Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

CheeseheadInQC

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,490

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    7

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

News

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects Ranking

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

Milwaukee Brewers Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Blog Entries posted by CheeseheadInQC

  1. CheeseheadInQC
    It was, by most measures, an amazingly successful season.
    The best record in their league. A team record for wins. Significant contributions from rookies both at the plate and on the mound.
    That they were unceremoniously knocked out of the playoffs by a team with a much higher payroll was the only blemish on an amazing team effort.
    And it was a true team effort. They had no position players in the top 10 in their league in fWAR. The same held true to their pitching staff.
    Yet despite this, they posted the second best run total in the league on offense. An early season acquisition, who many doubted could be a successful MLB starter, stabilized the rotation during a key stretch as the pitching staff held opponents to the second fewest runs in the league as well.
    Yes, all in all it was a great 2021 season for the Tampa Bay Rays.
    Yes, the 2021 Rays.
    Who did you think I was talking about?
    The question for us is what lessons the Rays' efforts to continue their success can teach us about the Brewers' obstacles after a remarkably similar season?
    Things to Watch Out For
    The following season did not go nearly as well for the Rays. While they squeaked into the playoffs, they totaled 14 fewer wins and finished third in their division.
    There are a number of lessons that can be drawn from this.
    Beware the Regression Candidates
    When your success relies on being good across the board, downturns can have an outsized impact on the team.
    Mike Zunino hadn't posted a wRC+ about 100 since 2017 heading into the 2021 season. He proceeded to hit 33 home runs and have perhaps his best offensive season. The chances of him repeating that was slim-to-none, but it went worse than the Rays could have imagined. He scuffled to a .499 OPS in 36 games before injury ended his season.
    Zunino was the most obvious, and his fall the most painful for the Rays, but he wasn't the only one. His backup, Francisco Mejia, posted career-best numbers in 2021 and finally looked like he might be justifying some of the prospect hype that had followed him early in his career. In an expanded role, however, his numbers slid and he fell back to barely above replacement level.
    Similarly, the Rays suffered dual dropoffs in the outfield. Kevin Kiermeier hadn't had a 100+ since 2017 when he managed to do so in 2021. The following year he failed to repeat that feat while playing in barely over 60 games. Brett Phillips had a career year as Kiermeier's backup in 2021, posting 2.2 fWAR. He then managed a sub-.600 OPS in 200+ at-bats in 2022.
    While they weren't as obvious of regression candidates, the Rays did benefit from trading two players who were among their cornerstones from 2019-2021, Austin Meadows and Joey Wendle, before their production cratered the following season. Getting Isaac Paredes for Meadows certainly helped stabilize the offense a bit in 2022.
    Potential Brewers Analogs: Andrew Vaughn provided a huge spark to the Brewers after coming over in a trade from the White Sox. It was also possibly the best stretch of his career to date. He posted a better strikeout rate and a better walk rate with the Brewers than in any of his years in Chicago and hit for more power, too.
    Maybe the Brewers really did unlock something in Vaughn's approach that is going to lead to him unlocking his hitting talent on a more consistent basis in Milwaukee than he did in Chicago. It also might end up being an anomaly, although even the pre-2024 version of Vaughn would give the Brewers much more than the Rays got from Zunino.
    Sal Frelick, while younger, could be an analog for Kiermeier. A great defender, Frelick outperformed his peripherals enough where he might have to make improvements just to maintain his offensive output from 2025.
    The Brewers, however, traded two of their more likely regression candidates in Isaac Collins and Caleb Durbin. If the pair do regress, it could prove prescient. They still, however, will have to find a way to make up for the lost production from 2025 even if that production wouldn't have carried over to 2026.
    Stay Good at What You're Good At
    The Rays finished 2021 fifth in the majors in ISO and tied for sixth in home runs. Zunino and Brandon Lowe combined for 72 by themselves.
    2022 was a different story. With those two players missing time with injuries, they fell to 22nd in ISO and 25th in home runs. They also dropped from 3rd to 11th in Fangraph's baserunning metric.
    Similarly, their bullpen dropped from tops in the AL in situational wins to merely solid.
    Brewers Analogs: For the Brewers, this primarily comes down to two things: get on base and create havoc once you are there. The Brewers were second in OPS last year and first in Fangraphs' baserunning metric.
    Swapping out Durbin for Rengifo likely hurts from a base running perspective, although getting Hamilton could balance things out.
    There also exists the possibility that the Brewers could do what the Rays could not: improve on their weakness to balance out some regression in their strength.
    A full season of Vaughn, a healed Contreras, and, well, whatever has happened with Jake Bauers could make the Brewers closer to average power-wise this year.
    On the pitching side, they potentially managed to make their strength, arguably the second-best bullpen in the NL last season, given the early returns on Angel Zerpa. Staying healthy and maintaining the level of production (always a big if when it comes to relievers) will be the keys.
    Get Production from Rookies
    Inevitably, especially on small market teams like Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, rookies will be forced into action during the season whether you plan on it or not. When your success relies on getting production across the board, you have to get quality at-bats or innings from them.
    Tampa Bay did not in 2022.
    Of the players who started the year in the Rays system, Josh Lowe's 81 wRC+ was the high water mark. On the pitching side among this group, the top performer by fWAR was up-down reliever Phoenix Sanders, who the Rays DFA'd in August. The only notable performance was top prospect Shane Baz's six starts in which he managed a 5.00 ERA.
    The best rookie production came from two in-season acquisitions, center field defensive specialist Jose Siri and reliever Garrett Cleavinger.
    Brewers Analogs: The Brewers probably will struggle if they don't get meaningful contributions from rookies, especially on the pitching side. Thankfully I doubt they will.
    On the other hand, I doubt the Rays thought Baz would only pitch in 10 games between AAA and the majors and Vidal Brujan would struggle mightily.
    Brandon Sproat might be the only rookie on the opening day roster, but the Brewers will likely also need contributions from at least some of Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, Craig Yoho, Shane Drohan, Coleman Crow, Carlos Rodriguez, or other pitchers who aren't on the 40-man. Hitters like Jett Williams could end up being called upon as well. Their success will be crucial.
    Don't Be Afraid to Fill Holes Via Trade
    One thing the Rays did right was filling the holes on their roster via trade. While neither were big-name acquisitions, the trades for Siri and catcher Christian Bethancourt filled significant needs on the Rays' roster. Bethancourt in particular had one of the best stretches of his career for Tampa Bay.
    If it is the right deal, even small deals can make a load of difference.
    Hope a Star Emerges
    Here's the thing: no team chooses to try to win without a top 10 player in the league. Sometimes it just happens. But I'm sure that the Brewers are hoping that at least one of William Contreras, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio and company can crack that list this year.
    Tampa Bay, however, once again did not have a top 10 player in 2022 (Shane McClanahan was close on the pitching side, but Yandy Diaz at 23rd was tops among the hitters). And they still managed to make the playoffs again. Still, though, things will be a lot easier for the Brewers if someone steps up and either becomes a star offensively or takes the place of their one top-10 finisher from 2025, Freddy Peralta, on the pitching side.
    In the end, the Rays, in making the playoffs, albeit with a lesser record, in 2022 showed both the pitfalls and possibilities of trying to win with a balanced team approach. Now it is up to the Brewers to at least try to match their results.
     
  2. CheeseheadInQC
    A while back, one of the posters made a simple statement in the forums: The Brewers must have the top group of teenage prospects in baseball. I thought, well, that sounds likely given the number and quality of teen prospects the Brewers have. It’s tough to know for sure, though, if you don’t look at all the other systems.
    So that is how I started this monstrosity.
    I’m breaking it up into three parts. The first, this one, will focus on the American League. The second will focus on the NL East and NL West. The final one will focus on the Brewers, the rest of the NL Central, and closing thoughts.
    First, though, some ground rules. Because I am writing this over a period of time, “teenager” will be anyone who hadn’t turned 20 by the time the clock struck midnight on New Year’s. I will not be including the upcoming IFA class in the later entries.
    Also, except where noted, the Fangraphs and MLB prospect rankings are the post-draft updates from last year. It’s not ideal, but they are two of the bigger not-behind-paywall rankings, so I stuck with them, although I mention the publicly available Baseball America team chats occasionally. Also, because I am writing this in bits and pieces, the level of detail will vary from team to team. My apologies to the Orioles. Also, I usually edit myself a bit at least, but I've got two more of these to go, so I'm just apologizing for any typos ahead of time (and given that a 6-year-old found it hilarious to occasionally just start shouting gibberish in my ear as I typed, there will be some typos).
    So on with the show.
    AL East
    Baltimore Orioles: Lots of Quantity at Least
    Ranked Prospects: Stiven Martinez OF (MLB 9, FG 40); Thomas Sosa OF (MLB 14); Braylin Tavera OF (MLB 15); Joshua Liranzo 3B (MLB 19); Leandro Arias SS (MLB 20, FG 14); Emilio Sanchez SS, (MLB 23, FG 15); Esteban Mejia, P (MLB 17); Keeler Morfe, P (MLB 26); Jordan Sanchez, OF (MLB 27, FG 21); Aron Estrada INF (MLB 28); DJ Layton, SS (MLB 29); Luis Almeyda, SS (MLB 30); Miguel Rodriguez, C (FG 24)
    Where to begin. Lots of intriguing young talent without that one premier prospect to lead it. Martinez, apparently has high upside and good stats, but also struck out 30% of the time in the DSL. A number of the guys also struggled and might fall on 2025 lists (Braylin Tavera, Emilio Sanchez, Luis Almeyda). Many, though, are genuinely intriguing, and the BA Orioles chat is peppered with mentions of Arias, Sosa, Estrada, Morfe, Mejia and Liranzo. Lots of guys who either excelled or held their own against older competition
    Others of note: Outside of pitcher Andres Parra’s strong Complex League performance and Jesus Palacios’ K rate there, there isn’t much not already listed stateside. The Orioles had a really good DSL season, but unlike the Brewers, a lot of the top hitters that haven’t been mentioned were repeating, with Elvin Garcia, Saul Gomez and Hector Campusano being the exceptions. They did have a really good DSL pitching group as well, with Reykelly Rubi, Kevin Velasco, Javier Gonzalez and Luis Espinoza putting together really good seasons. Their other overslot prep pick in 2024 (along with Layton) was outfielder Nate George.
    Overview: The Orioles have a lot of intriguing teens, but with Basallo now in his 20s, there really isn’t that top prospect to hang this profile around. I’ll take the Orioles’ depth over some of the one- or two-and-done groups, but it is tough to rank them toward the top without a player that really even fits into their own top 10.
    Boston Red Sox: Strong Recent DSL Classes
    Ranked Prospects: Franklin Arias, SS (MLB 4, FG 31); Yoelin Cespedes, SS (MLB 5, FG 12); Nazzan Zanetello, SS (MLB 13, FG 35); Conrad Cason, P/SS (MLB 15); Juan Valera, P (MLB 20); Dalvinson Reyes, P (MLB 29); Antonio Anderson, 3B (FG 23); Starlyn Nunez, SS (FG 26); Andruw Musett, C (FG 37)
    Arias and Cespedes are both probably top-10 prospects in their system at this point coming off big Complex League seasons to follow big DSL debuts (Arias also held his own in A ball). Arias has found his way into the bottom of the top 100 on a number of lists including Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Zanetello is a big money signing from the 2023 draft who has really struggled since turning pro. Cason is a $1 million-plus two-way player signing from the 2024 draft. Valera might be the best outside of the top two at least results wise, shutting teams down in both the Complex League and in A-ball. Reyes pitched 17 quality DSL innings. Anderson is a $1.5 million prep signing from the 2023 draft who really struggled in A ball. Nunez had a bit of a disappointing FCL season, while Musett was pretty good in the FCL before struggling in an A-ball call up.
    Others of Note: Catcher Gerardo Rodriguez, who was really good in the FCL and a late low-A callup, is probably the best of the other stateside teens. Pitchers Wuilliams Rodriguez and Adam Bates had solid Complex League seasons as well. On the mound, Jesus Travieso, Yodrian Beltre, Greider Colina, Jose Martinez, Jeison Payano, and Yermain Ruiz turned in solid seasons. While there might not have a Made or Pena in the bunch, The Red Sox’s 2024 IFA signing class turned in a lot of good debut seasons, including Justin Gonzalez (140 wRC+), Avinson Pinto, Edwin Brito, Anderson Fermin and Ilan Fernandez. Yhoiker Fajardo, who they acquired in a trade with the White Sox, was singled out by Baseball America as perhaps the only intriguing White Sox DSL player.
    Overview: Really good depth from the last couple of DSL groups, and a decent top couple, but the struggles of the 2023 draft preps on this list and only Cason really from the 2024 draft group makes the middle a bit weaker than it feels like it should be given some of the IFA success.
    Tampa Bay Rays: It’s the Rays, What Do You Expect?
    Ranked Prospects: Trevor Harrison, P (MLB 25, FG 50); Santiago Suarez, P (MLB 8, FG 14); Brailer Guerrero, OF (MLB 6, FG 4); Theo Gillen, OF (MLB 5, FG 6); Adrian Santana, SS (MLB 15, FG 21); JD Gonzalez, C (MLB 27, FG 58); Jose Urbina, P (MLB 29, FG 41); Angel Brachi, 2B (FG 39); Leonardo Pineda, OF (FG 40); Nathan Flewelling, C (FG 59)
    Baseball America’s chat inferred that Harrison, Suarez, Guerrero and Gillen were all getting top 100 consideration, making the top of this group pretty stellar. Suarez and Harrison both put together really good low-A seasons (with Suarez’s being a full year). Guerrero, who has battled shoulder problems in each of his first two seasons, had great Complex League stats and apparently high exit velocities but also moderately high K rates before being shut down by injury. Gillen will be familiar to those who follow the draft as the bat-first prep pick was considered a possible Brewers first rounder (he went one pick after Payne). After those four, Urbina might be the most promising, with the Rays having him skip the DSL last season and giving him four low-A starts this season. The results haven’t been disastrous, but they haven’t been particularly noteworthy either. Santana, the Rays’ 2023 competitive balance first rounder, scuffled in low-A and trade acquisition Gonzalez fared even worse. Pineda, the Rays’ top 2024 IFA signing, had a Jorge Quintana-like season – solid, but nothing that really stood out – while Brachi struggled in the DSL. Flewelling was a prep third rounder in 2024.
    Others of Note: 2023 Canadian prep pick Jeremy Pilon had success in the FCL and low-A with big K numbers but matched them with high walk totals. After a shrug-inducing FCL campaign in 2023, outfielder Angel Mateo had a league average low-A season as a 19-year-old. Roberto Medina had probably the best of the FCL seasons of the Rays’ teens with 10+ K/9 but also 6+ BB/9. Domingo Batista was the best of the Rays’ 2024 IFA group in the DSL with a 135 wRC+ but a concerning 25+% K rate. Alfonzo Martinez and Jose Tovar had solid second DSL seasons at the plate. Pitching-wise, Miguel Toscano was solid (3.15 ERA, 3.93 FIP) but didn’t miss many bats (6 K/9) in his second DSL season.
    Overview: The top four is going to be among the best in baseball, period. And having two teenage pitchers as highly thought of (and with the results to back it up) as Harrison and Suarez is rare. After that, though, the system feels lighter than I was expecting. It’s the Rays, so Urbina, Pineda and Pilon will probably all break out next season, but for now, this feels fairly top heavy (albeit with a really good top tier). 
    Toronto Blue Jays: Big drop after Nimmala
    Ranked Prospects: Arjun Nimmala, SS (MLB 5, FG 11); Enmanuel Bonilla, OF (MLB 13, FG 12); Johnny King, P (MLB 15, FG 36); Carson Messina, P (30 MLB); Andres Arias, OF (FG 18); Sam Shaw, 2B (FG 35); Franklin Rojas, C (FG 36).
    Nimmala showed big time power to go with a 30+% K rate during his first full season. King (3rd round) & Messina (12th) were above-slot signings in the 2024 draft who got a lot of praise on the BA Blue Jays chat. Bonilla shined in the DSL in 2023 but struggled mightily in the Complex League in 2024 (35% K Rate, .556 OPS). Arias missed much of the DSL season with injury, but put together strong results in limited plate appearances. Shaw was a 2023 prep pick whose Complex League season was similar to the Brewers’ Luiyin Alastre (very few strikeouts but not a ton of production either). Rojas posted solid DSL results, walking more than he struck out.
    Others of Note: Stateside, the top performers were trade acquisition Gilberto Batista and fellow pitcher Luis Torres, who both performed reasonably well in low-A. Outfielder Jean Joseph has below average output but did make it to A-ball as a teen. Catcher Randy Soto was singled out as the most interesting player on the Blue Jays’ DSL squad by Baseball America, which otherwise was pretty down on Toronto’s DSL team. Soto was an on-base machine, reaching in nearly half his plate appearances thanks to a 22% walk rate and 14 HBP. Other solid performers included first-year players Juarlin Soto, Rafael Flores and Pascual Archila, all high OPS lower power seasons with OK but not exceptional K rates. Returning first baseman Aldo Gaxiola supplied most of the power. Rookie Angel Rivero and returnees Eduar Gonzalez and Sann Omosako had the best seasons on the mound.
    Overview: Nimmala’s got his warts (K Rate) but also has a high ceiling. Too much of this group’s potential, however, is riding on the 2024 draft arms to lift it out of the lower tier of teams.
    New York Yankees: Lombard and … well …
    Ranked Prospects: George Lombard, SS (Fangraphs 6, MLB 3); Brandon Mayea, OF (FG 8, MLB 14); Francisco Vilorio, OF (FG 15, MLB 15); Edgleen Perez, C (FG 12, MLB 16); Richard Matic, 3B (FG 25); Gabriel Terrero, 2B (29 FG); Jerson Alejandro, P (36 FG)
    Lombard scuffled a bit at High-A but is still a legitimately good prospect. Unfortunately for the Yankees, with one exception, most of the rest of these guys took a step back in 2024. Mayea was OK in the Complex League, but not the kind of performance expected from the Yankees’ big money 2023 IFA signing. Vilorio, their top 2024 IFA signing, had a pretty poor debut marked by a big strikeout rate. Matic didn’t do much in the DSL either. The undersized Terrero was good but saw his power wane in his move stateside and Alejandro racked up a lot of K’s but a ton of walks in repeating the DSL. The exception was Perez, a catcher noted for his defense who improved upon his DSL offensive showing offensively, walking more than he struck out in the Complex League. This is where the Brewers hope Corobo is after 2025.
    Others of note: Not much on the pitching side. I believe the only stateside teen was Omar Gonzalez, whose K rate plummeted without a similar drop in walk rate. On the DSL side, Franyer Herrera had a good year after tallying just over 20 innings total in his first two DSL seasons, and Alexander Almonte got a mention in the Yankees’ Baseball America Prospect chat. The Yankees’ top performing first-year DSL hitters were arguably catchers Queni Pineda (who also got a BA chat mention) and Carlos Villarroal, although the time spent at 1B and the caught stealing numbers make me skeptical the latter sticks at catcher. Luis Puello moved behind the plate in his second DSL season and flourished with the bat, and Luis Escudero probably shouldn’t have repeated in the DR and proved it.
    Overview: Lombard’s a good prospect and Perez is the type of guy I would really be touting if he were with the Brewers, but outside of those two there isn’t a ton. Didn’t help that they didn’t sign a single high schooler from the 2024 draft. Catching is the obvious strength at the lower levels.
    AL Central
    Chicago White Sox: A Few Big Swings At Least
    Rated Prospects: George Wolkow 1B/OF (MLB 9, FG 19); Caleb Bonemar, 3B (MLB 12, FG 24); Blake Larson, P (MLB 20, FG 28); Javier Mogollon, 2B (FG 27); Eduardo Herrera (FG 32)
    Wolkow and Mogollon look nothing alike, but the 6-7 1B/OF and the 5-8 middle infielder had similar seasons in 2024. When they hit the ball, it went a long way. It was just hitting it that was the issue. Wolkow posted a 148 wRC+ and a 38.8% strikeout rate in 15 Complex League games before getting promoted to low-A, where he posted a 126 wRC+ with a 40.6% K rate and 11 homers in 76 games. Ton of power potential, but man is that K rate concerning. Mogollon had a 134 wRC+ in the Complex League complete with 8 homers but also struck out over 38% of the time. Herrera, the White Sox’s top 2024 IFA signing, struggled in his first taste of pro ball in the DSL. Bonemar (2nd rounder, roughly $3 million bonus) and Larson (competitive balance B pick) were both 2024 draftees.
    Others of note: Luis Reyes merited a mention in the Baseball America chat, saying he’s up to 97 with the fastball in the ACL. He had a 5.74 ERA, but passable peripherals for an 18-year-old in an absurdly difficult pitching environment. Angel Bello and to some extent Jordany Chirinos kind of fit the same statistical profile, poor ERA passable peripherals in the ACL. Outfielder Abraham Nunez and corner infielder Adrian Gil didn’t excel in the ACL, but were league average and might have done enough to get them a full season look in 2025. As for the DSL, you know it is bad when the guy singled out in the Baseball America chat as the one guy who showed promise subsequently got dealt to the Red Sox. Jurdrick Profar’s 121 wRC+ in his first DSL season probably makes him the most promising member left from this group.
    Overview: The White Sox seem to have a very good system after recent trades. They just don’t have a particularly young one. High lower-level K rates scare me, so with all due respect to Bonemar and Larson, the White Sox are going to be near the bottom for me.
    Cleveland Guardians: Why Does That Name Seem Familiar?
    Jaison Chourio, OF (MLB 3, FG 4); Ralphy Velazquez, 1B (MLB 5, FG 6); Braylon Doughty, P, (MLB 7, FG 10); Welbyn Francisca, SS (MLB 9, FG 3); Joey Oakie, P (MLB 14, FG 13); Robert Arias, OF (MLB 17, FG 8); Chase Mobley, P (MLB 19, FG 21); Cameron Sullivan, P (MLB 24), Jacob Zibin, P (FG 22)
    Jackson’s younger brother Jaison has turned into quite the prospect in his own right. He won the Carolina League MVP like his older brother two years prior and is widely seen as a top 100 prospect after posting an .812 OPS in low A. Velazquez, the Guardians’ 2023 first rounder, turned in a strong first full season in Lynchburg as well with a .776 OPS before struggling in a late high-A call up. He also has been making top 100 lists. Francisca made Fangraphs’ top 100, following up a stellar DSL season with an equally strong performance in the ACL. He also performed really well late in the year in low-A. Doughty (CB1, $2.6M), Oakie (3, $2M), Mobley (10, $1.8M) and Sullivan (7, $525,000) are intriguing and in some cases big money prep arms for an organization that specializes in developing pitching. Arias had mediocre stats in the DSL but walked a lot more than he struck out and stole 29 bases.
    Others of note: The embarrassment of riches continues. Being a right-handed hitting first baseman might limit Luis Merejo’s prospect rankings but the guy posted a 123 wRC+ in the ACL in his age-18 season then upped it to a 145 wRC+ in low-A after a late season promotion. Lefty Melkis Hernandez struggled with walks after his promotion to low-A, but the 19-year-old was really good in the tough ACL pitching environment. At the Complex League level, middle infielder Jonathan Martinez posted an above average offensive stat line in his age 17 season. The DSL was very strong, with six first-year hitters posting above average offensive stats: Gabriel Rodriguez (163 wRC+), Juneiker Caceres (146), Yeiferth Castillo (112), Estivel Morillo (110), Johan Rodriguez (103), and Robert Arias (102). Returning catchers Pablo Arosemena, Reiner Herrera and Pedro Dalmagro also had very strong offensive seasons. Erigaldi Perez (poor K rate but great walk rate), Santiago Peraza and Renil Ramos (very good K rate, middling to poor walk rate) lead the pitching staff.
    Overview: The Brewers are often discussed as the NL version of the Rays, but perhaps the Guardians would be a more apt comparison for reasons beyond the Chourio brothers. Both teams’ systems have been bolstered by strong performances by some members of their recent IFA classes and neither has shied away from taking prep players early and often. Most notably both have bucked the trend of avoiding prep pitching, opting to accept the inherent risk associated with high school pitchers for the reward of getting the pitchers into their development systems at a younger age. You can debate which group of teenage prospects is better, but the roadmaps appear to be at least broadly similar. At minimum, this group is in the conversation for best in the American League.
    Detroit Tigers: What Do You Think of the 2024 Draft?
    Ranked Prospects: Bryce Rainer, SS (MLB 4, FG 5); Owen Hall, P (MLB 10, FG 10); Ethan Schiefelbein, P (MLB 12, FG 21); Franyerber Montilla (MLB 13); Enrique Jimenez, C (MLB 15, FG 24); Zach Swanson, P (MLB 24); Nestor Miranda (MLB 28, FG 36); Andrew Dunford (FG 35)
    Rainer (11th overall), Hall (2nd round), Schiefelbein (Comp B) and Swanson (9th) represent the four biggest bonuses given out by the Tigers in the 2024 draft. Rainer was the second prep selected. The others were a mixed bag. Montilla put together a really good FCL season after spending two seasons in the Dominican but managed just a .405 OPS in 20 low-A games. Still, he apparently barely missed the BA top 10. Jimenez’s stateside debut was solid in the FCL (108 wRC+), although the strikeouts did jump a bit. Miranda, a 6-3 corner infielder with massive raw power put together a wRC+ in the DSL that was more driven by walks than power. Between his 26.7% walk rate and his 33.7% K rate in 86 at bats, he put the ball in play in fewer than 40% of his plate appearances. Dunford, a 2023 draft pick, pitched just ⅓ of an inning in the FCL in an injury-marred season.
    Others of Note: Not a lot else stateside. Blake Dickerson, acquired for international bonus pool money, had a solid ERA but mediocre peripherals in the FCL. Infielder Juan Hernandez was a regular in the FCL lineup and, at least, struck out less than some of the other teens on the team even if his 92 wRC+ wasn’t stellar. They fared better in the DSL, with five first-year teen hitters ranging from 145 to 110 in wRC+: Ronald Ramirez, Jesus Pinto, Jose Dickson, Luis Aguilar and Steven Madero. Four other returning teens also hit that mark. Franyerson Reyes, Kelvis Salcedo and Deibi Rodriguez led the DSL pitching staff.
    Overview: I like the DSL depth, and the draft picks give this group a high ceiling. Overall, though, this feels more like a middle tier group than a top tier one.
    Kansas City Royals: Just Not Much Here
    Ranked Prospects: David Shields, P (MLB 7, FG 19); Yandel Ricardo, SS (MLB 8, FG 11); Ramon Ramirez, C (MLB 10, FG 18); Jhonayker Ugarte (MLB 18, FG 21); Asbel Gonzalez (MLB 20)
    Perhaps the best thing about this group is that it feels like none of them took a significant step back last year. Ricardo’s poor BABIP made what otherwise seemed like it should have been an above average DSL season into a below average one, but it wasn’t like he was overwhelmed. Ramirez wasn’t as dominant offensively stateside as he was in the DSL, but he was still above average in the Complex League. A falling caught stealing rate bears watching. Nothing in Ugarte’s DSL stats particularly stood out, but it added up to a 130 wRC+. Gonzalez was above average in the ACL in his first stateside season. Shields was a $2.3 million prep signing as KC’s second round pick.
    Other Prospects of Note: Pitcher Kyle DeGroat and outfielder Corey Cousin were both above slot (about $350,000 each) day 3 prep signings. Beyond that it is sparse. Neither Jorge Hernandez nor Roni Cabrera hit terribly well in the ACL, but at least they spent their whole age 18 season there. 1B Jose Cerise had a 119 wRC+ with a lot of contact in his debut DSL season, but that debut came as a 19 year old and he almost never walked.The other above average DSL teen, Daniel Jose Lopez, actually took a step backward from last season. Perhaps the most promising unranked DSL prospect statistically was staff ace Marwys Cabrera, but even his 4.81 walks per nine were a bit high.
    Overview: Shields is a really interesting draft pick, but overall this group is really thin.
    Minnesota Twins: Home to the Top Rated Teen Prospect in Baseball
    Ranked Prospects: Walker Jenkins, OF (MLB 1, FG 1); Charlee Soto, P (MLB 8, FG 14); Dasan Hill, P (MLB 10, FG 7); Eduardo Beltre, OF (MLB 24, FG 31); Dameury Pena, 2B (MLB 25, FG 6); Adrian Bohorquez, P (MLB 29, FG 16); Daiber De Los Santos, SS (FG 11); Yoel Roque, P (FG 18); Hendry Chivilli, SS (FG 22); Byron Chourio, OF (FG 23); Ariel Castro, OF (FG 40)
    If there is an AL team that can compete with Cleveland as far as depth and top-level teenage talent in the minors, it might be their division rival Minnesota. Jenkins is often listed as a top-5 prospect in all of baseball. Soto, despite a mediocre ERA, turned in a strong A ball season with peripherals similar to the guy picked one pick before him, Josh Knoth. 2024 second-rounder Hill, a $2 million signee, was a guy Fangraphs loved at draft time. Adrian Bohorquez also posted strong numbers at low-A (and in the Complex League) on the mound with 4.58 BB/9 being balanced out by a 10.53 K rate for a 3.23 ERA between the two levels. The Twins’ Chourio didn’t fare as well at low-A as the pitchers, tallying just a .548 OPS. Among the Complex Leaguers, Pena, according to the Baseball America chat, has no real defensive home but just keeps hitting, following up his 6.5% K rate in the DSL with a 6.4% rate last season. On the other side of the spectrum are Civilli and Castro, whose 2023 struggles with strikeouts in the DSL continued in the ACL as he again failed to break the 30% mark. In the DSL, Beltre was right up there with the Brewers’ pair as far as DSL offensive impact with 11 home runs but perhaps a bit higher K rate than you would like to see in the DSL (23.8%). De Los Santos, praised for his upside, had bigger K issues, tallying in at 31%. He also, however, posted a 127 wRC+, so he managed to contribute in spite of the swing and miss. Fangraphs loved the upside of Roque, who missed plenty of bats in striking out better than 12 per nine. Unfortunately he also missed the plate too much, walking more than 10 per nine.
    Others of Note: Although he struggled there (78 wRC+), Daniel Pena at least reached low-A and kept the K rate to a reasonable number (although given he only caught 5 of 68 base stealers, I’m not sure he sticks behind the plate. In the Complex League, the star was catcher Ricardo Pena, who tallied a .969 OPS behind a .360 average and a lot of walks. Speaking of high walk rates, Bryan Acuna’s second go-around in the ACL went better than the first with a 120 wRC+ and Yilber Herrera almost matched him with a 117. Jayson Bass posted nearly league average numbers in his stateside debut as well. Miguel Cordero was the most impressive of the other teen pitchers in the ACL for the Twins, with a respectable 4.53 FIP behind a 6.97 ERA. In the DSL, Ricardo Paez (.813 OPS), Murphy Hernandez (.806) and Luis Fragoza (.784) all had strong seasons in each of their debuts. Melvin Rodriguez’s DSL debut season went well to the tune of a 2.72 ERA and a 4.0 K/BB rate. Cristian Hernandez rode 13.50 K/9 to strong results despite a 6.2 BB/9 rate.
    Overview: The system’s teen hitters, outside of Jenkins and Dameury Pena, strike out more than I’m generally comfortable with, but Jenkins is likely the best of the prospects covered in this post, and Soto, Hill and Bohorquez form a really intriguing mound trio.
    AL West
    Houston Astros: Insert Trash Can Joke Here
    Ranked Prospects: Kenni Gomez, OF (MLB 21); Jancel Villarroel, C (MLB 27, FG 24); Nehomar Ochoa Jr., OF (MLB 28); Waner Luciano, 3B (MLB 30, FG 17); Camilo Diaz, 3B (FG 8); Esmil Valencia, OF (FG 21); Christopher Gonzalez, OF (FG 23); Raimy Rodriguez, P (FG 27)
    The Good: Kenni Gomez had a 121 wRC+in low-A before struggling with strikeouts in a late high-A call up. Villarroel also held his own in A ball after getting promoted from the Complex League and Ochoa also produced a slightly better than average offensive season for Carolina League. The bad: Baseball America said Gomez struggled too much against spin to bother ranking him in the top 30 IN THE ASTROS SYSTEM. Ochoa was similarly singled out for struggling against breaking balls after striking out almost 30% of the time. And finally, Fangraphs said it was too early to tell if the 5-8 Villarroel would stick at catcher. And those were the top performers. The power Luciano showed in the Complex League in 2023 evaporated in A ball, leading to a 75 wRC+. Diaz, a $2.3 million IFA signing from 2023, struck out more than 40% of the time in the FCL. Valencia followed a not-quite-average DSL season with a not-quite-average FCL season most noteworthy for only walking at a 3.1% clip. Gonzalez’s BABIP tanked during a repeat of the DSL, sending his wRC+ tumbling from 118 in 2023 to 60 in 2024. Raimy Rodriguez threw 82 ⅔ innings in low-A in his age 18 season, which is in and of itself an accomplishment. Unfortunately for Rodriguez, his trend of his walks increasing with each minor league stop continued as he issued free passes at an 8.27/9 clip.
    Others of Note: Not a ton here either. Karniel Pratt somehow posted a 134 wRC+ in the FCL while striking out 36% of the time and only hitting one homer. Catcher Carlos Cauro was average at the plate in the FCL, but threw out only one out of every 14 attempted base stealers while behind it. Even in the DSL, their top 3 performers were all repeaters, Sandro Pereira, Juan Sierra and Luis Quesada, and Pereira and Quesada were arguably better last year when they didn’t get promoted. Pitcher Anthony Gantes, who tallied a 2.52 ERA, was probably the best performer among the new DSLers. The only high school pick they signed in 2024 was a $150,000 17th round pick named Ethan Wagern. 
    Overview: I’ve spent too much time on them already.
    Los Angeles Angels: Better Than I Expected
    Ranked Players (Fangraphs 2025 report): Nelson Rada, OF (MLB 4, FG 4); Joswa Lugo, SS (MLB 6, FG 16); Dario Leverde, C (MLB 9, FG 15); Trey Gregory-Alford, P (MLB 13); Felix Morrobel, SS (MLB 14, FG 33); Juan Flores, C (MLB 17, FG 13); Dylan Jordan, P (MLB, 18, FG 14); Capri Ortiz, SS (MLB 19, FG 18); Randy De Jesus, OF (MLB 23); Hayden Alvarez, OF (MLB 25, FG 23); Dioris De La Rosa, P (MLB 27); Ubaldo Soto, P (MLB 28, FG 38); Anyelo Marquez, 2B (FG 25); Bryan Martinez, OF (FG 34); Francis Texido, P (FG 39)
    The Angels had Rada skip high-A and he predictably looked overmatched in AA. On paper he seems like a slightly taller version of Luis Lara, but he was generating a fair amount of prospect buzz last season. Flores had a strong season for his age going in low-A but struggled upon being moved to high-A. Overall, though, not bad for a defense-first catcher who skipped the Complex League. The Angels had three others from this list perform well in low-A. Flores’ fellow catcher Laverde posted a .756 OPS, although it was only good for a 106 wRC+ because, well, the California League. His batted ball profile is Jadher Areinamo-esque, spraying line drives to all fields and his 22% K-rate, while far from ideal, only trailed Flores among the Inland Empire teens. After a disastrous Complex League stint in 2023, De Jesus had the best production, with an .811 OPS and 12 homers. He also, however, struck out almost 30% of the time. Ortiz posted league average production, which isn’t bad for a teen in A ball, but also K’d at a 27.5% clip. Morrobel made a lot of contact in tallying a League-Average Complex League Season but had only one extra base hit in 62 plate appearances with a ground ball rate that might make Hendry Mendez blush. In the DSL, Lugo was the Angels’ big 2024 IFA signing with a $2.3 million bonus. He showcased some pop in compiling an .836 OPS but also struck out 23.3% of the time and walked less than 8%. Alvarez was the other first year DSL hitter on the lists and is considered projectable. His roughly league average stat line has traits that I like in sleeper prospects. Marquez and Martinez were both repeating the DSL after disappointing first years, and both put up good stat lines. On the pitching side, Jordan (5th round) and Gregory-Alford (11th) were $1 million-plus bonus prep pitchers from the 2024 class, with Gregory-Alford almost taking home $2 million. De La Rosa and Soto had across the board good seasons in the DSL. Texido struggled in low-A after skipping the Complex League, but the team did think enough of him to send him there in the first place.
    Others of Note: Kevyn Castillo put up a .790 OPS in low-A after two DSL seasons, albeit with a 27% K rate. Jonathan Linares and Edwardo Espinal both had OK Complex League production, although it was mostly walk driven as both barely put the ball in play in half of their plate appearances. While it was aided by 14 HBPs, first baseman Jose Camacho had the best wRC+ among Angels DSLers at 138.
    Overview: Much better than I was expecting. I’m not really considering them one of the top teams for a few reasons (I’m not sure I buy Rada as a top prospect, skeptical of numbers posted at Inland Empire and too much K in too many hitters), but they are definitely not toward the bottom, either, which is where I expected them to be.
    Not Yet Vegas Athletics: Pretty weak overall
    Ranked Prospects (Fangraphs 2025 report): Steven Echavarria, P (FG 7, MLB 14); Cole Miller (FG 16, MLB 17); Myles Naylor (FG 34, MLB 15); Edgar Montero (FG 13)
    Echavarria, who got a $3 million bonus as a 3rd round pick in the 2023 draft, struggled in low-A, but the reports on his stuff were promising and he was an 18-year-old in the California League. What do you expect? Miller got a $1 million bonus as their 4th rounder in the same draft, but missed 2024 with Tommy John surgery. Naylor, a CB-A pick in 2023, failed to live up to his draft status in 2024, posting a 79 wRC+ and a nearly 35% K rate in Stockton. Montero had a few more K’s than you would like (22%) but did have 15 extra-base hits and walked a ton on his way to a 119 wRC+ in the DSL.
    Others of Note: Infielder Reinaldo De La Cruz got off to a great start in his second DSL season before an injury shut him down. Darling Fernandez turned in an all-around good offensive season in the DSL as well, although he too was repeating the level. On the pitching side, Alvin Nova struggled in the ACL before turning in three solid low-A appearances. Jefferson Jean struck out more than 16/9 in the ACL, but his high walk rate came back to haunt him in low-A when the strikeout rate fell. Franco Zabaleta had the best FIP among the A’s DSL hurlers and K’d more than 10.5/9, although the walk rate was a bit on the high side. They had two preps sign $550,000 deals in 2024, pitcher Josiah Romero (6th) and catcher Dylan Fien (7th).
    Overview: Echavarria is promising, but there just isn’t a ton here. It’s like they aimed to get ready for the eventual move to Vegas by ensuring most of their top prospects were over 21.
    Seattle Mariners: Let’s Just Focus on the Top Four
    Ranked Prospects: Colt Emerson, SS (MLB 1, FG 3); Felnin Celesten, SS (MLB 5, FG 5); Ryan Sloan, P (MLB 8, FG 8); Tai Peete, SS (MLB 11, FG 6); Jeter Martinez, P (MLB 18, FG 16); Dawel Joseph SS, (MLB 20, FG 11); Dylan Wilson, P (MLB 26); Ruddy Navarro, P (FG 30)
    If Jenkins was the top teenage prospect, Emerson is probably locked in a battle with the minor league star of the last team on this list for the No. 2 spot. While he struggled at high A (and the specter of the California League looms over his low-A stats), it was still a highly successful first full season for the Mariners’ 2023 first round pick. Celesten was the second ranked prospect in all of baseball in the 2023 IFA group. He missed all of the 2023 season with a hamstring injury, and a hamate injury ended his 2024 early, but when he was healthy he was among the best hitters in the ACL. Sloan was a $3 million signing as the Mariners’ second round pick in 2024 and received a lot of pre-draft hype. Peete, the other member of the Mariners’ top 4, was a high upside CB-A pick in 2023. He posted league-average production in low-A in 2024, but the 30+% K rate is a bit concerning. Martinez came back to earth a bit in the ACL after a stellar DSL season in 2023. His 11+ K/9 shows the promise, but his walk rate nearly doubled to 7 per 9. It was a similar story for Wilson, whose walk rate also skyrocketed in the ACL. Joseph was the Mariners’ big money IFA signing, but like basically the entire group of Mariners DSL position players, he really struggled (40 wRC+). Navarro turned in 3 stellar starts in his second DSL season but then was shut down by injury.
    Others of Note: Only two other teen position players had notable seasons: Outfielder Kelvin Alcantara, who posted a 110 wRC+ in the ACL, and catcher Eduardo Ponce, whose low K rate helped him be the only Mariners DSL player to break .700 in OPS (he had .761). The DSL pitching staff at least had a couple of solid first year performers peripherals wise. Ruben Ramirez was an older DSL debut at 19, but struck out 12+ per 9 and had a sub-4 FIP. Juan Cazarez had a great FIP but a 9 ERA thanks to having a 10.0 K/BB rate but giving up a ton of hits. Anderson Jimenez had a 6+ ERA but also struck out nearly 12 per 9 as a 16 year old.
    Overview: Much like the Rays, the Mariners have a very good 4 player group with suspect depth beyond that. They had by far the worst DSL offense in minor league baseball. They had one team and it averaged more than half a run per game less than the second worst (both Brewers squads bested it by more than two runs per game). The top talent probably makes this a top-5 group in the AL, but I don’t really see it as a contender for the No. 1 spot.
    Texas Rangers: There are a lot of good bats but …
    Ranked Prospects: Sebastien Walcott, SS (MLB 1, FG 1); Paulino Santana, OF (MLB 10, FG 16); Yolfran Castillo, SS (MLB 11); Braylin Morel, OF (MLB 20, FG 26); Yeremi Cabrera, OF (MLB 22, FG 10); Caden Scarborough (FG 19)
    After making a cameo DSL appearance last season, Walcott moved stateside, showing off a lot of extra base pop but also striking out a bunch. In 2024, the Rangers had him skip low-A and the move paid off as he posted a 123 wRC+ in high A as the K rate dropped to a still elevated but more understandable 25%. Cabrera had a great ACL campaign to follow a great second DSL season, but he never really adjusted to low-A, failing to clear .550 OPS in nearly 100 at-bats. Morel posted quality pop in the ACL after a great DSL debut in 2023. Castillo had one of the more interesting debuts from the 2024 IFA class. In 20 DSL games, he had a walk to strikeout rate of 2.75 and reached base at a .552 clip. He ended up at least holding his own in 15 games in the ACL after a midseason promotion, carried by a .333 batting average and a strikeout rate that ticked up from the DSL but was still only 10.6%. This is extreme hit over power so far, though. He tallied only five extra base hits, all doubles, and only one in the ACL. Santana is kind of a regression toward the mean version of Castillo stat-wise. He walked more than he struck out, but not to the same absurd degree. He tallied a few more extra base hits than Castillo, but not a ton more. Both are considered among the Rangers’ best prospects. Scarborough, the only pitcher on either list. The 2023 sixth-rounder only threw 10 ⅓ innings between the ACL and low-A tallying impressive K rates but less impressive walk rates.
    Others of Note: Prep shortstop Devin Fitz-Gerald was a $900,000 fifth round signing from a 2024 class that included only one other prep signee (Catcher Josh Springer, 12th, $200K). Among hitters who reached A ball, catcher Jesus Lopez was slightly below league average offensively and struck out nearly 30% of the time. Outfielder Jose De Jesus performed well in a return trip to the ACL before scuffling after a promotion to high-A. Antonis Mejias went from walking a ton and rarely striking out in carving up the ACL to basically doing the exact opposite in 15 A-ball games. Outfielder Hector Osorio continued to hit well in the ACL, just as he did in two DSL seasons, but the Rangers seemed to remain in little hurry to promote him. Pablo Guerrero, a 2023 IFA signee, had strong numbers but lofty K rates in the ACL before posting more manageable K rates but seeing everything else drop as well in A ball. As for the DSL, only the Rockies averaged more runs per game in the DSL than the Rangers, and they had one team to the Rangers’ two. And a lot of those top performers were really young, too. MLB teams averaged having less than 4 players in the DSL in their age 16 or 17 seasons who had a K rate 25% or less and an OPS of at least .700 in 100+ plate appearances. The Rangers had 8, trailing only the Brewers (13) and Red Sox (10), and that isn’t even including Castillo, who got promoted before he hit 100 plate appearances. The others who joined Santana in hitting the mark were Daniel Flames, Sebastian Baquera, Javier Sanchez, Curley Martha, Rashawn Pinder, Jose Marcano and Winder Linares. And that isn’t even including a bunch of guys who had really good second seasons in the DSL.
    Overview: Notice how I didn’t mention any pitchers in the others of note? That wasn’t an oversight. This is by far the most lopsided teen prospect group in baseball. They are among the very best when it comes to teen hitters, but the cabinet is pretty bare pitching wise.
    So, Who Is the Best in the AL?
    Well, the biggest surprise is that the Angels end up average here in my estimation, falling into the 7-9 grouping with the Tigers and the Orioles.
    So onto the top 6. The Red Sox really seem like a slightly better version of the Angels and Orioles systems, with all three buoyed by their depth. I’ve got them sixth.
    After that, it is to some degree pick your poison. Seattle and Tampa Bay have really intriguing top 4s but not much to back them up. The Rangers have great hitting but no real pitching to speak of.
    Since I prefer balance both in hitting/pitching and in top-tier and depth, that leaves two systems battling it out for first in my estimation. If you wanted to put the Jenkins-led Twins system first, I couldn’t really blame you. They have the top overall prospect, some really intriguing pitching and more depth than the top-heavy Mariners and Rays teen groups. Still, though, the amount of swing and miss from their non-Jenkins hitting prospects is enough for me to drop them below their division rivals.
    So, in my estimation, the top group in the American League is the Cleveland Guardians led by Jaison Chourio. We’ll see where they’ll fall overall after the next two parts.
    So, if you made it this far, what do you think? Is the Brewers group of teenagers as good or better than the best in the American League? Did I choose right in picking the Guardians? Let me know.
  3. CheeseheadInQC
    Almost four years ago, Major League Baseball teams embarked on the opening of the annual international signing period. Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, it had been more than 18 months since the opening of the previous signing period, but finally the top Latin American prospects could sign on the dotted line.
    Since that day in 2021, the Brewers have witnessed the rise of a potentially franchise-altering star. The results for the other 29 players who made MLB Pipeline’s top 30 international prospects for that class, however, shows just how big of an outlier Jackson Chourio is and why we should temper expectations for even the highest bonus international prospects.
    1 of 26
    Chourio wasn’t the only player to sign with the Brewers that day. Milwaukee inked 26 players in total.
    Fifteen of those have since been cut. Three were traded (Hendry Mendez, Gregory Barrios and Samuel Escudero, all of whom are still with the teams that traded for them). That leaves eight, including Chourio, still in the Brewers organization. The others are Jadher Areinamo, Patricio Aquino, Dikember Sanchez, Luis Castillo, Daniel Guilarte, Alexander Vallecillo and Edgardo Ordonez.
    All in all, six players who have reached at least high-A, with all four of the hitters posting OPSs of at least .700 last season (with Areinamo, Barrios and Mendez joining Chourio).
    So why am I discussing the Brewers signings in a blog about how the top-ranked DSL signings from that year fared? Well, it will become clear a little bit later.
    Pipeline’s Top 30
    Pipeline’s top 30 international prospects from the 2021 signing class can be broken up into three categories. We’ll save the largest, the teenage hitters for last.
    The Older Cuban Prospects
    Coming in at No. 1 and No. 6 on the list, Cubans Yoelqui Cespedes and Pedro Leon were both the oldest and among the biggest named prospects on the MLB Pipeline top 30.
    Given that they were both at least 22 when they signed and were considered high level prospects, it is no surprise that both advanced to AAA in rapid fashion. What is surprising is that they then proceeded to just kind of stay there.
    Leon, after nearly three full seasons in AAA, finally earned a spot on the Astros last season. He proceeded to tally two singles, one walk and 10 strikeouts in 21 big league at bats.
    At least, however, Leon made the big leagues. Cespedes was released by the White Sox before the start of the 2024 season before struggling in Indy Ball as well.
    The Pitchers
    How often does the same team sign the top-rated hitter and the top-rated pitcher in a signing class? That’s what happened to the White Sox in 2021. Four years later, what do they have to show for it?
    Nothing.
    No MLB games played. No trade value in return. Just a bunch of dashed hopes.
    Norge Vera, another Cuban, clocked in at 20th overall on Pipeline’s list and was the top pitcher. He was a couple years younger than Cespedes and Leon but was still 3-4 years older than most of the other players in the class when he signed.
    A successful debut season had him up to No. 5 on the White Sox prospect list, but injuries and ineffectiveness eventually got him released in 2024. He is currently with the A’s organization.
    The only other pitcher on the list was also the final one, with the Padres’ Victor Lizarraga slotting in at No. 30. Lizarraga has been, statistically at least, one of the biggest bright spots on the list. The only one of the teenage signings other than Chourio to spend the entire 2024 season at double-A or higher, Lizarraga spent the entirety of his age-20 season in the double-A rotation and more than held his own, posting a 4.03 ERA, an even better FIP and more than a strikeout per inning. A lack of fastball velocity keeps him from being considered a top prospect, but relative to most players on the list he has been a massive success.
    The Teenage Hitters
    The rest of the group, 26 in all, was composed of teenage hitters. Of those four spent most or all of the 2024 season still toiling in the complex leagues, with three of the four posting a sub-.600 OPS there.
    Another 10 didn’t crack high-A, with all of them posting sub-.700 OPSs at low-A. That includes the Dodgers’ Wilman Diaz and the Rays’ Carlos Colmenarez, who were ranked second and third overall behind Cespedes. In total, of the 13 teenage hitters ranked above Chourio, only five have cracked high-A, and none of those performed all that well at that level.
    Of the 12 remaining in this group, you can divide them into a few categories:
    Guys Who Spent Most of the Year at Low-A
    Three of the players fall into this group, with Cristian Hernandez of the Cubs and Dodgers catcher Jesus Galiz standing out for hitting well enough to deserve the promotion rather than it feeling like a last-ditch, we have to do something type move.
    High-A, But With Mixed Results
    Here you have five players, all of whom posted sub-.700 OPSs in high-A. Three really struggled, but two are a bit more nuanced. The Rockies’ Dyan Jorge supposedly has a fair amount of physical projection and has done just enough not to dash all hopes that he will reach it. The Twins' Danny De Andrade had a solid 2023 at low-A and was just below .700 when he got hurt and missed the rest of the season.
    The Outlier
    The only teenage position player signee other than Chourio to play most of the 2024 season at double-A is a curious case. After posting an 86 wRC+ in low-A in 2023, Denzer Guzman started 2024 with a 92 wRC+ in 84 high-A plate appearances, largely supported by a .451 BABIP given his 33% K rate and sub-5% walk rate. His team had seen enough, though, and promoted him to AA where he predictably struggled (83 wRC+ and a .601 OPS). Any guess which organization he plays for?
    The High-A Successes
    This group is led by Angel Genoa, the Guardians’ No. 4 prospect by Pipeline, coming in one spot behind Jackson Chourio’s brother Jaison. Genoa totaled an .840 OPS in high-A after starting the season demolishing low-A pitching.
    The other member is the Giants’ No. 14 prospect Diego Velasquez, who tallied a .746 OPS in high-A before improving to .764 during a month-plus spent in AA.
    Jackson Chourio
    He stands alone.
    So What Does This Mean?
    Here are a few things to consider:
    The Brewers signed 18 teenage hitters in 2021, which means that, including Chourio, 22% of the Brewers’ signings posted a .700+ OPS at high-A or above last season. Of the 26 teenage hitters in the top 30 list, only 11.5% can say the same thing. So you are almost twice as likely to get a player who meets that criteria choosing a random one of the Brewers’ signings than one from the Pipeline list. This isn’t to say the Brewers had four of the best signings. There are several really good prospects on other teams that didn’t make the top 30 list. It just means that making the top 30 isn’t close to a guarantee of success, even at the lower levels of the minor leagues. The median performance from the teenage hitters on this list is roughly the same as two other Brewers from that signing class, Daniel Guilarte and Luis Castillo, and both of them have recently had seasons that were considered vaguely disappointing. To put it another way, Yophery Rodriguez has already experienced more success than over half of the teenage hitters on this list despite playing two fewer seasons. The run the Brewers have been on is great, but statistically there are bound to be some guys like Johan Barrios and Kevin Ereu who take a bit longer to hit their stride or, as we can all remember from some of the earlier Brewers international signing classes, ones who just never do. So keep your expectations reasonable and be pleasantly surprised if another Chourio-type emerges (as seemed to be the case last season with Made and Pena). And remember, it is going to take a lot of whiffs for the Brewers’ post-pandemic success rate to even fall back to average.
  4. CheeseheadInQC

    Rule 5 Draft Plea

    By CheeseheadInQC,


    Rule 5 Draft
    What if I were to tell you that the single most dominant pitcher in the 2022 Arizona Fall League was left exposed in this year's Rule 5 draft?
    The guy who blazed through AFL hitters to the tune of 25 strikeouts to one hit allowed (No, that's not a typo. Yes, that is ridiculous).
    The guy who followed it up by making a serious run at making one of the best teams in baseball out of spring training, striking out 11 in 4 1/3 scoreless spring innings before getting injured.
    That would sound like a pretty intriguing Rule 5 pick, right?
    I agree. That's why I'd encourage the Brewers to leave a roster spot open and, if he gets to their pick ...
    Bring back Evan Reifert.
    (Another) One Who Got Away
    The Brewers signing Reifert after he wasn't selected in the abbreviated 2020 draft was an extension of their apparent mission to find pitching talent wherever it might be. After two years at (where else) junior college, Reifert pitched 2 2/3 innings at Division 2 Central Missouri before the pandemic canceled the rest of the season.
    Still, in an undrafted free agent class that included Noah Campbell, Brandon Knarr and TJ Shook, it was Reifert who got an invite to the Brewers 2020 instructional league squad.
    Reifert rewarded that confidence immediately the next spring, needing just nine innings spread out over five appearances at Carolina to convince the Brewers to promote him to Wisconsin.
    The transition to high-A didn't go smoothly. In his first 11 1/3 with the Rattlers, Reifert allowed seven earned runs and even more concerningly walked 17 hitters. Over his remaining 39 2/3 innings, however, things went much better. He walked just 15 more, posted a WHIP of just a hair over 1 and totaled an ERA of 1.36. Outside of a rough homecoming against the Quad Cities River Bandits for the Wilton, Iowa, native, Reifert was dominant.
    However, that offseason, the Brewers were looking for a platoon bat to improve their offense against left-handed pitching. In came the Rays' Mike Brousseau and, like so many other recent Brewers minor league pitchers I was higher on than general consensus, Reifert was traded away. (Reese Olson, Bowden Francis, Reifert, to some degree Antoine Kelly ... I half expect Alexander Cornielle to be traded before I finish typing this sentence.)
    His time with the Rays did not start well, however. He walked seven and gave up eight runs in 3 1/3 innings before being shelved and eventually sent to the complex league to figure things out. And he did, finishing the year strongly enough at high-A to earn him a place in the Arizona Fall League.
    The Case Against Picking Reifert
    Let's start with the very real concern: He missed most of 2023 with a shoulder injury. They can be brutal.
    The results when he came back at the end of the season also were not, well, promising. He walked 15 over 7 2/3 innings spread between rookie ball and high-A. These two factors help explain why the Rays saw fit to leave him exposed to the Rule 5 draft.
    The Case for Picking Reifert
    It seems silly to me that I am advocating for picking a pitcher largely because of about 16 innings spread out over two seasons, but here we are. Did you see those stats? Against quality competition, he was absolutely filthy.
    His strikeout rate has also just always been absurdly high. His 50+ innings with the Timber Rattlers marked the best strikeout rate for a Brewers prospect with at least 50 innings at a level since at least 2006, and it wasn't even particularly close. Aaron Ashby's second place season is closer in K rate to the 17th name on the list than it is to Reifert.
    Those results, when he is at his best, seem to signal a back end of the bullpen arm.
    There is substantial risk in Reifert's profile, both because of the injury and the sometimes erratic results. It's the Rule 5 draft, however. If a player is both safe and has a high ceiling, he is not going to be left exposed. So you either grab a cheap bench bat type, ignore it altogether, or suck it up, accept the risk necessary and gamble on upside.
    For me, especially with where the Brewers are right now, potentially heading into at least a reloading year, I'd gamble on an arm with upside. And I think Evan Reifert is that guy.
  5. CheeseheadInQC
    It is almost impossible to tell how good of a prospect a Dominican Summer League pitcher is by stats alone.
    Stuff is king, and great DSL ERAs don’t always equal great stuff.
    So why am I, who focuses almost entirely on statistics, writing about DSL pitchers? Because while statistics can’t tell you a DSL pitcher’s ultimate upside, two stats in particular can tell us something else interesting – which pitchers are most likely to be brought stateside, survive the pitching nightmare that is the Arizona Complex League, and emerge on the other side in full season ball.
    The MOST Important Stat
    It might surprise you to know that the stat that in recent years best predicts which Brewers’ DSL pitchers reach low-A isn’t a rate stat. It’s not ERA or WHIP, strikeout rate or walk rate. It is a counting stat.
    And, for all but a few exceptions, it is a stat that you can count on your fingers.
    Based upon the years since the pandemic, when Brewers DSL pitchers reaching full season ball stopped being a novelty and started being a regular occurrence, look first at the games started and set aside any relievers with fewer than four starts.
    It makes sense, with pitchers this young and far from the majors, that the Brewers would look to get the guys they are highest on the largest number of starts and innings.
    There have been two categories of exceptions from this rule. The first is composed of older, late spring or early summer signings, who usually don’t throw many DSL innings before being promoted (Jesus Broca, Cristofher Carrasco, Leoni De La Cruz).
    Outside of maybe, if you squint, Jhosep Ospino, I don’t know that any of the remaining DSL crop from last season really fit this category other than the already promoted Broca.
    The second category isn’t so much a category as much as it is a single person: Dikember Sanchez. Last season’s three-level success story started four games in his first season in the DSL but had moved to the bullpen long before earning his stateside shot.
    Perhaps there will be another outlier, or perhaps the Brewers view a higher-inning guy like Lonell Downs as part of the starting group despite only having three starts (the starts were spread more evenly than in past years).
    For the purposes of this article, however, we’re just going to focus on the pitchers with at least four starts.
    The Second Cut-Off
    So, DSL starters are more likely to end up in full-season ball than relievers, but not all do. There is a second stat that can be quite telling: strikeout-to-walk ratio.
    I know what you’re probably thinking: “Wow, so you’re saying that pitchers who the organization believes in who strike out a lot more hitters than they walk are more likely to move up the organizational ladder? Not. Exactly. Shocking.”
    And no, it isn’t shocking. But it is predictive.
    Between 2021 and 2023, 17 Brewers DSL pitchers started at least four games and compiled a strikeout to walk rate of 2.5 or better. Of those, three got hurt and haven’t been heard from since. One, Aneuris Rodriguez, was on track to hit Carolina before being dealt for AAA depth. Of the remaining 13, only Domingo Mejia fell short of hitting A ball, which is pretty remarkable when you consider how little time has passed. Edwin Jimenez, Miguel Segura, Stiven Cruz, Alexander Vallecillo, Manuel Rodriguez, Daniel Corniel, Anthony Flores, Bryan Rivera, Enniel Cortez, Eric Prado, Melvin Hernandez and Jeral Vizcaino have all reached A ball (Vizcaino admittedly as a Cub)
    Falling short doesn’t mean that the player won’t hit A-ball, but for the sake of keeping this article shorter than my DSL hitters one, I’m going to focus only on the six who hit this benchmark, so we are setting aside Ayendy Bravo, Dalvin Bodre, Dariel Jaquez, Christopher Peralta, Carlos Carra, Josue Toledo, Lukas Gonzalez, Aldrin Gonzalez, Gabriel Colmenarez, and Paul Hoff.
    That leaves the following six:
    The Prospect
    Wande Torres
    It wasn’t supposed to take this long.
    Wande Torres was a mainstay in the 2022 Brewers DSL rotation. I even tossed him in my honorable mentions for one of the prospect polls that year, basically saying that he’s 6-3, left-handed and strikes a lot of guys out. Sure the walks were too high, but his ability to miss bats (and give up few hits overall) made him a coin-flip for being brought stateside in 2023.
    Then he got hurt.
    Torres missed the entirety of the 2023 season and the beginning of 2024, but unlike many lower-level pitchers who get hurt and then are never heard from again, Torres came back stronger. His K-rate was over 50%. His K/9? Almost 19. On the rare occasion a ball was put in play, he induced grounders at a nearly 70% clip and was the toughest pitcher on either Brewers DSL staff to pull the ball against. And, almost as importantly, he cut his walks down to a reasonable rate.
    The first episode of the Spencer Michaelis-Joseph Zarr minor league podcast series did a great job touching on Torres, so I will leave it at that, but suffice it to say, I think the Brewers have something here.
    The Ace
    Wenderlyn King
    Perhaps calling King the ace of the DSL staff is an exaggeration, but with Torres still working his way back from injury, you could make a good case. Among those with a starter’s workload (or what passes for one in the DSL), King had the best FIP. He didn’t just meet the K/BB criteria, he blew it away. Among Brewers DSL pitchers, only Enniel Cortez’s absurd nearly double-digit K/BB ratio in 2023 topped King’s 7.17 mark.
    Simply put, King managed to combine a double-digit K/9 with one of the best walk rates a Brewers DSL pitcher has ever posted. While the stateside struggles of another recent smaller DSL star pitcher, Osbriel Mogollon, give a bit of pause, the control issues that would plague Mogollon later on were somewhat present in the DSL as well, something which was definitely not the case for King.
    The Control Artist
    Manuel Moreno
    In each of the last few seasons, there has been one 16- or 17-year-old pitcher who hit this metric more by avoiding walks than racking up strikeouts. In 2022, it was Manuel Rodriguez. The next year, it was Melvin Hernandez. This past season, it was Manuel Moreno, who was the best of the three at avoiding walks.
    Outside of the 4.0 BB%, there wasn’t necessarily anything about Moreno’s stat line that stood out. His K numbers (7.75/9) weren’t that interesting either way, and Moreno was one of only a handful of Brewers DSL pitchers who pretty much pitched exactly to their peripherals, his ERA nestled roughly midway between his FIP and xFIP. Still, there is little reason to think, based upon his stats, that he can’t follow the same path laid out by Rodriguez and Hernandez.
    The Former Two-Way Player
    Argenis Aparicio
    If you were to take Moreno’s season, increase the walk rate slightly but give him superior batted ball luck, you’d probably get roughly the season enjoyed by Argenis Aparicio. A year after splitting his time between the mound and the outfield, Aparicio shelved his bat in 2024, and the move so far has paid off.
    Aparicio led the Brewers’ DSL hurlers in innings pitched while posting a sub-3.00 ERA. Like Moreno, he has thus far been better at avoiding walks than missing bats, but his performance was good enough that we should be seeing him stateside next spring.
    The Trade Acquisition
    Joshua Quezada
    Of all the players here, only one has hit the minimums to be on this list twice. That would be Joshua Quezada, who hit them first for the Yankees in 2023 and then for the Brewers in 2024 after being acquired for Clayton Andrews.
    While that makes him interesting, and shows consistency, it also leaves me with one nagging question about Quezada.
    Why wasn’t he in Arizona?
    He’s an older prospect for the DSL, not making his debut until his age 19 season. This is the kind of guy the Brewers usually have been fast-tracking. I’m hoping that he just had an erratic spring or they had something specific they wanted him to work on, because the stats show a guy who should at least be able to hold his own in the lower full season levels.
    The Outlier
    Enderson Mercado
    For most recent Brewers pitchers, hitting these marks has led to a very successful season. There are more than twice as many who have posted sub-2.00 ERAs than those with ones higher than 4.00. There have been two entire years in which all of the pitchers who hit the mark have been below 4.00.
    So where does that leave Enderson Mercado and his 5.95 ERA? That is the question. Was his absurdly bad BABIP simply bad luck, or a product of mistakes getting hit hard? It is impossible to say from just his stats.
    If you want some optimism, look to one of the other three pitchers on the list who posted a 4.00+ ERA. Much like Daniel Corniel, Mercado had stretches of dominance (note a three start stretch where over 12 innings he struck out 20 and walked 2) and periods of struggles. Corniel made his way through two rookie ball seasons like that, however, and ended up holding his own as a teenager in A ball last season.
    There is a precedent here, and that is among the reasons why Mercado is one of my favorite deep sleepers on the pitching side.
  6. CheeseheadInQC
    The headline for any story about the Brewers 2024 Dominican Summer League season has to include Jesus Made and Luis Pena. Their seasons were that absurd and they are consistently regarded among the top prospects coming out of the DSL this year.
    Dig a little deeper, though, and there is another story, one that will create some tough decisions for Milwaukee heading into the 2025 minor league season. Simply put, the Brewers’ Dominican Summer League squads had offensive depth that, in its productivity and youth, was unprecedented in team history and almost unrivaled across the DSL landscape.
    How much of an outlier were the Brewers? Among players in their age 16 or 17 seasons, there were 127 players across the DSL who, in at least 50 plate appearances, had an OPS of at least .700 and a strikeout rate of 25% or less. That averages out to about 4.25 players per organization.
    The Brewers had 15.
    The only other team to crack double digits was the Red Sox with 11. The rest of the NL Central tallied 16 combined.
    So why did I use the 25% K rate and .700 OPS cutoffs? Simply put, the majority of players who hit those benchmarks for the Brewers end up stateside the following season. In the three post-pandemic years, you’d usually see two players from this group, regardless of age, not brought over. And half of those were catchers, who presumably the Brewers wanted to work a bit more on the catching portion of their game.
    The problem is, they had 9, 7 and 11 players meet the criteria in those seasons. This year they have 16 (the 15 17-year-olds and Kevin Ereu). Plus, they have several players who in a normal year would probably have a 50/50 shot of getting brought over despite not meeting the criteria.
    An aside: How far has the Brewers’ international development system come? The only year, pre-pandemic, that topped 2022’s seven was 2015 with eight. Half of those players were 20 or older.
    So, with that out of the way, who might we see stateside?
    Possibly Carolina-bound
    Jesus Made & Luis Pena
    I’m going to group these two and not spend much time on them because, to be honest, there has been plenty written both on this site and elsewhere about these two that provides deeper analysis than I’d be able conjure up (if you haven’t been reading Spencer Michaelis’ write-ups on the top 20 finishers in the most recent prospects poll, they are exceptional).
    Given how quickly Chourio, Mendez, Lara and Rodriguez have reached Carolina recently, I’d put 80% odds on at least one of them skipping the ACL and 60% odds on both of them. And that might be a tad on the conservative side.
    The Locks
    Jose Anderson
    I debated putting Anderson in the first category, but felt three players skipping the ACL seemed a bit much. That being said, though, with 2022 DSL star Pedro Ibarguen, Ramon Moreno and Antony Gomez all looking like they could benefit by repeating the ACL, there will likely be outfield playing time to be had in Carolina.
    Anderson led the Brewers’ DSL contingent in home runs and ISO, tallied 9 outfield assists and topped a .900 OPS while also having a sustainable BABIP. He wasn’t among the sizable group of Brewers DSLers who walked at least as much as they struck out, but his K rate of 18 and change is below league average and not terribly problematic.
    Juan Ortuno
    Ortuno had an amazing season, better by many measures than Anderson. That being said, though, there are several reasons I would place him fourth in the pecking order here. 
    First, the Brewers didn’t really treat him like a highly regarded prospect until he forced their hand. Second, it is doubtful he sustains a nearly .400 BABIP, especially given that his batted ball profile didn’t seem to obviously justify it. Third, where does he fit defensively? Is he a second or third baseman who played a lot of left field and first base in deference to Made, Pena and Juan Martinez? Or is he a man without a true position (or a future left-fielder only, given that 5-8 doesn’t scream first base)?
    That being said, he joined Made and one surprise name we’ll discuss later on in the 15/10/.100 group (15% K rate or better, 10% walk rate or better and .100 ISO or better). His stats nearly reached the rarified air occupied by Pena and Made.
    Any Other Year They Would Be A Lock
    Jorge Quintana
    Fangraphs has Jorge Quintana’s wRC+ 13th of the 28 Brewers DSL hitters to tally at least 50 plate appearances. It looks worse if you limit it to those with 100 plate appearances. Most of his rate stats range from slightly above average to slightly below average. All-in-all, the hitting profile of a player who would probably be on the bubble to be brought over.
    That, however, ignores three things. First, Quintana is a shortstop. Second, he saved his best for last, tearing it up in August after a rough July. Third, he was the highest profile signing in the Brewers’ 2024 international class.
    Sometimes a strong finish to a DSL season is a harbinger of bigger things stateside the following year (Jackson Chourio). Sometimes it isn’t (Pedro Ibarguen). It was enough, however, to show that he belonged stateside. That is especially true given point three. The Brewers have tended to bring their highest profile international signings over after one season unless they really struggled like Kevin Ereu did last year. That was not Quintana, so he will likely be the starting shortstop for the ACL crew if Made and Pena indeed end up in Carolina.
    Frandy Lafond
    On the OPS chart for Brewers’ DSLers since the pandemic, Frandy Lafond is nestled comfortably between Yophery Rodriguez and Jackson Chourio. That is not to say that he is that kind of prospect, but despite his start to the year being delayed he had a very strong season that will likely be rewarded with a trip stateside in 2025.
    Lafond’s 21.1% K rate is among the highest in the group, although like Quintana he was still a touch below league average. Lafond, whose batted ball profile was pull-centric and fly ball-oriented, had the fifth best ISO among Brewers DSLers, trailing only Anderson, Made, Pena and all-or-nothing catcher Kevin Garcia.
    Likely Exception to the Catchers Wait Rule
    Luis Corobo
    How impactful was Luis Corobo’s arm last season? The catcher flirted with throwing out half of attempted base stealers before settling firmly above 40%. In this regard, at least, the Jeferson Quero comparisons proved prescient. That is also why, despite the team often being slower to promote DSL catchers than other positions, I expect Corobo to be the ACL club’s primary catcher next season.
    The bat, well, some of the peripherals are better than the overall numbers. His walk rate of 9.4% was a tad lower than most, but he kept his K rate below 15% and showed some pop as well, fitting in comfortably with the likes of Lafond and Engel Paulino behind the big two and Anderson in ISO. A .256 BABIP kept the overall numbers from being all that eye-catching, but he definitely wasn’t overwhelmed at the plate.
    Will Money Talk?
    Kevin Ereu
    Kevin Ereu entered the 2023 DSL season with a sizable bonus and the hype that goes along with it. Suffice it to say, things did not go as planned.
    He did, however, make significant strides this past season, though. He shaved about nine percentage points off his strikeout rate and walked more than he struck out. He also, however, displayed little in the way of extra base power. It’s a combination that under normal circumstances in a year with this many contenders would land Ereu squarely on the bubble. As it is, however, I’m guessing he makes his way to the ACL.
    Handelfry Encarnacion
    From the sporadic sources I was able to find, It appears that Encarnacion was the fifth biggest bonus from the 2024 signing class. While that doesn’t make him a lock (a 37.6% K rate likely will be keeping the fourth largest bonus, Joandrew Pena, in the DSL another season), it does affect things. Presuming they still hold true, the reasons why they gave him 
    On the plus side for Encarnacion: 1. He walked more than he struck out, falling a few Ks short of the 15/10/.1 club. 2. When he was healthy, the Brewers treated him like a legit prospect, giving him significant playing time and a spot early in the batting order. The issue, as it is with many of these players, is a numbers game. There could easily be three outfielders repeating from last year, plus Anderson and Lafond possibly in front of him. Then there are a number of guys who played some outfield last season (Ortuno, Roderick Flores) and another outfielder in Engel Paulino who is also on the bubble. Assuming the numbers can be trusted at that level, his BABIP was also depressed by a weird batted ball profile that produced a lot of ground balls and fly balls with few line drives.
    The Bubble
    These next several are in order of how likely I see them being in Arizona next spring.
    Moises Polanco
    The closest of those not in the 15/10/.1 club to inclusion, Polanco missed by .01 in ISO. Still, however, he walked more than he struck out and had 12 extra base hits, even if none left the yard. He also had the ninth most at bats of any Brewers DSLer and spent most of his playing time at second base or shortstop. His profile came very close to the “any other year he’d be a lock” category.
    Roderick Flores
    Flores had great what I call organizational signals in 2023. He had the third most at-bats among Brewers DSLers, trailing only Yophery Rodriguez and Filippo Di Turi. He also split time between shortstop and second base while sharing an infield with Di Turi.
    Unfortunately, he also had a 29.2% K rate and a .643 OPS, so he spent a second season in the DSL. Flores dropped his strikeout rate to 22.2%, matching his high walk rate. He also displayed a bit more extra base pop, including hitting his first home run while tallying a .790 OPS. The questions moving forward are 1. Can he keep the K rate reasonable? and 2. Can he develop enough power to make the extreme pull fly ball profile work to his advantage?
    Juan Martinez
    Juan Martinez, who spent much of the season hitting after Pena and Made in the DSL1 lineup, Has some really interesting peripherals but mediocre results. He only struck out 11.8% of the time, walked nearly as often and like Polanco was a double or two away from reaching the 15/10/.1 club. There is reason to think he is better than his .700 OPS from last season.
    To do so, however, he is probably going to need to reduce the number of pop-ups and raise the number of line drives to get his batting average up. Martinez also showed some base running acumen, tallying better than a 90% stolen base success rate.
    Engel Paulino
    Pena, Made, Anderson and Quintana were 1-4 among Brewers DSLers in extra base hits. Fifth place, however, belonged to Engel Paulino, with eight doubles, six triples and a home run. He also spent most of his time playing center field.
    So why the question mark? Of the 16, Paulino came the closest to missing the list because of strikeouts at 23.5%. It could come down to how many outfielders they take.
    Jonathan Rangel
    In some ways, Jonathan Rangel feels very similar to Juan Martinez. Both had walk rates just a tick behind reasonable strikeout rates. Both had an OPS of about .700, albeit with Martinez garnering a lot more at bats.
    Rangel’s only real advantage, however, comes in his BABIP, which helped make up for the fact that he had the lowest ISO of any full-time hitter on the Brewers’ DSL squads. He also played 2nd/3rd rather than 2nd/SS like Martinez. If it comes down to one last infield spot between the two, it feels like Martinez probably gets it.
    The Other Catcher
    Yoneiker Lugo
    Of the 16 players who met the criteria, no one had a better walk to strikeout ratio than Yoneiker Lugo, in part because only Luis Pena had a lower K rate among Brewers DSLers. Lugo finished his solid first DSL season with a .779 OPS. He only had four extra base hits, but one was a homer.
    So why is he on the bubble? Edgardo Ordonez and Eric Martinez each waited an additional season after first posting good offensive numbers, presumably to improve with the glove behind the plate or the other non-hitting elements of being a catcher.
    Base stealers were an issue for Lugo in 2024, catching fewer than 20%. If the Brewers only bring over one catcher, I’d wager it was Corobo. If they bring two, Lugo could still have some competition (more on that in a bit).
    The Wild Card
    Jhoanjel Saez
    Remember when I said this list included three members of the 15/10/.1 club on this list? Saez is the third. So why is he so far down? He did it in exactly 50 plate appearances.
    It’s not that the Brewers didn’t necessarily see fit to play him much. He got about the same amount of August playing time as Engel Paulino and Juan Martinez. It’s just that he didn’t exit the IL until late July.
    While his solid play is heartening, with as few at-bats as he received, it is difficult to project him over any of the above players. That being said, he is a name to watch if the Brewers end up liking what they either saw in any work after the DSL season ended or see come spring.
    Possibilities Who Didn’t Meet the Criteria
    Considering that 16 of the 28 players who tallied at least 50 plate appearances were on this list, there aren’t many options for this section. That drops even further when you consider two have been released and a third could be transitioning to pitching full time given that he started splitting time last season.
    Still, there are three who you can make a case for.
    Pedro Tovar
    The most productive hitter in this category last season, Tovar’s .776 OPS ranked him just behind Lugo and Polanco. Despite that production, however, there are some issues working against Tovar.
    Given the absurd BABIP he posted and improved ISO he posted, either his quality of contact, his luck or, more likely, both, got better since 2023. Unfortunately his strikeout rate did not. His 27.4% K rate was the reason he wasn’t mentioned in the main part of the list. Also working against him, the guys in front of him, not just from this list but in the ACL.
    Ramon Moreno, Antony Gomez and Tovar all had occasionally promising but flawed rookie seasons in 2023, but the lack of outfield depth in the ACL made it that two spots were open. The Brewers chose Moreno and Gomez. Was Tovar’s DSL season enough to leap frog either of them despite that pair’s struggles in the ACL? I’m skeptical.
    Frederi Montero
    Jorge Quintana had the most plate appearances of any Brewers DSLer last season. Jesus Made was tied for second. Tied with him was none other than Frederi Montero.
    It also wasn’t as if Montero was overwhelmed. He struck out less than 15% of the time and posted a solid walk rate. He even stole 12 bases in 14 attempts. For a 6-2 corner infielder, however, his stats lacked some, well, oomph. He didn’t homer and his slugging percentage barely topped .300. In a league in which BABIPs tend to run high, his was below .300.
    It might have something to do with the 56% ground ball rate he posted. Clearly the Brewers see something they like in Montero to give him that much playing time. Perhaps the key to unlocking it is getting the ball in the air more.
    Freider Rojas
    No hitter on the Brewers’ DSL squads posted a better walk to strikeout rate than Rojas’ 1.53, with the catcher walking in almost 30% of his plate appearances. There just wasn’t that much else to his offensive profile.
    He seemed solid defensively, however, committing fewer errors than Corobo or Lugo. And while his caught stealing percentage dropped from his strong work in 2023, it was still better than some of the non-Corobo options.
    Basically, his case comes down to two questions: First, is there a second catching spot open in the ACL? Second, do the Brewers want Lugo to spend more time behind the plate before coming stateside? If the answer to both is yes, Rojas seems to be the one most likely to get the call.
    So What Is Going To Happen?
    Remember when the Brewers had two ACL teams? That would be nice this year (Curse you, Manfred). As it is, my very early and somewhat uninformed guess would be that they find a way to bring 12-13 over, with Polanco, Flores and Martinez making the cut and the 13th spot going to Rojas if they need another catcher. Still, there is no guarantee that they will have room for 12, even if two of those start the season in A-ball. We will just have to wait and see.
    I will say this, though. I hope the 2025 signing class gives me reason to write an equally long blog post next offseason.
  7. CheeseheadInQC
    A caveat: I am not a scout nor a coach nor anyone with any original insights to offer on any of the prospects who will be selected.
    I do, however, enjoy looking at history, at trends, and trying to see how it could project some of what the Brewers are going to do with their picks.
    So with that out of the way, here we go. This is, as the title suggested, a long, rambling blog covering everything from Brewers' draft tendencies to positions of organizational need to potential selections for their first pick, as well as a few other tidbits. 
    Well That Came Out of Nowhere
    The Brewers' 2023 draft has, thus far, been wildly successful. It was also in several regards highly atypical given recent Brewers drafts.
    Since the bonus pool concept started in 2012, the Brewers, like probably all teams, have employed the tactic of taking a four-year college senior or two in the first 10 rounds in order to save money. The degree to which they did it in 2023 was more extreme, but that wasn't the biggest deviation from the norm.
    From Ben Metzinger to Michael Ratterree, the majority of the money saving signings were hitters. Between 2012 and 2022, the Brewers only took four of the senior (or equivalent) 4-year college pitchers in the top 10 rounds.
    Then last year, led by technically freshman eligible but really a senior Craig Yoho, they matched that total in one year.
    On the other end of the age spectrum on the mound, from 2012-2022 they had signed only 6 or 7 high school pitchers to signing bonuses totaling more than $130,000 after round 10 (I couldn't find how much Gentry Fortuno signed for). Since the pandemic, there had only been one, Caden Vire, and never had there been two in a year. Then last year they signed four high school pitchers from day 3.
    The question is, was last year a special case as far as who was available or does it represent a change in philosophy? To some degree the high school pitching will be dictated by aspects like bonus pool and availability of signable arms on day 3 of the draft. But will we see the Brewers if the Brewers shift their focus on senior signs to focus more on pitchers rather than hitters.
    Where are the Needs?
    Perhaps the best place to examine the Brewers' system's needs is to take a look at where there are not needs:
    2nd Base, Shortstop, 3rd Base
    In alphabetical order, you've got Adamczewski, Adams, Areinamo, Baez, Bitonti, Boeve, Brown, Ereu, Made, Martinez, O'Rae, Pena, Pratt, Quintana, and Wilken. Plus there are hopes for a bounce back from Guilarte, and Alastre and Rodriguez are pushing for backup roles in Carolina. If you can get a top-tier prospect, you find space, but there isn't a lot of playing time available for draft picks next season unless a couple of these guys get dealt at the deadline or during the offseason.
    Pitching at High-A and Above
    This is the most flexible for reasons I will get to in a bit, but for the meantime, if none are on the big league roster, you might be looking at a AAA rotation of Rodriguez, Misiorowski, Henderson, Smith and Blaylock with Wichrowski, Hunt, Kuehner, Herrera, Crow, Cornielle and Aquino at AA and, depending on health, Wagoner, Galindez, Woodward, Birchard, Knoth, Rodriguez, Letson, Corniel and Cortez in high-A. While the bullpens are a bit crammed as well, you could always fit a Craig Yoho type in who you plan to fast-track as a reliever. A few of the five youngsters could get held back in Carolina depending on how they finish out the season, and injuries always hang over any pitching projection, but at the very least this is not a position of need.
    ACL Hitters
    The one trouble with as many players having really good offensive seasons in the DSL as the Brewers have had this year is that it creates a log jam the following season as you condense two teams down to one in Arizona next season, especially since the Manfred Mandates have made the days of stashing 20+ hitters on a rookie ball team a thing of the past.
    Right now, here is how things are shaping up:
    Catcher: Luis Corobo and Freider Rojas seem like good bets to be promoted.
    Infielders: Jesus Made and Luis Pena are the class of this group thus far, but Juan Martinez, as the third member of that infield, has quietly been really good as well. Kevin Ereu has bounced back from his rough first season and looks likely to be brought stateside. Jorge Quintana has thus far done enough, especially given his bonus status. Frederi Montero might be a half step below the others but still would seem comfortably on the promotion side thus far, at least in any other year.
    Outfielders: Jose Anderson is at the top. I'm not convinced the Brewers are as high on Juan Ortuno as his stat line suggests, but that just means he's not a top-25 prospect, not that he won't be in the ACL next season. Pedro Tovar is shining in his second season, in large part because he seems to have discovered more extra base power this year. While Frandy Lafond hasn't hit for much power yet, he is looking like a possible promotion so far as well.
    Add to all of these other possibilities including returners who strike out to much but have otherwise good numbers (Eduardo Charles, Roderick Flores), the small sample size wonder (Kegnnalex Seijas) or a guy whose peripherals suggest he might be this year's version of Tyler Rodriguez (Angel Gonzalez). Then you've got several guys who seem likely to repeat the ACL but it is too early to give up on (Pedro Ibarguen, Antony Gomez, Ramon Moreno, etc.). Even if Made and/or Pena get the Chourio/Lara/Rodriguez treatment and skip the ACL, that is still a lot of players.
    So what does that leave? The following
    Outfield
    While Hedbert Perez will be set to return, that might be the only addition to the lower-level full season outfield rosters other than from the draft. While Ibarguen was great last year and Gomez, Moreno and Gery Holguin have all had their moments, all have a sub-90 wRC+ and a 28%+ K-rate. You also have the fact that unless either A) the Brewers promote Anderson straight to A-ball or B) you consider O'Rae an outfielder, the candidates for the Brewers' third best outfield prospect between AA and low-A next season would include a guy entering his third straight season in AA, a post-hype prospect coming off a major injury, an otherwise extremely talented player who can't seem to coax his K-rate below 30%, a guy less than four months removed from being released by another organization, and a corner outfielder whose career-best OPS is .703 and that came in an extremely hitter-friendly league. I have hopes at least one of those guys will break out, but there is playing time to be had in the outfield on the lower levels.
    Catcher
    Unless either of the minor league free agents who have helped solidify the position in Carolina and Wisconsin signed two-year deals, it appears as if heading into next season the Brewers have Blayberg Diaz, Satchell Norman and Edgardo Ordonez to divide between high-A and low-A. Additions here are needed, even if it is just undrafted free agents with solid defense and good intangibles. Drafting one on Day 2 and one on Day 3 seems likely. 
    Low-A Pitching
    The struggles of the Brewers' ACL pitching staff this season is no secret, and neither is the fact that most of the effective pitchers have already been promoted to Carolina. Of the healthy arms in the ACL, you've got one likely promotion for next year (Melvin Hernandez). Bryan Rivera has been relatively OK, and given the offensive environment in the ACL that might be enough. Anthony Flores' good peripherals might make up for the poor results. After that, it is probably going to take a big push the rest of this year or next spring for Bjorn Johnson and Eric Prado. There will be a couple of holdovers and returners from injury, but on an admittedly really early view, this looks like the shallowest pool of pitchers.
    The question is, does this mean that the Brewers will target more advanced high school or JUCO pitchers, the kind of pitchers who typically start in low-A, or will they simply buck their recent trend and make the Carolina pitching staff a bit older, putting more of their 4-year college arms in Carolina to start with just because that is where the innings are.
    Possible Scenarios with the Brewers' First Pick
    1. Catch a Falling Star
    Sometimes below slot deals push players further down the draft board than expected. It happened to the Brewers with Garrett Mitchell. The Brewers also have enough in their bonus pool to go a bit above slot, especially in what many consider to be a shallower than normal draft. Cam Smith seems to be the likeliest to slide to Milwaukee, and has in a number of mock drafts, but it isn't inconceivable that one of Kurtz, Caminiti, Yesavage or Tibbs could drop further than expected.
    2. Chalk
    There are certain draft picks that just make you go: Well, yah, that makes sense. They might not be flashy, but they value seems right, the fit seems right and, well, they make sense. For me this year, Carson Benge feels like a pick that makes sense. It wouldn't be the most shocking pick or the most exciting, but ... well ... it makes sense.
    3. The WILD Wild Card
    If Brody Brecht is still on the board, I am not going to begrudge the Brewers if they take him or if they pass on him. Each team is going to have to decide for itself whether the idea that they can be the one to harness Brecht's considerable talent is a worthy risk or sheer and utter hubris. I trust the Brewers' player development staff enough to go along with whatever they decide here.
    4. An Underslot ... High Schooler?
    When you think of under-slot signings, you usually think college players, and most of the significantly under-slot deals are. But with several high schoolers projected in the 20-35 range, maybe the Brewers can get a slight savings by splitting the difference between where the Brewers pick and where someone like a Theo Gillen is projected to go.
    Other Draft Thoughts
    Players the Brewers Could Draft ... Again
    Although the most famous draft-eligible past Brewers pick is switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, he isn't the only former Milwaukee selection available. Vanderbilt starter Carter Holton is projected to go in the second or third round and Michigan catcher Will Rogers is also available. One guy I could see the Brewers drafting late, however, is Mississippi outfielder Ethan Lege. After a junior college career in which he not only walked twice as often as he struck out but also was almost hit by pitches as often as he struck out, Lege was drafted by the Brewers two years ago as a third baseman. He opted to attend Mississippi instead. His first season with Mississippi he maintained the quantity of contact, striking out less than 8% of the time, but the quality didn't appear to be there since he posted a sub-.700 OPS. This year, however, the quality showed up as he put up a 1.000+ OPS with 13 home runs and more walks than strikeouts before his season was ended prematurely by injury. This isn't a profile I usually love in one respect, for reasons I will get into in the next section, but for a senior sign at a position of need, taking Lege at some point could make sense.
    One Potential Brewers Pick I am Leery of
    I have for a while been leery of reading too much into the stats of lower-level minor leaguers repeating a level. The amount gained simply by experience rather than skill or talent, especially when they aren't exactly young for the league, is just too great. It has led me to start to distrust junior year breakouts as well, especially in light of how much Chase Davis has struggled for the Cardinals system this year. So that leads me to a guy whose mock draft blurbs read very similarly to Davis' last year: Ryan Waldschmidt from Kentucky. Like I said earlier, I'm no scout and don't claim to have any eye for baseball talent. But I can't shake being a little leery of Waldschmidt. Someone convince me I am wrong.
  8. CheeseheadInQC

    Mission Accomplished... So Far

    By CheeseheadInQC,


    Minor leagues
    Several years ago, the Brewers made a change in organizational philosophy to place greater emphasis on a prospect's hit tool when it came to scouting for the draft or international signing class.
    Statistically at least, the results have paid off.
    Led by the now-injured Juan Baez, the Carolina Mudcats have struck out the fewest times in all of low-A. Not just the Carolina League, but all of low-A.
    That is impressive, but nothing compared to what the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers have done at high-A. The Timber Rattlers have struck out the fewest times of any full-season minor league affiliate this year. Only the Cardinals' Double-A affiliate in Springfield is even close.
    When you look at Wisconsin's roster, it isn't hard to see why. Almost all minor league teams have strikeout rates north of 20%. Among players with at least 50 plate appearances with the Timber Rattlers, only two hitters strike out that often: Jesus Chirinos and Eduarqui Fernandez.
    When the player with the third-highest swinging strike rate is Jadher Areinamo, you know that your team makes a lot of contact. Even two of the highest strikeout rates for the rest of the Timber Rattlers have more to do with the patient approaches employed by Luke Adams and the since-promoted Dylan O'Rae than any swing-and-miss issues.
    Despite the struggles of the double-A offense at Biloxi, the Shuckers have the second fewest strikeouts in the Southern League and are pointed in the right direction, making it possible that three of the Brewers affiliates could soon have the fewest strikeouts in their league.
    Now that it is apparent that the Brewers change in philosophy has been successful, the question becomes will it be SUCCESSFUL. Can the quality of contact match the quantity and provide the Brewers with a stream of major league contributors? That is still to be determined, but at least initially they have succeeded in what they set out to do.
    Maybe Archiving These Rankings Wasn't the Best Idea ...
    I made several references lately in both the minor league forum and some of the Gregory Barrios trade threads of how Barrios and Areinamo have been two of the best hitters from their international signing class this season.
    While it is possible I missed some players (sorting by age, which is how I came up with a list of names to check, leaves out some of the older signings), it appears as if the Brewers' signings accounted for three of the top six performers this season from that signing class. The five of those who are still in the minor leagues also have something in common: they were not among MLB Pipeline's top 30 Latin American signees from the 2021 class. Only Chourio made the list.
    This isn't entirely fair. I believe Moises Ballesteros, Samuel Basallo and Barrios were all $1 million or more signings who might have made the list had it been at the 50 it is now. But still, it goes to show that even among the highest-profile, highest dollar signings, very few players break out quickly.
    The Brewers were so bad for so long in Latin America that it is easy to see what it happening and think that this is normal, that this is what was happening for all those other teams for so long.
    It's not.
    Even if you look through the top 50 list for this year, Jesus Made is the outlier (Pena didn't even make the list). Jorge Quintana's struggles are the norm, and many are having more difficulties than Quintana.
    That so many of the Brewers signings have contributed quickly is a testament to both the Brewers' scouting and development staffs and the players themselves.
    Moving Fast
    Researching this article, it became very apparent that the Brewers have become among the most aggressive in promoting their young minor leaguers. They aren't the most aggressive, however.
    Of course, unlike the Angels, I've never gotten the impression that the Brewers believe the lower levels of the minor leagues are for chumps.
  9. CheeseheadInQC
    With all of the hype that the current young crop of Brewers outfielders got as they moved through the Milwaukee system, it is easy to look at the production that the Brewers have gotten from their outfielders this season and be, well, a bit underwhelmed.
    Joey Wiemer hasn't hit. Garrett Mitchell has been hurt. Sal Frelick is struggling to get his OPS above .700.
    And as for Jackson Chourio, well, I guess at least he's been better than fellow hyped rookies Jackson Holliday and Colt Keith.
    I've even seen some suggestions that the Brewers try to trade for a bat to fortify their outfield.
    The problem with that? There's going to be a long line. A very long line, and from the National League alone, of teams more desperate than the Brewers.
    How can that be? How dire is the National League outfield situation?
    Well, for all of what was said above, the Brewers still have the league's second best outfield.
    The State of the Outfield in the National League
    So just how bad is the National League outfield situation? Here are your current top 6 in Fangraphs WAR, otherwise known as your theoretical All-Star starters and reserves.
    Two converted infielders on the same team, one of whom is probably only playing on the grass because his team went through a couple of offseasons in which they tried to sign every infielder on the planet. A player who missed much of May with an injury. A power hitter whose numbers had been declining as he entered his 30s. A player who even his supporters label as a great fourth outfielder. And finally, a formerly hyped prospect who has only played about half a season after starting the year in the minors because his rookie year did not go well.
    The best outfielder in the National League East is still by general consensus not playing up to his contract.
    All that adds up to only three National League teams averaging 1 fWAR per outfield position thus far. You've got the Padres, who have the best outfield in the National League thanks to the aforementioned converted infielders Fernando Tatis and Jurickson Profar, plus a passable rookie campaign so far from Jackson Merrill.
    The Cubs are the third, averaging exactly one fWAR per position thanks more to a bunch of average performances than any one star (Mike Tauchman has, believe it or not, been their best performer).
    And that leaves the Brewers in second. Did you spot the two Brewers among the all-star candidate list? That's right, as of right now, by fWAR at least, Blake Perkins is the fifth best outfielder in the National League. Yelich, despite his injury, is third. Even Frelick checks in at 25th, so above average for a third outfielder.
    And it isn't just the defense, although the Brewers do top the league in outfield defense by Fangraphs' metrics. They have also had the second best outfield offense, just ahead of the Cubs, Mets and Giants.
    And it isn't just the dregs of the league who are struggling. The Dodgers' outfield production has only been saved by the one-year deal they gave to Teoscar Hernandez (the aforementioned slugger). Their other outfielders I believe have combined for .1 fWar. Not 1 fWAR, .1 fWAR. At least they have Hernandez. The Phillies' group, despite Brandon Marsh's passable start, hasn't even combined for 1 fWAR total. Pre-injury Ronald Acuna had accounted for more than half of the Braves' WAR total thus far, meaning they are in a similar boat to the Phillies going forward.
    Why Is This Happening?
    The obvious answer is that a combination of injuries and position changes have robbed the NL outfield of many of its marquee names. Mookie Betts is now a shortstop, Bryce Harper plays first and Acuna, well, won't be playing the rest of this year.
    Looking deeper, however, if you look at an old list of outfield prospects who should be in their early-to-mid primes, you'll see very little production this year, even in the American League. I went through all of the outfield prospects on the MLB Pipeline 2020 top 100 prospect lists, and the production is rather scant. Heliot Ramos obviously had a great May and JJ Bleday, Riley Greene and Marsh have been somewhere between good and very good, but most of them have been having mediocre to poor seasons. There will be some course correction, obviously. Julio Rodriguez is unlikely to remain on the wrong side of middling and Corbin Carroll is unlikely to stay replacement level. For now, however, the production is not there.
    What Does This Mean?
    For Brewers fans, I think there are two main takeaways here.
    1. Barring injury, I expect other teams to be far more aggressive seeking outfielders at the deadline than Milwaukee will be.
    2. Let's start writing in Blake Perkins on the All-Star ballot. For right now, at least, he deserves it.
  10. CheeseheadInQC
    With Spring Training opening, I thought it was a good chance to take a look at some sleeper prospects who could rise up the prospect ranks this season. I decided to pick four position players and four pitchers and, as with last year, I am dividing this into three tiers.
    The first tier are your regular sleepers, the guys who aren't gracing many top 20 or 30 lists, but have already established themselves as at least names to watch. The second tier are typically less established but have something to recommend them (I had Juan Baez in this tier last year). The third tier are kind of random shots in the dark. They might not even be in the organization's top 100 prospects, but there is something in their statistical profile that I find interesting.
    Hitters
    Tier 1: Ernesto Martinez
    This pick was easily the most difficult one on the list. Every other category, I felt I had multiple options or knew exactly who I wanted. Heck, I even opted against including Jesus Rivero or Ryan Birchard as the tier 1 pitcher because they felt too easy. There were eight, maybe nine players who I'd consider to be in this tier given some of the constraints I set. It didn't help that of the two most obvious candidates, I eliminated one because having all four hitters coming from the DSL felt like overkill (Pedro Ibarguen) and the other because it felt like bandwagon jumping given that I think when he was picked I remarked that it sounded like they took another Devin Hairston (Ethan Murray). Of the remaining ones, none really stood out as saying "I should pick that guy."
    So why Martinez? I think it is because I saw him play in person. He looks like a major leaguer. When the ball comes off his bat, it sounds like it was hit by a major leaguer. There was one mishit that was still traveling hard enough and with enough spin that it made me feel sorry for the second baseman. He also made improvements in his strikeout rate last season, which was among the reasons it took him until his final season before minor league free agency to secure a spot in AA.
    He still pops up too much and I worry the strikeouts will return as the pitching gets better, but if he makes it work ...
    Other players in this tier like Isaac Collins or Carlos Rodriguez are probably more likely to crack a big league roster some day, but none are as fun to dream on as Martinez.
    Tier 2 Luiyin Alastre
    My personal belief is that if you want to find a sleeper position player on a DSL roster, choose someone who plays a lot (preferably at a premium position) and strikes out very little. Two years ago, that was Jadher Areinamo. Last year it was Juan Baez. This year I believe it is Luiyin Alastre.
    It's not a perfect correlation (Alastre played less shortstop than the other two), but in many other respects, Alastre's DSL campaign last season was better than theirs. He walked more (13.5%). He struck out even less (11%). His ISO (.088) was better than Areinamo and almost the same as Baez in the DSL. He might have gotten overshadowed by Rodriguez, Nadal, Ibarguen and Di Turi, but Alastre has earned the right to be considered a player to watch in his own right.
    Tier 3 Roderick Flores & Tyler Rodriguez
    Not getting to see most of the games, I base a lot of trying to pick break-out candidates on two things: statistics and organizational signals.
    So here, in tier 3, we have two players. The first has great organizational signals, but concerning statistics. The second has a very interesting stat line, but pretty awful organizational signals.
    If you were to guess who had the most plate appearances among Brewers DSL prospects last year, you might be able to correctly pick Yophery Rodriguez as No. 1 and Filippo Di Turi as No. 2. In third place, however, isn't Pedro Ibarguen or Demetrio Nadal or the aforementioned Luiyin Alastre. It was middle infielder Roderick Flores.
    That, coupled with the fact he played most of his games at shortstop or second base, indicates the Brewers see something in Flores. So why isn't he up with Alastre in Tier 2? 
    The answer? He struck out nearly 30% of the time.
    That number obviously needs to come down, but there is at least one other reason for optimism with Flores. He was the youngest hitter on either Brewers DSL roster.
    On the other hand, as far as DSL stat lines go, I like to see hitters who take walks, have a reasonable strikeout rate and display at least a modicum of pop (.1 ISO). Tyler Rodriguez did all three. He also needed a late season surge in playing time to get close to 100 plate appearances and played pretty much everywhere except shortstop, including a fair amount of first base. Considering he is listed at 5-10, 165, that probably speaks more to either defensive limitations or his place in the prospect pecking order than a future defensive home.
    It wasn't all rosy with Rodriguez's bat. If Fangraph's DSL batted ball data is to be believed, he was really pull-happy and popped out a lot. Still, however, the ability to put a couple of balls into the bleachers while posting solid strikeout and walk totals makes his stat line a lot more interesting than most DSL prospects who get his level of playing time.
    Pitchers
    Tier 1: Harold Chirino
    The Brewers are not lacking for potential breakout pitchers. Even excluding the low-hanging fruit pair I mentioned earlier and Alexander Cornielle, who I've written about before, there were plenty of potential choices for this tier.
    So why Chirino over Quinton Low, Cameron Wagoner or a host of other relievers? If he gets an opportunity (the Brewers aren't lacking for relief options), I believe he has a chance to impact the big league club this year.
    After an up-and-down 2022 season, the Brewers brought Chirino back on a minor league deal and he brought some additional prospect intrigue thanks to reports of a velocity bump. And he did his best to show that those plaudits were deserved, absolutely dominating at AA early in the season. He looked like an early promotion to AAA was likely.
    And then he got hurt.
    Chirino went on the injured list May 24 and never came back off of it.
    The Brewers brought him back on another minor league free agent contract, though, with a big league camp invite signaling this is more than just allowing him to complete his rehab. The Brewers are no strangers to relievers taking a meandering path to the big leagues, and Chirino appears as if he could be the latest example.
    Tier 2: Russell Smith & Daniel Corniel
    At first these two might not seem to have much in common. Corniel is a 6-foot righty, Smith is a 6-7 lefty. Smith was a second round pick, Corniel was a late addition to the Brewers 2022 international signing class. Corniel started last season while Smith pitched out of the bullpen.
    They do have a few things in common, however. They posted somewhat unsightly ERAs, they both have shown the ability to strike hitters out at a high clip, and they both saved their best work for the end of the season.
    In a league in which hitting ruled, Corniel's ACL season was pretty erratic. In 11 total outings, he gave up four or more earned runs four times (all in four or fewer innings). He also gave up one or no earned runs six times, including a pair of five-inning, eight strikeout gems. The latter half of his season was particularly impressive as he posted a sub-3.00 ERA with 13.3 K/9 over his last five outings.
    I wouldn't be surprised if Corniel ended up back in the ACL this year, but I also wouldn't be shocked if he ended up solidifying a spot in the Carolina starting rotation.
    For Smith, the strikeouts had been there all season. In fact, his 10.4 K/9 in August and September was actually down from his earlier work in Biloxi. So what changed to the point where he had a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP in August and September combined after posting unsightly 7.00+ ERAs in both June and July? Two things: First, he cut his walk rate down to a decidedly manageable 2.5/9. Second, he did a much better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark.
    It is often said that tall pitchers sometimes need more development time. Smith's pre-draft scouting report indicated he might be an exception. That obviously has not been the case, but that doesn't mean he can't take the more common path and carve out a role in the Brewers' bullpen in the coming years.
    Tier 3: Ranwell Smith
    If player development is above all about improvement, then Smith quietly had a very successful 2023. A year after scuffling as one of the youngest Brewers DSL pitchers to a 6.20 ERA and walking more than he struck out, Smith put together a much better encore. His K/9 jumped to nearly 10. His walks were still too high at 5.3/9, but even that marked a decided improvement.
    Smith is caught in an uncomfortable spot. The greater success of a lot of his teammates last season might make it difficult to squeeze onto the ACL roster, and the track record of guys who spend three years in the DSL isn't exactly great.
    His second season, however, gives hope, however, that a greater breakthrough might be within sight. I wouldn't have held that much optimism after his 2022.
    Your Turn
    I've made my picks. Now it is your turn. Which Brewers prospects who aren't typically listed in the top 30 now do you think will move up the rankings this season?
  11. CheeseheadInQC
    When you hear the word logjam in regards to the Milwaukee Brewers these days you typically think of one thing: the outfield in the majors and at triple-A. And for good reason. You've got a punch of recently graduated top prospects, a former MVP, a couple of useful reserves, and, oh yah, one of the top prospects in baseball.
    The logjam I'm going to talk about, though, isn't at the big league level or even close to it. And it (likely) doesn't involve any of the system's "name" prospects. How it works out, however, could go a long way to determining the quality of depth in a key area of the Brewers' system in the years to come.
    That area? The upcoming season's ACL Brewers pitching staff.
    While the only guy making top 30 lists from the group might be Bishop Letson (assuming Josh Knoth starts the season in Carolina), it feels like there are more guys who could make the leap to that level than there have been in a while.
    The High School Draft Picks
    The Brewers traditionally haven't been a team that has drafted and signed a bunch of high school pitchers. Heading into the 2023 draft, they hadn't signed more than four high school pitchers from any draft class since 2017 when they signed six. Before that, you have to go all the way back to the Jake Odorizzi draft in 2008 when they signed seven.
    In fact, since 2020, they had signed only one or two, depending on how you classified Quinton Low upon being drafted.
    That's why it was a minor shock when the Brewers drafted seven high school pitchers in the 2023 draft. It was a major shock when they managed to sign five of them.
    Assuming that Justin Chambers is recovered enough from Tommy John surgery, the final four of those five picked will likely be on the ACL staff this coming season: Bishop Letson, Bjorn Johnson, Hayden Robinson and Chambers.
    All four got fifth- or sixth-round money, with Chambers leading the way at $547,500. They were the sixth through ninth highest signing bonuses of the draft for the Brewers.
    Get more information on the four here.
    All, assuming they can stay healthy (or in the case of Chambers get healthy), should offer some of the more interesting pitching lines to watch in the ACL this season. Although with pitchers this young, that is too often easier said that done, as the careers of the one high schooler the Brewers drafted and signed solely as a pitcher recently (Caden Vire) and the first two high school pitchers they chose in that 2017 draft (Caden Lemons and Brendan Murphy) show.
    The Holdovers
    Between all of the college pitchers the Brewers drafted or signed last season and the players repeating at Carolina, there might not be a ton of spots for the group that was with the ACL squad all season. As of right now, I'm projecting Osbriel Mogollon, Anfernny Reyes and Brailin Rodriguez as the ones getting promoted from that group. That leaves a couple of interesting prospects behind.
    Daniel Corniel: After having some of the best peripherals on either of the DSL squads in 2022, Corniel followed that up by having a highly erratic but occasionally dominant season in Arizona. I can't claim to be an expert on his stuff, but statistically at least he still seems like an interesting prospect. Manuel Rodriguez: Labeled by Fangraphs as someone who could become an interesting prospect if he gained a few ticks on his velocity, the youngest active pitcher on the Brewers ACL squad was the opposite of a lot of the other ACL youngsters last season: he struggled to miss bats but experienced some success because he was one of the team's best at limiting walks. The Field: Jesus Rivero wasn't all that interesting statistically, until suddenly he was. There very well might be a random likely ACL repeater with better stuff than results who manages to start to piece things together to become interesting. I don't know that I'd bet on any of them individually, but it wouldn't be at all shocking if one of the guys from this tier, be it Henrison Mota, Darling Solano or someone else, at least breaks into the "mildly intriguing" level next season. The Likely Promotions
    Any discussion of pitchers from last year's DSL squads has to start with three players: the Brewers' highest bonus pitching signings from the 2022 and 2023 international class and the guy who led the entire DSL in strikeout to walk rate: Anthony Flores, Eric Prado and Enniel Cortez. Barring injury, it would be shocking not to see all three suiting up stateside this summer.
    Prado's season might not have been quite as promising as his ERA indicated, but it was still solid, and combined with being the rare Brewers pitcher with at least some signing day hype, earns him a spot toward the top of this list.
    Flores, as I alluded to in a previous blog, had an Aaron Ashby-esque season (at least the minor league version), combining high strikeout totals with a lot of groundballs.
    Cortez was among the best pitchers in the DSL, ranking third among qualifiers in ERA and second in FIP along with his eye-popping .99 BB/9.
    Even after those three, there is a significant depth of promotion possibilities. Melvin Hernandez is taking a page from the Manuel Rodriguez playbook as one of the youngest pitchers on last year's DSL team didn't miss as many bats as a lot of his teammates but succeeded by limiting walks. Aneuris Rodriguez is old for a Brewers DSL prospect, which can sometimes be a death knell, but had the third best FIP on the squads last year. You can also make good cases for holdovers Bryan Rivera and Ranwell Smith as well as DSL rookie Esmir Suarez coming stateside.
    The Comeback Kids
    It seems fitting to be writing this section on a day when the Brewers picked up a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, but there are several intriguing names coming off injuries who could start in the ACL.
    Since I already mentioned Chambers, we'll start with the Brewers' other 2023 draft pick on the comeback trail from Tommy John. It seems likely that fourth rounder Jason Woodward will pitch this season, and that pitching will likely at least start in the ACL. While it was a below slot pick, the Brewers still had enough options at that price point in the fourth round to think that they see something they like in the former Florida Gulf Coast ace.
    Aldrin Gonzalez briefly got everyone's hopes up with an ACL assignment before being immediately thereafter put on the season-ending injury list. I still have no clue why the Brewers would promote him just to put him on the injured list, but most of the explanations I can come up with would indicate the organization is high on Gonzalez, who apparently was already throwing 95 at the time of his signing as a 16-year-old.
    Speaking of players mysteriously promoted to the ACL injured list, Wande Torres is intriguing if only because he is 6-3, left-handed and missed a fair number of bats in his erratic 2022 DSL season.
    Kevin Briceno was a nice story during the 2022 season, earning a rare in-season promotion from the DSL and holding his own in the ACL as well. He then missed pretty much all of his follow-up season with injury.
    It is tough to really project much from this group given the unfortunate fact that, at the lower levels, many a pitcher gets hurt and then is never heard from again. In each of these cases, though, there is at least some reason for optimism.
    A New Strategy?
    Given the way that the offseason has gone so far, it seems like the Brewers are taking an approach to trade from their non-top-tier hitting prospects while collecting as many promising pitchers as possible, turning their player development system loose and seeing what happens. It would seem the upcoming ACL group would be a perfect test case for that philosophy. If the Brewers can get even 3-4 of the names on this list to break out significantly it would go a long way to establishing a deeper pipeline of pitching talent for future years.
  12. CheeseheadInQC
    There are plenty of stories from the Brewers' 2023 minor league season of players stepping up and loudly announcing themselves as prospects to watch.
    This is not one of those stories.
    This is a story of entire seasons lost to injury, of struggles at a new level. It is a story where even most of the successes come with an asterisk. It is also one, though, that comes with a reminder that just because results might not be particularly hopeful doesn't necessarily mean they are hopeless.
    This is the story of the 14 pitchers who mostly comprised the shifting 2022 Brewers DSL starting rotations.
    The One Who Got Released
    By most normal standards, Jeral Vizcaino's 2022 season for the Brewers DSL squad was a rousing success. He had a 1.46 ERA and a WHIP just above 1 while striking out just over a hitter an inning.
    When you are in your age 20 season in the DSL, however, you have to convince the team that you deserve a spot stateside. For whatever reason (with the consolidation from two to one ACL squad likely at least partially to blame), the Brewers released Vizcaino.
    He hooked on with the Cubs' DSL squad, and had a similarly good 2023. Now he is hoping his age 22 season is the one in which he finally gets a complex league spot.
    The Lost Seasons
    The Returning Ace, The Opening Day Starter And The Big Lefty
    Kevin Briceno's strong work out of the bullpen for the 2021 DSL squad seemed to have him in line for a similar role in Arizona in 2022. The Brewers had other ideas, however, and installed the 6-1 righty as one of their opening day starters in the DSL.
    He rewarded them with six starts with a sub-1.50 ERA and better than 6:1 strikeout to walk rate before getting moved to Arizona. His metrics slipped stateside, but he was good enough at keeping runs off the board where he seemed to have an outside shot at pitching in Carolina to open the 2023 season.
    He didn't, and he didn't in Arizona, either. indeed, Briceno missed the whole season because of injury.
    The same fate also befell the Brewers' other opening day DSL starter in 2022, Daurys Mora.
    By most measures other than his 5.50 ERA, Mora had a pretty average 2022. He didn't strike out a ton but didn't walk a ton either. His xFIP was seventh out of the 14 pitchers who started at least 5 DSL games for the Brewers.
    He didn't get a chance to build on that in 2023, however, missing the entire season.
    Wande Torres was intriguing in 2022 mainly for three reasons:
    1. At 6-3 he was tied for the tallest among the DSL starters.
    2. He pitches left-handed
    3. He struck out more than 10 batters per 9 in that, his age 17 season.
    When his name first appeared on the ACL roster as its season was about to begin in 2023, I thought maybe the Brewers had seen signs that Torres, who had the second highest bonus among pitchers in the 2022 international signing class, had improved upon the control problems that plagued him during his debut season. Instead, it was a paper transaction, as Torres was soon moved to the IL, not pitching an inning in 2023.
    Dencer Geraldo, despite pitching in 2023, also probably belongs in the lost season category. After posting a 6+ ERA in his second DSL season in 2022, Geraldo's 2023 season was over after just 2 2/3 innings.
    Left Behind in the DR
    This is where the asterisks come in. Each of these four pitchers improved in almost every metric this season, but how much was simply due to having that year of experience under their belt? The players in the DSL are so young and there is so much year-to-year turnover, that even having that one extra year of experience can give the players a big advantage.
    That being said, improving is definitely better than the alternative.
    And none of these improved more than Anthony Flores. After barely breaking a 6.00 ERA in his first season, the highest bonus pitcher in the Brewers' 2022 signing class, shaved more than two and a half runs off his ERA. He was one of only seven qualifying pitchers in the DSL to post a FIP under 3.00, a group that included fellow Brewers prospect Enniel Cortez. His K/BB rate went from 1.36 to 3.56.
    Aneuris Rodriguez, like Torres, finished 2022 with a solid sub-4.00 ERA but shakier peripherals. Those improved in 2023, with Rodriguez shaving 1.5 off his BB/9 while adding more than 1.5 to his K/9. While the Brewers' 2023 ACL pitching staff is going to be pretty stocked, those totals should put Rodriguez in line to join Flores stateside in 2023.
    The improvements weren't quite as dramatic for Bryan Rivera, The Brewers' DSL innings pitched leader did, however, post a 3.57 ERA despite being the Brewers DSL starter most often hurt by the home run ball. The two-point drop in ERA was perhaps the most notable statistical change for Rivera, who improved his strikeout and walk rates, but less than the numbers seen by Flores, Rivera and last holdover.
    That would be Ranwell Smith, the youngest and arguably least successful of the 2022 Brewers DSL starters. Smith, who walked more hitters than he struck out in 2022, raised his strikeout rate almost three K/9 and improved his BB/9 by almost two. He still walked a few too many hitters, but the fact that he still managed to be among the least successful said a lot more about the strength of the Brewers' 2023 DSL staffs, which posted above average results despite being among the league's youngest.
    Journeying Stateside
    Once Vizcaino was released, it appeared as if there were three locks to be brought stateside. Anfernny Reyes and Osbriel Mogollon served as the top performers after Briceno's promotion. Then you had Daniel Corniel, whose mediocre to poor ERA masked some of the staff's better peripherals.
    To that the Brewers added two more, Manuel Rodriguez, who was only a couple of days older than Ranwell Smith, and surprisingly, Darling Solano.
    Who had the best season among this group is tough to say, and you could make a case for any of four of them having the most promising showing depending upon which metric you use.
    Mogollon had the best ERA at 3.72. That ERA, however, masked a walk rate that swelled enough to send his K/BB rate below 2.
    Corniel struck out nearly 12 batters per 9 innings but also had trouble with walks. He had a 5.70 ERA, in large part thanks to two blowup starts midseason, but led the team in starts. He mixed dominant starts with bouts of ineffectiveness.
    Rodriguez was one of the only Brewers ACL pitchers who wasn't victimized by walks, with his 5.7% walk rate leading to a solid 1.23 WHIP and him being the only Brewers' ACL starter to average more than four innings per outing. He also, however, had one of the team's lowest strikeout rates and was victimized by the long ball ... a lot. His 1.74 HR/9 dwarfed his next closest teammate. His ERA was passable for the league, but his FIP of 6.61 was more concerning.
    Reyes had the highest strikeout rate on the team among pitchers with at least 20 innings and coupled it with a walk rate that, while not good, was at least better than most of his non-Rodriguez teammates. However, he did it out of the bullpen. Although an early move to the bullpen isn't as big of an issue as it used to be (the Brewers are much more open to moving guys they envision as relievers to the bullpen early than they once were), I don't know that it would count as a positive development, either.
    As for Solano, the righty was a surprise ACL addition after being one of the more erratic members of the 2022 DSL rotation. He had one big plus, though, striking out more than 13 batters per 9 innings. That, however, eluded him in the ACL, as that number dropped below 7. His walk rate also jumped higher, moving above 10.
    Reasons for Optimism
    Despite the struggles, there are a few reasons for optimism about this group:
    1. Repeating a Level Isn't As Big of a Stigma for a Pitcher
    In general, I am skeptical of stats for hitters repeating a level, especially for the DSL. It's why I kind of tempered my enthusiasm for Yeison Perez last year and Demetrio Nadal this year.
    The routes to pitchers developing, however, can be a bit more meandering, especially for ones that young. There is a reason why most of the highest money international signings, not just for the Brewers but in general, are hitters. It just seems like the advantage of an extra year of experience, in the absence of other improvements, is lesser for pitchers than hitters.
    2. The Galindez effect
    Yorman Galindez finished the season strong in Carolina. The thing is, you wouldn't have predicted that at all if you just looked at his ACL stats. He might not be the only one.
    The average ERA for the ACL? 5.78
    There is a chance that the absurd hitting environment in the ACL managed to mask signs of progress among the pitchers there.
    3. A Bizarre Transaction
    There is hard to find a silver lining in injuries, especially at the DSL and ACL levels. We've seen too many players lately who have ended up never throwing another pitch in the organization again.
    That being said, remember when it appeared as if Aldrin Gonzalez, who had been getting some post-signing hype, was going to skip the DSL only to be put on the ACL injured list? Gonzalez wasn't the only prospect promoted only to be shut down for the season before throwing an inning.
    Wande Torres was, too.
    I will admit, I have no clue what this means, but most of the explanations I have come up with (wanting him to rehab at the team's Arizona facility, having been injured in Arizona getting ready to join the ACL club) point to the organization seeing something in the young lefty.
    4. An Eye-Opening Combination
    One of the intriguing statistics as Aaron Ashby was climbing the prospect ranks was that he combined the strikeout rate of a power pitcher with the groundball rate of a pitch-to-contact groundball specialist.
    Flores put together that same combination in the DSL last season. He was among the league leaders in both ground ball rate and strikeout rate. It's more than enough for me to be genuinely intrigued to see if it will continue stateside next year.
  13. CheeseheadInQC
    I thought I'd use a couple of items I wrote before the season to look at some of the things that did (or did not) go right in 2023.
    Statistics to Watch
    Ground Ball Rate - Jadher Areinamo
    When we left Jadher Areinamo at the end of the 2022 season, he was coming off a breakout campaign, finishing his age-18 season at low-A. It came with a caveat: once he got promoted to full season ball, his ground ball rate spiked and the doubles power that he had shown in Arizona abandoned him.
    In 2023, Areinamo's batted ball stats, included ground ball rate, bounced back to the exceedingly balanced collection he displayed during his stellar complex league season. And the results, eventually, caught up. After a horrid April and mediocre May and June, Areinamo turned it on. This was in large part thanks to his extra-base power returning. He hit 17 of his 26 doubles and three of his four home runs in July and August. Here's to another year of Areinamo spraying line drives all over the field.
    Walk Rate - Jeferson Quero
    This was one of the few aspects of Quero's game not going well early in the season. Then suddenly he flipped a switch and the walks started to come. He ended up hitting doubles digits in walk rate, although barely. That's a definite plus for a guy whose patience at the plate seemed to be the biggest knock on him in scouts' minds coming into the 2023 season.
    The one hiccup: initially when his walks went up, his power went down. And then just when it seemed like he was figuring out how to draw more walks while also getting to his power, he got hurt and didn't hit quite as well when he came back. That is going to be the key for him going forward, finding an approach that allows him to get on base without sacrificing the power potential he has displayed.
    ISO - Gregory Barrios
    Well, it improved. In a year not a ton went right for Barrios, his ISO moved from .051 to .071. That's probably not as much as Barrios or the Brewers would have liked, but it was at least an improvement. He totaled 24 extra base hits, including his first home run, after having just 13 in his first two seasons combined.
    More on Barrios' weird year later.
    Sleepers
    Tier 1
    Gregory Barrios
    This was not the season Barrios hoped for.
    First the bad. Of all of the players at Carolina who got at least 100 plate appearances, only Blayberg Diaz had worse results at the plate. Despite trailing only Areinamo among Carolina regulars in strikeout rate, Barrios hit only .232. For a guy who doesn't collect a ton of walks or hit for much power, that is not a good starting point.
    There were good reasons to think Barrios might be headed for a breakout heading into the season. It seemed the Brewers did, too, as he was hitting toward the top of the lineup a lot early in the year. And the Brewers never really lost faith in him. While Daniel Guilarte's injury problems undoubtedly contributed to this stat, Barrios had the most plate appearances of any Mudcat. No matter how much the bat was struggling, he was kept in the lineup.
    Looking at Barrios' batted ball metrics, there is also a bit of weirdness. He went from a guy who went the other way much of the time his first two seasons to a dead pull hitter this year. But nothing else really changed. His already inflated infield fly rate spiked a bit, but I don't know if that was even really significant. His flyball rate was less than a percentage point different. His strikeout rate was pretty much smack in the middle of his numbers from his first two seasons, and while his walk rate fell, it wasn't more than you'd expect going from the Complex League to A ball. It's almost enough to make me wonder if Fangraphs' tracking for this season had him hitting from the wrong side of the plate. How can a guy almost cut the rate at which he goes the other way in half and see nothing else change?
    Patricio Aquino
    One of two on this list that I am considering wins, Aquino was third in the Carolina League in ERA among those with at least 80 innings. And while the peripherals weren't quite as good, they were still solid at worst.
    He had above average ground ball and swinging strike rates, although the strikeout rate was a touch below average for league starters. Hopefully he can build on this season next year at Wisconsin.
    Justin Yeager
    Lost season due to injury. After a rough first outing, his Arizona Fall League stint has been good enough to remain promising but not so dominant as work himself into a likely 40-man spot.
    Tier 2
    Juan Baez
    Turns out there was a reason the Brewers gave a low-bonus signing with a bit below average offensive stats a ton of playing time at shortstop in the DSL in 2022. Baez was one of the bigger offensive breakthroughs in system in 2022, putting up surprisingly good complex league power numbers for a guy whose ground ball rates approached Mendez/Guilarte territory. The question going forward is going to be patience. Other prospects who saw lower walk rates when they moved into full season ball, like Quero, Chourio and Areinamo, at least had passable walk rates in DSL or complex league. The fact that Baez didn't walk even in the leagues where, let's face it, the pitchers are at their wildest, is a bit of a concern.
    Brian Fitzpatrick
    Fitzpatrick will try to build off his solid but not spectacular showing in Carolina down under this winter, but for a guy who struggled to stay healthy during his college career, missing a substantial chunk of the season might have been a bigger red flag than his struggles in Arizona while rehabbing. Since I said he stood in for much of the eclectic group of pitchers chosen round five and later last year, most of them except Maldonado had at least solid seasons, although none truly broke out.
    Jeison Pena
    I was debating between two relievers I was really high on for this spot. In retrospect, I'd look a lot smarter if I'd gone with Shane Smith. I'd figured that once Pena got settled in more in full season ball, that the walk rate would start to decline. It didn't. It got worse. And the strikeout rate which made him so intriguing in 2022 dropped. How disappointing was his season? He wasn't even Carolina's most statistically promising 20-year-old with a 6.00+ ERA.
    Tier 3
    The Hitters
    It's not really worth giving each a section. Zack Raabe was cut before the season. Jhonnys Cabrera was cut after the season. Blayberg Diaz as of now looks like the backup at Wisconsin next season if only because the Brewers cut so many catchers there is literally no one else. In my defense, of the hitters I would have put in this tier, at least stateside, only Isaac Collins really established himself. The second best season probably belonged to Alex Hall, and it got him cut.
    Brailin Rodriguez
    After being one of the youngest pitchers to make his full-season debut with the Brewers in 2021 and then subsequently missing 2022 with injury, Rodriguez looked poised to start 2023 in Carolina. But it didn't happen. It never happened, and perhaps we glimpsed why as he had a disastrous first month in Arizona. The thing is, after that month, he was among the better pitchers on the Brewers' ACL squad. I didn't even notice until looking back for this blog post because his June was so disastrous that it doomed his stats, but he had a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk rate the last two months of the season. Thanks to the sheer number of college pitchers picked/signed last year, he isn't a lock to break camp with Carolina, but it wouldn't shock me if he ended up turning into a solid bullpen piece for them next year either.
    Looking Forward
    It's tough to say that you can really learn much from the successes on this list as it relates to picking breakthroughs for next season. Aquino was more impressive than any of the guys who pitched a significant amount of time in the ACL last year outside of the obvious one, and he was repeating the level. And as far as Baez goes, the closest comparison playing time wise was probably Roderick Flores, who was third behind Yophery Rodriguez and Filippo Di Turi in plate appearances among Brewers DSL players and got a passable amount of time at shortstop. Flores also, however, had a 29% strikeout rate that seems to make it unlikely he'll put together a Baez-like stateside breakout, at least in 2024.
    Lessons from the guys who didn't do as well? Well if there are, chances are I didn't learn them. I haven't decided on all my sleepers for next year yet, but there is an above-average chance there will be a fringy rookie-leaguer coming off an injury on there. Because sometimes, I just can't help myself.
  14. CheeseheadInQC
    It's been a while. I had two longer blogs lost halfway through to computer crashes. One was moot by the time I had time to sit down and write long-form again. I still plan to write the other at some point in the offseason, but that 1,000+ word meandering treatise on how the 2022 DSL starters fared in 2023 will wait for another day. I decided to churn out one I could get done in one sitting now, though, to avoid computer issues.
    So here are two more stats that I (and perhaps only I) find interesting.
    No Pulling Your Leg
    Hitters in baseball tend to like to pull the ball. Turning on pitches produces a sizeable percentage of the home runs.
    No Brewers major league starting pitcher has more balls hit to the opposite field than pulled. Indeed, their with one exception, all of their pull rates fell in a narrow band between 41 and 46 percent (Julio Teheran, with 36.2%, was the outlier, although more because of a really high percentage of balls hit to center than an abnormal amount going the other way). Even among relievers, only Trevor Megill had more balls hit the opposite way off him than pulled.
    The spread among minor leaguers was wider, with 23 of the 25 pitchers with double digit starts for the Brewers in the minors this season ending up with pull rates between 40 and 51%.
    The two outliers each had more balls taken the other way than pulled.
    You can probably guess one. It is going to be tough for a lot of A-ballers to turn on pitches against someone who throws as fast as (and has as electric of stuff as) Jacob Misiorowski.
    Misiorowski didn't have the lowest pull rate in the system, though. That honor went to Alexander Cornielle at 34.7%, adding another layer of statistical weirdness for the guy who I think it is fair to say had the best disappointing season in the Brewers' system.
    On one hand, Cornielle's season felt underwhelming coming off his 2022 breakthrough. He posted a 4.55 ERA and never pitched a AA inning after looking like he had an outside shot to start there with his strong 2022 finish.
    On the other hand, among those 25 Brewers minor league starters, Cornielle was tied for third in FIP, only behind the aforementioned Misiorowski and a prospect who spent the whole season pitching arguably a level below where he should have been (Logan Henderson).
    One thing that Cornielle did well was limit home runs, which might be partly because of the difficulty batters had pulling the ball off him. I don't have the data or processing capacity to say this with certainty. Anecdotally, however, 10 of the 12 minor league starting pitchers across all teams and levels who had pull rates below 35% also had home run rates below 10%, (Side note: one of the two exceptions was the weird case of Kyle Barraclough, who has logged big league bullpen innings most years since 2015. After not starting more than a single game in any year since he was in rookie ball, the Red Sox threw him into their triple-A starting rotation with surprisingly good results and unsurprisingly weak peripherals).
    I have no idea if this will be repeatable for Cornielle or how much, if at all, it would help him if he reaches the big leagues one day, but it is an interesting stat to watch.
    Achieving Balance
    I've remarked a number of times at the remarkable balance of Jadher Areinamo's batted ball metrics.
    So, I decided to test out just how rare it is for hitters to have balanced profiles. I applied the following filters: more than 300 plate appearances; 40% or lower pull and opposite field rates, 40% or lower fly ball and ground ball rates, less than 10% swinging strike rate.
    What remained were six players, four of whom spent at least a chunk of time in triple-A, including former big leaguer Jake Lamb and Cardinals prospect Masyn Winn.
    Unsurprisingly, Areinamo was one of the two lower level guys. The other surprised me a bit, though.
    Matthew Wood.
    (Side note: I believe three big leaguers hit those marks if a quick scan was correct: Freddie Freeman, Andrew Benintendi and Gleyber Torres.
  15. CheeseheadInQC

    Minor League stats to watch

    By CheeseheadInQC,


    Minor leagues
    With pitchers and catchers reporting, I thought I would celebrate by delving into one of my favorite topics, a random assemblage of minor league statistics. There were a lot to choose from, ranging from Darrien Miller's caught stealing percentage to a bunch of guys' strikeout rates, but here are three others to keep your eye on.
    1. Ground ball rate, Jadher Areinamo
    If you were to construct batted ball stats for a hitter without a ton of power, there is a decent chance that they would look similar to Areinamo's in the complex league last season.
    He was fifth in the ACL in line drive rate (25%) and split the others relatively evenly between ground balls (40%) and fly balls (35%). He hit the ball to all fields. He had the fourth lowest swinging strike rate in the ACL. He walked as often as he struck out. And he hit doubles, lots of doubles. Almost 10% of his plate appearances ended up in extra base hits.
    After his promotion to Carolina, many of those traits remained. He still hit a healthy number of line drives. His swinging strike rate was still down in Hendry Mendez territory. Two things did change, though. His ground ball rate jumped more than 15% and the doubles power disappeared.
    You might be wondering why I didn't pick one of the obvious choices for this stat: Garrett Mitchell, Hendry Mendez or, as Smichaelis9 mentioned in his top prospect list, Daniel Guilarte. The reason is because while the stats might measure success, each of those would likely require swing changes, so the changes could be seen before the results are (if Mendez could duplicate Areinamo's line drive and fly ball rates from the ACL he is probably a top 100 prospect).
    With Areinamo, it is not about the swing. The Complex League stats proved that. It is about continuing to make quality contact as he faces increasingly good pitching moving up the ladder. Restoring his ACL batted ball splits would be a good way putting him on track to maximize his potential.
    2. Walk rate, Jeferson Quero
    There seems to be one thing that is keeping some of the national prospect evaluators from being as high on Quero as some on this site (including obviously me).
    It is not his defense or intangibles. Those garner universal praise. 
    It isn't the hit tool. He made it up to high-A during his age-19 season without ever topping a 20% strikeout rate at any level. And it isn't his power, which seems more than adequate for the position.
    No, the question involves Quero's approach at the plate, namely if it is too aggressive. And, to be fair, the 2.4% walk rate after his promotion to high-A seems to bear that out.
    The thing is, it wasn't always this way. Before getting injured, Quero posted a 14.5% walk rate in the ACL, walking more than he struck out. But each move up the ladder has led to fewer walks.
    He has enough going for him that he might be able to become a legitimate starting catcher even with a walk rate closer to 5% than 10%. But to be a true impact player at the position rather than just one of the top 30, the walk rate probably needs to start climbing back closer to double digits, especially since, given how scarce .300 hitters are in general these days, he probably doesn't hit .313 in the big leagues like he did in Wisconsin.
    3. ISO, Gregory Barrios
    Remember all of those elements about Areinamo's batted ball stats that I praised earlier? What if I were to tell you that there was another Complex League infielder who in many ways mirrored Areinamo? Balanced LD/GB/FB rates? Check. Uses all fields? Check. Where Areinamo was fourth in the ACL in swinging strike rate, he was sixth. And to top it off, he is already one of the steadiest middle infield defenders in the Brewers' system.
    He also has yet to get a single point on our most recent prospect poll, and I believe I was highest on him, putting him at No. 38.
    So why isn't Gregory Barrios getting more prospect love? It comes down to the fact that if you added his ISOs from his first two seasons of pro ball together, you still wouldn't get to .1. Ultimately, he needs to at least develop doubles power to make a mark in a system that is suddenly flush with lower minor league infielders. If he manages to do that, though, it seems possible that he could be one of the bigger risers in the system this season.
  16. CheeseheadInQC
    Author's note: Because of ease of sorting for the various categories, I used Baseball Reference for team ages and Fangraphs for age season the individual players were in. Also, 2006 is used as a cutoff date for some of the items because that is how far back Fangraphs’ database goes.
    It is no secret that this year’s Carolina Mudcats squad has been young, filled with teens who came through the DSL pipeline — the kind of roster where, especially on offense, guys who can legally drink are the exception, not the rule.
    But did you know it might be historically young?
    The average Carolina batter is 19.8 years old, the youngest across all of low-A. The average Carolina pitcher is 21.0 years old, tied for the second youngest across low-A this year.
    When you combine those you have the youngest low-A team across all of baseball since at least 2010.
    The question is, is this the result of changes from within the organization or simply part of a trend in the aftermath of the contraction of a level of rookie ball and pushing back the date of the draft.
    The answer: Both
    The Brewers side
    Since 2006, a total of 10 guys in their 18-year-old seasons have played in low-A for the Brewers. Only two of those — Orlando Arcia and Mario Feliciano — came before 2021, and half have been this year alone.
    The biggest change, of course, has come from the Brewers’ Latin American signings, both in the quality of their play and the Brewers’ willingness to push them up the ladder.
    Between 2006 and 2019, I believe only five of the Brewers’ Latin American signings reached A-ball before their age-20 season, and only in the cases of Arcia and Pablo Abreu did it really feel deserved. The Brewers kind of had to move Gilbert Lara up eventually if only because of how much they paid him upon signing, and Milwaukee thought so much of Edgar Trejo and Luis Ramirez that both were released before the following season and never played in affiliate ball again.
    This year alone you have had Jackson Chourio, Jeferson Quero, Hendry Mendez, Luis Castillo, Jadher Areinamo, Eduardo Garcia, Hedbert Perez, Jheremy Vargas, Jesus Garcia, Yujanyer Herrera, Arielbi Gonzalez, Jeison Pena and Alexander Vallecillo.
    While the elimination of the one level of rookie ball might have sped their arrival up a bit, there is far more going on here than that. The summer 2019 and winter 2021 signing classes have been, simply put, the deepest in at least recent team history, pushing the average age down even as the number of high school players the team has drafted has declined.
    The league
    That’s not to say, of course, that they aren’t following a league-wide trend, at least on the hitting side.
    Between 2015 and 2019, the average age of a low-A hitter fluctuated between 21.4 and 21.6 years old. In 2022 it is 21.0. Similarly seven low-A teams have their hitters averaging 20.5 years old or younger in 2022, the same number as in the five years from 2015 and 2019 combined. Also, three of those came from one franchise: the 2017-19 Fort Wayne Tin Caps, a Padres affiliate during the time they were building their vaunted minor league system that has almost all been traded away. (Side note: the 2018 Tin Caps, which included current Brewers prospect Esteury Ruiz, is the only one since at least 2010 in which the hitters were younger than the Mudcats, checking in at 19.7 years old.)
    While there has been little if any perceptible leaguewide change in the ages as far as pitching goes, the hitting changes have been enough where the Down East Wood Ducks (Rangers) and Visalia Rawhide (Diamondbacks) rank just behind the Mudcats, with all three likely among the four youngest low-A teams since 2010.
    The future
    The question then becomes, is this sustainable for Milwaukee? In the short term, the answer appears to be yes. The longer term future, however, is hazier.
    To start with, not only do the Brewers have the youngest low-A team, but their their two ACL teams are part of what is basically a three-way tie with the Pirates’ FCL squad for the youngest complex league team.
    The following players who will be below the drinking age seem likely to spend some time with the Mudcats next season, not even considering the current DSL guys who could earn late-season promotions:
    19: Castillo, Areinamo, Herrera, Luke Adams, Dylan O’Rae, Daniel Guilarte, Gregory Barrios, Miguel Briceno
    20: Perez, Avina, Vargas, Vallecillo, Gonzalez, Garcia, Tayden Hall, Satchell Norman, Quinton Low, Patricio Aquino, Brailin Rodriguez, Jose Caballero
    Beyond that, it is going to depend on their continued ability to sign and develop players from Latin America. It is going to be difficult to top those two classes, and the most recent one seems, at first glance, to be a little on the weaker side compared to 2021 and 2019.
    Hopefully they can at least come close, however, because the more of those guys who are good enough to push their way up the pipeline early, the healthier it is for the system as a whole.
  17. CheeseheadInQC
    Because of my job (despite working in sports) and where I live (the epicenter of MLB blackout bizarreness), I get to actually watch very little baseball. It is one of the reasons I post mainly in the minor league forum, because a far smaller number get to see those with regularity. Following the sport I grew up obsessed with simply from box scores and statistics has given me an eye for oddities.
    The Brewers' best ACL hitter?
    When you look at the Brewers' ACL squads, among players with at least 50 plate appearances, the top three in wRC+ are Jace Avina, Jadher Areinamo and Luis Castillo. All obvious, all promoted.
    So who does that leave atop the leaderboard of current Brewers ACL players? A catcher with a .205 average and two extra-base hits on the season.
    Those who have noticed my mild obsession with his stat line can probably guess this is a Jhonnys Cabrera entry, and there is one thing that Jhonnys Cabrera has done consistently this year, and that is walk. His stat line has probably gotten less interesting in recent weeks, despite still putting the ball in play in fewer than half his plate appearances, he is no longer flirting with coupling a .500 on base percentage with a .100 batting average. That is to be expected. Even in the ACL that wasn't sustainable. And it is probably a good thing for Jhonnys' prospects as well. A .500 OBP sounds great, but until you show the ability to consistently put the ball in play, no one is going to see how it can translate moving up the ladder.
    The case of the disappearing line drives
    One of the things I've touted when discussing Jadher Areinamo's stat line is that he has shown a combination of patience (>10% walk rate), contact skills (<15% strikeout rate) and at least some power (>.1) that is fairly rare. Indeed, only 10 players across the complex leagues hit all three marks. Areinamo, however, is not the only Brewer in the ACL on that list.
    And you'd never guess who it is.
    For the second time in as many items, an ACL catcher features prominently. This time, however, it is Blayberg Diaz, who despite a 12.3% walk rate and three home runs under his belt this season has an OPS of only .593, largely thanks to a .169 BABIP. There might well be some bad luck in there, but I think I found another culprit.
    Blayberg Diaz, at least this year's version, does not hit line drives.
    Diaz's 5.6% line drive rate makes him the only player in the Brewer system below 9% on this stat.
    The thing is, this is new for Diaz. When he posted a far more respectable .770 OPS in the complex league last year, he was above 17% for a line drive rate. That might not be stellar, but it is a lot better than 5.6.
    The stats make it tough to justify giving him a full-season gig next year, especially with the JUCO kids likely taking two catching spots in Carolina, but at the same time, some of his underlying numbers make me wonder if he ends up becoming one of those catchers where the offense (at least, good enough for a catcher offense) just suddenly seems to click in out of nowhere. Martin Maldonado didn't look like he'd hit enough to stick around long even at AAA until he was in his final season before minor league free agency.
    This is why I like that the Brewers have the two ACL teams and why I hope they continue it. When the kids are that young and still in the process of becoming who they will be as ballplayers, having that extra roster spot or playing time could pay dividends down the road.
    No Small issue
    Want to know the difference between Ethan Small's stellar, from an ERA perspective at least, April versus the rest of his season thus far?
    In April, Small was a master at maneuvering his way out of self-created jams. The rest of the season, not so much.
    Small's ERA in innings in which he walked a hitter was 0.00 in April. In the months since, it is almost 9.00.
    Hopefully those walks start coming down so even if the ERA stays the same, the number of innings it applies to will be less.
  18. CheeseheadInQC
    With the MLB draft about a month away, I thought I would take a bit of time and examine some of the Brewers tendencies to predict what we can expect when the draft kicks off July 17.
    Catch a falling star         
    The Brewers have no problem stopping the fall of players many didn’t expect to be there.
    Garrett Mitchell, of course, was the classic example of this, but Sal Frelick was routinely being mocked above the Brewers’ pick as well.
    They also have had no problem grabbing guys who were expected to go much higher one year out, be it in the first round (Turang) or later (Hayden Cantrelle)
    Walking wounded
    While there are rumors the Brewers aren’t interested in any of the injured pitchers in the first this year, they have shown a willingness to grab guys coming off injuries early.
    Drew Rasmussen is perhaps the most noteworthy pitcher, but on the hitting side they’ve taken chances on David Hamilton, Gabe Holt and Freddy Zamora in the first 10 rounds.
    We’re going to call him a catcher
    This is the one I wish they would stop. At some point, it just begins to reek of hubris.
    Every year it seems, going back to K.J. Harrison in 2017, the Brewers take a player who isn’t a catcher or, in Harrison’s case, almost everyone agrees shouldn’t be a catcher. They followed with David Fry in 2018, Thomas Dillard in 2019, Zavier Warren in 2020 and Wes Clarke in 2021. Fry was the only one who lasted more than a season behind the plate, and last time I checked, he wasn’t catching in the Cleveland organization.
    If you think the guy is worth the pick regardless of if he sticks behind the plate, then fine, but paying any sort of premium for the ability to kind of look like a catcher if you squint might not be the best idea based on past precedent.
    Scouring the JUCOs
    Between 2017 and 2021, there were 36 JUCO pitchers drafted in the first 10 rounds. The Brewers accounted for five, or almost 1/7 of the picks, an average of one per draft.
    The Brewers have also had a fair amount of success mining JUCO staffs. Ashby and Bowden Francis give them two of the six who have made their major league debut from over that time period. And then you have Antoine Kelly looking promising in Wisconsin and Carlos Rodriguez developing into the ace of the Carolina staff.
    Whatever the Brewers have been doing as far as devoting scouting resources to this level, it seems to be working.
    On the other hand …
    Too often when discussing drafts, fans lean back on “rules” as to who the team would or, more often than not, wouldn’t draft.
    There are no rules when it comes to drafts, only tendencies.
    Even in the far more predictable NFL draft, you can see it. The Packers athletic “requirements” for offensive linemen make them so predictable that if you had told me after the first round of the draft this year that the Packers were going to take two offensive linemen before the end of Round 4, I would have needed three guesses, max, to get both picks. Despite this, however, you will still see the occasional Caleb Schlauderaff or Jamon Meredith who bucks the trend.
    So while, given past history, all of the things I mentioned earlier are more likely to happen than on average, perhaps the safest bet is that the Brewers will buck their tendencies, either not doing something mentioned here or taking a high schooler early. It’s draft time. Always expect at least some unexpected.
  19. CheeseheadInQC
    There is one number that stands out above all others for this year’s Carolina Mudcats.
    It isn’t their 6-4 record or their 5.21 ERA. It isn’t Eduardo Garcia’s OPS checking in at .969 thus far or Hedbert Perez’ being at .510. It isn’t Jeferson Quero’s .344 batting average or Hendry Mendez’s 25% walk rate. It isn’t Israel Puello’s 6:1 strikeout to walk rate or the fact that 11 members of the roster are still to young to legally drink.
    No. the most important number regarding the Mudcats is simply 15, the number of the Brewers’ own Latin American signings on the team’s opening day roster.
    ------
    When the Brewers dipped their toe back into the Dominican Summer League by sharing a team with the Orioles in 2009, to say the team was devoid of prospect star power would be an understatement. The most successful Brewers alum off that team was probably Leonard Lorenzo, who was notable for actually reaching full season ball, even if he did post a 6.13 ERA in Wisconsin in his sole season there.
    The following year wasn’t much better, with the best being a couple of guys like Jose Pena or Rolando Pascual who ended up topping out in High-A (and one, Rigoberto Almonte, who spent time in High-A before being demoted to the DSL).
    It wasn’t until the 2011 debuts of Orlando Arcia, Angel Ventura and Jorge Ortega that the Brewers actually had a member of the DSL team who ended up reaching AA. At least, though, there was progress.
    Then, however, it stagnated.
    In 2013 only two of the Brewers’ top 20 prospects on MLB Pipeline were from the Brewers’ own Latin American signings. By 2015, it was three of the top 30 and by 2017 had fallen to just one of the top 30, the already falling Gilbert Lara.
    And it was hurting the Brewers in relation to their NL Central peers. In 2017 the Reds and Pirates had five of their top 30 prospects from their own Latin American signings, but more noticeably, the Cubs and Cardinals had 10.
    The number of Latin American signings making the low-A opening day rosters ticked up slightly as the years went on, rising from three or fewer from 2010-2014 to, with the exception of two spikes, four or five from 2015 to 2021. Even in the two spike years – nine in 2015 and eight in 2018 – it felt slightly hollow. None of those players were listed on MLB Pipeline’s top 30.
    ----
    This year’s Carolina roster feels different.
    Sure there are a few guys filling end of the bench or middle relief roles, but they are far from the majority. In what might be a first for any full season squad in the organization’s history, the first six spots in the batting order in the first two games were filled by the club’s own Latin American signings. And it’s a group that includes plenty of prospect star power, with Quero and Perez typically found among the organization’s top 10 prospects and Mendez and Garcia among the top 20, with Jheremy Vargas getting occasional mentions as well.
    Miguel Segura, Alexander Cornielle and Edwin Jimenez also have a chance to become the first group of three of the Brewers’ Latin American signings to start 10 games at the Low-A level since the reintroduction of the DSL squad. Only twice have there been even two, and in one of those cases (2017 with Victor Diaz and Nattino Diplan) both of the pitchers were 23-year-olds in one of their final seasons of team control. Based on their youth and rookie ball success, you could argue that of those who came through the DSL complex, only Miguel Diaz and Abner Uribe entered full season ball with stronger prospect credentials than this trio.
    All in all, the Brewers currently have 11 of their own Latin American signings among their top 30 prospects. It feels as if the hope of where they could get to when they reopened the DSL facility is finally within sight.
    -----
    Now comes the tough part: Make sure this isn’t an anomaly. The numbers should stay high both because of the shorter draft and the strong performances by some of the recent signings. A mass substitution in a late spring training game that saw Jackson Chourio, Eduarqui Fernandez, Jadher Areinamo, Daniel Guilarte and Beyker Pastran enter with recent draft picks Quinton Low and Jace Avina seemed like a “say hello to the 2023 Carolina Mudcats event.” It wouldn’t be surprising to see Stiven Cruz, Domingo Mejia, Yujanyer Herrera and potentially a few others in the 2023 Mudcats rotation either.
    But the goal isn’t just numbers, it is development success. And in that area, hopefully this season is just the beginning.
  20. CheeseheadInQC

    In search of pitching breakouts

    By CheeseheadInQC,


    Minor leagues
    From the time that this site got me mildly obsessed with following the Brewers’ farm system, I have been fascinated with trying to predict breakout seasons.
    Specifically, pitching breakouts.
    Sometimes, like Max Lazar, Zack Brown, Evan Reifert and to some extent Bowden Francis, the breakouts happen.
    Other times … well … I thought Conor Harber and Karsen Lindell were intriguing breakout candidates right up to the point where I saw the notices that they’d been released. I also think I might be to blame for the demise of Preston Gainey’s career because every time I hyped him as a potential sleeper he suffered another injury.
    Damuelle covered a few (Lucas Erceg, James Meeker, Jolon Zhao, Lazar), but here are several other breakout candidates on the mound.
    Bring on the stats
    The Pioneer League was typically unkind to Brewers pitching prospects, and that went doubly so for the young ones.
    When the league ceased to be a part of affiliated ball it had already been more than a decade since the last Brewers starter 20-or-younger had a FIP of less than 4.00 in the league (Jake Odorizzi in 2009). In the interim only Devin Williams really came close.
    It had been that long since, in the system's top short-season level, a Brewers pitching prospect who couldn’t yet legally drink posted that kind of season.
    Until this past year.
    Before Alexander Cornielle earned a late-season promotion to Wisconsin, the 19-year-old posted marks of 13.64 K/9 and a 3.77 FIP.
    Even acknowledging that it is not an apples to apples comparison between the old Pioneer League and the current Arizona League, which features a mishmash of players who would have been in the old high and low rookie leagues, Cornielle was still among the ACL’s top five teenagers with at least 20 innings in both categories.
    Simply put, his season, for his age, deserves notice.
    His was not the only impressive season for a young Brewers starter in Arizona last season, though. You could make a case it wasn’t even the most impressive.
    Israel Puello spent much of the year on the Carolina Mudcats’ injured list, and when he finally made his debut in Arizona, the results weren’t always pretty as he shook off the rust.
    Once he did, however, the results weren’t just pretty.
    They were stop-you-in-your-tracks gorgeous.
    In his last four starts, totaling 18 innings, Puello struck out 25 while walking only two and surrendering just three runs. This is a rare case where the peripherals back up a 1.50 ERA.
    Just a hot streak? Perhaps. But it is enough to signal a possible breakout to me
    Tea leaves
    On the list of non-roster invitees to the Brewers’ 2021 spring training, nestled amid the usual crowd of minor league free agents, top prospects and returning triple-A players, was one name that produced a “Wait … what?” reaction.
    Jake Cousins’ pre-COVID year stats were eye-popping (39:2 strikeout to walk ratio), but they came as a 24-year-old in the low minors.
    Turns out, Cousins’ invitation MEANT something. The Brewers saw talent there.
    There aren’t nearly as many notable tea leaves to read this year. No shocking NRIs. The only pitching placement that would have been even mildly surprising at the start of camp was Miguel Segura starting off in Carolina.
    Scanning through photos from the Brewers early camp, though, along with the highly thought of prospects, guys coming back from injury (or in Tyler Gillies’ case, cancer) and catchers, because you need a lot of catchers at something like this, was one name I hadn’t expected to see: Robbie Baker.

    The later-season indy ball signing didn’t produce the kind of stat line that Meeker did, but the Brewers apparently saw enough where they at least wanted to see more. While two of the five later season indy ball additions got cut, Baker is joining Meeker in Wisconsin.

    Is this a stretch? Perhaps, but it is also perhaps a sign that the hopes for Baker should be dialed up at least slightly from the number approaching zero where they currently sit.
    Need for speed
    Another one-time indy league signing Zach Vennaro struggled after basically skipping three levels from 2019 to 2021, giving up almost a run an inning, allowing 10 more hits than innings pitched and walking more than five batters per nine innings.
    So why is Vennaro on this list? He struck out a bunch, can dial it up to 100 and when things are working, this can happen.
    Sometimes it is just that simple
×
×
  • Create New...