BruisedCrew

Now that the Cubs have erased most of the 4 1/2 game lead the Brewers had Sunday morning, I'm revisiting the issue of remaining schedules. Focusing on the next 18 days leading up to the final week of the season, both teams play 5 series. The Cubs have: Ariz (4), @Colo (3), @Ariz (3), Pit (3), Col (3). The Brewers have: @NYY (3), Mia (4), Wash (3), @SL (4), @Mia (3) The Cubs have 3 series (10 games) at home and 2 series (6 games) on the road, The Brewers have 2 series (7 games) at home, and 3 series (10 games) on the road. Breaking down these schedules, I see the respective home and home series against the DBacks and Marlins to be basically a wash. Both teams are squarely in the hunt for the last wild card spot with only a half game separating them and the Reds. Both teams have struggled since the ASB (9 games under .500), though the Marlins have shown some life recently, winning 6 in a row including wins over the Dodgers the last two nights. The Marlins could also be affected by IL stints for Alcantara and Soler. The Cubs real potential advantage comes from their home and home series with the Rockies, who have the worst record in the NL by 10 games with a run differential of -210. They also have the worst record in the league since the ASB. It stings that the Brewers lost 4 of 6 to that team; hoping for help from them is likely futile. Meanwhile the Brewers' "worst" opponents during this period are the Cardinals and the Nats, who have gone 27-23 since the ASB. Not good teams, but not Rockies level bad. The other series for the Cubs is at home against the Pirates, while the Brewers have the road series against the Yankees. Again, advantage Cubs. The last series before the season ending head to head series are the Cubs at Atlanta and the Brewers at home against the Cardinals. On paper, this looks like an advantage for the Brewers but, as has been covered, it remains to be seen how focused the Braves will be in that final week. Put it all together and I'm still not seeing any significant advantage for either team but, if anything, I think the Cubs have an edge. The probability of the division race coming down to the last weekend has increased significantly in the last 10 days. The Brewers are probably going to have to play better in these next 5 series than they have in the last 3 to maintain their division lead going into the final week. I am concerned that the Brewers having to play these 17 games without an off day could put more stress on a bullpen that has been less than rock solid recently. The Cubs are in the middle of a stretch of 14 games in 13 days, but they will then have two off days before the final week.

The Dodgers first playoff opponent will likely be either the Phillies, Cubs, or Brewers. Those teams all have weaknesses of their own. Sure, the Dodgers could get knocked out in that round, but with their lineup they’ll be favored against whoever they play.

What about a team that scored a total of 3 runs on10 hits in games started by Miller, Kershaw, and Lynn?

In 4 days the Fangraphs projection for the Brewers winning the division has dropped from 89% to 67%. They still show the Brewers with a 97% chance of making the playoffs.

They were in danger when I posted that after Zach Davies gave up 5 runs in 3 innings to put them behind 5-1. So now the DBacks are 23-35 since July 1.

The way things are trending the most likely scenario in the WC round would be the 2nd place team in the division playing the Phillies and the winner of the division playing whoever emerges as the final WC team. The Brewers are still 5 games ahead of the final wild card spot. If they fall that far they would probably be in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. Those 7 games against the Marlins are looming large. Note: I am NOT expecting or assuming that the Brewers are not going to win the division or that they are going to miss the playoffs.

As the Cubs polish off their sweep of the Giants, the next hurdle in their supposedly more difficult schedule is the DBacks, who are threatening to lose their 8th of their last 11. The DBacks have gone 22-35 since July 1, which is even worse than the Giants 24-34.

Meanwhile Hicks is cruising into the 7th inning with a shutout over the Giants. I don’t think waiting for the Cubs pitching to collapse is going to be a good idea.

It often is.

I wasn’t done with my post because this site often resets. I had to add the second sentence later. I was referring to the 3-1 pitch that he swung out of his shoes chasing.

Contreras trying to hit one 5 miles wasn’t the best idea when a walk would have put the tying run in scoring position. But I guess after that last “strike” you never know how Bucknor would have called the ball 4 that he swung at.

Cubs are showing what to do when you score 3 in the first

The Brewers announcers were saying that in about the 5th inning today.

Kind of calls into question the notion that nobody would want to face the Brewers in a playoff series because of those 3 starters. That is more than offset by the idea that most playoff teams would much rather face the Brewers batting order than that of any of the other playoff teams.

It wasn’t awful but when an ace pitcher is staked to a 3 run lead against a supposedly weak team and can’t even pull off a quality start, it is not good.

Cubs already up 3-0 on the Giants. Looks like the Brewers will need to pull this one out just to lose one game off their lead in this series.

Peralta didn’t do what was needed today.

I don’t feel comfortable trying to nurse those 3 runs through the whole game.

I would think translating BABIP from the minors to MLB would be a tough proposition. In addition to it being more difficult to make hard contact against MLB pitching, MLB fielding is likely to be a lot better. Whenever I hear someone say a player has hit everywhere he has played, a picture of Hiura immediately pops into my head. I’m very much in the “show me” camp when it comes to expectations for rookies, and IMHO Frelick is in the early stages of that evaluation. That having been said, while I would put Canha fourth before Frelick, neither is a vintage cleanup hitter so who goes fourth and who goes sixth probably doesn’t make mush difference. But, with the bases loaded I’d rather have either before Adames.

Still going to see Williams tonight.

Now need Woodruff to shut them down and squeeze the last ounce of life out of them.

I’m a disciple of the Mr. Applegate philosophy: ”Never feel sorry for anybody”.

Monasterio gets the lid off and now some luck.

I suppose we should be grateful to get one run with bases loaded with none out and the cleanup hitter up.

Looking like Woodruff might have to be near perfect just to keep the Brewers in the game.