With Spring Training opening, I thought it was a good chance to take a look at some sleeper prospects who could rise up the prospect ranks this season. I decided to pick four position players and four pitchers and, as with last year, I am dividing this into three tiers.

The first tier are your regular sleepers, the guys who aren't gracing many top 20 or 30 lists, but have already established themselves as at least names to watch. The second tier are typically less established but have something to recommend them (I had Juan Baez in this tier last year). The third tier are kind of random shots in the dark. They might not even be in the organization's top 100 prospects, but there is something in their statistical profile that I find interesting.

Hitters

Tier 1: Ernesto Martinez

This pick was easily the most difficult one on the list. Every other category, I felt I had multiple options or knew exactly who I wanted. Heck, I even opted against including Jesus Rivero or Ryan Birchard as the tier 1 pitcher because they felt too easy. There were eight, maybe nine players who I'd consider to be in this tier given some of the constraints I set. It didn't help that of the two most obvious candidates, I eliminated one because having all four hitters coming from the DSL felt like overkill (Pedro Ibarguen) and the other because it felt like bandwagon jumping given that I think when he was picked I remarked that it sounded like they took another Devin Hairston (Ethan Murray). Of the remaining ones, none really stood out as saying "I should pick that guy."

So why Martinez? I think it is because I saw him play in person. He looks like a major leaguer. When the ball comes off his bat, it sounds like it was hit by a major leaguer. There was one mishit that was still traveling hard enough and with enough spin that it made me feel sorry for the second baseman. He also made improvements in his strikeout rate last season, which was among the reasons it took him until his final season before minor league free agency to secure a spot in AA.

He still pops up too much and I worry the strikeouts will return as the pitching gets better, but if he makes it work ...

Other players in this tier like Isaac Collins or Carlos Rodriguez are probably more likely to crack a big league roster some day, but none are as fun to dream on as Martinez.

Tier 2 Luiyin Alastre

My personal belief is that if you want to find a sleeper position player on a DSL roster, choose someone who plays a lot (preferably at a premium position) and strikes out very little. Two years ago, that was Jadher Areinamo. Last year it was Juan Baez. This year I believe it is Luiyin Alastre.

It's not a perfect correlation (Alastre played less shortstop than the other two), but in many other respects, Alastre's DSL campaign last season was better than theirs. He walked more (13.5%). He struck out even less (11%). His ISO (.088) was better than Areinamo and almost the same as Baez in the DSL. He might have gotten overshadowed by Rodriguez, Nadal, Ibarguen and Di Turi, but Alastre has earned the right to be considered a player to watch in his own right.

Tier 3 Roderick Flores & Tyler Rodriguez

Not getting to see most of the games, I base a lot of trying to pick break-out candidates on two things: statistics and organizational signals.

So here, in tier 3, we have two players. The first has great organizational signals, but concerning statistics. The second has a very interesting stat line, but pretty awful organizational signals.

If you were to guess who had the most plate appearances among Brewers DSL prospects last year, you might be able to correctly pick Yophery Rodriguez as No. 1 and Filippo Di Turi as No. 2. In third place, however, isn't Pedro Ibarguen or Demetrio Nadal or the aforementioned Luiyin Alastre. It was middle infielder Roderick Flores.

That, coupled with the fact he played most of his games at shortstop or second base, indicates the Brewers see something in Flores. So why isn't he up with Alastre in Tier 2? 

The answer? He struck out nearly 30% of the time.

That number obviously needs to come down, but there is at least one other reason for optimism with Flores. He was the youngest hitter on either Brewers DSL roster.

On the other hand, as far as DSL stat lines go, I like to see hitters who take walks, have a reasonable strikeout rate and display at least a modicum of pop (.1 ISO). Tyler Rodriguez did all three. He also needed a late season surge in playing time to get close to 100 plate appearances and played pretty much everywhere except shortstop, including a fair amount of first base. Considering he is listed at 5-10, 165, that probably speaks more to either defensive limitations or his place in the prospect pecking order than a future defensive home.

It wasn't all rosy with Rodriguez's bat. If Fangraph's DSL batted ball data is to be believed, he was really pull-happy and popped out a lot. Still, however, the ability to put a couple of balls into the bleachers while posting solid strikeout and walk totals makes his stat line a lot more interesting than most DSL prospects who get his level of playing time.

Pitchers

Tier 1: Harold Chirino

The Brewers are not lacking for potential breakout pitchers. Even excluding the low-hanging fruit pair I mentioned earlier and Alexander Cornielle, who I've written about before, there were plenty of potential choices for this tier.

So why Chirino over Quinton Low, Cameron Wagoner or a host of other relievers? If he gets an opportunity (the Brewers aren't lacking for relief options), I believe he has a chance to impact the big league club this year.

After an up-and-down 2022 season, the Brewers brought Chirino back on a minor league deal and he brought some additional prospect intrigue thanks to reports of a velocity bump. And he did his best to show that those plaudits were deserved, absolutely dominating at AA early in the season. He looked like an early promotion to AAA was likely.

And then he got hurt.

Chirino went on the injured list May 24 and never came back off of it.

The Brewers brought him back on another minor league free agent contract, though, with a big league camp invite signaling this is more than just allowing him to complete his rehab. The Brewers are no strangers to relievers taking a meandering path to the big leagues, and Chirino appears as if he could be the latest example.

Tier 2: Russell Smith & Daniel Corniel

At first these two might not seem to have much in common. Corniel is a 6-foot righty, Smith is a 6-7 lefty. Smith was a second round pick, Corniel was a late addition to the Brewers 2022 international signing class. Corniel started last season while Smith pitched out of the bullpen.

They do have a few things in common, however. They posted somewhat unsightly ERAs, they both have shown the ability to strike hitters out at a high clip, and they both saved their best work for the end of the season.

In a league in which hitting ruled, Corniel's ACL season was pretty erratic. In 11 total outings, he gave up four or more earned runs four times (all in four or fewer innings). He also gave up one or no earned runs six times, including a pair of five-inning, eight strikeout gems. The latter half of his season was particularly impressive as he posted a sub-3.00 ERA with 13.3 K/9 over his last five outings.

I wouldn't be surprised if Corniel ended up back in the ACL this year, but I also wouldn't be shocked if he ended up solidifying a spot in the Carolina starting rotation.

For Smith, the strikeouts had been there all season. In fact, his 10.4 K/9 in August and September was actually down from his earlier work in Biloxi. So what changed to the point where he had a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP in August and September combined after posting unsightly 7.00+ ERAs in both June and July? Two things: First, he cut his walk rate down to a decidedly manageable 2.5/9. Second, he did a much better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark.

It is often said that tall pitchers sometimes need more development time. Smith's pre-draft scouting report indicated he might be an exception. That obviously has not been the case, but that doesn't mean he can't take the more common path and carve out a role in the Brewers' bullpen in the coming years.

Tier 3: Ranwell Smith

If player development is above all about improvement, then Smith quietly had a very successful 2023. A year after scuffling as one of the youngest Brewers DSL pitchers to a 6.20 ERA and walking more than he struck out, Smith put together a much better encore. His K/9 jumped to nearly 10. His walks were still too high at 5.3/9, but even that marked a decided improvement.

Smith is caught in an uncomfortable spot. The greater success of a lot of his teammates last season might make it difficult to squeeze onto the ACL roster, and the track record of guys who spend three years in the DSL isn't exactly great.

His second season, however, gives hope, however, that a greater breakthrough might be within sight. I wouldn't have held that much optimism after his 2022.

Your Turn

I've made my picks. Now it is your turn. Which Brewers prospects who aren't typically listed in the top 30 now do you think will move up the rankings this season?