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Where Have All the Good Outfielders Gone? Hint: Not the National League


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With all of the hype that the current young crop of Brewers outfielders got as they moved through the Milwaukee system, it is easy to look at the production that the Brewers have gotten from their outfielders this season and be, well, a bit underwhelmed.

Joey Wiemer hasn't hit. Garrett Mitchell has been hurt. Sal Frelick is struggling to get his OPS above .700.

And as for Jackson Chourio, well, I guess at least he's been better than fellow hyped rookies Jackson Holliday and Colt Keith.

I've even seen some suggestions that the Brewers try to trade for a bat to fortify their outfield.

The problem with that? There's going to be a long line. A very long line, and from the National League alone, of teams more desperate than the Brewers.

How can that be? How dire is the National League outfield situation?

Well, for all of what was said above, the Brewers still have the league's second best outfield.

The State of the Outfield in the National League

So just how bad is the National League outfield situation? Here are your current top 6 in Fangraphs WAR, otherwise known as your theoretical All-Star starters and reserves.

Two converted infielders on the same team, one of whom is probably only playing on the grass because his team went through a couple of offseasons in which they tried to sign every infielder on the planet. A player who missed much of May with an injury. A power hitter whose numbers had been declining as he entered his 30s. A player who even his supporters label as a great fourth outfielder. And finally, a formerly hyped prospect who has only played about half a season after starting the year in the minors because his rookie year did not go well.

The best outfielder in the National League East is still by general consensus not playing up to his contract.

All that adds up to only three National League teams averaging 1 fWAR per outfield position thus far. You've got the Padres, who have the best outfield in the National League thanks to the aforementioned converted infielders Fernando Tatis and Jurickson Profar, plus a passable rookie campaign so far from Jackson Merrill.

The Cubs are the third, averaging exactly one fWAR per position thanks more to a bunch of average performances than any one star (Mike Tauchman has, believe it or not, been their best performer).

And that leaves the Brewers in second. Did you spot the two Brewers among the all-star candidate list? That's right, as of right now, by fWAR at least, Blake Perkins is the fifth best outfielder in the National League. Yelich, despite his injury, is third. Even Frelick checks in at 25th, so above average for a third outfielder.

And it isn't just the defense, although the Brewers do top the league in outfield defense by Fangraphs' metrics. They have also had the second best outfield offense, just ahead of the Cubs, Mets and Giants.

And it isn't just the dregs of the league who are struggling. The Dodgers' outfield production has only been saved by the one-year deal they gave to Teoscar Hernandez (the aforementioned slugger). Their other outfielders I believe have combined for .1 fWar. Not 1 fWAR, .1 fWAR. At least they have Hernandez. The Phillies' group, despite Brandon Marsh's passable start, hasn't even combined for 1 fWAR total. Pre-injury Ronald Acuna had accounted for more than half of the Braves' WAR total thus far, meaning they are in a similar boat to the Phillies going forward.

Why Is This Happening?

The obvious answer is that a combination of injuries and position changes have robbed the NL outfield of many of its marquee names. Mookie Betts is now a shortstop, Bryce Harper plays first and Acuna, well, won't be playing the rest of this year.

Looking deeper, however, if you look at an old list of outfield prospects who should be in their early-to-mid primes, you'll see very little production this year, even in the American League. I went through all of the outfield prospects on the MLB Pipeline 2020 top 100 prospect lists, and the production is rather scant. Heliot Ramos obviously had a great May and JJ Bleday, Riley Greene and Marsh have been somewhere between good and very good, but most of them have been having mediocre to poor seasons. There will be some course correction, obviously. Julio Rodriguez is unlikely to remain on the wrong side of middling and Corbin Carroll is unlikely to stay replacement level. For now, however, the production is not there.

What Does This Mean?

For Brewers fans, I think there are two main takeaways here.

1. Barring injury, I expect other teams to be far more aggressive seeking outfielders at the deadline than Milwaukee will be.

2. Let's start writing in Blake Perkins on the All-Star ballot. For right now, at least, he deserves it.

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Paul

Posted

Yes, Perkins has been plating very steady, reliable baseball!  And, Chourio seems to be turning a corner.  I love to watch Frelick - if only he had more line drive power.  Perhaps Mitchell can provide dome power when he returns.

duewizard

Posted

Perkins has been one of the big surprises of the year, building on his performances from last year.

Chourio seems to have turned a corner in June. Hopefully he can build on it and have a strong second half. 

ClosetBrewerFan

Posted

Amazing to believe the Brewers OF is as strong offensively as it is (relative to league OFs).  That tells me the only position to upgrade offensively would be at 1b.  And with Black at AAA, the upgrade would need to be significantly better than him.

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