
  25. BruisedCrew
    And that’s what happens when you give them extra outs. Looks like this might be a Meatloaf series.
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